Simplex Infra 4Q FY 2013

7/28/2019 Simplex Infra 4Q FY 2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly Highlights Standalone

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 3QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)Net sales 1,486 1,796 1,352 (17.2) 10.0Operating profit 145 156 130 (7.0) 11.8

Adjusted Net profit 18 26 12 (30.9) 49.8Source: Company, Angel Research

Simplex Infrastructures (Simplex) reported a disappointing set of numbers for

4QFY2013 owing to slow moving order book (~20% of total order book)

and working capital pressures due to delay in payments from clients. The

company has secured orders worth `6,306cr in FY2013, taking the orderbook to`15,463cr (2.7x trailing revenue) as of 4QFY2013.

Slow moving orders impact execution: On the top-line front, the companyreported revenues of`1,486cr for 4QFY2013, a decline of 17.2% yoy, and was

below our estimate of `1,691cr. The revenue contribution from domestic and

overseas operations stood at 85% and 15%, respectively, for FY2013. On the

operating front, Simplex posted an EBITDA of`145cr in 4QFY2013, indicating a

decline of 7.0% yoy; the EBITDA margin stood at 9.8% and was above our

estimate of 8.8%. On the bottom-line front, the company reported an adjusted

PAT of `18cr for the quarter, a decline of 38.5% yoy, which was below our

estimate of `21cr respectively. This was mainly due to a lower-than-expected

revenue growth and high interest cost during the quarter.

Outlook and valuation: Simplex has not been performing well on the revenuefront since the last 2-3 consecutive quarters due to slow moving orders and

delays in payments from clients. However, the company has a strong order book

(`15,463cr; 2.7x trailing revenue) and we expect execution to pick up in

2HFY2014. We introduce FY2015 estimates, and build in a modest improvement

in the execution cycle from 2HFY2014. We estimate revenue and PAT CAGR of

9% and 32% over FY2013-15E. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with atarget price of `131, valuing the company at 7x FY2015E earnings.Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 5,983 5,885 6,296 7,020% chg 24.5 (1.6) 7.0 11.5

Adj.Net Profit 89 53 59 93% chg (28.2) (40.5) 10.5 57.5

EBITDA (%) 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.6

FDEPS (`) 18.1 10.8 11.9 18.7P/E (x) 5.7 9.5 8.6 5.5

P/BV (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

RoE (%) 7.8 4.3 4.5 6.7

RoCE (%) 10.7 8.6 8.8 9.7

EV/Sales (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.8 5.7 5.7 5.3

OB/Sales (x) 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4

Order Inflows 6,561 6,117 6,954 7,899

% chg (18.2) (6.8) 13.7 13.6

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUYCMP `103

Target Price `131

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt (` cr) 2,595

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 55.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 21.6

FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.6Indian Public / Others 10.8

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 4.8 21.8 19.2

Simplex (32.6) (54.0) (78.6)

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

507

0.8

264/101

884

Infrastructure

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

2

19,760

5,986

SINF.BO

SINF@IN

Viral Shah022-39357800 Ext: 6842

[email protected]

Simplex InfrastructuresPerformance Highlights

4QFY2013 Result Update | Infrastructure

May 31, 2013


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Simplex Infra | 4QFY2013 Result Update

May 31, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 3QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Net Sales 1,486 1,796 1,352 (17.2) 10.0 5,821 5,924 (1.7)Total Expenditure 1,341 1,640 1,222 (18.2) 9.8 5,283 5,390 (2.0)Operating Profit 145 156 130 (7.0) 11.8 538 534 0.7OPM (%) 9.8 8.7 9.6 107bp 16bp 9.2 9.0 23bp

Interest 77 68 74 12.8 3.7 289 228 26.6

Depreciation 50 48 51 3.5 (2.0) 200 183 9.4

Non Operating Income 7 2 14 185.6 (53.1) 42 18 138.8

Nonrecurring items - 3 (1) (100.0) (100.0) - (7) (100.0)

Profit Before tax 25 46 19 (44.2) 36.7 90 133 0.8Tax 8 16 7 (54.4) 3.4 31 44 (30.9)

Net Profit before MI 18 29 11 (38.5) 57.9 60 89 (33.0)PAT (%) 1.2 1.6 0.8 (42)bp 37bp 1.0 1.5 (48)bpMinority Interest (MI) - - - - - - -Net Profit after MI 18 26 12 (30.9) 49.8 60 96 (37.6)Adj. PAT (%) 1.2 1.4 0.9 (47bp (2)bp 1.0 1.6 (59)bp

Adj. FDEPS 3.6 5.3 2.4 (30.9) 49.8 12.1 19.4 (37.6)Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:4QFY2013 Actual vs Estimates

(` cr) Estimates Actual Variation (%)Net Sales 1,691 1,486 (12.1)

EBITDA 149 145 (2.4)

EBITDAM (%) 8.8 9.8 97bp

Interest and Financial Charges 70 77 8.9

Adj. PAT 21 18 (14.3)


Slow moving orders impact execution

On the top-line front, the company reported revenues of`1,486cr for 4QFY2013,

a decline of 17.2% yoy, and was below our estimate of`1,691cr. This was mainly

due to (a) slow moving order book (~20% of total order book) and (b) working

capital pressures due to delay in payments from clients. The revenue contribution

from domestic and overseas operations stood at 85% and 15%, respectively, for

FY2013.

