Riigikogu Elections 2019 - Valimised Eestis · Riigikogu Elections 2019 Estonia also votes with...
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Riigikogu Elections 2019Estonia also votes with paper ballots
Priit Vinkel, PhDHead of State Electoral Office
March 2nd 2019
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Voting schedule in Estonia
Abroad voting: two days in ~40 locations with ballot + postal voting
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Electoral Districts in 2019
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2019 Riigikogu Elections in Numbers
Candidates 1099
Party lists 10 (8 full lists with 125 candidates)
Independent candidates 15
Voters ~880 000 in Estonia and ~77 000 abroad
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2019 Riigikogu Elections Management in Numbers
Polling stations 451
Local polling station staff 4000 +
Municipalities/Local election managers 79
Logistical managers 14 in counties + 16 aroundTallinn
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Voting Turnout Abroad
Total number 1726By mail 253In embassies/consulates1473
Top 5 Finland 778London 135Brussels 130Stockholm 118Toronto 102
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247 232 voters
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Internet Voting StatisticsGenderM 45,5 %F 54,5%
E-IDID-card 69,2%Digi-ID 1,6%Mobile-ID 29,2%
Operational SystemLinux 0,7%Mac 9,9%Windows 89,4%
Top 5 countries (besides EST)FIN 4251SWE 1426GBR 974GER 822ESP 696
Total number of countries(6,3% of I-votes)145 (previous record 116)
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General Turnout
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Share of advance votes (I+P) – close to 60%?
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Voting Into Envelopes – 40 062
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Voting at home (by paper on Election Day)
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Voters permanently abroad (I+P) – 4347+2104
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Main current topics
Two-for-one elections in 2019
The importance of guaranteeing electionintegrity (both organizational and publicawareness)
Ongoing importance of cyber security of ICT in elections
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Future of Estonian Elections
Introduction of electronic voters’ lists in 2021
Revamping the electoral infosystem by 2021
Discussion on I-voting channels (smart devices)
Internet Voting as a general governmentalservice
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Questions?
Thank you!
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Cyber Resilience of Democratic Systems
Liisa Past
McCain Institute, Next Generation Leader
Estonian Parliamentary Elections
March 2019
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• NEVER ready
• NOT possible
• NEVER in isolation
• NOT a technical problem
BUT we need to act now
CYBER SECURITY OF ELECTIONS
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• Free, fair, open elections based on secret ballot
“Elections are general, uniform and direct. Voting is secret.”
Constitution of the Republic of Estonia, § 60
CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUE
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ECOSYSTEM APPROACH
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Voting
Election technology
Auxiliary systems, facilitators and vendors
Integrated information operations
COMPREHENSIVE RISK MANAGEMENT
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1
Compendium on Cyber Security of Election
Technology
CG Publication 03/2018
NIS Cooperation Group
July 2018
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Phase(s) Assets Examples of Threats
Setup Party/candidate
registration
tampering with registrations;
DoS or overload of party/campaign registration, causing them to
miss the deadline;
fabricated signatures from sponsor.
Setup Electoral rolls identity fraud during voter registration;
Deleting or tampering with voter data ;
DoS or overload of voter registration system, suppressing voters.
Campaign Campaign IT hacking candidate laptops or email accounts;
hacking campaign websites (defacement, DoS);
misconfiguration of a website;
leak of confidential information.
All phases Government IT hacking/misconfiguration of government servers, communication
networks, or endpoints;
hacking government websites, spreading misinformation on the
election process, registered parties/candidates, or results;
DoS or overload of government websites.
Voting Election
technology
tampering or DoS of voting and/or vote confidentiality during or
after the elections;
software bug altering election results;
tampering with logs/journals;
breach of voter privacy during the casting of votes;
tampering, DoS, or overload of the systems used for counting or
aggregating results;
tampering or DoS of communication links used to transfer (interim)
results;
tampering with supply chain involved in the movement or transfer
of data. .
Campaign,
public
Media/press hacking of internal systems used by media or press;
tampering, DoS, or overload of media communication links;
defacement, DoS, or overload of websites or other systems used for
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INEVITABLY: ADVERSARY
• Seeks to undermine democracy
• Reactive and opportunistic
• Well resourced
• Patient
• All and any tools and targets
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• Risk management
• International cooperation• Operational information exchange and exercises
• Cross-agency cooperation
• Last mile in the EU context
WAY FORWARD
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NEW METHODOLOGY CALCULATING COST-EFFICIENCY OF VOTING CHANNELS:
IS INTERNET VOTING CHEAPER IN ESTONIAN MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS?
ROBERT KRIMMER, DAVID DUENAS-CID & IULIIA KRIVONOSOVA
RAGNAR NURKSE DEPARTMENT OF INNOVATION AND GOVERNANCE, DIGIGOVLAB
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asdf
www.digigovlab.ee
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DIGIGOVLAB
• Interdisciplinary Competency Center for Digital GovernmentResearch
• Internationally competitive, domestically relevant, leading center for user and practice driven research on digital government
• Develop and coordinate a collaborative and cooperative ecosystem for digital government research among Estonian universities
• Open for collaboration internationally
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Worldmap of E-Voting
http://www.e-voting.cc/
en/it-elections/world-map/
4
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WHY THIS RESEARCH?
