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Thailand in the TPP?Thailand in the TPP?สาํหรบัการเสวนาเรือ่ง

“ความตกลง TPP: ความหวงัใหม่ของการรวมตวัทาง

เศรษฐกิจ หรือเกมการเมืองชาติมหาอาํนาจ” โดย

ดร. รชัดา เจยีสกุล

ไ ไบรษิทั ไบรอนั เคฟ (ประเทศไทย) จาํกดั

[email protected]

Agenda

Thailand’s Preferential Trade AgreementThailand s Preferential Trade Agreement

Trade Figures

Thailand in the TPP?

2

NOW

Thailand PTAs Timeframe

Year 20072005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152004

Thai-Australia

Thai-New Zealand

2003

Thai-Japan

Thai-India

Thai-EU

Th i PThai-Peru

Thai-Chile

AFTA

ASEAN+6ASEAN+6

ASEAN+3

ASEAN-China

ASEAN Australia New ZealandASEAN-Australia-New Zealand

ASEAN-India

ASEAN-Korea

ASEAN-Japan

3

ASEAN-Japan

BIMSTECNote: Date of Signed Effective Date In Progress

Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from Department of Trade Negotiation, MOC

ASEAN Current and Potential Economic Partnerships

ASEAN-Japan CEP

ASEAN-China FTA

ASEAN-South Korea FTA

ASEAN+3ASEAN-India FTA

ASEAN Countries

ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA

ASEAN+6

Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from Department of Trade Negotiation, MOC

Current Economic Partnership

Potential Economic Partnership

Bilateral FTA

Thailand EU FTA

Thailand‐Japan EPA

Thailand‐India FTA

Thailand‐EU FTA

BIMSTEC

Thailand‐Peru CEP

Thailand‐Australia FTA

Thailand‐New Zealand CEP

Thailand

Thailand‐Chile FTA

Current Economic Partnership

Potential Economic Partnership

5Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from Department of Trade Negotiation, MOC

Agenda


Trade Figures

Thailand in the TPP?

6

TPP Member Countries as Thai main Trade Partners:Thailand has FTA with most TPP countries except US and Chile

Accumulated Thailand Total Export to the World (2006-2010) 807,868 Million US$

Accumulated Thailand Total Export to the World (2006-2010) 807,868 Million US$World (2006 2010) 807,868 Million US$ World (2006 2010) 807,868 Million US$

Th il d E t t th 9 TPP M b

Thailand Export to the 10 TPP Member Countries 41.91% of Thailand Total Export to the World


Th il d E t t th t i th t

Thailand Export to the US 11.89% of Thailand Total Export to the World


Thailand Export to the countries that Thailand has PTA within 10 TPP Member Countries 29.82% of Thailand Total Export to the World

7

Thailand Total Export to the World

Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from International Trade Centre

Thailand’s Total Export: Major Trade Partners outside TPP are China, Hong Kong, India, Switzerland

Back-up

United Statesf A i

16.00%

Thailand's Total Export: Country Position

of America

Japan12.00%

14.00% Note: Bubble Size = Thailand's Exported value in 2009Source: International Trade Centre

China

Hong Kong,6 00%

8.00%

10.00%

ort (2005

‐2009): %

Singaporeg g,China

Malaysia

Australia

Viet NamNetherlands

United KingdomIndonesia

Chinese Taipei

IndiaRepublic of Korea

Philippines2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

Share to Total Expo

Chinese Taipei

Germany United Arab Emirates

ppSwitzerlandFranceItaly

‐2.00%

0.00%

‐20.00% ‐10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%

S

8

‐4.00%CAGR (2005‐2009): %


Agenda


Trade Figures

Thailand in the TPP?The Thai-US FTA link with the decision to join TPP

Quantitative and Qualitative Impact Analysis

Factors for consideration

9

The Thai-US FTA: Paused since 2006!

Chronology of Thai-US FTA

2003

2001 2002 20082004 20062003 20102005 2007 2009 2011 2012

200620062002 2004 2004 2005 2005 20052003Thailand and United States announced the intention to negotiate a US-Thailand-FTA on October 19th, 2003 during the event

f th APEC

2006The Thai-United States FTA negotiation was paused due to Thai political problems since 2006.