The Management has guided for a revenue growth of ~10% in FY2014; it expects

order inflows to be in the range of `7,000-8,000cr in FY2014. We believe the

company would be able to meet its guidance in terms of order inflows.


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May 31, 2013 3

Exhibit 3:Execution performance disappoints


Exhibit 4:Revenue mix (FY2013, %)


Slower execution hurts profitabilityOn the operating front, Simplex posted an EBITDA of `145cr in 4QFY2013,

indicating a decline of 7.0% yoy. The EBITDA margin stood at 9.8% and was

above our estimate of 8.8%. Going forward, given the current order book mix, we

estimate Simplex to report EBITDA margins in the range of 9.5-10%. On the

bottom-line front, the company reported an adjusted PAT of`18cr for 4QFY2013,

a decline of 38.5% yoy, and also below our estimate of`21cr. This was mainly due

to lower-than-expected revenue growth and high interest cost during the quarter.

Exhibit 5:EBITDAM back on track


Exhibit 6:Slower execution hurts profitability


Order book analysis

The companys order book stood at `15,493cr (excluding L1 orders of

~`1,572cr), a growth of 1.8% yoy, thus converting into an order book to sales

ratio of 2.7x trailing revenues. Simplex had secured orders worth `2,052cr and

`6,306cr in 4QFY2013 and FY2013 respectively. Going forward, we expect the

domestic segment to drive revenue growth, which constitutes 85% of the total order

book.

1,

322

1,

569

1,

796

1,

585

1,

398

1,

352

1,

486

22.2

34.5 31.3

28.1

5.7

(13.9)(17.2)

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)

19

22

10

16

33

11

Buildings

Roads &BridgesIndustrial

Marine

Pilling

Power

UrbanInfra

125

132

156

153

119

130

145

9.5

8.4

8.7

9.7

8.5

9.69.8

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


EBITDA (`cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)

24

21

26

28

13

12

18

1.8

1.4

1.4

1.8

0.9 0.9

1.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.61.8

2.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)


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May 31, 2013 4

Exhibit 7:Order inflows Segment wise (%)


Exhibit 8:Order backlog Segment wise (%)


Outlook and valuation

Simplex has not been performing well on the revenue front since the last 2-3

consecutive quarters due to slow moving orders and delays in payments from

clients. However, the company has a strong order book (`15,463cr; 2.7x trailing

revenue) and we believe execution should pick up in 2HFY2014. The Management

has guided for a revenue growth of ~10% in FY2014; it expects order inflows to

be in the range of`7,000-8,000cr in FY2014. We believe the company would be

able to meet its guidance in terms of order inflows. Further, Simplex is a well-

diversified player in terms of sectors, geographies and client mix, and unlike its

peers, has limited exposure to road BOT assets.

We introduce FY2015 estimates, building in a modest improvement in the

execution cycle from 2HFY2014 onwards. We estimate revenue and PAT CAGR of

9% and 32% over FY2013-15E. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock, with atarget price of `131, valuing the company at 7x FY2015E earnings.

Investment argument

Diversified play

Simplex is one of the oldest infrastructure companies in India (over eight decades

of work log). Since inception, the company has been involved in different segments

of the infrastructure sector, from piling (1924) to power (1960), to roads, railways

and bridges (1980), and the real estate business (2007). The company has

executed ~2,400 projects and is currently involved in >150 ongoing projects in

India and abroad. This reflects the company's execution capabilities, and ability to

successfully execute complex and numerous projects on time. The company is also

well spread geographically, with a presence in the Middle-Eastern countries of

Qatar, Oman, Dubai and Abu Dhabi and is now venturing into newer

geographies such as Bangladesh. In terms of its client profile, Simplex has a

healthy mix of government and private sector projects. This successful

diversification has not only provided the company the experience of executing

different and complex projects but has also qualified it to bid for bigger ticket-size

projects going ahead.

