Ren Xiaona — The impact of climate change on china’s grain trade

静思笃行持中秉正秋记与你分享

Presented by：Ren [email protected]

Ren Xiaona & Sun DongSheng


☞ Outline of the Presentation

Introduction1

The basic condition of China’s grain trade

2

The Gravity Model of Grain Trade3

4

Conclusion5

Results and Analysis


Introduction

Definition

Climate change-------The Article 1 of "Framework Convention on Climate Change”

Carbon dioxide emissions "Carbon hood"

The composition of Earth's atmosphere altered because of directly or indirectly human activity, other than natural climate variability observed in similar period.


Introduction

Definition

The grain------ definition by FAO

Mainly refers to wheat, coarse food grain and rice three categories.

Grain, wheat, rice and maize production account for more thantwo-thirds of total grain output.

Grain mentioned in this article mainly refers to wheat, rice and maize.


Introduction

Background

Climate change and its impacts and research lead to more

and more countries and people's attention.

Less study on social economy and trade

grain trade has played an important role at different times.

So, it is necessary and meaningful to study the climate change impact on China’s grain trade.



1961-2008 China's grain imports and exports

Mainly import-

oriented.

Grain trade scale



Grain trade structure

import

China’s grain imports were wheat and maize, rice self-sufficiency.

Before 2010, China is a net exporter of maize. In 2010, China became a net importer of maize at the first time, and maize deficit reached 1.445 million tons.

43.05%46.58%

53.89%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

1 2 32006 2007 2008

Grain importsaccount for the total import volume from the United States, Argentina and Brazil.



Grain trade structure

export

China's exports are mainly wheat and maize, a small amount of rice. mainly export to South Korea, Indonesia and Japan.

Maize was China's main grain export variety before 2010. From 2003 to 2009, maize total export accounts for 99.3% of maize trade volume.

But in 2010, maize imports reached 1,572,100 tons, exports only 127,200 tons, and Imports up to 92.5%.


The Gravity Model of Grain Trade

访谈结果与析National Trade Volume

Model :

National Economical Scale

The distance of Two

Countries’ Capital

00 /)( μβ βijjiij DGDPGDPT =

Tij GDP Dij

Correlation parameter

Error

0β 0μ

model construction


访谈结果与析

Model of Import ：

ijijij

jijjii

POLICYDISGYCOCO

TEMGYPOPGDPGDPT

μααααα

αααααα

+++++

++++++=

109876

543210

lnln2ln2ln

lnlnlnlnlnln


Modified Gravity Model

Equation(2)

Model of Export ：

eejjej

jejjee

POLICYDISGYCOCO

TEMGYPOPGDPGDPT

δβββββ

ββββββ

+++++

++++++=

109876

543210

lnln2ln2ln

lnlnlnlnlnln

Equation(3)


访谈结果与析


Variables Meaning


访谈结果与析


Data sources

China’s grain import countries : United States, Argentina, Canada, Australia, and France.

China's grain export countries: Japan, Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia.

These countries grain trade with China accounted for more than 85%. So it had more fully convincing.

Data from 1986 to 2008

grain output and grain trade volumes FAO

carbon dioxide emission WB-D

GDP and population Madisonwebsite


访谈结果与析

Data processingSTATA11software by panel

data analysis.

R2 = 0.6084 model fitness better

,

,

iGYln

jPOPln

POLICY jGYln

removed furth

er analysis

Result and Analysis4


The variables pass the t-test.

Model fitness better

China grain import analysis



访谈结果与析

R2 = 0.3064 Model fitness better

,

furth

er analysis

POLICY

Removed eCO2ln

ejDISln

China grain export analysis



The variables pass the t-test.

Model fitness better

China grain export analysis



conclusion5

1

2


THANKS!

Ren Xiaona — The impact of climate change on china’s grain trade

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