2006The 6th round of negotiation took place between January 9th to 13th, 2006 at Chiang Mai, Thailand. The negotiation cover every topics

ith t

2002Thailand and United States signed the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) on October 23rd, 2002

2004The 1st round of negotiation took place from June 28th to July 2nd, 2004 at Honolulu, Hawaii. Most of conversation topics are i f ti

2004The 2nd round of negotiation took place from October 11th to 15th, 2004 at Honolulu, Hawaii. Most of conversation t i

2005The 3rd round of negotiation took place from April 4th to 9th, 2005 at Pattaya, Thailand. Most of negotiation topics are to determine th d

2005The 4th round of negotiation took place from July 11th to 15th, 2005 at Great Falls, Montana. There were discussions by 22 negotiating

t

2005The 5th round of negotiation took place from September 26th to 30th, 2005 at Honolulu, Hawaii. There were discussions in 13 t i hi hof the APEC

Leaders' meeting in Bangkok.

with strong objection from NGOs

information exchanges and United States has proposed some drafts but no agreement was made yet.

topics are information exchanges and United States has proposed some more drafts but no agreement was made yet.

the scopes and exchange information. United States has proposed some more drafts but no agreement was made yet.

groups except customs.

topics, which are rules of origin, agriculture market access, technical barriers, SPS, customs, investments, services, competitions, intellectual

10

intellectual properties, science, labours, environments, and legal issues.

US Started Paying Special Attention to TPP since 2008

2002The Pacific

Three Closer

2005Brunei Darussalam

2005The successful

f

2005New Zealand, Chile and Si i d

2005Brunei Darussalam

2006New Zealand and Singapore

2006The Agreement

d i

2006The Agreement

d i

2011The US and eight other Pacific Rim

ti i t

2006The agreement provisionally

Chronology of TTP and The United States Participation

Economic Partnership (P3 CEP) launched by the President of Chile and the Prime Ministers of New Zealand and Singapore at the APEC

L d S it

asked to join the negotiations as a founding member before the final round of negotiations in April 2005

conclusion of negotiations of the Trans-Pacific SEP at the APEC Trade Ministers meeting in Jeju, Korea on 3 June 2005

Singapore signed the Trans-Pacific SEP and accompanying LabourCooperation MOU and Environment Cooperation Agreement in Wellington on 18

signed the agreement in Wellington in early August 2005.

deposited instruments of ratification on 20 and 28 April 2006 respectively.

entered into force for Brunei on 12 July 2006

entered into force for Chile on 8 November 2006

nations aim to forge a free-trade pact before President Barack Obama hosts an Apec summit in November, Honolulu, Hawaii USA.

entered into force (between New Zealand and Singapore only) on 1 May and officially entered into force on 28 May..

Leaders Summit in 2002

3 June 2005 Wellington on 18 July 2005

2001 2002 20082004 20062003 20102005 2007 2009

2008

2011 2012

20112010-20112008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010President

Bush announces negotiations

for US to form TPP and invites

Australia, Peru and

On the last day of the

2011 APEC summit,

November 14 in Hawaii, the

Japanese Prime

Minister,

• 1st round 15 – 18 Mar 10 in Melbourne, Australia;

• 2nd round 14 – 18 Jun 10 in San Francisco, US

• 3rd round 4 – 9 Oct 10 in Brunei Darussalam, Brunei

• 4th round 6 – 10 Dec 10 in Auckland, New Zealand

• 5th round 15 – 18 Mar 10 in Santiago,

Three rounds of US/P4 financial

services and investment

negotiations were held in

2008 First round in

Peru, Australia and

Vietnam announce

their participation in

TPPA negotiations, in November

January 2009• USTR calls

for public comments on proposed TPPA

February 2009• Letter is sent by

54 Members of US Congress to Obama opposing the TPPA

• Obama administration

March 2009• USTR hearings

conducted on TPPA

• Letter is sent by 45 members of the US Congress to Obama

• US Congressional hearings on the TPPA held in March 2010

• Malaysia participated

11

Vietnam to join TPP

negotiations September

2008

Yoshihiko Noda,

announced negotiations

to join in TPP.

gChile

• 6th round 24 Mar - 1 April 11, Singapore.

