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Transcript of SIIS geopolitics of the pacific sphere in the 21st 1 Geopolitics of the Pacific Sphere in the 21st...
03/11/2013
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Geopolitics of the Pacific Sphere in the 21st century
Swiss Institute of International Studies
Zürich, 6 November 2013
Jean‐Pierre Lehmann (Jean‐[email protected] Professor, IMDFounder, The Evian Group@IMD
Visiting Professor, Hong Kong UniversityVisiting Professor, NIIT University (Rajasthan)
“The Mediterranean is the ocean of the past,
The Atlantic, the ocean of the present,
And the Pacific, the ocean of the future.”
1889, U.S. Secretary of State John Hay, author of the “Open Door Policy”
Part I China in the Global Scheme of Things
In 1949 Mao changed China
In 1979 Deng changed the world
Jonathan Fenby, Tiger Head – Snake Tails
The Chinese miracle is best summed up by observing that in 1978 Deng said that China could not do without global capitalism;
three decades later it is clear that global capitalism cannot do without China!
Rajiv Kumar
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Lin Zexu Letter of Advice to Queen Victoria
http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/core9/phalsall/texts/com‐lin.html
But after a long period of commercial intercourse, there appear among the crowh of barbarians both good persons and bad, unevenly. Consequently there are those who smuggle opium to seduce the Chinese people and so cause the spread of the poison to all provinces. Such persons who only care to profit themselves, and disregard their harm to others, are not tolerated by the laws of heaven and are unanimously hated by human beings. His Majesty the Emperor, upon hearing of this, is in a towering rage. He has especially sent me, his commissioner, to come to Kwangtung, and together with the governor‐general and governor jointly to investigate and settle this matter.
By what right do they then in return use the poisonous drug to injure the Chinese people? Let us ask, where is your conscience? I have heard that the smoking of opium is very strictly forbidden by your country; that is because the harm caused by opium is clearly understood. Since it is not permitted to do harm to your own country, then even less should you let it be passed on to the harm of other countries ‐‐ how much less to China!
ChinaAugust 1945
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“The Chinese People Have Stood up!”
“Never will China be humiliated again!”
LIBERATIONOctober 1949
China's "Peaceful Rise" to
Great‐Power Status
Zheng Bijian
Foreign Affairs, September/October 2005
“The most important strategic choice the Chinese made [in the
late 1970s] was to embrace economic globalization rather than detach themselves from it.”
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China’s global trajectory
Part III An Asia‐Centric 21st Centuryin a Multipolar World
Following:
The European 19th Century (1815‐1914)
The American 20th Century (1941‐2003)
Europe the Centre of the Universe
“A European could survey the world in 1913 as the Greek gods might have surveyed it from the snowy heights of Mount Olympus: themselves above, the
teeming earth below.”
Charles Emmerson, 1913: The Year Before the Great War
“The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably
expect their early delivery upon his doorstep; he could at the same moment and by the same means adventure his wealth in the natural
resources and new enterprises of any quarter of the world, and share, without exertion or even
trouble, in their prospective fruits and advantages;..... . He could secure forthwith, if he
wished it, cheap and comfortable means of transit to any country or climate without passport or other formality, .... . But, most
important of all, he regarded this state of affairs as normal, certain, and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement ... .”
John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace
28 June 1914
Meanwhile:There was war
Between China & Japan 1894‐95
And:A Major Revolutionin China (1911)
But globally these were very peripheral affairs in the European century ………….
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Yukichi Fukuzawa (1835-1901)
Japan in the European CenturyJapan – the only non‐Western industrial and imperial power
“It has been our fate as a nation not to have ideologies, but to be one”.
(Richard Hofstadter)
“I have never faltered, and I will never falter, in my belief that enduring peace and the welfare of nations are indissolubly connected with friendliness, fairness, equality and the maximum practicable degree of freedom in international trade.”
Cordell Hull
“No state is likely to match theUS in the four key dimensionsof power –
military,economic, technological, and cultural –
that confer global political clout.”Zbigniew Brzezinski
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Japan Joins the American CenturyPM Abe to Pres Obama: «Japan is back»
But can/will Japan join the Asian century?
