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Session 27 Bo Lind
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Transcript of Session 27 Bo Lind
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Guidebok för riskhantering av vägar i ett föränderligt klimat:
RIMAROCC
Bo Lind:
Statens Geotekniska Institut
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Att utveckla en gemensam metodik för riskanalys och riskhantering av vägar med hänsyn till ett förändrat klimat I Europa
Partners
– SGI: Swedish Geotechnical Institute (Sweden)
– Egis: Engineering, Project Development, and motorway Infrastructure Operations (France)
– Deltares: Research and Engineering in Water, Soil and Infrastructure (Netherlands)
– NGI: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (Norway)
Syftet med RIMAROCC
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Programme Leader
– Håkan Nordlander, SRA, SE
Steering Group
• Åsa Lindgren, SRA, SE, (contact person)
• Geoff Richards, (former) Highways Agency, UK
• Alberto Compte, Eva Ruiz-Ayúcar Berlinches, CEDEX, ES
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Feedback
loop
3.
Risk
analy
sis
4.
Risk
evalu
ation
5.
Risk
mitig
ation
6.
Impl
eme
n-
tatio
n of
actio
n
plan
s
2. Risk
identific
ation
7.
Monit
oring
revie
w,
capit
ali-
zatio
n
1.
Cont
ext
analy
sis
Communication
– Består av sju steg– Följer i stort ISO 31000 (FORMALISERAD/TRANSPARENT)– Kompatibel och kan fungera tillsammans med existerande
metoder– För riskhantering i alla skalor (structure, section, network,
territory).
The RIMAROCC METHOD
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
How to use the RIMAROCC Method
1. Guidebook to the RIMAROCC Method
2. Case study Network level, France
3. Case study Network level, The Netherlands
4. Case study Section level, Noeway
5. Case study Structure level, Sweden
6. Technical background report
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Extreme
rainfall events
Seasonal and
annual average
rainfall
Sea level
riseMax
temperature
and consecutive
hot days
Draught
Snowfall
Thaw (cycles)
Frost
Extreme
Wind speed
Fog days
Critical climate parameters
Critical climate variables
Major risks to road infrastructure
Extreme rainfall events (heavy showers and long rain periods)
Flooding of roadways
Road erosion, landslides and mudslides that damage roads
Overloading of drainage systems, causing erosion and flooding
Traffic hindrance and safety
- weighted according to their importance for the road sector(1; useful to 4; of primary importance)
- the amount of change is marked, from significant increase,++, to significant decrease --
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Part 1- Basis for climate and
risk management
Part 2 - Method and Guidance
part 3 - Case studies
A Guidebook
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
RIMAROCC-metodiken består av sju steg, med ett antal del-steg. Stegen presenteras på ett enhetligt sätt – en sammanfattande presentation av syftet med momentet samt en lista på del-steg.Del-stegen är utformade på följande sätt:
a) Objectives – describing the objectives of the sub-stepb) Output – describing the outcome of the sub-stepc) Method – presenting the recommended methods or
procedures d) Data collection – describing what data is needed to perform
the sub-step and how to obtain it. e) Examples – each sub-step is provided with an example to
improve the readability. More examples can be found in the case studies.
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Step 1 – CONTEXT ANALYSIS
1. Objectives- SYFTE
- ORGANISATION och OMGIVANDE FÖRUTSÄTTNINGAR
- DEFINIERA KRITERIER FÖR RISKANALYSEN
2. Sub-steps
•Establish a general context (study area, organisation etc)
•Establish a specific context for a particular scale of analysis (stakeholders etc)
•Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted to each particular scaleof analysis
Arbetsmetod; skrivbord – fält – expertbedömning, etc
Engångsarbete
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Example: the specific context for a network scale analysis, France
RIMAROCC
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Example: risk criteria and indicators - section scale analysis, Norway
Risk criteria and indicators on the section scale are presented in three tables;
a) criteria for categorising exposure (exempel nedan)
b) criteria for assessing vulnerability (e.g. design standards, forecast time)
c) criteria for assessing consequences (persons, property etc.)