• 7th round 20 – 24 Jun 11, Viet Nam• 8th round 6 – 11 Sep 11 Chicago, USA:• 9th round 24 – 28 Oct 11, Lima, Peru

March,Second round in June, and

Third round in September

2008 announces deferral of TPPA negotiations for an unspecified period

supporting the TPPA

• US Public Hearings on TPPA held

p pas a full negotiating member at the third round of negotiations

Thailand has FTA with most TPP countries except US and ChileNOW

Year 20072005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152004

Thai-Australia

Thai-New Zealand

2003

Thai-Japan

Thai-India

Thai-EU

Thai-Peru

Thai-Chile

AFTA

ASEAN+6

ASEAN+3

ASEAN-China

ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand

ASEAN-India

ASEAN-Korea

12

ASEAN-Japan

BIMSTECNote: Date of Signed Effective Date In Progress

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA)

13

Agenda


Trade Figures




14

Net Economics Impact of Thai Joining TPP ~ Impact of T-US FTA

Accumulated Thailand Total Export to the World (2006-2010) 807,868 Million US$

Accumulated Thailand Total Export to the World (2006-2010) 807,868 Million US$World (2006 2010) 807,868 Million US$ World (2006 2010) 807,868 Million US$

Th il d E t t th 9 TPP M b



Th il d E t t th t i th t

Thailand Export to the US 11.89% of Thailand Total Export to the World


Thailand Export to the countries that Thailand has PTA within 10 TPP Member Countries 29.82% of Thailand Total Export to the World

15

Thailand Total Export to the World


Quantitative Impact of T-US FTA: TUSFTA & TPP Positively Affect Thai GDP

Unit: Percent

Percentage Change in Gross Domestic Product (Unit:

Free Trade in Goods T-US 0% Tariff + 0% NTMs

S i A TUSFTA AECScenario B: TUSFTA+ AEC+ Scenario C: AEC + Thai

Percent)Scenario A: TUSFTA: + AEC

Existence TPP Joins TPP

Thailand USA Thailand USA Thailand USA

Scenario 1: 1. All Service Sectors 5.80 0.02 2.46 0.02 2.80 0.01

Extreme Scenario

-100%2. ASEAN Service

Sectors5.34 0.01 2.46 0.02 2.80 0.01

1. All Service Sectors 4.07 0.01 1.59 0.01 1.93 0.00 Free

Trade in

Services

Scenario 2: Likely

Scenario -40% 2. ASEAN Service

Sectors3.89 0.01 1.59 0.01 1.93 0.00

Scenario 3: 1 All Service Sectors 3 50 0 01 1 30 0 00 1 64 -0 00 Scenario 3:

Ambitious

Scenario -20%

1. All Service Sectors 3.50 0.01 1.30 0.00 1.64 0.00

2. ASEAN Service

Sectors3.41 0.01 1.30 0.00 1.64 -0.00

S i 4 F T d i G d ONLY 2 93 0 01 2 43 0 02 2 77 0 01

16

Scenario 4: Free Trade in Goods ONLY 2.93 0.01 2.43 0.02 2.77 0.01

Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from GTAP Simulation Results

Long-Run Impact of Different Paths toward FTAP: East-West Center’s Working Paper Model Specification

To explore outcomes from two different pathways toward FTAAP (Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific)

TPP track Asian track

FTAAP FTAAP

TPP13 EAFTA

AEC, CJK

TPP9

,

AEC

P4

Note:

FTAAP: Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific

TPP13: TPP 9 + Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico

TPP9: P4 + Australia, Malaysia, Peru, US, Vietnam

EAFTA: East Asia Free Trade Area (Assumed to be agreed by 2015 and

implemented by 2020 (AEC+CJK))

AEC: ASEAN Economic Community

CJK: China-Japan-Korea Accord (Assumed to be signed in 2012 and

17Source: Peter A. Patri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-

West Center Working Papers Economics Series, No. 119, October 24, 2011

, y , , ,

P4: Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore

p ( g

implemented by 2015)

Long-Run Impact of Different Paths toward FTAP: East-West Center’s Working Paper Model Specification

