Skills for the future Skills for future Europe: New evidence from new forecast Vladimir Kvetan...

Skills for the future

Skills for future Europe: Skills for future Europe: New evidence from new forecastNew evidence from new forecast

Vladimir Kvetan

Cedefop


General picture• Challenges involved in implementing tools and principles

for education, training and learning • Connecting point - Learning outcomes • Wider policy strategy

– Need for increased action on national and EU levels – complementary approach

– Importance of improving cooperation between stakeholders

– Need for coherent approach for validating learning at the workplace


General picture (2)

• Key actions:– Increase of transparency of education and training to improve

the relevance of qualification– Develop common qualifications standards and curricula and

promotion of validation and competence measurement– Technical and operational support to all sectoral initiatives– Support and develop mutual trust and communication between

partners competent authorities and stakeholders– Identify and assess future skills and competences

• http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/events/18446.aspx


Cedefop’s skill needs analysisCedefop’s skill needs analysis

Forecasting Forecasting (macro trends)(macro trends)

Sectoral & Sectoral & occupational studiesoccupational studies

EmployerEmployer surveysurvey

Mismatch researchMismatch research

http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/identifying-skills-needs/index.aspx


The new Cedefop skills forecastThe new Cedefop skills forecast

• provides projections of skill supply and demand• provides first analysis/indicators of LM imbalances

Current approach:• is based on improved methodology and data• uses econometric modelling and time series• uses official data sources (primarily Eurostat: Europop

2010, National accounts and LFS; DG ECFIN)• covers EU-27, Norway, Switzerland (and CCs)• covers period up to 2020 • assumes modest recovery and a return to job growth


Key resultsKey results• more than 83 million job opportunities due to:

– a modest net increase in employment of around 8 million new jobs (expansion demand); and

– around 75 million jobs that will need to be filled as people retire or leave the workforce (replacement demand)

• job opportunities in all types of occupations, but most at the higher and lower end of the job spectrum possible risk of job polarisation

– the trend towards more skill-intensive jobs at all levels will continue and many traditional manual or routine jobs will decline

– Place for growth in non-routine tasks even for low skilled• Structural changes

– most job opportunities will be in services – Impact on manufacturing and primary industry not so hard as expected

• a more highly-qualified workforce, with more than 80% of people having at least medium-level qualifications in 2020

• skill demand will lag behind skill supply and brings risk of over-qualification in the short-term


Impact of the recession on the employment Impact of the recession on the employment in EU-27+in EU-27+

Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

205

210

215

220

225

230

235

240

245

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Million jobs crisis

5,5 million job losses

8 million new jobs

forecast


Impact of the recession on the employment Impact of the recession on the employment in EU-27+ (cont.)in EU-27+ (cont.)



Sectoral developmentsSectoral developments in Europe in Europe(EU 27)(EU 27)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Millions

Distribution & transport

Business & other services

Non-marketed services

Manufacturing

Construction

Primary sector & utilities



Employment in manufacturing sector (EU 27)



Growth and uncertainty: sectorsGrowth and uncertainty: sectors

Uncertainty High Low

Pharmaceuticals Manufacturing nes Mechanical Engineering Water Supply Motor Vehicles Retailing Construction Water Transport Distribution Communications Hotels & Catering Banking & Finance Land Transport etc Computing Services Air Transport Professional Services Insurance Other Business Services Education Miscellaneous Services

Hig

h

Health & Social Work Oil & Gas etc Agriculture etc Food, Drink & Tobacco Coal Wood & Paper Other Mining Printing & Publishing Textiles, Clothing & Leather Chemicals nes Manufactured Fuels Rubber & Plastics Metal Goods Non-Metallic Mineral Product Electronics Basic Metals Other Transport Equipment Electrical Eng. & Instruments Gas Supply

Gro

wth

rate

201

0-20

20

Low

Electricity

Public Administration & Defence

Source: Cedefop forecast 2012


Developments in occupationsDevelopments in occupations-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Legislators, senior offi cials and managers

Professionals

Technicians and associate professionals

Clerks

Service workers and shop and market sales workers

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

Craft and related trades workers

Plant and machine operators and assemblers

Elementary occupations

Net change (expansion demand) Replacement demand

83 million job opportunities between 2010-2020


million jobs


Structural and occupation specific Structural and occupation specific componentscomponents

-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Legis lators , senior offi cia ls and managers

Profess ionals

Technicians and associate profess ionals

Clerks

Service workers and shop and market sa les workers

Ski l l agricul tura l and fi shery workers

Craft and related workers

Plant and machine operators and assemblers

Elementary occupations

Structura l component Occupation specifi c componentSource: Cedefop (2012)


Demand for qualificationsDemand for qualifications

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

Low qualification

Medium qualification

High qualification

Net change (expansion demand) Replacement demand


million jobs


Labour force by qualificationLabour force by qualification

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2010 2020

Mill

ions

Low qualification Medium qualification High qualification

37 %

47 %

22 %

47 %

31 % 24 % 16 %

47 %

29 %



Highly qualified youth and womenHighly qualified youth and women



Ageing in Europe Ageing in Europe (change between 2010 and 2020)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

mill

ion

Population Labour force



Matching demand and supplyMatching demand and supply

Broadly: trends in both skill demand and supply go in the same direction

BUT

supply rises faster (highly qualified)

demand rises slower (crisis effect)

RISK OF SKILL MISMATCH


Matching demand and supply: Matching demand and supply: difficulty to hiredifficulty to hire

Source: Cedefop (2012)


Employment by qualificationsEmployment by qualifications

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020

Legislators,senior officialsand managers

Professionals Techniciansand associateprofessionals

Clerks Service shopand market

sales workers

Skilledagriculturaland fishery

workers

Craft andrelated trades

workers

Plant/machineoperators and

assemblers

Elementaryoccupations

High

Medium

Low

million jobs



Skills mix by occupation in manufacturing sector (EU 27)



Employment by qualificationsEmployment by qualifications (plant and machine operators) (plant and machine operators)



New data and results ONLINE New data and results ONLINE

Look for

at www.cedefop.europa.eu


ConclusionsConclusions

• High unemployment vs. skill shortages

• Due to the crisis supply of higher qualifications rises faster than demand

• Matching calls for the „right“ skillsMore detailed skill analysesPartnershipsGuidance and counselling


Thank you for your attention

More information:www.cedefop.europa.eu

[email protected]

Access the forecast data and results online at www.cedefop.europa.eu!

Skills for the future Skills for future Europe: New evidence from new forecast Vladimir Kvetan...

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