Sähkö ja älykäs yhteiskunta, Partanen Jarmo
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Älykkääseen yhteiskuntaan standardeilla 27.10.2016 Sähkö ja älykäs yhteiskunta Professori Jarmo Partanen Lappeenrannan teknillinen yliopisto
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Transcript of Sähkö ja älykäs yhteiskunta, Partanen Jarmo
Älykkääseen yhteiskuntaan standardeilla
27.10.2016
Sähkö ja älykäs yhteiskunta
Professori Jarmo Partanen
Lappeenrannan teknillinen yliopisto
Transformation into
solar economy
Sähkö ja älykäs yhteiskunta
Prof. Jarmo Partanen
+358 40 5066564
What did we agree in Paris 2015?
Role of electrification?
Country pledges
for 2030
Energy revolution – Driving Forces
Recarbonization Mass production based technology Holistic approach to intertwined electricity, heat, cooling, fuel, industrial, .. systems
Jarmo Partanen
Role of standardization?
Use of World primary energy sources
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Other
Animal feed
Nuclear
20%
18
00
18
20
18
40
Hydro
18
60
18
80
19
00
19
20
19
40
19
60
19
80
20
00
40%
60%
80%
% f
rom
tota
lu
se
20
20
20
40
20
60
Key messages:
• The ‘waves’ of resources
• Different types of resources can be used
• Electrification?
• Magnitude of the challengeSources: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/eh/intro.html
http://nelson.wisc.edu/che/events/place-based-workshops/2010/project/energy-sources/bioenergy.php
Liu Zhenya, 2015. Global Energy Internet
Jarmo Partanen
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
LNG
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
100
€/M
Wh
Jarmo Partanen
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
LNG
Wind Power
Li-ion battery
Power-to-gas
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
100
€/M
Wh
Solar PV
Jarmo Partanen
Growth of PV has
suprised all experts
In 2015;
• Wind power capacity 432 GW, addition 63 GW
• Solar power capacity 256 GW, addition 59 GW
• Nuclear power capacity 386 GW, addition 6 GW
• Coal power capacity 1687 GW, addition 84 GW
29,99 $/MWh !!!!
800 MW
Future energy system features:● Security of Supply a limited resource ● Energy a non limited resource
4
NOTE: Solar and wind resources and CAPEX may largely vary by individual projects, even on same
region, thus impacting LCOE. Hence, figures are indicative and do not aim to present our geographical
preferences for given technologies but rather illustrate progress of wind and solar globally, long-term.
PV LCOE assumptions based on EU PV Technology Platform report and EU PVSEC 2015 paper (lead
author Fortum solar technology manager Dr. Eero Vartiainen)
2016 2030
44 €/MWh 32 €/MWh
44 €/MWh 26 €/MWh
2016 2030
54 €/MWh 39 €/MWh
38 €/MWh 22 €/MWh
2016 2030
66 €/MWh 47 €/MWh
45 €/MWh 26 €/MWh
2016 2030
62 €/MWh 44 €/MWh
43 €/MWh 25 €/MWh
2016 2030
66 €/MWh 47 €/MWh
51 €/MWh 30 €/MWh
2016 2030
63 €/MWh 45 €/MWh
51 €/MWh 30 €/MWh
2016 2030
50 €/MWh 36 €/MWh
92 €/MWh 52 €/MWh
LCOE assumptions:
• 7% real WACC
• CAPEX, OPEX globally uniform; lifetime solar 30y, wind 25y
• Wind and solar: internal assumptions that solar utilisation to
increase by 7,5% and wind by 15% from 2016 to 2030
• Uniform 20% corporate tax assumed
2016 2030
70 €/MWh 50 €/MWh
80 €/MWh 47 €/MWh
2016 2030
47 €/MWh 34 €/MWh
80 €/MWh 47 €/MWh
Low seasonality
PV most competitive
Intermittent power
Clear Seasonality
Wind most competitive
Intermittent power
2016 2030
63 €/MWh 45 €/MWh
51 €/MWh 30 €/MWh
2016 2030
50 €/MWh 36 €/MWh
92 €/MWh 52 €/MWh
29,99 $/MWh !!!!
Today, not in 2030
800 MW
Electricity Market – Challenges
Jarmo Partanen
WEATHER DEPENDENT PRODUCTION WITH
LOW OPERATIONAL COSTS
Low market price
High volatility
Short operation times of
existing power plants,
different running ranking
Serious economic
problems
Power balance
challenges
Lack of inertia,
Sustainability
Price of electricity Operation of power system Security of supply?
Electricity Market – Spot price in Nordic
Market, annual average 2000-2015
Jarmo Partanen
Electricity Market – Spot price in Nordic
Market, monthly average 2000-2016
Jarmo Partanen
Kuiva kylmä talvi ?
Flexibility Market in Finland, Fingrid
Jarmo Partanen
Lappeenranta University of Technology
16
Prices in flexilibity market, frequency control
Theoretical earning with 1 MW controlable power
Annual product Normal reserve Disturbance reserve
FCR-N FCR-D
€/MW,h €/MW,h
2011 9,97 1,48
2012 11,97 2,80
2013 14,36 3,36
2014 15,80 4,03
2015 16,21 4,13
2016 17,42 (152 000 €/MW,a) 4,50 (39 420 €/MW,a)
Hourly product
2015 195 000 €/MW,a 126 000 €/MW,a
Electricity Market – Driving Forces
Jarmo Partanen
• Unlimited sustainable, cost efficient
energy source -> global welfare
• Unstable energy market and grids,
power balance
• ”Abnormal” low market prices
• How to keep lights on?
