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CREATOR:"Watson, Harlan L (OES)" <WatscflHL~state.gov> ("Watson, Harlan L COES)" <Wa

CREATION DATE/TIME: 5-MAR-2003 11:24:4(.00

SUBJECT:: TCS Enviro-Sci - Defense of the Draft.htm

TO:"Gordon, Susan, C COES)" <GordonSC@ tate.gov> C "Gordon, Susan, C (OES)"I <GordonSREAD :UNKNOWN

TO:"Turekian, Vaughan C (OES)" <TurekiznVC~state.gov> C "Turekian, Vaughan C COBS)"IREAD :UNKNOWN

TO:"Patel-weynand, Toral, 0 COES)"1 <Patel-weynandTOgstate.gov> ( "Patel-weynand, TorREAD:UNKNOWN

TO:"Reifsnyder, Dan A COES)" <Reifsnyd rDA~state.gov> C "Reifsnyder, Dan A COES)" <RREAD;:UNKNOWN

CC:David Halpern C CN=David Halpern/OU=OSTP/O=EOP~EOP [ OSTP IREAD :UNKNOWN

CC:Phil Cooney ( CN=Phil Cooney/OU=CEQ/O=EOP@EOP E CEQREAD :UNKNOWN

CC:"'Richard.Moss~pnl.gov'" <Richard.Mcssapnl.gov> C "'Richard.Moss~pnl.gov'"1 <RichaREAD :UNKNOWN

CC:Kenneth L. Peel C CN=Kenneth L. Peel/OU=CEQ/O=EOP@EOP F CEQ IREAD :UNKNOWN

CC:"'-Scott.Rayder~noaa.gov'"' <Scott.Rayder(?noaa.gov> ( "Scott.Rayder~noaa.gov'" <ScREAD :UNKNOWN

CC:" 'James. R.Mahoney~noaa. gov'"I <James.R.Mahoney~noaa .gov> ( "'James. R. Mahoney~noaa.READ :UNKNOWN

TEXT:«<TCS Enviro-Sci - Defense of the Draft.htm»>

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<b><font face="Arial, Helvctica, sans-serif" size="5`>Defeflse of th

e Draft</font></b><table width="l10O%" border 'loll cellspacing="O" cellpadding="O">

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<td width=l% bgcolor=#103366 align=right height="Il"></td>

<tr><td width=99%><foflt fa e=verdana,arial size=l>By Sallie Baliuna

s and Willie Soon</fornt></td><td width=15% bgcolor 00O3366 align=right><forlt face=verdana,ar

jal size=l color=white> 03/04/2003 <If nt></td></tr>

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The Bush administration has proposed a common-sense review of th

e nation's climate research, one that could lead to~a course correction for dir

ecting an area of scientific inquiry t at has benefited from an infusion of ove

r $20 billion in funding in the last t n years. Considerable progress has alrea

dy been made toward understanding the complex system of climate change, but mor

e remains to be done to eliminate critical gaps in our knowledge.

<br><br>Theadministration issued a draft outline analyzing and proposing changes to the C

limate Change Science Program and welc med all stakeholders - from scientists t

o the public - to discuss the future o- climate research. The process is intend

ed to determine what areas of climate -esearch are in need of greater funding a

n'd support.<br><br>The National Research Council orga ized a panel to review

the draft. The panel was critical of t e draft, but rather than clarify the exi

sting state of climate science and res arch, the panel's members muddied the wa

ters.

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<br><br><b>On the One Hand, on the Other</b~<br><br>On the one hand,

the panel members claimed that a human-made component of global warming has bee

in firmly established by the scientific community, thus obviating the administra

tion's call for research to reduce unce tainties over anthropogenic warming and

bolstering claims that a significant r duction in greenhouse gas emissions is

necessary. But they also said, paradoxi ally, that significantly <I>more</I> re

search funding would be necessary to re uce the scientific uncertainties relate

d to human-made global warming.<br><br>One of the panelists criticized the ad

ministration's research priorities, tel-ing the <I> New York Times</I> that res

earch "that would have been cutting edg~ in 1980 is listed as a priority for th

e future."<br><br>Despite this panelist's assertion, :here are longstanding

improvements needed in basic climate sc ence. For instance, a deteriorating and

insufficient network for ascertaining surface temperature measurements must be

strengthened; and understanding of the basic physics of convection that govern

s the transfer of large amounts of enery must be improved. Even after two deca

des of research in these areas, they re amn at the leading edge of problems to

be solved to reduce uncertainty in fore asts of the human-made climate impact.

