Svjetska banka 5. juni 2012 .
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Transcript of Svjetska banka 5. juni 2012 .
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Regionalni ekonomski izvještajza Jugoistočnu Evopu (SEE RER) Br.2
Jedinica za smanjenje siromaštva i ekonomsko upravljanje (PREM)Regija Evrope i Centralne Azije (ECA)
Svjetska banka5. juni 2012.
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Prikaz
I. SEE6: DEŠAVANJA, IZGLEDI, IZAZOVI
II. U PRAVCU “ZLATNOG RASTA” U SEE6
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I. SEE6: DEŠAVANJA, IZGLED, IZAZOVI: Globalni kontekst
• Svijet je još uvijek suočen sa nekoliko izazova:• rastom cijena nafte;• smanjenim dotokom kapitala;• konsolidacijom fiskalnog i bankarskog sektora zemalja sa
visokim prihodima• Većina zemalja u razvoju su se u potpunosti oporavile od
krize. • Ali u drugoj polovici 2011 došlo je do usporavanja koje je
proizvelo značajan nivo nesigurnosti za budućnost globalne ekonomije, uz mogućnost daljeg širenja krize.
• Početkom 2012. primjećuju se pozitivni signali, ali u maju dolazi do previranja
• Rizik intenziviranja krize u Grčkoj i njenog daljeg širenja
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Globalna industrijska proizvodnja i uvoz su porasli početkom 2012.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2011M01 2011M04 2011M07 2011M10 2012M01
World IP
Developing IP
High Income IP
percent growth, 3m/3m, saar
Source: Datastream and World Bank Prospects Group
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2009M01 2009M06 2009M11 2010M04 2010M09 2011M02 2011M07 2011M12
Industrial Production (3m/3m)
Import Volume (3m/3m)
percent growth, 3m/3m, saar
Source: Datastream and World Bank Prospects Group
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Ali u maju dolazi do povećanja financijske neizvjesnosti
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
PortugalIrelandSpainItalyBelgium
5-yr sovereign credit-default swap rates (basis points), Jan 2010-May 2012
Source: Bloomberg and World Bank Prospects Group
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SKORAŠNJA DEŠAVANJA U SEE6
• Za razliku od mnogih drugih zemalja u razvoju, u SEE6 je oporavak realnog proizvoda spor
• Značajne vanjske korekcije• Ali povećava se dug – značajan problem• Tržište kredita – poboljšava se, ali sporo• Smanjenje siromaštva: sporo• Neiskorišteni potencijal: izvoz
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Oporavak realnog outputa u SEE6 (2008 realni GDP index=100)
ALB, KOS, MKD dobro napreduju BIH, CG, SRB zaostaju- Zašto?
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Dijelom je to zbog investicija... Osim u MKD i KOS
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Ali potrošnja i izvoz su također slabi
Potrošnja, 2008=100 Izvoz, 2008=100
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SEE6 se preorijentirao sa rasta kojeg je pokretala trgovina na rast kojeg pokreće potražnja, ali potražnja
je i dalje slaba…
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…što se odražava u smanjenim stopama inflacije, unatoč višim cijenama energije
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…a doznake imaju funkciju ekonomskog i socijalnog amortizera
KOS BiH ALB SRB SEE6 MKD MNE0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.0
2008 2009 2010 2011
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Veliki neiskorišteni potencijal: izvoz
MK BiH SRB SEE6 ALB MNE KOS0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
3 4 3 47
1 2
10 53 3
9
10
9 72
4
8
7
75
32
68
35
4 3
2
OtherSEE6OtherEUGermanyItaly
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Ali ukupni javni i privatni vanjski dug postaje previsok
MNE SRB SEE6 MKD BiH ALB KOS0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.02008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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…posebno javni dug (osim na KOS)(% BDP-a)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
MNE ALB SRB BiH MKD KOS
2008 2009 2010 2011
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(Privremeno?) olakšanje izvana:5 –godišnje marže najvažnijih matičnih banaka
(bazičnih poena) i Beč 2.0.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
RaiffeisenErste
Unicredit
IntesaKBC
SocGen
SEB
Nordea
EBA's recapitalization plan announcement
LTRO1LTRO2
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Depoziti su se uglavnom oporavili do nivoa od prije krize…
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160D
ec-0
5
Jun-
06
Dec
-06
Jun-
07
Dec
-07
Jun-
08
Dec
-08
Jun-
09
Dec
-09
Jun-
10
Dec
-10
Jun-
11
Dec
-11
ALB BIHKOS MKDMNE SRBSEE6 total
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…ali rast kredita nije (nominalni rast godina-za godinu)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
ALB
BIH
KOS
MKD
MNE
SRB
SEE6 median
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…a razlog za to su uglavnom loši krediti (krediti koji se ne vraćaju – NPL).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007:Q1 2007:Q4 2008:Q3 2009:Q2 2010:Q1 2010:Q4 2011:Q3
ALBBIHKOSMKDMNESRBSEE6 median
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Promjene stope nezaposlenosti zabrinjavaju (procentnih poena, 2011/2008)
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Nivoi su visoki, posebno u KOS, MKD, BIH (stope nezaposlenosti)
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Istinska briga: spektar rasta broja osoba bez posla
(Promjena realnog BDP-a i zapošljavanja u SEE6 (lijevo) i MKD (desno) (po kvartalima 2011)
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Stope siromaštva su visoke ($2.5-5 ppp)
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Nakon gubitka prihoda 2008-9, rast nije baš pogodovao siromašnima, osim možda u CG
-14
-10
-6-2
26
Annu
al g
row
th ra
te %
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Expenditure percentiles
Growth incidence 95% confidence bounds
Growth in mean Growth at median
Mean growth rate
Serbia 2009 - 2010-4
0-2
00
2040
Ann
ual g
row
th ra
te %
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Expenditure percentiles
Growth incidence 95% confidence bounds
Growth in mean Growth at median
Mean growth rate
Montenegro 2009-2010
-60
-40
-20
020
Ann
ual g
row
th ra
te %
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Expenditure percentiles
Growth incidence 95% confidence bounds
Growth in mean Growth at median
Mean growth rate
FYR Macedonia 2009-2010
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A LITS kazuje da se ljudi osjećaju žesto pogođenima krizom,posebno u Srbiji...
