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Solutions From S@R Jan12
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Transcript of Solutions From S@R Jan12
1© Copyright 2006 Strategy@Risk Ltd. All rights reserved
Value based Strategic Risk and Performance Management achieves a sustainable increase in enterprise value over time.It represents an important tool for planning as well as for performance measurement and for controlling purposes .
“S@R has set out to create models that boost income and save our clients time and money. Our models can give answers to both deterministic and stochastic questions, by linking dedicated ebitda models to holistic balance simulation taking into account all important factors describing the company. The basis is a real balance simulation model – not a simple cash flow forecast model.”
Presentation to:
Why S@R
For Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) to be value creating, it must be embedded in and connected directly to the enterprise’s strategy – that is what Strategy @ Risk provides, thus improving ERM through ‘Strategic Risk and Performance Management’ (SRM).
The S@R models provide:
1. Platform for comprehensive Strategic Risk and Performance Management and state of the art P&L and Balance simulation models.
2. The possibility to add uncertainty to all variables and calculations,
enabling valuation and decisions under uncertainty .
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S@R gives you the capability to achieve results through your ERM
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Value creation with S@R – Guide to why SRM should be on top managements agenda
Placing SRM in the corporate risk and finance lancscape can be tricky. S@R has developed the necessary methods and tools for securing better decision making, revealing total risk and increasing shareholder value towards corporate goals.
The figure depicts the relations between risk tolerance, the board’s risk indifference curves, risk appetite, risk capacity and the risk efficiency frontier.
The risk efficiency frontier is found as the locus of upside potential ratios where all unwanted risk/uncertainty have been mitigated. What is left is residual risk, assuming that the mitigation is effective.
The enterprise utility function gives the board’s preferences between risk and value.
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Downside Risk(Lower partial moment LPM2)
Shareh
olde
r value up
side
(Upper partia
l mom
ent U
PM1)
The Board's riskindifference curves
(Risk aversion)U1
Strategi
c RM
U2
Risk reduction Risk appetite
U3
ERM
EnterpriseRisk efficiency frontier
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S@R Value Based Strategic Risk and Performance Management
1. Enterprise wide – value based with all areas in scope and supports business decision making
2. All risk categories – financial, operational and strategic
3. Integrated – captures interactivity on a consistent and integrated basis, at enterprise and business segment level
4. Finance oriented ‐‐ Ties finance with risk
5. Aggregated – enterprise level risk exposure and appetite
6. Dynamic planning – to develop and evaluate strategies
6. Decision making – not just risk reporting
7. Risk versus return – mitigation and risk exploitation
8. Risk disclosures – integrates ERM information
9. Value impacts – includes enterprise and value of equity
10. Stakeholder focus – not only rating agency driven
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The S@R framework for Strategic Risk and Performance Management
Strategy@Risk offers clients a framework and solution that elevates the value of ERM and Business Management in general.
Be able to apply the reults for a range of purposes:
• Communicate risk
• Act on risk/opportunity
• Employ Business tactics
• Test and improve Strategic decisions
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Creation of Framework model
Implementationof the S&R software
ProblemDescription
Simulation and Reporting
EBITDA modelP&L and Balance
model
Valuationsimulation
Forecasts and distributions
Evaluation and treatment of
Results
Systemic Implementationof EBITDA model
Data entrytemplate for EBIDA model
Data for balancemodel template
Definition ofvalue and costdrivers and
their distributions
Dependencies ("Correlations") between cost
and value drivers
Companyenvironment:
taxes, interest rates
etc
Time frame
Quantification:
Opening balanceInventoriesTaxes, etc.
Legal requirements
Interest rates(yield curves)Exchange rates
Financial strategyetc.
S@R models create real value and deliver the insight that makes you capable of improving ERM
WHO?
WHAT?
Strategic Risk Credit Risk Market Risk Operational Risk
BoardCEOCFO
CFOTreasurer
Business UnitManager
Internal Audit
ISO standardsInsuranceSuppliersetc
SalesProcurementOperationsetc
DebitorsTrading LimitsCurrency etc.
InvestmentsMarketsInterest ratesHedgingetc.
The "Silo" ThinkingRegardless of maturety and level of ERM in the company.S@R and leading professionals* advise an initiative focused on Strategic Risk Management.This initiative will create value and ease the exisiting work in ERM projects.
• Eliminate silos, avoid and mitigate risk.
• Reveal risk in meeting strategic and operational objectives
*Mark L. Frigo and Richard J. Anderson , Kellstadt Graduate Graduate School of Business, DePaul University Chicago
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S@R adds value
• Release resources for other purposes than calculations – gain one tool that can be used for all types of simulations internally.
