Technical Analysis by Nattawat 070913 1
description
Transcript of Technical Analysis by Nattawat 070913 1
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3
1. (Technical Analysis)
2. (Fundamental Analysis)
3. (Quantitative Analysis)
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(Technical Analysis)
Price Pattern
Elliots wave
trends
Indicators Candlestick
Fibbonanci
Candle Sticks
Volume Analysis
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2 2
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Technical :
1. 2. 3. 4.
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6. Mr.Market
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Timeframe
5 A B C D F
Timeframe
A Candlesticks 1-3
B C Candlesticks Bar charts 1-2 3-6
D F Candlesticks Bar charts 1-2 3-6 15 60 10
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A B C 2
3 B D
F E A B C D F
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A
Timeframe Fundflow
Fundflow NVDR A NET buy/sell
MSCI Index
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A
BBL SCB KBANK PTTGC SCC BANPU ( B ) PTT PTTEP TOP ADVANC
20% 5
Fundflow
Fundflow
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SET Index A
SET Index A
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A
20 Fundflow Net Buy/sell
Fundflow A
A 11
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A 5-10% 2-4 20%
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A 3
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2
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A
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A
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4-6
Candlestick
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A
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A
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A
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24
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A
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A
26
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A
new high
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A
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A
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A
6 New high 6
Set SET Sideway SET 15 3 2 5
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A
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DW
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B C 5
Candlestick 20% 5 20 C
50 B
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B C B C
B C
50
B 20 C
20%
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B
20-30%
3-5 New High
50% 2 3-5
B
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50
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Sideway
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Sideway
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C B
C B
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1 20 50
2-3
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C B C
C
C
Lets Profit Run Stop Loss 43
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50
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20
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C
2 C 2 20 50 C 3 Candlestick
20 20
50 50 2 C 20 Panic
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B C
Candlestick
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B 50 B
50 C 20 50
C B
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B C
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B C Cut Loss
Short against Port
B C
B C SET Index
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2
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2 7 1 1
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(Trends)
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TFEX SBL 50% 100% 20% 20% 100%
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20
40
60
80
Low
New high 55
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New Low Higher High
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Rebound
Short against Port Technical Rebound Rebound
Price Pattern , Hamonic Trading Fibonanci number Short against Port
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2
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Stop Loss 3
LetProfit Run Follow Buy
bid Sideway
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Sideway
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Sideway
Sideway
Sideway
Sideway 3 Sideway
Sideway 3-6 Sideway
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Sideway C D
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1-2 10 Downtrend line
3 1
Follow Buy Let Profit Run Stop
Loss
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5
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SET
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22
2556 1464.72
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(Moving Average )
N SMA
SMAt = 1/N (Pt+..........+Pt-N+1) P =
T = t
N =
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1-3
Save
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Source:Bisnews83
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Dead Cross
Gold Cross
Source:Bisnews
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59%
34%
36%
43%
59%
34%
36%
43%
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(Multiple Moving Average:MMA)
6 3 , 5, 8 , 10 , 12 , 15 6 30 , 35 , 40 , 45 , 50 , 60
686.59 , 689.73 , 692.11 , 693.76 , 694.75 , 694.99 86
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20 , 50 , 200 SME , EMA
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200
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75 200 Vol 15 RSI 25 45
