"The Checklist" - 9c Construction: time series strategies - Option based portolio insurance
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Transcript of "The Checklist" - 9c Construction: time series strategies - Option based portolio insurance
The “Checklist” > 9c. Dynamic allocation: time series strategies > Option-based portfolio insurancePayoff design
Payoff design
The option-based portfolio insurance (OBPI) strategy attains thedesired payoff by suitably trading the risky and the low-risk instruments.
Step 1. Specify an arbitrary payoff at thorV stratthor ≡ g(V risky
thor) (9c.40)
Call option
g(v) ≡ max(v − kstrk , 0) (9c.41)
ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Mar-28-2017 - Last update
The “Checklist” > 9c. Dynamic allocation: time series strategies > Option-based portfolio insurancePartial differential equation
Partial differential equation
Step 2. Solve the partial differential equation
∂gstrat
∂t+∂gstrat
∂vrrf v+
1
2
∂2gstrat
∂v2(σ(t, v))2 −gstratrrf = 0 (9c.42)
≥ 0 risk-free rate ≥ 0 volatility
with boundary condition
gstrat(thor , v) ≡ g(v), for all v (9c.43)
payoff function
ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Mar-28-2017 - Last update
The “Checklist” > 9c. Dynamic allocation: time series strategies > Option-based portfolio insurancePartial differential equation
Partial differential equation
Step 2. Solve the partial differential equation
∂gstrat
∂t+∂gstrat
∂vrrf v+
1
2
∂2gstrat
∂v2(σ(t, v))2−gstratrrf = 0 (9c.42)
Arithmetic Brownian motion
Suppose that• V risky
t ← arithmetic Brownian motion (9c.5)⇒ σ(t, v) ≡ σ• rrf ≡ 0
• g (v) ≡ max(v − kstrk , 0
)Then the solution reads
gstrat (t, v) = cBachelier (σ,v − kstrk√thor − t
, thor − t) (9c.46)
Bachelier function (16.29)
ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Mar-28-2017 - Last update
The “Checklist” > 9c. Dynamic allocation: time series strategies > Option-based portfolio insurancePartial differential equation
Partial differential equation
Step 2. Solve the partial differential equation
∂gstrat
∂t+∂gstrat
∂vrrf v+
1
2
∂2gstrat
∂v2(σ(t, v))2−gstratrrf = 0 (9c.42)
Geometric Brownian motion
Suppose that• V risky
t ← geometric Brownian motion (9c.8)⇒ σ(t, v) ≡ σv• rrf > 0
• g (v) ≡ max(v − kstrk , 0
)Then the solution reads
gstrat (t, v) = cBS(v, rrf , σ,ln v − ln kstrk√
thor − t, thor − t) (9c.48)
Black-Merton-Scholes function (16.32) moneyness
ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Mar-28-2017 - Last update
The “Checklist” > 9c. Dynamic allocation: time series strategies > Option-based portfolio insuranceBudget
Budget
Step 3. Set the required budget
vstrattnow ≡ gstrat(tnow , v
riskytnow
) (9c.49)
Arithmetic Brownian motion
vstrattnow = cBachelier (σ,vriskytnow
− kstrk√thor − tnow
, thor − tnow ) (9c.50)
Geometric Brownian motion
vstrattnow = cBS(vriskytnow, rrf , σ,
ln vriskytnow− ln kstrk
√thor − tnow
, thor − tnow ) (9c.51)
ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Mar-28-2017 - Last update
The “Checklist” > 9c. Dynamic allocation: time series strategies > Option-based portfolio insurancePolicy
Policy
Step 4. Solve the OBPI allocation policy (9c.24)
Delta hedging
Hriskyt ≡
∂gstrat (t,Vriskyt )
∂v(9c.52)
⇓
V stratt = gstrat(t, V risky
t ), t ≤ thor (9c.53)
Arithmetic Brownian motion
Hriskyt = Φ(
V riskyt − kstrk
σ√thor − t
) (9c.55)
Geometric Brownian motion
Hriskyt = Φ
(1
σ(lnV risky
t − ln kstrk√thor − t
+ (r +σ2
2)√thor − t)
)(9c.57)
ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Mar-28-2017 - Last update
The “Checklist” > 9c. Dynamic allocation: time series strategies > Option-based portfolio insurancePolicy
Payoff of the OBPI
Geometric Brownian motion
• vriskytnow= $100, µ = 0.1, σ = 0.4
• vrftnow = $100, rrf = 0.02
• vstrattnow = $10, 000, kstrk = $100
ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Mar-28-2017 - Last update
The “Checklist” > 9c. Dynamic allocation: time series strategies > Option-based portfolio insuranceA unified approach
OBPI and maximum utility
sdf tnow→thor (v) ≡ 1
fV (v)
∂2vcalltnow (k)
∂k2|k=v (14b.32)
stochastic discount factor
density of V riskythor
call option value
Maximum utility: hrisky(·) ≡ argmaxh(·)∈C(E{utility(V stratthor )}) (9c.37)
mOBPI: gθ(v) ≡ utility ′−1( θ er
rf (thor−tnow )sdf (v)) (9c.58)
s.t. E{gθ(V riskythor
)sdf (V riskythor
)} = vstrattnow
ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Mar-28-2017 - Last update
The “Checklist” > 9c. Dynamic allocation: time series strategies > Option-based portfolio insuranceA unified approach
OBPI and maximum utility
Maximum utility: hrisky(·) ≡ argmaxh(·)∈C(E{utility(V stratthor )}) (9c.37)
mOBPI: gθ(v) ≡ utility ′−1(θer
rf (thor−tnow )sdf (v)) (9c.58)
Arithmetic Brownian motion• Stochastic discount factor
sdf (v) = ae− µ
σ2v (9c.60)
• Payoffgλ(v) = cλ +
µ
λσ2v (9c.61)
• PDE solutiongstrat(t, v) = cλ + µv/(λσ2) (9c.62)
• Strategyhriskyt =
µ
λσ2(9c.63)
ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Mar-28-2017 - Last update
The “Checklist” > 9c. Dynamic allocation: time series strategies > Option-based portfolio insuranceA unified approach
OBPI and maximum utility
Maximum utility: hrisky(·) ≡ argmaxh(·)∈C(E{utility(V stratthor )}) (9c.37)
mOBPI: gθ(v) ≡ utility ′−1(θer
rf (thor−tnow )sdf (v)) (9c.58)
Geometric Brownian motion• Stochastic discount factor
sdf (v) = av−µ−r
rf
σ2 (9c.64)
• Payoffln gλ(v) = cλ + 1
λµ−rrfσ2 ln v (9c.65)
• PDE solution
ln gstrat(t, v) = cλ + 1λµ−rrfσ2 ln v + bλ(t− tnow ) (9c.66)
• StrategyHrisky = 1
λµ−rrfσ2
g(t,Vriskyt )
Vriskyt
(9c.67)
ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Mar-28-2017 - Last update