Storage is a new component in
electricity power system. Main goal is
to reduce the total capacity
(investments, costs) of energy system
(resource efficiency)
Mass production based technology
Weather dependent electricity
production
Low operation costs
Weather dependent electricity
distribution
Energy storages
Price scenarios for batteries, learning curve; -20 % per doupling of global capacity
1 000 000 MWh = 500 milj. 20 kWh batteries a’ 4000 €
Electricity Market – Driving Forces
Jarmo Partanen
• Unlimited sustainable, cost efficient
energy source
• Unstable energy market and grids,
power balance
• Abnormal low market prices
• How to keep lights on?
Storage is a new component in electricity
power system. Main goal is to reduce the
total capacity (investments, costs) of
energy system (resource efficiency). Peak
cut & power balance in short and long term.
’Unlimited’, low cost potential to control
demand (power) locally ”on line”
Efficient use of capacity of energy system
Power balance management
Improvement of cyber security together
with local production and storages
Mass production based technology
Weather dependent electricity
production
Low operation costs
Weather dependent electricity
distribution
Energy storages
Digitalization
20
In Finland every customer
has an AMR-meter and
communication chanel
Information
systems
Loads; controllable, non-controllable
Energy storage Generation
Solar, wind, fuel
cell, biogas
Grid
Market players; TSO, DSO,
supplier, aggregator
Action signals based on optimization
against different targets of system players
Smart Grid & Customer Gateway; Flexible resources
Active monitoring,
optimisation and
control of energy use
and power flows
Electricity Market – Challenges
Jarmo Partanen
Market model challenge – ”Energy only” market design
Operating costs of renewable based production are extremely low (< 10 €/MWh)
What is the price of energy, when price of ’fuel’ is zero?
Hydro, wind, solar and nuclear based production will be always first in the
market
Competitiveness of power plants with ’typical’ operating costs ?
Competitiveness of production is based on investment costs/W + running hours
+ capability for flexible operation
Grid tariffs will be based on kWs ordered/measured instead of kWhs
-> From energy efficiency to capacity efficiency and flexibility capability
Jarmo Partanen
HOW TO SOLVE THE PROBLEMS?
STORAGES DEMAND
RESPONSE
FLEXIBLE
PRODUCTION
INTELLIGENT
GRIDS
CH4
AKTIIVINEN ASIAKAS
Price? Business model? Investments? Profitability?
Market mechanism with incentives to invest on cost
efficient, flexible, secure, reliable and sustainable
energy system
LVDC Distribution System Field Test Site 1000+ days in real life, LUT & Järvi-Suomen Energia (DSO)
Jarmo Partanen
Control of power
taken/supplied
from/to mv-
network, µgrid
operation
New solutions,
huge need of
standardization
What did we agree in Paris 2015?
Country pledges
for 2030
What did we agree in Paris 2015?
Sähkö ja lämpö 24,6 %
Liikenne 13,5 %
Teollisuus 10,4 %
Muu poltto 9,0 %
Maankäyttömuutokset 18,2 %
Maanviljely 13,5 %
/ THE OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SOURCES
NUCLEAR
CCS
RENEWABLES
SOLAR, WIND, BIO, NUCLEAR
NEOCARBONISATION
BRIDGING
STORAGE
Current
energy
business
New business
opportunities
How to change emissions
to
useful raw material?
?
Power-to-x
• Excess electricity to chemicals, fuels and
materials by using CO2
• Replacing crude oil, gas and gas
condensates
• Power to fuels - ”sähköpolttoaineet”
ElectrolysisCO2 reduction
process
Excess
electricity
H2O
O2
CO2
H2
H2O
CxHyOz
Q Q
From electricity to gas; seasonal storage & clean fuel
System level view
Power-to-x
BLENDINGMETHANOL CONVERTER Direct fuel use
MTBE CONVERSION Fuel additives
RWGS
CO2 + H2
FT SYNTHESIS REFINING
METHANOL TO OLEFINS Plastics
METHANOL TO GASOLINE Gasoline
Drop-in
METHANATION Methane
How to achieve industrial competitiveness? Mass production based technology + regulation + standards
Power-to-X at LUT & VTT, 2017
LUT PV PLANT (EXISTING)
VTT: SYNTHESIS OF CH4
(SOLAR SNG) AND MeOH
VTT: CO2 CAPTURE FROM AIR
BUFFER STORAGES
LUT: H2 PRODUCTION THROUGH ELECTROLYSIS
- SOLAR SNG AND H2 REFILL - ELECTRICITY CHARGING FOR EV’S - MeOH FOR PLASTICS SYNTHESIS
Jarmo Partanen
Electricity has an enormous history
but the future is …
unbelievable
Cost efficient, clean and unlimited energy source
Heat, cooling, working power
Electricity based fuels, food