16

39

5

6

3

15

2 15 Buildings

Bridges

Industrial

Marine

Pilling

Power

Rail

Urban Infra

25

297

3

3

20

2

10 Buildings

Bridges

Industrial

Marine

Pilling

Power

Rail

Urban Infra


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May 31, 2013 5

Exhibit 9:Recommendation summary

Company CMP TP Rating Top-line (` cr) EPS (`) P/E (x) OB/FY12 FY13E FY14E CAGR (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E CAGR (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E Sales (x)

ABL 201 255 Buy 1,853 1,928 2,234 9.8 16.0 18.0 22.2 17.7 12.6 11.2 9.1 2.3CCCL 11 - Neutral 1,931 2,281 2,492 13.6 (3.3) 0.7 2.0 - (3.4) 16.4 5.6 2.2

IRB Infra 119 157 Buy 3,687 3,997 4,312 8.1 16.7 15.7 16.6 (0.3) 7.1 7.6 7.2 2.4

ITNL 167 230 Buy 6,645 7,444 8,041 10.0 26.8 29.8 32.1 9.4 6.2 5.6 5.2 2.2

IVRCL 18 35 Buy 3,773 6,287 6,836 34.6 (3.9) 2.3 3.0 - - 7.5 5.8 4.9

JP Assoc. 66 90 Buy 13,358 14,850 15,631 8.2 2.2 2.5 2.9 13.8 29.8 26.0 23.1 -

L&T 1,402 1,761 Buy 60,873 68,946 78,040 13.2 67.5 77.9 88.3 14.4 20.8 18.0 15.9 2.5

NCC 31 42 Buy 5,725 6,167 6,945 10.1 2.4 2.7 3.6 22.0 12.8 11.7 8.6 3.2

Punj Lloyd 43 - Neutral 11,717 12,954 14,740 12.2 (0.2) 0.5 0.9 - - 84.9 46.3 1.9

Sadbhav 109 153 Buy 1,565 2,511 2,736 32.2 1.5 7.3 7.8 131.3 75.0 15.1 14.0 3.3

Simplex In. 103 131 Buy 5,897 6,308 7,033 9.2 10.8 11.9 18.7 31.9 9.5 8.6 5.5 2.7Unity Infra 29 45 Buy 2,180 2,455 2,734 12.0 12.7 14.6 14.9 8.0 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0


Exhibit 10:SOTP breakup

Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP `

ABL 87 34 - - 168 66 - - - - 255

CCCL 16 100 - - - - - - - - 16

IRB Infra 45 29 - - 112 71 - - - - 157

ITNL 80 35 - - 120 52 - - 30 13 230IVRCL 15 43 - - - - 20 57 - - 35

JP Assoc. 24 27 23 25 - - - - 43 48 90

L&T 1,318 75 - - - - 443 25 - - 1,761

NCC 23 55 - - 7 17 - - 12 29 42

Punj Lloyd 64 100 - - - - - - - - 64

Sadbhav 54 35 - - 99 65 - - - - 153

Simplex In. 131 100 - - - - - - - - 131Unity Infra 45 100 - - - - - - - - 45


Company background

Simplex is one of the oldest construction companies in India, based in Kolkata.

Over the years, Simplex has diversified across various segments to encash upon

the untapped opportunities emerging in the construction business and has

delivered on an excellent track record. The company is present across

eight segments buildings (25% of order book), bridges (5%), industrial (10%),

marine (1%), pilling (3%), power (23%), rail and roads (24%) and

urban infrastructure (8%).


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May 31, 2013 6

Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 4,552 4,808 5,983 5,885 6,296 7,020Other operating income 12 16 26 12 11 12Total operating income 4,564 4,824 6,010 5,897 6,308 7,033% chg (3.1) 5.7 24.6 (1.9) 7.0 11.5

Total Expenditure 4,110 4,333 5,477 5,361 5,711 6,356R.M. consumed 1,856 1,705 2,306 2,252 2,336 2,619

Construction expenses 580 250 293 259 277 309

Employee expenses 1,472 1,711 1,972 2,015 2,217 2,439

SG&A 202 668 907 835 881 990

EBITDA 454 491 532 536 596 677% chg 12.5 8.1 8.5 0.7 11.2 13.5

(% of Net Sales) 9.9 10.2 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.6

Depreciation & Amortisation 157 167 189 206 213 226

EBIT 297 324 344 330 383 451% chg 9.2 9.1 6.1 (4.0) 16.1 17.6

(% of Net Sales) 6.5 6.7 5.7 5.6 6.1 6.4

Interest & other Charges 122 148 231 290 346 369

Other Income 26 24 21 43 50 56

(% of PBT) 13.0 12.0 15.6 51.8 57.9 40.7

Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 201 200 133 83 87 138% chg 15.8 (0.1) (33.5) (37.7) 5.0 58.7