Tariff and NTB reductions similar to those of prior agreements

Asian Track

2012 2015 2020 2025

CJKChina, Japan, Korea

EAFTAConsolidates ASEAN+3 FTAAP

TPP9 TPP13Korea, Japan, Canada, Mexico join

Trans-Pacific Track

18Source: Peter A. Patri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-


Welfare on alternative tracks

% Baseline GDP

TPP Asian track Two tracks FTAAP

% Baseline GDP


Welfare on alternative tracks

TPP track economies 0.15 0.03 0.18 0.51

United States 0.07 0.02 0.08 0.31

Australia 0.17 0.02 0.18 0.55

Canada 0.12 0.02 0.13 0.37

Two track economies

Korea 0.73 1.63 2.09 2.34

Malaysia 2.24 1.53 3.59 5.25

Singapore 0.35 -0.01 0.21 0.42

Chile 0.78 0.02 0.82 1.72

Mexico 0.58 0.14 0.70 2.07

New Zealand 0.83 0.02 0.86 1.22

Peru 2.12 0.02 2.16 2.53

Vietnam 14.27 6.49 18.44 26.14

Other -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 0.28

Russia -0.03 -0.05 -0.08 5.46

Chinese Taipei -0.20 -0.95 -1.05 3.77

Asian track economies -0.10 0.61 0.53 1.98

China -0.09 0.50 0.42 1.89

Hong Kong -0.02 3.72 3.69 6.10

Indonesia -0.10 0.55 0.48 1.18

Europe 0.02 0.03 0.03 -0.01

India -0.02 -0.12 -0.13 -0.21

Other ASEAN -0.30 0.64 0.40 2.04

ROW -0.04 -0.01 -0.04 -0.24

Philippines -0.12 1.25 1.15 2.90

Thailand -0.28 1.60 1.37 3.38

Two track economies 1.07 1.16 2.01 2.45

Brunei 0.48 1.31 1.50 1.64

World -0.10 0.21 0.30 0.85

Memorandum

TPP9 0.30 0.11 0.38 0.73

ASEAN+3 0.25 0.78 0.98 2.12

19

Japan 0.58 0.80 1.26 1.38 APEC 0.19 0.37 0.53 1.57

Source: Peter A. Patri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-


Export on alternative tracks

% Baseline exports


% Baseline exports


Export on alternative tracks

TPP track economies 2.3 0.0 2.3 9.2

United States 2.0 0.1 2.1 10.3

Australia 2.8 0.0 2.8 9.9

Canada 1.1 -0.1 1.0 2.8

Two track economies

Korea 7.7 14.6 18.6 19.6

Malaysia 5.0 4.0 8.3 8.8

Singapore 0.6 -1.3 -1.1 -4.2

Chile 3.0 -0.3 2.7 5.3

Mexico 3.1 0.1 3.1 11.1

New Zealand 5.7 -0.1 5.7 8.5

Peru 11.0 -0.2 10.9 14.2

Vietnam 25.8 13.1 31.6 43.0

Other -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.3

Russia -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 20.5

Chinese Taipei -0.8 -3.0 -3.4 17.7

Asian track economies -0.5 6.1 5.7 16.5

China -0.5 6.1 5.6 17.7

Hong Kong -0.4 9.5 9.1 14.8

Indonesia -0.7 6.0 5.4 12.0

Europe -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -2.9

India -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -3.0

Other ASEAN -2.4 5.2 3.1 17.8

ROW -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -3.4

Philippines -0.6 5.0 4.4 10.8

Thailand -0.7 5.4 4.8 16.2

Two track economies 7.2 9.4 14.3 4.7

Brunei 1.8 4.2 4.8 14.6

World 0.8 2.1 2.7 6.6

Memorandum

TPP9 3.9 1.1 4.5 11.2

ASEAN+3 1.9 7.1 8.3 16.4

20

Japan 4.9 9.4 12.9 19.6 APEC 1.7 4.0 5.3 14.6

Source: Peter A. Patri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-


HighlightsHighlights from GTAP Resultfrom GTAP Result

Highest benefit to Thailand when TUS FTA occurs with AEC but no other Highest benefit to Thailand when TUS-FTA occurs with AEC but no other

FTA between US and other countries in AEC (Unrealistic First Mover

Advantage)g )

Joining TPP will positively affect Thai GDP

Without Joining TPP Thailand should continue pushing for ASEAN +

negotiation. However, Thailand will enjoy less benefit compare with the

other two-tracks economies (e.g. Malaysia, Korea, Japan, Vietnam)

21

Other Considerations T-US FTA Impact Analysis

Environmental Impacts

Biodiversity

Intellectual Property Right (CL/ Data Exclusivity/ Protection of

New Varieties of Plants/ Microorganism)

State-Investor Dispute Settlement

Genetically Modified Organisms: GMOs

Sectoral Impacts

S iServices

22

Outlines of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

Comprehensive market access: to eliminate tariffs and other barriers to goods and services trade and investment, so as

to create new opportunities for our workers and businesses and immediate benefits for our consumers.