Part III Defining Dynamics ofEast Asia in the New Global Disorder
Economics ‐ growth‐ business model‐ locomotive
Demographics ‐ urbanisation‐ aspiring classes‐ aging/youth dividend
Climate change & environment
Resources – water/energy/food
Geopolitics ‐ territorial disputes‐ nuclear proliferation‐ legacy of the past
East Asia Was Transformed
From the World’s Most Economically Backward
& Conflict Area
to the World’s Fastest Growth Area
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Successful Growth Narratives1950 – 2005/ 7% aag for 25 years
Country Period of High Growth Income pc at the beginning
Income pc at the end
Botswana 1960-2005 210 3800
Brazil 1950-1980 960 4000
China 1961-2005 105 1400
Hong Kong 1960-1997 3100 29900
Indonesia 1966-1997 200 900
Japan 1950-1983 3500 39600
Korea 1960-2001 1100 13200
Malaysia 1967-1997 790 4400
Malta 1963-1994 1100 9600
Oman 1960-1999 950 9000
Singapore 1967-2002 2200 25400
Taiwan 1965-2002 1500 16400
Thailand 1960-1997 330 2400
The reverse domino theory
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But … rememberEconomic forecasters were created by God to make weather forecasters look good! Demographics
China is agingIndia is booming
Both have severe gender imbalance
Growth and Environment in China
• Between 2000 and 2005, China has increased 70% of energy consumption and 75% of coal consumption.
• Dependence on coal for nearly 70% of it’s energy supply contributes more than ¼ of global emission.
• Cheap source of energy for electricity but it is also “dirty”. It causes local pollution, acid rain, and higher carbon emissions (CO2) than oil and natural gas.
• Air pollution by vehicles and factories.
• Social implications like migration, public health.
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Traffic jam in August, along a highway leading to Beijing, stretched over 100km and lasted for nine days.
East Asia’s
Geopolitical
Fault‐lines
Japan’sNeighbourhoodIssues
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http://micgadget.com/24215/infographic‐china‐military‐vs‐u‐s‐military/
«Asia faces a daunting water crisis that threatensits economic and political rise and environmentalsustainability»
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Tibetan Plateau Map of dams in China
China`s Three Gorges Dam
Part IV Global (Non‐) Governance
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“a pantomime horse manned by a troupe of slapstick clowns”Alan Beattie, FT International Economics Editor
The WTO Dying Doha Doldrums – A Bali Bailout?
Part V Conclusions
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East Asia & the New Global Disorder
Weaknesses
• Regional institutions• Regional coordination• Regional geopolitics• Environment• Resources (water)• Demographics• Inequality• Rule of law• Leadership• Soft power
Strengths
• Growth• Regional economics• Supply chains• Global clout• Business• Entrepreneurship• Education• Diasporas• Socio‐cultural dynamics• Pragmatism
The Rise of the Great PowersTable of Contents
#1 Portugal
#7 Japan
#8 Russia
#6 Germany
#5 France
#4 United Kingdom
#3 Netherlands
#9 United States
#2 Spain
China 2030:Building a Modern,
Harmonious, and CreativeHigh Income Society
China’s path: 1978 to 2030A new development strategy for 2030
Six strategic directionsOvercoming obstacles to reform
World Bank
A new development strategy for 2030
The six strategic directions:
• Recalibrate the role of government and the private
sector to strengthen the market‐based economy;• Encourage system‐wide “open” innovation• Grow green • Promote equality of opportunity and basic social protection for all• Build a strong fiscal system aligned with the evolving role of government• Develop win‐win relations with the rest of the world
China in 2030
If China seizes its opportunities, meets itschallenges, and manages its risks, by 2030 it
will become:
• A high income economy
• with harmonious social, environmental, andglobal relations
• driven by creativity and the power of ideas
China and the New World
Whether it’s looking out over the next few years or the next quarter‐century, how the world’s most populous country handles the many developmental challenges it faces, will go a long way toward determining what kind of world we inhabit.
Pick an issue – the environment, the military, international affairs or the global economy – China’s choices will have a major impact on Asia and the world.
If China makes the wrong decisions, the result will be chilling, not only for the country’s 1.3 billion citizens but for many people beyond its borders as well.
Conversely, a China that successfully makes the transformation to a relatively affluent, open society will be both an inspiration to other countries and a locomotive that will help to power the world’s economies.
Supachai Panitchpakdi
China and the WTO: Changing China, Changing World Trade (2002) with Mark Clifford