<br><br>Moreover, the panel asserted that m re is known about a human-made war

ming trend than the Bush administration will admit. For example, one panel memb

er, Michael Prather, announced that aboit half of observed warming trend of the

last few decades is anthropogenic while the remainder is natural.

<br><br>This assertion leaves the impression that a human-caus 'd global warming effect is

understood thoroughly enough to differentiate the human warming trend from nat

ural causes, and that research on the mtter could be concluded and funding red

uced.<br><br>Scientific claims about anthropogenic warming can be traced to

the conclusions listed in the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Impacts

of Climate Variability and Change and the United Nations' Intergovernmental Pa

nel on Climate Change 2001's Third Assessment Report. But these conclusions are

uncertain because the main tools on w ich they are 'based are computer simulati

ons that have not reliably reproduced either past or current attributes of the

climate system. However, that is not surprising, since the natural influences

of climate are still difficult to model. Reducing uncertainty about natural var

iability remains a critical concern in distinguishing human and natural warming

trends.<br><br>The panel's claims are thus confusing: While claiming we know

enough to act on global warming by recucing greenhouse gas emissions, the pane

1 also criticized the lack of a commit ent to substantial new funding for impro

ving climate research.<br><br><b>We Know What We Don't Know </b><br><br>The panel's complaints try to have thing! both ways: Either the science is comple

te (or complete enough) to move ahead with substantial cuts in carbon dioxide e

missions, or the climate forecasts are uncertain and require substantial advanc

es in order to give reliable forecasts one or two centuries into the future. In

the first case, the committee is calling for reductions in fundamental researc

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h in climate change, and a restructuring of energy policy in the U.S., with cos

ts that will be difficult to bear in th~ next decade. In the second case, the a

rgument for much more funding undercuts the previous assertion that the science

is settled.<br><br>Tmplementing large and immediate cu s in greenhouse gas e

missions will be costly to human health welfare and the environment. Waiting f

or two or three decades while the techn logy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

improves and becomes more affordable d es not, according to computer simulatio

ns shown in the UN assessment, add sign ficant warming at the end of 100 years.

it would make greenhouse gas cuts easi r and more affordable. most important,

prioritized research in that interval may allow scientific progress in understa

nding climate physics and defining the Rxtent of human-made climate change - wh

ich was the original point of the draft document.</f ont>

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<td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="winlow.open( 'display_comment.jsp?msgid=f3ba

O4cd8e' ,'maint' , scrollbars=yes,width=3 O,height=500') ;">

Having it both ways</a> <font cobo ="#666666">by Scot Wilson</font></td>

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<tr><td width=lQ valign=top> </td><td width=10 valign=top><img sr:=images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><ctd><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="win ow.open( display_comment.jsp?msgid~f3ba

59d562'. maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=310,height=500');U'>Re: Having it both ways</a> <forit ~olor="*#66666,6'>by Dario</font></td>

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t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size'lI"><a class~nou

erline href='javascript:;" onClick="window.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid~f3ba

a5666c',,'maint' , scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500,') ;">

Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Rick Marliave</font><

/td>

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t =1O>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;' onClick="wirdow.open( 'display~commerit.jsp?msgid~f3bb

bfO2af', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500');">

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Re: Re: Having a Market both ways</a>&n sp;<font color="#666666II>by Dano</font>

</table>

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<tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img sr =images/feedback arrow--right.gif width=9 hei

t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, salns-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:; FronClick="win ow.open( 'display_cmntjpsgdfb

be7c29' ,'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width-3 0,height=500') ;">