Reason 1: Alternative Voting Systems to confront turnout decline
General tendency of declining turnouts around the globe
Solijonov, A. (2016). Voter Turnout Trends around the World. International IDEA. https://doi.org/10.1189/jlb.1212633\rjlb.1212633
Yes, also in Estonia
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WHY THIS RESEARCH?
Reason 1: Alternative Voting Systems to confront turnout decline
General tendency of declining turnouts around the globe
Test and implementation of improvements to traditional Voting Systems, searching for the voters’ convenience
Adapting administrative rules and procedures to allow citizens to cast their votes in different moments during the voting period
Use of different voting channels to increase the convenience of voting
Complexity
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WHY THIS RESEARCH?
Reason 2: Unsolved question in Estonia + Academia
Questions raised by Wolfgang Drechsler:
Drechsler, W. (2004). The Estonian e-Voting Laws Discourse: Paradigmatic Benchmarking for Central and Eastern Europe. NISPAcee Occasional Papers, V (2): 11-17
1) Are the effects of e-voting really beneficial for Democracy?
2) Will e-voting increase voter turnout?
3) How high are the costs really?
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WHY THIS RESEARCH?
Reason 2: Unsolved question in Estonia + Academia
How high are the costs really?
Amongst those who tried: No proper method of calculation of costs provided successful results.
Budget information
Number of voters
Questionnaires about costs and processes
1) Lack of capacity to calculate hidden costs (administrative costs) using budgets
2) Lack of (need/will) to respond to questionnaires / budget information requirements
3) Lack of capacity to allocate costs of using public infrastructures
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METHODOLOGY PROPOSED
We propose a combined use of:
Business Process Reengineering (BPR),
Activity-Based Costing (ABC),
Business strategy directed towards rethinking the way an organization functions by analyzing its internal workflows and business process
in particular, the use of Time-Driven ABC (TD-ABC)
method that identifies and assigns costs to activities and then assigns those costs to products (votes in our case).
ABC model in which Time is considered to be the main cost driver.
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5 STEPS
1.Narrowing the Electoral Cycle
2.Process Mapping, Business Process Modelling and Data Collection
3.Lists of Activities and Identifying Resource Pools
4.Attributing Costs
5.Transferring Costs
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5 STEPS
Narrowing the Electoral CycleProcess Mapping, Business Process Modelling and Data CollectionLists of Activities and Identifying Resource PoolsAttributing CostsTransferring Costs
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5 STEPS
Narrowing the Electoral CycleProcess Mapping, Business Process Modelling and Data CollectionLists of Activities and Identifying Resource PoolsAttributing CostsTransferring Costs
Detect and understand the potential sources of expense and the different activities that are involved in every process.
Conduct Interviews: EMBs, Polling Station Staff
On-site Observations
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5 STEPS
Narrowing the Electoral CycleProcess Mapping, Business Process Modelling and Data CollectionLists of Activities and Identifying Resource PoolsAttributing CostsTransferring Costs
Create separate lists of activities for each voting channel
List resource pools: labor, depreciation, transportation, rentals, printing, stationery
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5 STEPS
Narrowing the Electoral CycleProcess Mapping, Business Process Modelling and Data CollectionLists of Activities and Identifying Resource PoolsAttributing CostsTransferring Costs
Allocate costs from precise data or budgets
In cases where direct attribution is not possible, “time” is the cost driver: multiplying the time of a certain activity by the cost per minute
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5 STEPS
Narrowing the Electoral CycleProcess Mapping, Business Process Modelling and Data CollectionLists of Activities and Identifying Resource PoolsAttributing CostsTransferring Costs
Calculation of Time required for “Producing” a Ballot (add time spent on every activity and divide it by number of ballots casted)
Calculation of Cost per Activity per Ballot (time spend on every activity multiplied by the cost per minute)
Calculation of Final Range of Costs (add every cost of every activity involved in a ballot)
Range: 80% level of confidence for Price Estimates and time estimates
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FINDINGS
Calculation of cost-efficiency
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FINDINGS
Methodological considerations
TDABC allows to build a process of data collection ending in the comparison of cost-effectiveness of different voting channels
TDABC allows to unveil the most resource demanding activities that trigger cost expenditures.
The use of BPMNs allows the analysis of electoral processes and to consider its further redesign.