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - (5.8) - - -

PBT (reported) 201 200 127 83 87 138Tax 71.5 74.4 44.7 30.9 29.6 47.0

(% of PBT) 35.6 37.1 35.1 37.3 34.0 34.0

PAT (reported) 129 126 83 52 57 91Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - -

Less: Minority interest (MI) 1.9 1.4 (1.0) (1.2) (1.4) (1.5)

Prior period items - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported) 127 125 84 53 59 93ADJ. PAT 127 125 89 53 59 93% chg 3.0 (2.0) (28.2) (40.5) 10.5 57.5(% of Net Sales) 2.8 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.3

Basic EPS (`) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 11.9 18.7Fully Diluted EPS (`) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 11.9 18.7% chg 3.0 (2.0) (28.2) (40.5) 10.5 57.5

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with

previous year numbers


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May 31, 2013 7

Balance sheet (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 10 10 10 10 10 10Share App Money - warrants - - - - - -

Reserves & Surplus 968 1,078 1,197 1,273 1,327 1,413

Shareholders Funds 978 1,088 1,207 1,283 1,336 1,423Minority Interest 5 6 6 10 8 7Total Loans 1,302 1,661 2,132 2,656 2,956 3,156

Deferred Tax Liability 88 138 195 205 209 216

Total Liabilities 2,374 2,893 3,539 4,154 4,510 4,802APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 1,277 1,509 1,804 1,903 2,003 2,103

Less: Acc. Depreciation 289 384 525 670 819 977

Net Block 988 1,125 1,279 1,233 1,184 1,126Capital Work-in-Progress 19 27 44 44 44 44

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 3 23 54 93 93 93Current Assets 3,125 3,766 4,909 5,764 6,193 6,828Inventories 671 812 879 798 861 958

Sundry Debtors 1,806 2,298 1,689 2,305 2,419 2,697

Cash 110 106 73 83 87 99

Loans & Advances 398 405 630 793 819 913

Other 140 145 1,638 1,785 2,007 2,161

Current liabilities 1,760 2,048 2,747 2,981 3,004 3,289

Net Current Assets 1,364 1,718 2,162 2,783 3,188 3,539Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 2,374 2,893 3,539 4,154 4,510 4,802Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with



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May 31, 2013 8

Cash flow statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 201 200 127 83 87 138

Depreciation 81 95 141 144 149 158Change in Working Capital (212) (357) (478) (611) (401) (339)

Less: Other income (26) (24) (21) (43) (50) (56)

Direct taxes paid (71) (74) (45) (31) (30) (47)

Cash Flow from Operations (28) (160) (275) (458) (245) (146)(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (63) (241) (312) (99) (100) (100)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (1) (20) (31) (39) - -

Other income 26 24 21 43 50 56

Cash Flow from Investing (37) (237) (322) (95) (50) (44)Issue of Equity (21) - (0) - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 82 358 471 524 300 200

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (12) (12) (11) (11) (6) (6)

Others 7 47 104 50 4 7

Cash Flow from Financing 56 393 564 563 299 201Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (9) (4) (33) 10 4 12

Opening Cash balances 119 110 106 73 83 87Closing Cash balances 110 106 73 83 87 99




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May 31, 2013 9

Key RatiosY/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 4.0 4.1 5.7 9.5 8.6 5.5P/CEPS 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.6

P/BV 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Dividend yield (%) 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.7 5.7 5.3

EV / Total Assets 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 11.9 18.7

EPS (fully diluted) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 11.9 18.7

Cash EPS 57.5 58.9 56.2 52.5 54.9 64.4

DPS 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Book Value 197.7 219.9 244.0 259.4 270.1 287.7

Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 6.5 6.7 5.7 5.6 6.1 6.4

Tax retention ratio 64.4 62.9 64.9 62.7 66.0 66.0

Asset turnover (x) 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5

ROIC (Post-tax) 8.8 8.1 7.1 5.5 6.0 6.5

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.2 6.3 7.9 7.6 8.2 8.0

Leverage (x) 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.1

Operating ROE 11.9 10.5 5.9 1.6 1.4 3.4

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 13.0 12.3 10.7 8.6 8.8 9.7

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 13.8 12.9 11.1 8.9 9.1 10.0

ROE 13.5 12.1 7.8 4.3 4.5 6.7

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.4

Inventory / Sales (days) 54 56 51 52 48 47

Receivables (days) 139 155 121 124 137 133

Payables (days) 156 159 159 194 190 180

Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 234 253 258 325 341 333

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1

Net debt to EBITDA 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.8 4.8 4.5

Interest Coverage 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2




10/10


May 31, 2013 10

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Simplex Infra

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Simplex Infra 4Q FY 2013

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