Relationship between the Tibetan Plateau Heating and East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
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Relationship between the Tibetan Plateau Heating and
East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
許晃雄 (Huang-Hsiung Hsu) 劉新 (Xin Liu)台灣大學大氣科學系 (NTU)
洪志誠 (Chi-Cherng Hong)台北市立師範學院自然科學教育系
(Taipei Municipal Teachers College)
(1st part: GRL, in press)
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Major rainfall pattern in EASM
( 1993 , 1994 ,2003 )
Affecting Taiwan( 1993 , 1994 ,
2003 )
Mechanism :• SST : PJ pattern correlation ~ 0.3• Tibetan Plateau forcing?• ?
澇(旱)
旱(澇)
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Heating index&1st PC
Correlation HTP(JJA)Vs. JJA Heaitng
Correlation HTP(MAM)Vs. JJA Heaitng
Heating index: vertically-integrated diabatic heating (above 3 Km)
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Rainfall Composites (strong - weak)
1st EOF (JJA precipitation)
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Vorticity Composites200 hPa
500 hPa
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Patterns reproduced by SVD analysis
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Numerical experiments: Barotropic model
Basic flow: 200hPa zonal-mean zonal flow in JJA
Forcing: divergence over the Tibetan Plateau
4
/
( ) ( )
t
v f f v k r F
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Basic flow: Climatological mean flow
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Simulation1. Same forcing2. Basic flow (strong HTP) – Basic flow (weak HTP)
Observation
Strong - Weak
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Simulation
Observation
1993 (S) – 1994 (W)
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zonal-mean U
zonal-mean U
PV gradient
PV gradient
strongweak
19931994
wave guide
wave guide
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[U] JJA
1993 1994
1993 - 1994HTP(S)-HTP(W)
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JJA []
1993 - 1994
1993 1994
HTP(S)-HTP(W)
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Corr(Precip.EOF1,SST)JJA
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Corr.(TPH, Precip)
Part. Corr.(TPH, Precip|WNPSST)
Corr.(WNPSST, Precip)
Part. Corr.(WNPSST, Precip|TPH)
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Indian Ocean Dipole SST(50~70E, 10S~10N) – SST(90~110E, 0~10S)
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Corr.(TPH, Precip)
Part. Corr.(TPH, Precip|Nino3.4)
Corr.(Nino3.4, Precip)
Part. Corr.(TPH, Precip|TPH)
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JJA rainfall in Taiwan
-61.60-75.04
280.57
102.23
-89.09
-344.39
-136.20-104.46
-180.10-160.94
21.73
338.13
-179.53
-15.69
-139.49
-59.86
-170.13
1.16
62.29
-4.21
-24.30
111.57
-158.64
-2.53
-213.94
-253.81
-25.70
353.07
52.81
-148.84
156.00
85.71
-113.60
-319.23
349.67
11.19
282.09
-43.83-29.40
41.5342.10
-26.77
260.20
153.70
80.79
27.89
413.56
-156.74
133.37104.96
174.13
-119.51
51.70
-2.21
378.43
-196.51
50.59
-205.21
139.09
282.54
-196.91
-112.73
-277.91
-114.89
-5.61
54.29
-35.21
39.21
-54.59
-102.67
-232.24
204.14184.14
163.86
278.07
-81.51
264.61
-69.61
85.54
-317.49
-51.86-60.00
-140.89
195.84
148.39
3.81
-208.80
-29.56
-283.19
225.59
-101.47-77.23
-150.89
194.80
-86.50
-234.87
246.26
53.74
149.56
39.39
-76.23
-159.91
-49.76
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
年份
月雨量距平值
(mm)
7 ( )1901-2003 6-8個測站 台北、花蓮、澎湖、台南、台中、恆春、台東 年 月降雨時序
558.857 mm平均值:170.746 mm標準差:
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HTP(S) – HTP(W)
1993-1994
[U]
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HTP(S) - HTP(W)
[]
1993-1994