Fully regional agreement: to facilitate the development of production and supply chains among TPP members,

supporting our goal of creating jobs, raising living standards, improving welfare and promoting sustainable growth in our

countries.

Cross-cutting trade issues: to build on work being done in APEC and other forums by incorporating in TPP four new,

cross-cutting issues These are:cross-cutting issues. These are:

1) Regulatory coherence. Commitments will promote trade between the countries by making trade among them more seamless and efficient.

2) Competitiveness and Business Facilitation. Commitments will enhance the domestic and regional competitiveness of each TPP country’s economy

and promote economic integration and jobs in the region, including through the development of regional production and supply chains.

3) S ll d M di Si d E t i C it t ill dd ll d di i d t i h i d b t th diffi lt i 3) Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises. Commitments will address concerns small- and medium-sized enterprises have raised about the difficulty in

understanding and using trade agreements, encouraging small- and medium-sized enterprises to trade internationally.

4) Development. Comprehensive and robust market liberalization, improvements in trade and investment enhancing disciplines, and other commitments,

including a mechanism to help all TPP countries to effectively implement the Agreement and fully realize its benefits, will serve to strengthen

institutions important for economic development and governance and thereby contribute significantly to advancing TPP countries’ respective p p g y g y g p

economic development priorities.

New trade challenges: to promote trade and investment in innovative products and services, including related to the

digital economy and green technologies, and to ensure a competitive business environment across the TPP region.

Living agreement: to enable the updating of the agreement as appropriate to address trade issues that emerge in the

future as well as new issues that arise with the expansion of the agreement to include new countries.

23Source: USTR, November 12, 2011, the Leaders of the nine Trans-Pacific Partnership countries announcement of the achievement of the

broad outlines of an ambitious, 21st-century Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement

The TPP as a 21st Century Agreement:Issues with Extensive Precedents (I)

Issues Prior Coverage (% of Accords)

Possible Content Expected Controversies

Goods 100 Reduce customs duties; specify customs valuation methodology; establish oversight committees; provide for exceptions and special treatment of sensitive products.

There will be difficult negotiations on exclusion lists and time path of liberalization; advanced countries will resist reducing barriers on labor‐intensive goods.

Services 91 Require national and MFN treatment; bar performance requirements; require regulation to be transparent and not

d l b d t f d t

The diversity of services and limited prior multilateral liberalization will make negotiations difficult. Advanced

i k b d d t i t di i li iunduly burdensome; ensure transfers and payments; address licenses and certifications obtained abroad.

economies seek broad and strict disciplines; emerging economies may want exclusions and slow implementation.

Technical Barriers

69 Require implementation of WTO agreements; encourage mutual acceptance of technical regulations and conformity assessment; establish mechanisms for cooperation.

Advanced economies seek "WTO+" features. Developing economies want to avoid ambitious TBT measures and potential disguised protectionism.

Competition 66 Require measures against anticompetitive business Economies that do not have explicit competition policies and/orCompetition 66 Require measures against anticompetitive business conduct; ensure competitive neutrality of policy with respect to government enterprises; require national treatment and enforcement authority.

Economies that do not have explicit competition policies and/or have significant state‐owned sector could face significant reform requirements.

Intellectual Property

77 Require accession to international treaties; require effective enforcement of criminal and civil penalties in case of

Highly controversial; affects especially pharmaceuticals and information technology. Exporters seek provisions beyond

Rights knowing violations; require destruction of pirated or counterfeit goods.

TRIPS, such as accession to WIPO treaties. Resistance from importers, competitive producers, national health systems, NGOs. Developing countries may want to regulate bio‐prospecting

Source: Petri, Plummer, and Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-West Center Working

24

Papers Economics Series, No. 119, October 24, 2011

The TPP as a 21st Century Agreement:Issues with Extensive Precedents (II)



Investment 74 Require national and MFN treatment under international law; bar performance requirements; limit expropriation; require compensation; ensure free and timely transfers;

High priority for all TPP economies but are differences on sectoralcoverage and ownership limits. Some countries seek investor‐state arbitration, as provided in bilateral investment treaties; this q p ; y ;

establish procedures for dispute resolution by international tribunals.