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BC C BC B C BC 20 50 C 20 50
B A D F 100 200 C D 10
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ICHIMOKU KINKO chart
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ICHIMOKU KINKO chart 5
1. Tenkan-sen 2. Kijun-sen 3. Chikou Span 4. Senkon Span A 5. Senkon Span B
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ICHIMOKU KINKO chart
1. Tenkan-sen (9 period high + 9 period low)/2( 9 9 ) 2 9
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ICHIMOKU KINKO chart
2. Kijun-sen (26 period high + 26 period low)/2( 26 26 ) 2 26
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ICHIMOKU KINKO chart
3. Chikou Span Close plotted 26 period in the past ( 26 ) Shirt 26
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ICHIMOKU KINKO chart
4. Senkon Span A (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2 9 26 2
5. Senkon Span B (52 period high + 52 period low) / 2 52 52 2
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3 B C Volume
vol
Vol 15 Vol Vol Vol
Vol
VOL Vol
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B C 3
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B C
Price Pattern B C C B B Sideway
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B 2
higher Low new low
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B C
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D
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Candlestick
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Candlesticks
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Candlestick
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3 1. Bullish Candlestick
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2. Bearish Candlestick
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3. Doji
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Candlestick 1-3
Gap
2-3
Rebound 1-3 Sideway
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20
20
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3-4
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.2556
A BANK 2 A C D HOT
B B
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D
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Price Pattern
50:50
Candlesticks
Candlesticks
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(PRICE PATTERN) 3
(REVERSAL TREND)
(CONTINUATION TREND)
(SIDEWAYS PATTERN)
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(REVERSAL TREND)
(V FORMATION) (HEAD & SHOULDERS)
(DOUBLE/TRIPLE BOTTOMS & DOUBLE/TRIPLE TOPS)
(THE ROUNDING TURN) (BROADENING
TRIANGLE)122
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V
(V-Bottom) V (V-Top)
V GAP Candle Sticks
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3
(V FORMATION)
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(HEAD & SHOULDERS bottom) (HEAD & SHOULDERS TOP)
3 (HEAD) (SHOULDERS) Head VOL
(NECKLINE) (NECKLINE)
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(DOUBLE/TRIPLE BOTTOMS & DOUBLE/TRIPLE TOPS)
(DOUBLE TOPS) M 2 2
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(DOUBLE BOTTOMS)
W (DOUBLE TOPS) (DOUBLE BOTTOMS) (NECKLINE) Follow Buy
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(TRIPLE TOPS)
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Divergent MACD RSI
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3-6 130
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(THE ROUNDING TURN) (ROUNDING BOTTOM)
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(ROUNDING Top)
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(GAP)
COMMON GAP
Gap Sideway
BREAKAWAY GAP
BREAKAWAY GAP
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CONTINUATION/RUNAWAY GAP ()
EXHAUSTION GAP
GAP BREAKAWAY GAP CONTINUTION GAP
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A
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B
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C
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D
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(CONTINUATION TREND)
2 FLAG PENNANT (FLAG) 2
BULLISH FLAG BEARISH FLAG
(PENNANT)
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(BULLISH FLAG)
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(BEARISH FLAG)
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(PENNANT)
(PENNANT)
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(SIDEWAYS PATTERN)
6 1-2 2 RECTANGLE TRIANGLE
1 (RECTANGLE) (SIDEWAYS) (SUPPORT LINE) (RESISTANCE LINE) 10-20%
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2 SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE
2
1. ASCENDING TRIANGLE
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6
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2 .DESCENDING Triangle
Sideway
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A
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B
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C
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D
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D F
Candlestick Follow Buy PRICE Pattern 3 Price Pattern Fibonannci Harmonic Elliots Technical Indicators
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D F Technical Analysis
1-2
Ticker
D Value Investor
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D F
Let Profit Run 5 Stop Loss Stoploss 3%
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SET
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C D F
Follow Buy Follow Buy Follow Buy
2
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D Candle/price pattern/trendline/ Volume
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Jesse Livermore
1)
2) STOP LOSS
3) 4) Let Profit Run
5)
J.L.