0 20 40 60 80 100
Serbia
FYROM
BiH
Kosovo
Albania
Montenegro
Source: LiTS II, 2010.
(% of adults)
How much was your HH affected by the crisis?
A great deal A fair amount Just a little Not at all
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…uglavnom zbog gubljenja sati rada, zatvaranja radnog mjesta ili zatvaranja firme
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
BiH Kosovo Albania Serbia FYROM MontenegroSource: LiTS II, 2010.
(% of crisis-affected population )
Main crisis impact pathways
Reduction in wages or hours
Job loss or closed business
Reduced flow of remittances
Additional work undertaken
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…što sili ljude da primjenjuju neke mjere, uglavnom izbacujući “luksuzne” artikle, ali katkad
čak i hranu.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
BiH Montenegro Albania Serbia Kosovo FYROMSource: LiTS II, 2010.
(% of adult population)
Main crisis coping mechanisms
Reduced consumption of luxury goods
Reduced consumption of staple foods
Stopped buying medications / postponed doctor visits
Reduced vacations
Reduced consumption of alcohol / cigarettes
Delayed utilities payments / cut TV, phone, or internet
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IZGLEDI ZA SEE6GLOBALNI IZGLEDI – Dno ćemo doseći 2012, nakon toga
slijedi slabi rast
Real GDP Growth Assumptions2010 2011e 2012f 2013f 2014f
World 4.1 2.8 2.5 3.0 3.3
High-income countries 3.0 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.3Developing Countries 7.4 6.2 5.5 5.8 5.7
Memo:Euro Zone -1.8 1.6 -0.3 1.0 1.4
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Izgled: Rast SEE6 će dosegnuti dno u 2012. na nivou od 1.1%, nakon čega će se oporaviti na 2.6 u
2013. Rast realnog BDP-a(%)
2012 2013
ALB 1.6 2.5
BIH 0.5 1.5
KOS 4.0 4.1
MK 2.0 3.2
CG 0.5 1.5
SRB 0.5 3.0
SEE6 1.1 2.6
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Ključni izazovi politika za 2012-13: fiskalni i javni dug
• Usporen rast tokom 2012.• Nedovoljni rezultati prihoda• Dinamika i nivo javnog duga u CG, SRB, ALB• Ukupan iznos plaća i penzije (posebno BIH) • Financijska disciplina i dugovanja javnog sektora.
(CG, ALB, MKD)• Izbori u SRB, CG (2012) i ALB, MKD (2013)
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Posebna fiskalna pitanja: kašnjenja i garancije
• Kašnjenja u plaćanju se pojavljuju u SEE6• Privatni sektor (CG, ALB, MKD)• Javni sektor (ALB, MKD); Općine (CG)
• Kombinacija slabosti u upravljanju prihodima, kontroli financija na lokalnom nivou, kontroli preuzimanja obaveza, uskom prostoru kredita.
• Državne garancije – važne u pojedinim zemljama (npr. CG, SRB)
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Indeks realnog BDP-a po stanovniku (Sjeverna i kontinentalna Evropa = 100)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
5
10
15
20
25
EU11, SEE6 i Istočno Partnerstvo
EU11 SEE Eastern Partnership
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II. Razlozi za optimizam: u pravcu “zlatnog rasta”
– Zemlje SEE6 su sve integriranije sa Zapadnom Evropom i svijetom
– Zemlje SEE6 su značajno unaprijedile svoju vanjsku trgovinu i sofisticiranost trgovine
– Evropska “mašina konvergencije”— smanjenje jaza u prihodima po stanovniku – dostupna je za SEE6, ali samo uz strukturalne reforme
– Ali starenje i smanjenje radne snage predstavljaju veliki izazov
– Iskoristiti trgovinu i financijske tokove– SEE6 hvataju korak, ali ogrančene su inovacije, istraživanje i
razvoj– Reforma rada i vlade – ključni izazovi
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Rezime i Plan politika• 2012 – Teška godina; rizik širenja krize
• Kratkoročni izazovi: fiskalni, financijski, socijalni– Javni dug, dugovanja i garancije, financijska-kreditna
tržišta, nezaposlenost i siromaštvo
• Dugoročni izazovi: reforma rada i javnog sektora
• SEE6 reforme usidrene u evropskoj budućnosti