Direct observation helps to overcome some methodological challenges that previous researches faced: limited access to data, lack of coherent expenditure tracking
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I-voting reliability from voters’ perspective
Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies
March 2, 2019
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Trust level over time
65.8
77,4
58,653,7
67,663,6
69,473,4
68,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Sh
are
who
trus
ts i-
votin
g (%
)
2005Local
2007Parl
2009EP
2009Local
2011Parl
2013Local
2014EP
2015Parl
2017Local
Election
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No apparent association with usage on aggregate
0
10
20
30
40
50
I-vot
ers
(%)
50 60 70 80 90 100Trust I-voting (%)
Trust and I-voting (2005-2017)
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Strong association at the individual level
I Explains i-voting probability very well Pr(y = 1|x) = F (xβ)
0102030405060708090
100
Aver
age
mar
gina
l effe
ct %
2005Local
2007Parl
2009EP
2009Local
2011Parl
2013Local
2014EP
2015Parl
2017Local
Election
point estimate 95% conf. interval
Trust and I-voting
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Trust structure
I What trust distributions usually look like
Trust i-voting
y
Expected trust distribution
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Trust structure
I How trust should drive i-voting:
nonvote
papervote
i-vote
Trust i-voting
y
Expected trust distribution
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Trust structure
I What trust distribution actually looks like
010
2030
4050
Perc
ent
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90don't trust
at all
10trustfully
Trust i-voting
2017
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Trust structure
I Changes over the years
010
2030
4050
010
2030
4050
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2013 local 2014 EP
2015 national 2017 local
Perc
ent
Trust i-voting
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Trust structure
I Raises the question of trust as a precondition or result ofexperience
010
2030
4050
6070
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
non vote paper vote i-vote
Perc
ent
Trust i-voting
2017
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Difference in difference from a panel in 2014I Run a dif-dif estimation: Yit = α+ βTitt + γTit + πt + εit
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Difference in difference from a panel in 2014I Run a dif-dif estimation: Yit = α+ βTitt + γTit + πt + εit
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Trust structure
I Trust is a precondition, user experience adds very little
I People with high pre-existing trust self-select into i-voting
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past andPresent
Martin Mölder
University of TartuJohan Skytte Institute of Political Studies
2. March 2019
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Overview
I Party system institutionalisation.I Stability of voters preferences.I Number of parties.I Party interaction in government.I Turnover of MPs.I Evolution of party manifestos.
I The political landscape.I Party manifestos in 2015.I Voters’ perceptions and locations.I Candidate space.I Manifestos at the 2019 election.
Martin Mölder 1 / 1
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Electoral Volatility
●
●
●
●
●
●20
30
40
50
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Martin Mölder 2 / 1
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Number of Parties
●
●
●
●
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●
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●
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●
●
●
●●
●
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●
●
●
4
6
8
1992 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Measure:●
●
●
●
Effective nr of electoral parties
Effective nr of parliamentary parties
Inverse of largest seat share
Number of parliamentary parties
Martin Mölder 3 / 1
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Party System Closure
●
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●
●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
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●
●
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●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
70
80
90
100
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Type of closure: ● ● ● ●Overall closure Alternation Formula Access
Martin Mölder 4 / 1
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Turnover of MPs
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
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●
●
●
40
50
60
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Measure:●
●
●Reelected members
Returning members
New members
Martin Mölder 5 / 1
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Changes in Party Manifestos
●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
40
50
60
70
80
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Party:●
●
●
●
●Centre
Fatherland
People's Union
Reform
SDP
Martin Mölder 6 / 1
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Manifesto Differences Between Parties
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
30
40
50
60
1992 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Martin Mölder 7 / 1
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Party Manifestos at the 2015 Election
●
●
●
●
●
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●
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●
●
●
●
Military +
International cooperation −
Market regulation +
General economic goals +
Culture +
Equality +
Welfare state +
Education +
National way of life +
Traditional morality +
Workers +
Agriculture +
●●
●
●
●
●
SDP
Centre
Reform
Free PartyFatherland
EKRE
−2
−1
0
1
2
−1 0 1
Martin Mölder 8 / 1
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Voters Perceptions of Parties in 2018
●
●
●
●
●
EU −
Cultural diversity −
Free market +
Refugees
Political change +
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
EKRE
Fatheralnd
Centre
Reform
Greens
SDP
Free Party
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
EKRE
Fatherland
Centre
Reform
Greens
SDP
Free Party
−1
0
1
2
−1 0 1
Martin Mölder 9 / 1
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Ideological Landscape of Voters 2016-2018
Centre
EKRE
Reform
Fatherland
SDP
Free Party
Estonia 200
2
4
6
8
2 4 6 8
left − right (0 to 10)
liber
al −
con
serv
ativ
e (0
to 1
0)
Martin Mölder 10 / 1
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Political Differences Between Candidates at the 2019 Election
Liberal−conservative
Left−right
Party:
Centre
Diversity of Life
EKRE
Estonia 200
Fatherland
Free Party
Greens
Reform
SDP
Martin Mölder 11 / 1
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Landscape of Political Parties in Estonia – Past and Present
Party Manifestos at the 2019 Election
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E200
EKRE
SDP
Fatherland
Reform
Free
Centre
Greens
Life Diversity
Martin Mölder 12 / 1