The future is all about resilience

Say buh bye tothe status quo

the future is all about resilience

Asher Miller : Post Carbon InstituteSaturday, September 5, 2009

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Hi everyone. My name is Asher Miller. I’m the Executive Director of a nonprofit think tank based here in Sonoma County called Post Carbon Institute, which is focused on the convergence of economic, energy, and environmental crises. I’ve actually been asked here to talk about the Transition Town movement, with which I’m also involved as a member of the board of the US hub, Transition US.

But before I do any of that... <NEXT SLIDE>


I want to tell you a little story about reindeer. <NEXT SLIDE>

St. Matthew Island


• US coast guard set up outpost on SMI in 1944 / • 29 reindeer brought as emergency food supplies• left in ideal conditions a short while later when USCG abandoned island• 1957, biologist David Klein went to see impact of reindeer • He and assistant discovered something incredible<NEXT SLIDE>

reindeer on St. Matthew Island

1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s

26 42

1,350

6,000

source: Journal of Wildlife ManagementSaturday, September 5, 2009

• They counted 1350 reindeer, 46 times original number• Came back six years later to discover 6,000 reindeer and a lot of destruction• 3 years later they found only 42 left / only one male ... by 80’s all dead• extreme example of overshoot ... when because of food/conditions populations grow and grow...<NEXT SLIDE>


... and grow• at risk of fear-mongering, think it’s instructive to look at human population growth<NEXT SLIDE>

1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Now

global population

250 million

6.7 billion

100 million

500 million

source: wikipediaSaturday, September 5, 2009

• in last 2500 years (tiny in course of human history), population grew 67 fold• vast majority of growth in the last century• on pace for 1 billion new people every 10 years• key concept: the RATE seems low ... 2%/year at height... only 1.1% now<NEXT SLIDE>


global population

250 million

6.7 billion

100 million

500 million

source: wikipedia

1% of 1,000 = 10


• 1% of a number like 1,000 is relatively small<NEXT SLIDE>


global population

250 million

6.7 billion

100 million

500 million

source: wikipedia

1% of 1,000 = 10

1% of 1 billion = 10 million


• but 1% of 1 billion is ... well, a lot• key concept: exponential growth• not just true of population...<NEXT SLIDE>

1900 1950 1970 1990 2000 2025

water withdrawal

*


• seeing exponential growth in fresh water use...<NEXT SLIDE>

1900 1950 1970 1990 2000 2025

water withdrawal

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

marine fish catch

*


• ... fish stocks ...<NEXT SLIDE>

1900 1950 1970 1990 2000 2025

water withdrawal

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

marine fish catch

*

1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005

world real GDP


• ... the growth of the world economy...<NEXT SLIDE>

1900 1950 1970 1990 2000 2025

water withdrawal

1750 1850 1920 1955 1975 1995

carbon dioxide emissions

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

marine fish catch

*

1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005

world real GDP


• ... and carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere ...• a pattern has clearly emerged ...<NEXT SLIDE>


... we’re on a run away train of our own making<NEXT SLIDE>


... back to our reindeer friends• biologists estimate that the reindeer population on St. Matthew grew to 3-4 times the population density of what the island could sustainably support• key concept: carrying capacity• so how are we doing?<NEXT SLIDE>

1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

how many planets do we need?

um, anyone else worried about this?

1.6 earths

source: Global Footprint NetworkSaturday, September 5, 2009

• over the last 50 years scientists have been trying to answer this question• using a range of data groups like Global Footprint Network have been tracking the capacity of the earth to maintain us• we’re well on our way to needing 2 planets• no biggie right? <NEXT SLIDE>


• when the reindeer on SMI found themselves with no predators and yummy, yummy lichen they must have thought they won the lottery• but guess what, so have we• what’s our food source?<NEXT SLIDE>

photo by Sebastião Salgado Saturday, September 5, 2009

•this stuff <NEXT SLIDE>

d

d

d

oil

coal

natural gasSaturday, September 5, 2009

• well, actually this stuff... oil, coal, and natural gas• hundreds of millions of years of compressed organic energy that we could easily dig up and burn<NEXT SLIDE>


• why keep using this stuff when we could use...<NEXT SLIDE>


• this stuff!• it’s estimated that 1 gallon of oil has the same energy as a person working full time, forty hours a week, for 2 1/2 months• even at record high prices last summer - $147/barrel - that’s still only $3.50• for 10 weeks of labor, not one hour!<NEXT SLIDE>