• S@R gives you strategic risk management capabilities that can be aligned with growth strategies, and help companies achieve their business priorities and goals.
• Avoid and mitigate risk.
• Achieve integration of strategic planning and risk management.
• Establish risk tolerance for the enterprise, and align risk appetite both for individual projects/investments as well as for the enterprise.
• Improve ways to assess and analyse risk capacity.
• Align risk management with the overall business strategy, respond to regulatory demands and improve their modeling and analytics capabilities.
• Create shareholder value from risk management.
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• Decide how much risk the investor can take?• Decide how much risk the investor need to take?• Evaluate alternative strategic investment options at risk?• Evaluate equity values and enterprise values in acquisitions at risk?• Improve predictability in operating earnings at risk that may impact
corporate financial position and performance?• Identify risk tolerance level?• Evaluate optimal financial hedging strategies?• Identify and benchmark an investment portfolio and/or individual
business units’ risk profiles?• Develop risk mitigating strategies?• Evaluate the effect of alternative risk retention and risk transfer
strategies?
Gain insight and analytical power in the intersection of Risk, Strategy and Finance
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S@R Generic Simulation Model
Economic Regime andStrategy
Production SpecificationEBITDA model
Economic Regime
Financial Strategy
Production Parameters
Cost Variables
Income Variables
Operating Strategy
Valuation Strategy
Market Variables
Simulation
Deterministic and Monte Carlo Risk
Reports Probability Distributions
Deterministic Model
Stochastic Risk Model
P & LBalance SheetEconomic and Financial IssuesValuation Issues
We deliver:
A Monte Carlo simulation model tool that easily links to your report and consolidation tools.
A customer tailored simulation model ready to use for a range of problems. Or standard industry models.
Services ensuring implementation, user friendliness and training of key personnel.
We understand, design and implement with no strain on the organization – you are up and running in short time with our full support.
http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/10/19/where-do-you-go-from-risk-mapping/ 10
P&L and Balance Simulation
Investments
Financing /Currency /
Macro
EBITDA
Taxes
Equity Value
Enterprise Value
Profit & Loss
Balance Sheet
0
50
100
150
200
250
90 115140165190215240265290315340365390415Interval Upper Limit
Freq
uenc
y0102030405060708090100
Prob
abili
ty (%
)
0
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60
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276281286291296301306311316321326331336341346351356361366371Interval Upper Limit
Freq
uenc
y
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)0
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276281286291296301306311316321326331336341346351356361366371Interval Upper Limit
Freq
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y
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Prob
abili
ty (%
)
0 10 20 80 90 100 1100
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
USD
Prob
abili
ty
OperatingIncome
OperatingExpenses
Profit Before Tax
Profit forthe period
0102030405060708090
100
-65 10 85 160 235 310 385
Freq
uenc
y
0102030405060708090100
Prob
abili
ty (%
)
0 100 200 300 400 5000
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
USD
Prob
abili
ty CurrentAssets
Fixed Assets
EquityLiabilities
In the S@R framework all items, whetherfrom the profit and loss Account or fromthe balance sheet, will have individual probability distributions (pdf). These pdf’sare generated by the combination of pdf’sfor the factors of production. Variance willincrease as we move down the items inthe profit and loss account.
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www.strategy‐at‐risk.com
Tore Olafsen Senior PartnerEmail: to@strategy‐at‐risk.com
Paal Fredrik Olafsen Senior PartnerEmail: po@strategy‐at‐risk.comPhone: +47 90775433
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Strategy@Risk is today a provider of advanced simulation models and services to clients.Our software, models and services are thoroughly tested, works flawlessly, and are used with the satisfaction of clients in Scandinavia and Europe for over a decade.Our cutting edge services and models address, analyze and solve a range of client problems in the intersection of risk, finance and strategy.Making customers better capable to reveal, analyse, plan, communicate and act on Strategic risk. This will increase profitability and stakeholder value.
• State of the art analysis incorporating all risk and uncertainty factors
• Complete and correct simulation models based on full accounts, financial and strategic regime, full cost, income and production structures
• Analysing full effect of strategies on project level as well as consequences for entity/group
• More than 60 different financial reports• Recommendations and conclusions on
designated topics• Full visualization of findings and results• Tailor made simulation model for client
use – or standard industry models• Complete data sets for simulations
Per ÅkenesPartner SwedenEmail: [email protected]: +46 708‐89 89 59