Re: Re: Re: Having a Market both ways</ > <font~color="#666666">by Rick Ma

rliave</font></td>

<I/table>

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<tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td>

<td width=10 valign=top><img sr ,=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif widthz9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="win ow.open('display-comment.jsp?msgid~f3bc3alad4' ,'maint' ,'scrollbars~yes,width='310,height=500i') ;">

Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaming a Market both wa s<c/a> <font color="#666666">by Dan

o</font></td>

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<table border="10" cellspacing=" "I cellpadding="0" width="100%">

<tr><td width=lO valign=top> </td>

<td width=l0 valign=top><img srz=images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face='Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="window.open( 'display~comment. jsp?msgid=f3bc

c4ccld', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width-340,height=500');">A lesson on Adam Smith</a> <font color="*666666">by Rick Marliave</foflt></

td>

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<tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td>

<td width=10 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="11"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wirdow.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid~f3be

f3a669', 'maint', 'scrollbars~yes,width= 40,height=500');">

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaming a Market both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by

Electro the Capitalist Boy</font></td-

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<table border="10" cellspacing& 0" cellpadding="0" width="100%">

<tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td>

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<td width=l0 valign=top><img sr =images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=1Q></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"'><'caclass~nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="win iow.open('display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3bbc~e~ba', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=3 0,height=500 );">

Re: Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by ejt</font></td>

</tr><I/table>

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<tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img sr =urnages/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td><td><font face='Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"I><a class=nou

erline href='javascript:;" onClick="winlow.open('display_comment.jsp?msgid=f3bbc34e78', 'maint , 'scrollbars=yes,width=310,height=500') ;">

Re: Re: Re: Having it both ways</a>&nbs ;cfont colorl" #666666">by Rick Marliave

<If ont></td>

</table>

<table border="0" cellspacing=" " cellpadding="O" width='100%'>

<tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td><td width=1Q valign=top><img sr =images/feedback arrow right.gif width=9 hei

t =l0>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="window.open('display_comment.jsp?msgid~f3bb8Sc~ld', 'maint', 'scrollbars~yes,width=310,height=500');">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font zolor="#666666"I>by Praxus</font></td>

</ table>

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<tr>

<td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img src=images/feedback_arrow~-night.gif width=9 hel

t =l0>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nOu

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display~comment.jsp?mfsgid~f3bb9cebe0' , maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=

5 0 0 '');">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Mark Wilson</font></tdi>

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<table border="Q" cellspacing="O" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td widthl10 valign=top><img s c=irnages/feedback-arrow~-right.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wirdow.open( 'display-commrent.jsp?msgid~f 3 bc

4b5e7a' ,'maint' ,'scrollbars~yes,width='40,height=500') ;">

Re: Re: Having it both ways</a> <Jont color="*666666">by freepete</font></

td>

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<td width=10 valign=top><img sr,=images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t 10>< /td>cztd><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size='l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="win ow.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid~f3bb

c7b541', 'mairnt', 'scrollbars=yes,width=3 0,height=500');">

Re: Having it both ways</a> <font ,olor="#666666">by cbsimkins<z/font></td>

</ table>

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<td width=l0 valign=top><img sr-=images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="winlow.open( 'display_comment.jsp?msgid~f3bc

466c7a',,'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=310,height=500:') ;">

Re: Having it both ways</a> <font 7olor="#66666'E">by freepete</font></td>

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<tr><td widthl10 valign=top> </td>

<td width=l0 valign=top><img src=images/feedback arrow~_right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class~nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="window.open( 'display~cotnment.jsp?msgid~f3be

b3lfd2' ,'maint' , scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=5 0 0') ;">

Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color='#666666">by tom</font></td>

</table>

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<tr><td width=l0 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback arrow_right.gif widtb'9 hei

t =10>< /td>

<td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class~nou

erline href="javascript.;" onClick='wirdow.open( 'display~cornment.jsp?msgid~f3bb

8ad733 , 'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width ~40,height=500') ;">