, p ;is opposed by NGOs and some governments.

Government Procurement

66 Require national treatment and nondiscrimination consistent with the WTO agreement; specify rules of origin establish standards for transparency; provide for supplier

Only two TPP economies have acceded to WTO accords; three others are observers. Members will push for strong provisions and observers will likely follow, but non‐members will seek high

challenges. de minimis rules.Sanitary and phytosanitary standards

69 Ensure appropriate protection of human, animal, and plant health; establish committees for ongoing cooperation.

The details of acceptable standards are complicated. Less‐advanced economies will seek de minimis rules, assurances against hidden protectionism, and technical assistance.

Dispute Settlement

91 Create Procedures for convening dispute settlement panels; authorizes monetary penalties and suspension of

Relatively uncontroversial.Settlement panels; authorizes monetary penalties and suspension of

benefits when other methods of resolving a dispute fail. May provide for international arbitration.

Rules of origin 94 Establish rules for determining when a product originates in the FTA; set de minimis standards; list exceptions; provide for verification, documentation and consultation.

Negotiations involve product‐by‐product detail. Accumulation is an important test of the TPP's ability to consolidate the "noodle bowl".p ,

Trade remedies

66 Provide for temporary, bilateral safeguards in the event (or threat) of injury to domestic industry; limit the scale and duration of safeguard actions.

While trade remedies are controversial, the template is less so.

Customs procedures

86 Define procedures for customs administration affecting transparency, advance rulings, review and appeal.

High priority for most economies, but emerging economies will be cautious about implementation costs and commitments;

25Source: Petri, Plummer, and Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-West Center Working


technical assistance may be helpfulTemporary entry

54 Provide for short‐term entry of business persons on an expedited basis.

Relatively uncontroversial; issues arise on qualifications of service providers.

The TPP as a 21st Century Agreement:Issues with Few Precedents (I)



Institution 43 Provide for mechanisms such as joint committees to Relatively uncontroversialInstitution 43 Provide for mechanisms such as joint committees to supervise implementation.

Relatively uncontroversial.

Financial Services

26 Require national and MFN treatment under international law; bar performance requirements; limit expropriation; require compensation; ensure free and timely transfers; establish procedures for dispute resolution byt

high priority for all TPP economies but are differences on sectoral coverage and ownership limits. Some countries seek investor‐state arbitration, as provided in bilateral investment treaties; this is opposed by NGOs and some governments.establish procedures for dispute resolution byt

international tribunals.by NGOs and some governments.

E‐commerce ‐ Enfure free flow of information across borders; prohibit tariffs on e‐commerce; facilitate cross‐border supply of services; protect confidentiality of information.

Issues involving regulation of information flow may be of concern to some economies.

Telecom‐ ‐ Ensure interconnection and nondiscriminatory access to Principles uncontroversial but some economies will want to maintainTelecommunications

Ensure interconnection and nondiscriminatory access to telecommunications networks; eleminate investment limits; limit require technology neutrality; promote mutual recognition in testing and certification.

Principles uncontroversial, but some economies will want to maintain limitations on investment and competition, and on the development of standards.

Agriculture 9 Regulate tariff‐quotas; bar export subsidies; disciplines on export taxes and restricitions; limit safeguards to

Controversial for a few products such as sugar and diary. Many TPP economies are net exporters but some want exceptions Theon export taxes and restricitions; limit safeguards to

applied MFN duties; provide for consultations on improving market access for specific products.

economies are net exporters but some want exceptions. The compromise will have implications for future accession by countries such as Canada and Japan.


26


The TPP as a 21st Century Agreement:Issues with Few Precedents (II)



Labor 9 Incorporate ILO obligations; require domestic laws to be Highly controversial; developed countries seek labor practices that areLabor 9 Incorporate ILO obligations; require domestic laws to be conosistent with international standards; may require enforcement; authorize joint oversight committees.

Highly controversial; developed countries seek labor practices that are difficult to adopt and may impede competitiveness in low‐income countries. Compromises will be needed.

Environment 9 Require laws for environmental protection and effective remedies for violations; ensure public participation; encourage technological cooporation; authorize joint

Developed economies seek higher environmental standards than some developing economies; the latter want safeguards against "environmental protectionism." g g p j

committees.p

Safety standards

3 Require reglation of products and services to ensure safety.

Advance economies are pushing for "best practices;" emerging economies seek de minimis rules.

