The Future of Mobility by Hunter Lovins
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Transcript of The Future of Mobility by Hunter Lovins
Natural Capitalism Solutions
T H E F U T U R E O F M O B I L I T Y
© NCS 2009
I love motors...
The world is changing
Business-As-Usual cannot endure
Businesses, governments and raceways will either drive change in ways that allow companies and economies to flourish or they will be forced respond to unrelenting crises and hope for the best.
Global Drivers of Change
• Carbon constrained world
• Volatile energy prices
• The sustainability imperative
• Loss of ecosystem services
• Chindia
• Economic instability
• Water
• Food
Toyota’s Chief Engineer, Taiichi Ohno:
“Prior to the oil crisis [of the 1970s], when I talked to people about Toyota’s manufacturing technology and production system, I found little interest. When rapid growth stopped, however, it became very obvious that a business could not be profitable using the conventional American mass production system that had worked so well for so long.”
“The Oil Crisis Opened our Eyes” Toyota Production System, 1978.
Toyota’s Chief Engineer, Taiichi Ohno:
“Prior to the oil crisis [of the 1970s], when I talked to people about Toyota’s manufacturing technology and production system, I found little interest. When rapid growth stopped, however, it became very obvious that a business could not be profitable using the conventional American mass production system that had worked so well for so long.”
“The Oil Crisis Opened our Eyes” Toyota Production System, 1978.
2006 Profits ($B)
R. James Woolsey’s solar powered plug-in-hybrid has a bumper sticker reading:
“Osama bin Ladin hates my car.”
IEA
2007: IEA report: World could face oil shortage within five years
2009: Whistleblowers: IEA deliberately understating how close the world may be to running out of oil - ‘imperative not to anger the Americans’ or cause panic
Dec 2009: IEA Chief Economist: “...in three, four years' time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline... which is, of course, not good news from a global-oil-supply point of view. ”
WikiLeaks cables show that Saudi Arabia's oil reserves have been exaggerated by as much as 40%, or 300
billion barrels.
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves
24 February $120 a barrel Libyan revolution
3 March $200 a barrel if Algeria goes offline Economist
7 March $250 a barrel if oil tankers and reserves in Libya hit
Alan Duncan: UK Int’l Development Minister
Time to reconsider?
Why do we drive…?
Status Fun
Schedule Cargo
Transportation – we’ve come a long way
Transport … carrying:
Food Stuff
People
from one place to another
Do we need to get into a car every day?
• The average car trip is less than 16 km (10 miles)
• Design better transportation systems
• Create walkable neighborhoods
Transportation
• 27% of all automobile miles traveled are incurred going to and from work
• 78% are driven in single-occupancy vehicles (SOV)
Transport costs
• Traffic congestion
• Air quality
• Collisions
• Infrastructure and Maintenance
• Environmental Costs An average parking space costs roughly $6,000 per year
GHG Emissions
• Transportation sector is the fastest growing in terms of climate impact.
- 13% of global greenhouse gases (GHG)
• At current rate, emissions will increase 57% worldwide by 2030.
- 80% of this in developing countries
Auto Deaths
In countries that are free of war, the largest cause of violent death is usually traffic fatalities
Young people have more car accidents than almost any other age group
Accidents raise health care costs, insurance rates, and lost work productivity
We’ve reduced our social interactions to aggressive competition through windscreens for square meters of asphalt
Road rage
Next wave of transportation innovation should:
Decrease congestion
Foster accessibility and equity
Enhance livelihoods
Support walkable communities
Enhance pedestrian mobility
Improve environmental impact
Decrease cost
How much could you save by sharing a car?
Total cost of ownership, over $30,000
• Average annual car insurance $1,837
• Annual operating costs $6,000 –
$10,000
• Cost of new mid-size sedan $20,000
Carsharing
• Use a vehicle when you need it, without the annual cost of ownership
• Carsharing programs in operation in 600 cities around the world.
Time to change the way we fund transportation
• Gas Tax
• Electronic Tolling
• Variable Pricing
• Regional Partnerships
• Incentivize Public & Alternative Transit
• Bike Lanes
Vauban, Germany car-free city
70% of Vauban’s 5,500 residents do not own cars, and 57% sold a car to move there.
UK transit policy
In 2000, Britain began comprehensive effort to discourage car use by requiring that new development be accessible by public transit.
“Development comprising jobs, shopping, leisure and services should not be designed and located on the assumption that the car will represent the only realistic means of access for the vast majority of people”
Masdar- The Source – Abu Dhabi
City of 50,000
Car free
Zero waste
Passively cooled
Solar canopies
Center for renewable energy research
1,500 clean tech start-ups focusing on solar, wind and hydrogen power, carbon reduction and management, sustainable development, education, manufacturing
Congestion Tax
Vehicles entering city centers are charged based on real-time pricing
- Reduce traffic congestion
- Improve air quality
- Generates revenue
- Lowers GHG emissions
Bio-Fuels
Our need for oil is fast becoming a hunger problem
Food Riots
Competing for scarce land
Growing food and water scarcity
33 countries around the world face potential social unrest due to spikes in food prices.