How True</a> <foflt color="#666666'>by Praxus</font></td>

</ table>

<table border="0" cellspacing=&O" cellpadding="0" width="100%">

<tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=10 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback_arrow_right.gif width=9 hei

t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid~f3be

9a5f9a', 'maint', 'scrollbars~yes,wi-dth= 40,height=500'1;",>

Re: How True</a> <font color="4#66i666">by Jayakamal</font></td>

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</ table>

<table border="0" cellspacing=" "cellpaddirng='"O width="100%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top><img sr =images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=l10>< /td>

<td><forit face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=I1l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript: ;hi oriClick="win ow.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid~f3bb

9f5ae5', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=310,height=500');">It's all about money</a> <foflt col r="#666666'1>by Mark Wilson</font></td>

</table>

<table border="O" cellspacirng-" " cellpadding="O0" width="100%">

<tr><td width=10 valign=top> •/td><td width=l0 valign=top><img sr =images/feedback_arrow_right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td>cfont face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1l"><a class~nOu

erline href="javascript: ;" onClick="win ow.open( 'display_comment.jsp?msgid~f3bb

bb686c', 'raint', 'scrollbars=yes,width-340,height=500');">Re: It's all about <s>money</s> or something</a> <foflt color="1#666666"1>by

Dano< /font>< /td>

<I/table>

<table border="Q" cellspacing="0"1 cellpadding="0" width="100%`>

<tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td><td width=10 valign=top><img src=images/feedback arrow-night.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l1"><a class=riou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick&'wirdow.open( 'display-comment. jsp?msgid~f3bb

b56416' ,'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=5 0 0 ') ;">

Re: Re: It's all about <s>money</s> or something</a> <foflt color="#666666"

>by Mark Wilson</font></td>

</table>

<table border="0" cellspacing=' 0" cellpaddin ="0"1 width="100%">


<td width=l0 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback-arrow_right.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td>I<td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class~nou

erline href="~javascript.;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid~f3bbca63f9', 'maint', 'scrollbars~yes,width='40,height=500');">Re: Re: It's all about <s>money</s> or something</a> <foflt color="*666666"

>by Dano</foflt></td>

</ table>

<table border="0" cellspacing= 0" cellpadding"`0" width=1l00%">

<tr><td widthU10 valign=top> </td><td width=10 valign=top><img s .c=images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1l"><a class=nou

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erline href="javascript:` ponClick="wini ow.open( 'display cornment.jsp?msgid=f3bb

be5a4O', 'maint,' ,scrollbars~yes,width=3 0,height=500') C'>

Re: It's all about money</a> <font color="#666666">by Steve L.</font></td>

</table>

<table border='0" cellspacing=" " cellpadding="0" width='l00%`>

<tr><td width=lQ valign=top> </td>

<td width=l0 valign=top><irng sr =images/feedback-arrow~-right.gif width=9 hel

t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="'l`><a class=nou

erline href="1javascript:;"1 onClick='win ow.open( 'display_comment.jsp?rnsgid=f3bc

260cl1', 'mairnt', 'scrollbars=yes,width=310,height-500");">Re: Re: It's all about money</a> <Eont color="1#66666"`>by Charlie McC.</fo

nt></td></tr></table>

<table border="10" cellspacing-' " cellpadding="O" width="100%">


<td width=l0 valign=top><img sr =images/feedback-arrow--right.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="l"1><a class=nou

erlirne href="1javascript:;" onClick="window.open( display-comment.jsp?msgid~f3bc

6lb~ab' ,'maint,' ,scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=

5 0 0 ');CI>

Re: Re: It's all about xnoney</a> <font color=`#666666">by freepete</font><

/td></tr><I/table>

<tabe boder"O" cellspacing="O0" cellpaddirg"wit=1%>

<tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td><td width=1Q valign=top><img slc~images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"1><a class=nou

erline href=`javascript.;"1 onClick="wirdow.open( 'displayecornment jsp?msgid=f3bc

524042', 'maint,',scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=50q');">

Re: It's all about money</a> <font color="#666666"1>by freepete</font></td>

<I/table>

<table border="O0" cellspacing-'0" cellpadding="O" width="l00%">

<tr><td width=l0 valign=top><img sic=images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td>