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Follow Buy
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Follow Buy
Follow Buy
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Follow Buy
Follow Buy
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D F
Force sell
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TFEX F
1 Position
2 Long position long Position Short Position
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4 Long Position Short Position Short Position
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5 TFEX Position
2 Position
3 TFEX TFEX
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6 TFEX
Moving average
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Trendline Price Pattern
Harmonic Patterns
Elliots Wave
Harmonic Elliots Wave
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Price Pattern
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Fibonacci
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(Leonardo Pisano) (Leonardo Fibonacci) (Fibonacci)
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, ..., 2+3 =5
0.618 21/34 = 0.618
0.382 13/34 = 0.382
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Fibonacci 0.236(23.6%) 0.382(38.2%) 0.500(50%) 0.618(61.8%) 0.764(76.4%) 1.000(100%) 1.318(131.8%) 1.618(161.8%) 2.618(261.8%) 4.236(423.6%)
2 5 22/7
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14.6
23.6
33.3
38.2
41.4
50
58.6
61.8
66.7
76.4
85.4
90.0
94.4
100.0
105.6
109.2
114.6
123.6
138.2
166.7
176.4
185.4
190.2
194.4
223.6
261.8
276.4
285.4
294.4
361.8
376.4
385.6
423.6190
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166.7% 1567
176.4 1658
138.2% 1340
D
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Harmonic
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Harmonic 6 Pattern
1. ABCD Pattern
2.Three Drive Pattern
3.Gartley Pattern
4.Crab Pattern
5.Bat Paatern
6.Butterfly Pattern
The Shark Pattern ,The Dragon Pattern193
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The AB=CD Pattern
The Fibonacci numbers in the pattern must occur at specific points. BC must retrace to 0.618or 0.786. Of AB
This retracement sets up the BC projection that should converge at the 1.27 or 1.618. Of BC
It is important to note that a .618 retracement at the C point will result in a 1.618 BC projection.
A .786 retracement at the C point will result in a 1.27 projection.
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ABCD Pattern 2 Bullish ABCD Bearish ABCD
2 .618 .786196
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The Bat pattern
The Bat pattern is a precise harmonic pattern discovered by Scott Carney in 2001.
The pattern incorporates the 0.886XA retracement, as the defining element in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).
The B point retracement must be less than a 0.618, preferably a 0.50 or 0.382 of the XA leg.
The Bat utilizes a minimum 1.618BC projection. In addition, the AB=CD pattern within the Bat is extended and usually requires a 1.27AB=CD calculation.
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BC XA
BC AB
AB .382 0.50
CD 1.618 BC 2.618 CD
.886 XA
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the Butterfly pattern
The structure of the Butterfly pattern was discovered by Bryce Gilmore. In my experience, I believe an Ideal Butterfly Pattern, which requires specific Fibonacci ratio to define the structure - including a mandatory 0.786 retracement of the XA leg as the B point - offers more precise Potential Reversal Zones (PRZ) and more significant trading opportunities.
the Butterfly pattern must include an AB=CD pattern to be a valid signal. Frequently, the AB=CD pattern will possess an extended CD leg that is 1.27 or 1.618 of the AB leg.
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Although this is an important requirement for a valid trade signal, the most critical number in the pattern is the 1.27 XA leg. The XA calculation is usually complemented by an extreme (2.00, 2.24, 2.618) BC projection. These numbers create a specific Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) that can yield powerful reversals, especially when the pattern is in all-time (new highs/new lows) price levels.
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AB .786
BC XA
BC AB
CD 1.618 BC 2.618 BC
1.271.618 XA
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The Crab is a Harmonic pattern
The Crab is a Harmonic pattern discovered by Scott Carney in 2001. The critical aspect of this pattern is the tight Potential Reversal Zone created by the 1.618 of the XA leg and an extreme (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) projection of the BC leg but employs an 0.886 retracement at the B point unlike the regular version that utilizes a 0.382-0.618 at the mid-point. The pattern requires a very small stop loss and usually volatile price action in the Potential Reversal Zone.
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AB .618
XA
BC XA
BC AB
CD 2.24 BC 2.618 3.618 BC
1.271.618 XA
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The Gartley pattern
The Gartley pattern was outlined by H.M. Gartley in his book Profits in the Stock Market, published in 1935. Although the pattern is named "The Gartley," the book did not discuss specific Fibonacci retracements! It was not until "The Harmonic Trader" was released that the specific retracements of the B point at a .618 and the D point at a .786 were assigned to the pattern.
There are others who have assigned Fibonacci retracements to this framework. However, they use a variety of Fibonacci numbers at the B and D points.
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. Despite these variations, the Fibonacci retracements that yield the most reliable reversals are the .618 at the B point and the .786 at the D point. Furthermore, the pattern should possess a distinct AB=CD pattern that converges in the same area as the 0.786 XA retracement and the BC projection (either 1.27 or 1.618). The most critical aspect of the Gartley is the B point retracement, which must be at a 0.618 of the XA leg.