The recent spikes in food prices have left nations volatile, with ensuing food riots
World Bank President
Robert Zoellick
Food riots fear after rice price hits a high
World and regional ethanol production
• Expanded hybrid fleet by 50% to over 250 vehicles
• Improve fuel economy by 44%
• Decrease particulate matter by 96%
• Reduce smog-causing (NOx) emissions by 75%
FedEx Hybrid Vehicles
Federal agreement with 13 automakers to reach 54.5 MPG by 2025.
Equals a fuel savings of $8,000 per vehicle, or $1.7 trillion nationally.
Reduces oil consumption by 2.2 million barrels a day, this is half of what we import from OPEC.
Fuel Efficiency Standard
• Of the 41 million cars in the Germany, only 1,452 are electric.
• German government goal to put million electric vehicles on roadways by 2020.
• Government investing €500m ($705m) to achieve this.
Electric Cars … the future of the auto industry?
Fiskar Karma with PV roof
Renault/ BMW concept car
VW E-Up electric car 2013 – 130 km range, 1 hr to 80% charge
Challenge: lithium batteries
Japanese are recycling the lithium
Shai Agassi Better Place – renewable electric cars
dailyenergyreport.com
NASCAR: Mainstream Green
NASCAR is the top spectator sport in the U.S., with an estimated 75 million followers
The No. 2 regular season sport on TV.
Potential for helping to make “green” more mainstream.
Has the largest recycling program in sports.
Recycled over: - 1,000 tons of paper/cans
- 121,000 tires
- 180,000 gallons of oil
Made possible by partnerships with:
- Coca-cola
- Coors Light
- Freightliner
- Goodyear
NASCAR Green Initiatives
dailyenergyreport.com
NASCAR Green Initiatives
Participating raceways plant 10 trees for each green flag that drops.
Last year over 1000 trees were planted.
Plans to expand the program to offset 100% of GHG emissions from racing.
dailyenergyreport.com
NASCAR Green Initiatives
All races are now run on 15% ethanol.
Comes from corn grown in the U.S.
Reduces GHG emissions by 20%.
The fuel blend increases horsepower 6-8%.
dailyenergyreport.com
NASCAR Green Initiatives
“ . . . the switch to ethanol might be the most important step in achieving an ancillary benefit — attracting new sponsors in the green economy to cash-strapped teams hurting for funding since the onset of the recession.”
- CEO / Chairman Brian France
dailyenergyreport.com
NASCAR Green Initiatives "Safe. Green. Smart. Quality. These are the four pillars of Ford Motor Company and it's our mission that we are committed to on a daily basis . . . . and we applaud NASCAR for taking this important step toward an ethanol blend of fuel.”
- Jamie Allison, Director of Ford
North America Motorsports
“It's terribly important to car manufacturers that we're in step with the strategic thinking they're doing right now.
- CEO / Chairman Brian
France
NASCAR had trouble requiring cars to use 4-cylinder engines because
“lower-revving engines would
detract from the races’ aural
spectacle”.
Instead, race cars will use 6-cylinder engines in 2013, which will achieve 35% better fuel efficiency than currently used V-8 engines.
Formula One cars are also switching from 2.4 litre V8s to 1.6 litre turbocharged V6s.
NASCAR Green Initiatives
NASCAR and Other Tracks
Select IndyCar Series races run on 100% field-grade ethanol.
IZOD IndyCar Series installing solar electric systems and educating fans on solar power during the 2011 season.
Pocono Raceway in PA has a 25-acre solar farm – the world’s largest solar-powered sports facility.
Installed a 1,700 panel, 350 kilowatt solar array
- Provides 41% of energy
Waterless urinals reduce water consumption by 36%, and landscaping uses recycled and reclaimed water
The raceway has 3,000 sheep to help maintain the facility’s grasses and fire lanes
Infineon Raceway
Recognized by State of California for recycling over 141 tons of material.
Held first zero-emission motorcycle race on American soil.
15 owl boxes encourage owls to nest and hunt for rodents – reducing the need for pesticides and other pest-controlling poisons
Infineon Raceway
Global Biodiversity Outlook Three - GBO-3
I am a professor of a discipline that did not exist when I went to college
Ray Anderson
What is the business case for ending life on earth?
The best way to predict the future is to invent it
www.natcapsolutions.org www.unreasonableinstitute.org
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