<td><font face="Verdana, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1l"><a class=nou

erline href="1javascript: C' onClick="wi dow.open( 'display-comment. jsp?msgid~f3bc

8d9a4c',,'maint', 'scrollbars~yes,width-,40,height=500' );">

Global</a>&flbsp;<foflt color="1#666 6 6 6"> y Mike Weatherford</foflt></td>

</tr></ table>

<table border="O0" cellspacinig='0 cellpadding="O" width="l00%">

<tr>

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<td width=1O valign=top> </td><td width=1Q valign=top><img sr =images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td><td><fornt face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l'><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" ornClick="win iow.open( 'display_comrnent.jsp?msgid=f3bc

c09947', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=3 O,height=500');">Re: Global</a> <foflt color="1#666666 ">by Steve L</font></td>

</table>

<table border='O" cellspacing=" "01 cellpadding="O" width='100%"1>

<tr><ctd width=lO valign=top><img sr =images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td>

<td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size='l'>ca class=nou

erline href="javascript:;' onClick="win ow.open( 'display_commnent.jsp?msgid=f3be

661cl7', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=31Q,height=500,') ;">

Acting on imperfect information</a>&nbs ;<font colorT"1#666666">by Dave Brown</f

ont>< /td></tr></table>

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<table cellpadding=2 cellspacingl1 bord r=0><tt><td colspan=2>cfont face=verdana,aral size=l>Do, you think <a href=http://w

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<b><font face="Arial, Eelvetica, sans-serif"- size="5">Defense of the Draft</font></b>

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<td width=99%><font fa e~verdana,arial size=1>By Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon</font></td>

<td width=15% bgcolor= 003366 align-~right><font face=verdana,arial size=1 color=whjte> 03/04/2003 <If nt></td>

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<font face="Arial, Helvetic , sans-serif" size="2"I>The Bush administration aas proposed a common-sense review of th

e nation's climate research, one that CDUld lead to a course correction for dir

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ecting an area of scientific inquiry tiat has benefited from an infusion of over $20 billion in funding in the last t n years. Considerable progress has already been made toward understanding the _omplex system of climate change, but more remains to be done to eliminate crit.-cal gaps in our knowledge.<br><br>Theadministration issued a draft outline analyzing and proposing changes to the Climate Change Science Program and welc med all stakeholders - from scientists to the public - to discuss the future of climate research. The process is intended to determine what areas of climate research are in need of greater funding and support.<br><br>The National Research Council orga ized a panel to reviewthe draft. The panel was critical of the draft, but rather than clarify the existing state of climate science and res arch, the panel's members muddied the waters.•br><br><cb>On the One Hand, On the Other</b><br><br>On the one hand,the panel members claimed that a human-made component of global warming has been firmly established by the scientific community, thus obviating the administration's call for research to reduce unc rtainties over anthropogenic warming andbolstering claims that a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is

necessary. But they also said, paradoxically, that significantly <cI>more</T> research funding would be necessary to r duce the scientific uncertainties related to human-made global warming.<br><br>One of the panelists criticized thE administration's research priorities, telling the <I> New York Times</I> that research "that would have been cutting edge in 1980 is listed as a priority for the future."<br><br>Despite this panelist's assertion, there are longstandingimprovements needed in basic climate science. For instance, a deteriorating andinsufficient network for ascertaining surface temperature measurements must bestrengthened; and understanding of the basic physics of convection that governs the transfer of large amounts of energ must be improved. Even after two decades of research in these areas, they remamn at the leading edge of problems tobe solved to reduce uncertainty in forecasts of the human-made climate impact.<br><br>Moreover, the panel asserted that re is known Iabout a human-made warming trend than the Bush administration will admit. For example, one panel membter, Michael Prather, announced that about half of observed warming trend of thelast few decades is anthropogenic while the remainder is natural.