Regulator coherence

‐ Require regulations to be developed in an open transparent process; require national treatment.

Objectives are relatively uncontroversial but implementation has little precedent.

Small and medium size enterprises

3 Promote joint strategies to support SMEs; facilitate capacity building and dissemination of information.

Relatively uncontroversial; opportunity to support capacity‐building in low‐income economies.

Business facilitation

0 Provide for cooperation in trade and investment promotion, customs clearance, inspections and quarantine create joint working groups

Relatively uncontroversial; opportunity to support capacity‐building in low‐income economies.

quarantine; create joint working groups.

Culture 0 Promote cultural cooperation; regulate limits on imports of movies and other cultural products.

Controversial provisions may affect import restrictions on movies, music and other cultural products.

Science and technology

0 Provide for joint work and technology transfer in critical industries such information technology and mining.

Relatively uncontroversial

27



Agenda


Trade Figures




28

Thailand in the TPP?: Factors for consideration

Plurilateral Trade Agreement Opportunity between Thailand and the US with Better

Bargaining Power for Thailand

Chance to be one of the Early Member Countries in the New Asia Pacific FTA

A Chance to have Socio-Political Adjustment Regards Liberalization of Services & j g

IPR Articles

Consequences on the Development of AEC & Potential ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6

DialoguesDialogues

Thailand’s Role in the World International Trade Scene (Thailand in the FTAs’

Radar)

Chance to be Involve in the “high-quality” FTA & Opportunity for Domestic

Reforms and Corruption Mitigation

Consider Thailand’s International Trade Dependence and Direction Toward

29

Knowledge Base and Creative Economy

Thailand with a very high International Trade Dependence!

375 15TRADE DEPENDENCE INDEX (2010)

152 71

297.56

375.15

200250300350400

ence Inde

x

118.44

26.79 50.5922.33

152.71

31.96 41.520.56

99.46

050

100150200

Trade Den

deT

Country

30

Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, September 2011, and www.trademap.org

Note: Trade Dependence Index = (Exports + Imports)/GDP

Example: Sectoral Impact! (Sugar)

35.00%

Position Mapping for Product HS 1701 Imported by the U.S.

Note: Bubble Size = US' imported value in 2009FTA

Mexico

25.00%

30.00%

= FTA= FTA (waiting for Congress to enact legislation in order to go into effect)

= TPP: Ongoing Negotiation= FTA and TPP= Others

Rank of Thailand: 20

15 00%

20.00%

port (200

5‐20

09)

Source: International Trade Centre

Brazil

Guatemala

Dominican Republic

Philippines

10.00%

15.00%

Share to Total Imp

pp

AustraliaEl SalvadorColombia

Costa RicaNicaragua

Paraguay

Canada

Argentina

Peru

Panama

HondurasSouth AfricaSwazilandZimbabweThailand

0.00%

5.00%

‐30.00% ‐20.00% ‐10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%

31

‐5.00%CAGR (2005‐2009): %

Source: International Trade Centre, Bryan Cave (Thailand) Analysis

Top 20 US Import Source Countries

25 00%Position Mapping for All Products Imported by the U.S.

China

20.00%

25.00%Note: Bubble Size = U.S. Imported Value in 2010= FTA= FTA (waiting for Congress to enact legislation in order to go into effect)

= TPP: Ongoing Negotiation= FTA and TPP= Others

R k f Th il d 18

Canada

Mexico10.00%

15.00%

mpo

rt (2006‐2010): %

Rank of Thailand: 18Source: International Trade Centre

Japan

GermanyUnited Kingdom

Republic of Korea

FranceChinese T i i

SaudiArabia

Italy

Malaysia

Ireland

Nigeria

Brazil IndiaTh il d

RussianFederation

5.00%

Share to Total Im

Venezuela

Taipeiy IrelandBrazil IndiaThailand Israel

‐5.00%

0.00%

‐10.00% ‐8.00% ‐6.00% ‐4.00% ‐2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00%

CAGR (2006‐2010): %

32Source: International Trade Centre, Bryan Cave (Thailand) Analysis

Thailand in the TPP? - ISIT · 2012. 3. 7. · Existence TPP Joins TPP Thailand USA Thailand USA...

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