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The Shark Pattern
The Dragon Pattern
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Harmonic Elliots Wave
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Elliots wave
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ELLIOTS WAVE Elliot Wave ()
(Market Emotion Market Emotion
(Pattern and Rules) FIBO
2 Impulse phase Correction Phase
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Elliots wave
Impuse Correction
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221
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12
4
3
5
A
B
C
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12
4
3
5
A
B
C
1
2
4
3
5
1
2
3
4
5
A
B
C1
3
5
2
4
1
3
5
2
4
A
B
C
A
B
C
1
3
5
2
4
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Hamonic Elliots Wave
1 2 A B C 4 5
1 A C 5 b 2 B 4 a c
A B C 3 5 3 A 5 B 3
C 5
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(Corrective Wave) 2 B 4 a c 6
Zig-Zag : 5 - 3 - 5
Flat : 3 - 3 - 5
Irregular : 3 - 3 - 5
Horizontal Triangle : 5 ABCDE 3 - 3 - 3 - 3 - 3
Double Three : abc 2 x 2
Triple Three : abc 3 x 2 226
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53
5 3
3
55
3
3
227
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228
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229
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(Corrective Wave)
: Wave 4 Wave 1
4 1 "" Wave 2 Wave 4 Wave
2 a-b-c Wave 4 wave 2
Zig-Zag Flat Double Three 230
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Impulse 5 3 5
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Elliots Wave
PRICE OBJECTIVE 2 = < 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 1.00 > 1(W1)
3(W3) = < 1.00, 1.618, 2.618 > 1(W1)
5 3 1
B = 0.50, 0.618 A
C = < 0.618, 1.00, 1.618 A 232
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1. 5 3 5 fail
2. 3 161.8% 1 5 1
3. 3 161.8% 1 5
4. 4 50% 3 5 fail
5. 3 161.8% 1 2 261.8% 423.6%
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5 Wedge
5
5
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Elliots Wave
Elliots wave
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Commodity Channel
Index (CCI)
Chaikin Money Flow
Elliot oscillator
Historical volatility
McClellan Oscillator
Money Flow Index
(MFI)
Negative Volume Index
(NVI)
Ect.
Technical Indicators
Moving Average
Convergence /Divergence
(MACD)
Exponential Moving
Average (EMA)
Relative Strength Index
(RSI)
Slow stochastic
Swing Index
Average Directional
Movement Index (ADX)
On Balance Volume
(OBV)
Parabolic SAR (pSAR)
Bollinger Bands
Williams %R
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RSI : RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX
(RSI) (INTERNAL STRENGTH) 14 14 RSI
14 RSI RSI = 100 - 100
1+RS RS = 14 14
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Relative Strength Index (RSI) J. Welles Wilder
70 Over Bought
30 Over Sold
RSI = 100 100
(1 + RS*) *RS =
RSI RS = 1 RSI RSI 50 () RSI 30 RSI RSI 28 45
RSI 0 100
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RSI
267
242RSI 25
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RSI Relative Strength IndexRSI 70 RSI 30
Over Bought
Over Sold
SET INDEX
Source:Bisnews
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RSI
RSI 70 C D F
A B RSI 70 Divergence Day Week
1-3 25 45 RSI RSI 60 40
Rebound
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A RSI 70-75 Candlesticks
A RSI 70 B RSI 75-80
Candlesticks C RSI 80-85
Candlesticks D F RSI 85-90
Candlesticks
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RSI A
243
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RSI B C
244
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RSI D F
245
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RSI
246
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D F RSI 70
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Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD)
MACD Line: (12-day EMA - 26-day EMA) Signal Line: 9-day EMA of MACD Line MACD Histogram: MACD Line - Signal Line
MACD(5,35,5) is more sensitive than MACD(12,26,9) and might be better suited for weekly charts.
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MACD SET Index
MACD 0 MACD 0
Source:Bisnews 249
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Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)
MACD Signal MACD Signal
MACD 0 MACD 0
MACD Line: (12 EMA 26 EMA)Signal Line: 9 EMA MACD
()
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0 0 Day Week Macd 0 3 confirm
3-5 Macd 0 3 confirm week
MACD Efinance D-macd
MACD
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