<br><br>This assertion leaves the impression that a human-caused global warming effect isunderstood thoroughly enough to differ ntiate the human warming trend from nat

ural causes, and that research on the matter could be concluded and funding reduced.<br><br>Scientific claims about anthropogen c warming can be traced tothe conclusions listed in the U.S.. Nati nal Assessment of the Potential Impactsof Climate Variability and Change and :he United Nations' Intergovernmental Pa

nel on Climate Change 2001's Third Asse sment Report'. But these conclusions areuncertain because the main tools on wh~ch they are based are computer simulati

ons that have not reliably reproduced e~ther past or current attributes of theclimate system. However, that is not s rprising, since the natural influencesof climate are still difficult to model. Reducing uncertainty about natural var

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iability remains a critical concern in distinguishing human and natural warmingtrends.

<br><br>The panel's claims are thus confus ng: While claiming we knowenough to act on global warming by relucing greenhouse gas emissions, the pane1 also criticized the lack of a commit ent to substantial new funding for improyang climate research.<br><br><b>We Know What We Don't Know </b><br><br>The panel's complaints try to have things both ways: Either the science is complete (or complete enough) to move ahead with substantial cuts in carbon dioxide emissions, or the climate forecasts are uncertain and require substantial advances in order to give reliable forecasts one or two centuries into the future. Inthe first case, the committee is calling for reductions in fundamental research in climate change, and a restructuri g of energy policy in the U.S., with costs that will be difficult to bear in the next decade. In the second case, the argument for much more funding undercut! the previous assertion that the scienceis settled.

<br><br>Tmplementing large and immediate c ts in greenhouse gas emissions will be costly to human healtl, welfare and the environment. Waiting for two or three decades while the tech ology to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsimproves and becomes more affordable coes not, accdrding to computer simulatio

ns shown in the UN assessment, add sig ificant warming at the end of 100 years.It would make greenhouse gas cuts easier and more affordable. Most important,

prioritized research in that interval may allow scientific progress in understanding climate physics and defining the extent of human-made climate change - which was the original point of the draft document.

</font>

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<td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nouerline href="javascript:;" onClick="wirdow.open( 'ditplay-comment. jsp?msgid=f3ba04cd8e' ,'maint','scrollbars=yes,width= .40,height=500');">Having it both ways</a> <cfont colcr="#666666">by Scot Wilson</font></td>

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erline href="j'avascript:;" onClick="wirdow.open( 'display comment.jsp?msgid~f3ba59d562' ,'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500' );">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Dano</font></td>

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<td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nouerline href="javascript:;", onClick="wiidow.open( 'display comment .jsp?msgid=f3baa5666c',,'maint,',scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500');">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Rick Marliave</font></ td>

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t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display-comment .jsp?msgid=f3bbbfO2af', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500');">Re: Re: Having a Market both ways</a>&ibsp;<font color="#666666">by Dano</font>

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t =10>< /td><td><forit face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"I><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi ~dow.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3bbbe7c29', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width='40,height=500');">Re: Re: Re: Having a Market both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Rick Marliave</ font></td>

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<table border="10" cellspacing=' 0" cellpadding="0" width="1Q0%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top>•img s c=imnages/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td>'cfont face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wirdow.open( 'display comment.jsp?msgid=f3bc3alad4 , 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=.40,height=500') ;'>Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaming a Market both w ys</a> <font color="#666666">by Dan0< /font>< /td>

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<table border="10" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="10Q%">•tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback-arrow-night.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wirdow.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid=f3bcc4ccld', 'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=5oo') ;">A lesson on Adam Smith</a> <font color="#666666">by Rick Marliave</font></td>

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<table border=IO" cellspacing="O" cellpadding="O" width=I100%,><tr><td width=lO valign=top> </td><td width=lO valign=top><img s c=images/feedback arrow right.gif width=9 hei

t=lO></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open('display~commnent.jsp?msgidaf3bef3a669', 'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');"Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaming a Market both ways</a> <font color="#666666">byElectro the Capitalist Boy</font></td>

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t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l'><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wiidow.open( 'display-commnent.jsp?msgid=f3bbc~e~ba', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height-506 ');">Re: Re: Having it both ways'c/a> < ant color="#666666">by ejt</font></td>