Criteria for assessing exposure Low Medium High Very high
E1:Frequency of key climate conditions/past extreme events
<0.001/yr 0.001/yr-0.01/yr
0.01/yr-0.1/yr
> 0.1/yr
E2: Exposure duration Hours Days Weeks Months
E3: Exposed area Small area Large area
E4: Exposed objects/people Small number
Large number
Klimathändelsen
ExponeringstidExponeringsområdeExponerade personer
(1) (4)(3)(2)
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Step 2 – RISK IDENTIFICATION
1.Objectives
- lista tänkbara oönskade händelser
2. Sub-steps
Baseras på riskdefinition i tre delar
– Identify threats ex. KLIMATFAKTORER
– Identify vulnerabilities TILLGÅNGAR/FUNKTIONER
– Identify possible consequences DIREKTA el INDIREKTA
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Example of vulnerabilities analysed on a network scale, France
Exposure to climate events
Section Length in km
Age / design
standards
Traffic (veh./ day) Current
situation With CC
(estimates) *
Sensitive elements in
the infrastructure
AX-1 10-15 < 1960 60,000 – 70,000
Overflow for Q10
+ 10 % additional flow
Undersized drainage system
AX-4 25-30 1960-1970
40,000 – 50,000
Extreme wind speed > 120 km/h
+ 5 % Bridge showing structural defects
AY-1 20-25 1980-1990
20,000 -30,000
Average seasonal rainfall: 500 mm
+ 5 % Hydromorphic grounds
AY-2 20-25 1980-1990
20,000 – 30,000
Average number of frost days: 20
- 5 % Pavement cracks
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Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Step 3 – RISK ANALYSIS
1. Objectives- förståelse av riskerna och för vilka risker som behöver åtgärdas
2. Sub-steps• Establish risk chronology and scenarios HÄNDELSEUTVECKLING
• Determine the impact of risk SCENARIER - KONSEKVENSER
• Evaluate occurrences SANNOLIKHET FÖR HÄNDELSE
• Provide a risk overview POÄNGSATT RISKTABELL
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Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Example of risk overview at the structure scale, Sweden
Dura
tion
Are
a
People
/Obje
ct
Speed
Info
rmatio
n
Know
ledge
Sta
ndard
Pers
ons
Pro
pert
y
Environ.
Fin
ancia
l
Inta
ngib
le
E1 E2 E3 S1 S2 S3 S4 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
R1: Extreme
rain + flooding
0,08 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1
R2: Extreme
rain + collapse
0,02 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1
R3: Spring flood
+ flooding
0,08 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1
R4: Spring flood
+ collapse
0,02 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1
Risk scenario ConsequencesProbability
for risk
scenario
(year-1)
Exposure Sensitivity
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Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Step 4 – RISK EVALUATION
1. Objectives - jämföra och prioritera mellan olika risker
2. Sub-steps• Risk prioritisation
• Compare climate risk to other kinds of risk
• Determine which risks are acceptable
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Example of risk prioritisation at the structure scale, SwedenRisk matrix with probability and weighted consequences indicated for four risk scenarios.
Once in:
10 years
100 years
1000 years
Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic
Probability
Consequence
4
3
2
1
1 2 3 4
R1
R3
R2
R4
Increases with climate change
Decreases with climate change
No change expected
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Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Step 5 – RISK MITIGATION
1. Objectives- beskriva och prioritera mellan olika åtgärdsalternativ
2. Sub-steps• Identify options ÅTGÄRDSALTERNATIV
• Appraise options PRIORITERA MELLAN ÅTGÄRDER
• Negotiation with funding agencies SÄKERSTÄLL ATT FÖRESLAGNA ÅTGÄRDER KAN IMPLEMENTERAS
• Present an action plan UTARBETA ÅTGÄRDSPLAN
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Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Example of mitigation option appraisal on a section/network scale The strategy sheet example below is based on assumptions but gives a good insight into how the adaptation
tipping point in a strategy analysis sheet can be used to choose a strategy, as a combination of several related
measures. The x-axis is the time scale, and the blue arrows show the timeframe for which each measure is effective. The measure’s tipping point is where the blue arrow ends. At present, measures I, V, VI, VII and VIII are applicable. Measures III and IV will only become effective after climate change has already developed. The green arrows show the possibilities of changing from the current measure to another measure. The effects of each measure on the consequence criteria are scored as described above, as are the implementation costs.
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Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Step 6 – IMPLEMENTATIONOF ACTION PLAN
1. Objectives
- detaljerad åtgärdsplan
- etablera samverkan mellan berörda aktörer
2. Sub-steps• Develop an action plan on each level of responsibility
• Implement an adaptation action planÅTGÄRDER GENOMFÖRS
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Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Step 7 – MONITORING,REVIEW & CAPITALISATION
1. Objectives
- en lärprocess, utvärdera arbetet och organisationen. Kan något bli bättre?
2. Sub-steps
• Regular monitoring and review
• Re-plan in case of new data or a delay in implementation
• Capitalisation of return of experience on both climatic events and progress of implementation
RIMAROCC
Transportforum 12 januari 2011
Tack!
Date