马克中国日报财经执行主编北京外国语大学名誉教授

What I perceive to be the challenges facing China’s economy

我对近来中国经济面临的挑战的理解 Why I believe there is indeed a glowing one.

为什么我相信未来是辉煌的

One thing that distinguishes the East from the West is a radically different work ethic.

完全不同的工作方式，是东、西方的差异之一。

Items 项目 East 东方 West 西方

每周工作时间 5.5 ～ 6 天 限制加班

每年的假期天数 10 天 25 天

长假前后的周末 加班 休息

China is a country committed to hard work.

中国是一个致力于勤劳工作的国家。 Economics is human science. It’s psychological.

经济，归根到底是人文科学，也就是心理学。 People here are ashamed of not working hard

whereas their European counterparts are shielded in a EU-wide equivalent of the iron rice bowl.

东方人因为不努力工作而感到羞耻，然而欧洲人在欧盟的庇护下享用着铁饭碗。

The troubles are purely because of the accumulated troubles of their worn out welfare societies.

在欧洲国家发生的问题，纯粹是因为他们挥度财富社会而积累的麻烦。

The labour laws induce sloth, indolence rather than hard working.

西方的劳动法导致的是懒惰、散漫而不是勤劳。 The British moves to reduce their structural deficit

英国已经开始减少福利开支等结构性赤字的行动

增加养老金 降低退休年龄 延长假期的权利 削减工时

Its hospitals are free so there is no incentive to save for a rainy day on the health front.

欧洲的医疗是免费的，因此也就不会激励人们在健康方面储蓄以备不时之需。

补贴医疗 It is avowedly a capitalist system

这是一个公然地资本主义制度

The US government had to abandon the market system, bailing out banks.

美国政府不得不放弃市场体系来拯救银行。 Banks were also bailed out in Europe.

在欧洲，银行也是被拯救的对象。

The money governments borrowed both in the US and Europe has to be repaid.

政府在美国或欧洲借的钱是必须偿还的。 “ PIIGS nations” are in danger of going

bankrupt.

所谓 PIIGS 国家，葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙都面临破产的危险。

There are several critical factors that China either already faces or soon will have to.

以下是一些中国已经面临或即将面临的重要问题：

出口 vs 海外需求的下降 劳动力和材料成本上升 人民币是否会升值和自由交易？ 中国要如何应对保护主义日益严重的欧美？ 针对中国的保护主义 中国如何规范其金融机构？ 中国如何提高农业的产出效率？ 美国如何生产比中国和其它国家更便宜的猪肉？

China’s trade surplus with the US fell

中国的贸易顺差从 2010 年的 3 ％下降到 1.4% 。 The government was improving policies so

companies could import more goods.

政府在改进政策以求企业能够进口更多的商品。

The world’s biggest factory is now the world’s second biggest importer.

世界最大的工厂现在是世界第二大进口商。

中国现在是日本、韩国、东南亚、巴西和南非的最大出口市场。

是欧盟国家的第二大出口市场 是美国的第三大出口市场

The Chinese government has initiated a program of increased domestic consumption.

中国政府启动了一个增加内需的方案。 That has not been as hard as some might

imagine.

这不象有些人想像的那么难。

The Chinese market will be the third or possibly higher consumer market at that time

那时中国就将成为第三甚至更大的消费市场

Credit controls 信贷缩紧 Rising labour 持续增长的劳动力 Material costs 原材料价格的上涨 Loan sharks 不规范的企业高利贷

launch asset-backed bonds to make it easier for small and medium businesses to borrow money.

Talks have already been held with Shenzhen Stock Exchange

推出资产抵押债券 谈判已经在进行

Banks:

Shied away from lending to SMEs

Charged higher interest rates

SMEs:

Lack bargaining power with banks.

银行 : 避开了对中小企业的放贷，或者收取更高的利率。

中小企业 :缺少与银行的议价能力。

Government:

Special fund

Financial derivatives, such as credit default swaps,

政府 : 专项资金 金融衍生工具，如信用违约互换 It is part of a trend toward a market economy.

这是走向市场经济的趋势。

The government has already signaled its intention to open up China to more overseas foreign direct investment.

政府已经表明中国将开放给更多海外直接投资。 It is keen to see money from overseas being

invested in the shares of mainland companies.

它渴望看到海外的资金投入给大陆股份企业。

上海证券交易所基本做好了准备，允许如汇丰中国、可口可乐等外国发行人卖股票

“as soon as possible when the time is ripe

The exchange has finished work on technological and regulatory requirements.

“时机成熟时应尽快启动交易” 技术和监管上的要求已经转换完成 the biggest change for China’s stock market

外国证券的交易将是中国股票市场未来五年最大的转变

The internationalization of the securities market will benefit the whole nation.

证券市场的国际化有利于整个国家。 在中国上市，让外国公司受益于更高的估值。 他们被允许使用中国货币，这将资助他们在这个世界第二大经济体中的扩张。

House prices are now reported to have fallen in 10 cities across China.

中国 10 个城市的房价已经开始下降。 Although that hurts those who bought at the

height of the boom, it means tomorrow’s mortgagees will be less saddled with debt and able to spend more.

虽然会打击那些高点买房人，这意味着日后的抵押人将背负更少的债务，有更多能力消费。

房价下降的另一部分原因是： 愿意从中国西部出来的外来工越来越少 That means more money in their back

pockets and an increased ability to spend it.’