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t=10><c/td><ctd><font face="Verdana, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display-comment. jsp?msgid=f3bbc34e78', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500');"->Re: Re: Re: Having it both ways</a>&nb p;<font color="#666666">by Rick Marliave•/font></td>

</table>

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t=l0><c/td><ctd><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wiidow.open( display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3bb88c8ld', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500');">Re: Having it both ways<c/a> <font color="#666666">by Praxus</font></td>

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t=l0><c/td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display-comment. jsp?msgid=f3bb9cebe0' ,'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500');"Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Mark Wilson'c/font></t

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<I/table>

<table border="10" cellspacing= FQ* cellpadding="O" width="l00%'><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img s-c=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=l1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wiidow.open( 'di splay comment. jsp?msgid=f3bc4b5e7a' ,'maint,',scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500');>Re: Re: Having it both ways</a> <-ont color='#666666">by freepete</font></td>

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<table border="0' cellspacing= '0" cellpadding="O" width="l00%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img s-c~zimages/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td>I<td><font face="Verdana, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif" size=l1><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wiidow.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid=f3bbc7b541', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500');">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by cbsimkins</font></td>

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<table border="Q"1 cellspacing= Qil cellpadding='0" width="100%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=lO valign=top><imng s c=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td>I<td><font face='Verdana, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif' size='l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript: ;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display-comment. jsp?msgid=f3bc466c7a' ,'maint' , scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500') ;">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by freepete</font></td>

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t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wiidow.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3beb3lfd2', 'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500' );">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by tom</font></td>

<It r></ table>

<table border='O01 cellspacing=roll cellpadding="O" width="1O0%"><tr><td width=10 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10><Itd>I

<td><font face='Verdana, Arial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

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erline href=1javascript:;" onClick="wildow.open( display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3bb8ad733', 'maint' , scrollbars~yes,width= 40,height=500');"How True</a> <font color="#666666 '>by Praxus</font></td>

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<table border="O" cellspacing= QIE cellpadding=IbO width="lOO%"><tr>ctd width=1O valign=top> </td><td width=lO valign=top><img s c=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif' size="l11><a class=nou

erline href="javascript: U' ornClick="wiidow.open( 'display~comrnent. jsp?msgid=f3be9a5f9a' , maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height-500');"Re: How True</a>&nbspycfont color="#663666">by Jayakamal</font></td>

</table>

<table border="O"1 cellspacing='O" cellpadding="O" width="lOQ%"><tr><td width=lO valign=top><img s-c=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td>I

<td><cfont face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l1><a class=nouherline href="javascript.;" onClick="wiidow.open( 'display~comment .jsp?msgid=f3bb9f~aeS', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500') ;">It's all about money</a> <font co or="#666666">by Mark Wilson</font></td>

<I/table>

<table border="O" cellspacing= '0" cellpadding="0" width=`l00%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><irng s .c=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t= l0>< /td><td><font face='Verdana, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href=`javascript:;" onClick="1wi dow.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3bbbbE86c', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500');"Re: It's all about <s>money</s> or sornthing</a> <font color="#666666'>byDano</font></td>

<z/tr></table>

<table border="O"1 cellspacing= '0" cellpadding='0" width="l00%"><tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><zirg s-c=images/feedback_arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><cfont face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size='l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display-comment jsp?msgid=f3bbb56416', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500') ;">Re: Re: It's all about <s>money</s> or something</a> <font color="#666666">by Mark Wilson<c/font></td>

</tr><It able>

<table border="O" cellspacing="10" cellpadding="O" width="l0O%"><tr><td width=lQ valign=top> </td>

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<td width=1Q valign=top><img s c=irnages/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 helt=10></ td>

<td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nouenline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3bbca63f9', 'maint', scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500') ;'>Re: Re: It's all about <s>money</s> or something</a> <font color="#666666">by Dano</font></td>

<I/table>

<table border="0" cellspacing= '0" cellpadding="0" width="l00%"><tr><td width=1O valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td>I <td><font face="Verdana, Arial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display-comment. jsp?msgid=f3bbbe~a4O', maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500') ;">Re: It's all about money</a> <fon: color="#666666"1>by Steve L.</font></td>