• key concept: net energy for societies• estimated that hunter/gathers & agrarian societies operated with a 10 to 1 EROEI• for every 1 person involved in food or heat production, 10 others could do something else• but oil, especially in the early days, had a 100 to 1 EROEI• this led to unimaginable advances and innovation<NEXT SLIDE>


• and in the blink of a human eye, everything changed<NEXT SLIDE>

US energy consumption

1705 1755 1805 1855 1905 1955 2005source: Energy Information Administration

biomass (wood)

natural gas

nuclear

coal

petroleum

hydro

29,308 terawatts


• our appetite for the stuff was simply insatiable ...<NEXT SLIDE>

world energy sources

35%

21%

25%10%

6.6%2.2%

0.2%

petroleum natural gas

nuclear

coal

hydro

biomass

source: British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy

renewables


• and still is... even more so then ever<NEXT SLIDE>


• in 1971, landmark Limits to Growth report• first to use computer modeling to forecast impacts of growth• attacked or ignored at the time• report is now understood to be remarkably prophetic<NEXT SLIDE>

d

d

dd

d

dd

d

d

d

d

d

d


• my belief & belief of colleagues at PCI is that we’ve run out of track• convergence of a number of crises ... LIST THEM ...• each would test us ... together they will completely reshape our world<NEXT SLIDE>


• ... lets pretend we could go back in time • ... and if we could speak reindeerese... and you tried to warn those reindeer on SMI to slow down, maybe not have so many kids, not eat so much of that lichen... • do you think they’d have listened?• do you blame us for not? <NEXT SLIDE>

climate change

peak oil


• originally, Transition Towns aimed to address two of these critical issues ... climate change and peak oil• not going to get into these in detail• assume they already understand climate change and• RH -- world’s foremost peak oil educator -- will be presenting to them in a few weeks / will leave to him • but want to say one thing that relates to both issues:• we’re now looking in the rear view mirror <NEXT SLIDE>


• in terms of climate change, growing consensus that we need to go carbon negative in order to avert catastrophe

<NEXT SLIDE>


1750 1825 1900 1930 1955 1970 1985 2000source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

8 million metric tons from fossil fuels

CO2 l

evels

rise f

rom 27

5 to 3

90 pa

rts pe

r milli

on


• currently at 390 ppm• negotiations have largely focused on targets of 450 or 550 ppm• at 450 ppm, Hansen and others say we have a 50-50 shot of tipping into hell<NEXT SLIDE>


1750 1825 1900 1930 1955 1970 1985 2000source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

8 million metric tons from fossil fuels

CO2 l

evels

rise f

rom 27

5 to 3

90 pa

rts pe

r milli

on

350 ppm


• Hansen now warning that we need to be at 350 ppm• that’s BELOW current levels• McKibben & 350.org on campaign to get this number adopted• McKibben here on Oct. 2nd / Day of Action on Oct. 24th<NEXT SLIDE>


• In terms of peak oil, also a growing consensus that we’re looking in the rear view mirror<NEXT SLIDE>

world oil production

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

81.8 million barrels a day

source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Natural GasSaturday, September 5, 2009

• likely reached global peak oil production last summer• leave it to RH to explain what this means• of all the issues that have me worried, this keeps me up most at night• into this fray comes a group of people like you and me trying to face these issues head on... but with a twist<NEXT SLIDE>


... with a smile<NEXT SLIDE>

what is a Transition Town?

boundaries defined by residents


• So what is a transition town?• could be a small town, a neighborhood, a city, an island...<NEXT SLIDE>



lives within ecological bounds


• lives in balance with the ecosystem around it...• renewable energy / food , etc.<NEXT SLIDE>




has a re-localized economy


• opposite of our current globalized economies• food, energy, services/goods produced locally/regionally<NEXT SLIDE>





healthier & happier than before


• Transition folks believe that our current way of life leads to high levels of dissatisfaction and poor health• opportunity to feel more connected / more reward for a day’s work , etc.<NEXT SLIDE>





healthier & happier than before

is resilient


• it’s not about avoiding difficulty• it’s about having the skills and flexibility to manage • key concept: resilience<NEXT SLIDE>

re·sil·ience:an ability to recover from or adjust

easily to misfortune or change


• key concept: resilience• entering difficult & uncertain times• need redundancy• need new/old skills• need a mentality<NEXT SLIDE>

core beliefs

transition is inevitable


• lives & communities are changing, whether we like it or not• better to embrace than ignore or deny<NEXT SLIDE>

core beliefs


need to act for ourselves


• waiting for magic solutions -- technology -- or leadership from the federal government or international community is a dangerous game• the transition looks different in every community / responses need to come from within<NEXT SLIDE>