这意味着他们兜里有更多的钱，也有更多的能力消费。 Dow Chemical Co is an example

陶氏化学就是一个向西部发展的例子

As China invests more in health and education there is less incentive to save.

中国在医疗和教育上的投资也导致百姓较少的储蓄。

Growth has fueled a remarkable increase in per capita income

A decline in the poverty rate from 85 percent in 1981 to 16 percent in 2005

经济增长对个人均收入显着增加起到积极作用 贫困率从 1981 年的 85％下降到 2005 年的 16％ poverty alleviation has always been at the top

of the agenda for the Chinese government.

扶贫一直是中国政府议事日程中的重要一项。

贫困人口 占农村人口百分比

1978 年 2.5亿 30.7％

2000 年 3000万 3 ％

“ The rural cooperative medical care scheme”

1.4 billion yuan in 2010 alone

Benefited about 46.15 million villagers

Offer aged rural villagers pensions

农村合作医疗计划的补贴，仅在 2010 年一年就达到14亿元人民币

约 4615万村民受益 不少地方政府已经开始给年纪大的村民发放养老金

The agriculture tax was abolished from 2006

Rural students have been exempted from tuition and miscellaneous fees from 2007.

From October this year, the State Council launched a project to provide free lunch to 26 million rural students in 680 counties on a trial basis.

从 2006 年的农业税被取消 从 2007 年农村学生已免交学杂费 从 2011 年 10月，国务院发起了一个项目，为 680 个县的

2600万农村学生试行提供免费的午餐

Central and local governments are also trying their best to help poverty

中央和地方政府都在尽力帮助贫困村民从条件苛刻的地方地方迁移到生活条件较好的地区。

Improving the life of rural residents in the country’s less-developed or underdeveloped areas will continue to be an important task for the governments at all levels in the years to come.”

提高在全国的欠发达或发展中地区农村居民的生活，还将是今后几年中各级政府的重要任务。”

“Remember what happened to Japan when it succumbed in 1985 to US pressure to revalue the yen.”

The result was a bubble that burst and an economy that has yet to recover.

“记住 1985 年迫于美国的压力，日元升值致使日本发生的情况。”当时的结果是市场泡沫破灭，经济到现在还没有完全恢复。

美国的问题是： 作为一个国家，它的积蓄太少，借用太多。把工业生产的很大一部分，转移到劳动力便宜的国家。拒绝向中国出口某些高科技产品求助于所谓的“量化宽松政策”印刷更多的纸币却没有在国内生产总值的比例上相应

增加

The exchange rate of the yuan is a sovereign issue.

It is a good thing for overseas investors to diversify away from the euro and the dollar.

人民币汇率是个主权问题，应该由中国独立确定。 2005-2010 年间 ,人民币持续大幅升值。 人民币升值对海外投资者的好事

What better than to buy the yuan?

比买入人民币更好的是什么？ Its chief executive, Isaac Souede, predicts the

yuan will appreciate another 30 percent in the next five to six years.

Permal 全球最大，历史最悠久的对冲基金集团的执行官，艾萨克预测人民币将在未来五至六年另有 30％的升值。

China is working on an agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to settle trade in yuan.

中国正在和东盟国家协商用人民币进行交易。 Pave the way for banks in China and ASEAN

countries to start exchanging yuan for ASEAN currencies.

中国与东盟的框架协议可能在今年年底或明年年初签署，将为中国和东盟国家的银行用人民币交易东盟货币铺好道路。

China has pledged to increase the yuan’s flexibility, while stressing that exchange rate policy will be reformed in a gradual and controlled manner and the currency’s basic stability will be maintained.

中国已承诺增加人民币的灵活性，同时强调，汇率政策将在一个渐进的和可控的方式下进行改革，并保持货币的基本稳定。

China’s yuan settlement in cross-border trade surged to 957.57 billion yuan in the first half of 2011, 13.3 times more than that for the same period of last year, according to statistics from the central bank.

中国的人民币跨境贸易结算在 2011 年上半年猛增至9575.7亿元人民币，比去年同期增长 13.3倍。

Plenty of groundwork has to be undertaken before the yuan can fully float internationally.

人民币可以全球范围内自由兑换之前，要进行充足的铺垫。

Historical backdrop

对照当年美国持续增加贸易顺差时，欧元债券市场发展的历史背景来看

The dim sum bonds denominated in yuan.

所谓的点心债券市场在快速发展 发行点心债券是以人民币计价 香港，新加坡和伦敦市场都渴望进入利润丰厚的点心债券市场。

It is not inconceivable that the yuan could become the next reserve currency.

人民币在可预见的将来成为储备货币不是不可想象的。

当然，投资者将把投资人民币作为长期、低风险的稳定的方法，而不是用不稳定的股权或债券来投资中国。

The dire economic situations in Europe and the US mean there will be rich pickings for Chinese businesses already in overseas markets and those wishing to enter them.

在欧洲和美国严峻的经济形势意味着已经进入或者希望进入海外市场的中国企业将会来摘取果实。

There will be bargains galore.

会有很多便宜可占的。

The road ahead will not be easy.

China has always been a cautious traveller.

前边的路并不平坦。即使是最谨慎的旅行者也会遇到无赖和陷阱，中国其实一直是非常小心的行者。

But the destination can be reached.

It is a place of prosperity and social harmony, a place at ease with itself.

但是目的地终究会达到，我相信这点。 这是繁荣、和谐的社会，人民安居乐业。

谢谢