</tr></table>

<table border="0" cellspacing= '0" cellpadding="0" width="l00%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img s-c=images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t =10>< /tL><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"1><a class~nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.openC 'display-conmment.jsp?msgid&f3bc260c11', 'maint','scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500')h">Re: Re: It's all about rnoney</a> font color="#666666">by Charlie tdcC.</font></td>

</ table>

<table border="0" cellspacing= 0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img s c=images/feediback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, 'sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onCliclc="wildow.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid=f3bc6lb~ab','maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');">Re: Re: It's all about money</a> cfont color="#666666">by freepete</font><

</table>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="1l00%"><tr><La width=10 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img s c=images/feddback arrownright.git width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi idow.openc 'display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3bc524042' , 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width= 40, height=500') ;'>Re: It's all about money'z/a> <font color="#666666"1>by freepete</font></td>

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</table>

<table border="10" cellspacing= '0" cellpadding="0" width="l00%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=l10>< /td>

<td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nouerline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi .dow.open( 'display comment.jsp?msgid=f3bc8d9a4c', 'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');"Global</a>&nbsppcfont color="#666666">oy Mike Weatherford</font></td>

</ table>

<table border="0" cellspacing= '0"1 cellpadding="0" width="100%",><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=10 valign=top><img src~images/fee dback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript: U' onClick="wi dow.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid=f3bcc09947', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');">Re: Global</a> <font color="#666656">by Steve L</font></td>

<I/table>

<table border="0" cellspacing= '0" cellpadding="O" width="l00%"><tr><td width=l0 va~lign=top><img s c=images/feedback-arrow right.gif width=9 hem

t=l0></td>

<td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nouerline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'di splay comment.jsp?msgid=f3be661c17', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');">Acting on imperfect information</a> <font colo'r="#666666">by Dave Brown</font></td>

<I/table>

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<input type="hidden" name="actionreq" value="login"><table cellpadding=2 cellspacing=l barder=O><tr><td><font face=verdana,arial size=l>Free weekly updates delivered to your inbox!<I font></td></tr><tr><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, H-elvetica, sans-serif" size="1l">E-Mail:</font></td>

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<tr><td calspan=3><input type=image src=images/right-submit.gif></td></tr>a/ rm>

<tr><td colspan=3><img src=images/spacer.gif height=30></td></tr>

<tr><td colspan=3><img src=images/right-opinion.gif></td></tr><tr><td width=l bgcolor=#003366><img src=images/spacer.gif width=l></td><td width=119 bgcolor=#E5F3FF><img src=images/spacer.gif width=1l9 height=l><br

<table cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1 ba der=O><tr><td calspan=2><fant face=verdana,erial size=1>Da you think <a href=http://w

ww. techcentralstation.com/1051/eflvirou rapper.jsp'?PiID=1051-450&CID=1O5l-O22 0 03E>

hydrogen</a> is a safe and stable alt rnative to traditional fuels?<br></font><

/td></tr>

<FORM NPAME="OnlinePoll" ACTI0O ="PollProcessor~jsp" METHOD="get">

<TNPUT TYPE=HTDDEN NAME="qID" VALUE="258"><INPUT. TYPE=H-IDDEN NAI4E='app~l" VALUJE="1051"><INPUT TYPE=H-IDDEN NAME="Forw rdPage" VALUE="envirowrapper. jsp?PTD=1051-450&

D=1051-030403E"><INPUT TYPE=HIDDEN NAI4E="CoakieName" VALUE="BCSPOLL">

<tr><td><INPUT TYPE=RADIO NAMI="Vote" VALTJE="l"></td><td><foant face=verdana,

ial size=l>Yes</font></td></tr>

<tr><td><TNPUT TYPE=RADTO NAMI="Vote" VALUE="12"></td><td><foant face=verdana,

ial size=l>No</fant></td></tr>

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<tr><td><INPUT TYPE=RADTO NAN ="Vote" VALUE="3"></td><td><foflt face=verdana,

lal size=l>Not Sure</font></td></tr>

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RCEC Email 3.5.03

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