core beliefs



can’t go it alone


• a human response is flight / self defense• best individual preparation is working together<NEXT SLIDE>

core beliefs



can’t go it alone

requires an inner transition too


• transition requires as much a cultural / psychological change as a physical one<NEXT SLIDE>

core beliefs



can’t go it alone

requires an inner transition too

our collective genius will guide us


• each community and individual has the capacity to make this transition• we need to harness that collective genius and creativity<NEXT SLIDE>

photo: TED/James Duncan DavidsonSaturday, September 5, 2009

ORIGINS • started by this guy - Rob Hopkins• permaculture teacher at Kinsale College in Ireland• worked with his students to try to answer the question: how do we transition this community to be free from dependence on fossil fuels<NEXT SLIDE>


• developed a strategic process for “energy descent”• Rob then moved to Totnes, England and carried the ideas with him<NEXT SLIDE>

photo: flickr/Laurie CateSaturday, September 5, 2009

• in some ways, Totnes was the ideal community to start the Transition Town movement• College town / very educated & motivated about sustainability• had world renowned sustainability speakers coming to Shumaker College• folks like Richard Heinberg were introduced to TT and helped spread the model to other places they went• RH almost single handedly spread TT to NZ<NEXT SLIDE>


• Rob then wrote the Transition Handbook• great step-by-step introduction and guide for setting up a TT• movement quickly spread<NEXT SLIDE>

38 in US

spread of Transition Towns208 “official” initiatives


• less than 3 years later• over 200 “official” towns / almost 40 in US• hundreds of other “mullers”<NEXT SLIDE>

why it works

hope & optimism


• optimism is the key ingredient to it’s spread, IMHO<NEXT SLIDE>

why it works

hope & optimism

a collective response


• all about bringing people together<NEXT SLIDE>

why it works

hope & optimism


great tools & resources


• the Transition Handbook, wiki, videos, trainings, etc.<NEXT SLIDE>

why it works

hope & optimism



flexibility & openness


• very loose model / no fixed expectations• invites experimentation<NEXT SLIDE>

why it works

hope & optimism




an end product


• focus on the development of an Energy Descent Action Plan<NEXT SLIDE>

why it works

hope & optimism




an end product

a step by step process


• the 12 “steps”<NEXT SLIDE>


• the 12 “steps” or “ingredients” are a way of building momentum and laying the foundation for growth of TT<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#1: start an initiating group


• starts with the formation of an initiating group THAT PLANS FOR ITS OWN DEMISE<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#2: raise awareness


• initial, and most important, focus is to raise awareness in the community• film screenings, speakers, fun events...<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#3: lay the foundations


• reach out to people already working on elements of the transition• not about reinventing the wheel but bringing people and knowledge together<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#4: organize a “great unleashing”


• “great unleashing” is the official kick-off event• want to generate big buzz and excitement in the community• make sure you don’t do it too soon<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#5: form working groups


• working groups focused on specific issues like energy, food, business, “heart & soul,” etc.• develop plans and projects specifically in that area of focus<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#6: use open space


• generate ideas and buy in by hosting “open space” meetings<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#7: develop visible projects


• begin manifesting the work of Transition• make it visible and tangible• this is a community garden at the Capitol in Denver<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#8: facilitate the “great reskilling”


• we’re least generally skilled generations in human history• need to move away from specialization to hands-on knowledge• how to grow food / repair things / build , etc.• this includes “green jobs”<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#9: reach out to local government


• engage local government & planners• even if they ignore you at first, you want them to turn to TT when things go awry<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#10: honor the elders


• last 30 years in particular, a very comfortable / individualistic generation• learn from elders who have gone through difficult times (Great Depression) and collective action (WWII)• have skills / memories of value• conduct oral histories<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#11: let it go where it wants


• hold to core beliefs & vision but don’t hold to the journey• impossible to know where / how events will lead us (back to concept of resilience)<NEXT SLIDE>

12 steps

#12: create an energy descent plan


• develop an EDAP• EDAP is really just the end of the beginning• the real work begins when the plan is put into practice<NEXT SLIDE>

cheerful disclaimerJust in case you were under the impression that Transition is a process defined by people who have all the answers, you need to be aware of a

We truly don't know if this will work. Transition is a social experiment on a massive scale.

What we are convinced of is this:

• if we wait for the governments, it'll be too little, too late• if we act as individuals, it'll be too little• but if we act as communities, it might just be enough, just

in time.


• this is the thing I appreciate most about the Transition Town movement<NEXT SLIDE>

www.transitionus.org

www.postcarbon.org


http://www.transitionus.org




The future is all about resilience

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