The Public’s Take – The State of the Union

January 28, 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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1. A Look Back at 2013……………………………………………………….…...2

2. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future………………………………………………………………………………….8

3. Perceptions of Obama & Congress …………………………….………14

4. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward…………………....26

Slide

Year in Review: 2013

2013: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE STOCK MARKET

3

Sources: www.conference-board.org./ www.tradingeconomics.com

58.4 68 61.9 69 74.3 82.1 81 81.8 80.2 72.4 72 78.1

Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13

US Consumer Confidence

THE YEAR IN REVIEW: ECONOMIC INDICATORS

4

INDICATOR THEN January 2013

NOW December 2013

Unemployment Rate 7.9% 6.7%

Inflation Rate 1.7% 1.2%

Stock Market (DJIA) 13,412.60 16,576.66

Consumer Confidence Index 58.4 78.1

U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25%

Consumer Price Index (CPI) 231.198 234.582

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.tradingeconomics.com/

THE YEAR IN REVIEW – PERCEPTIONS OF THE ECONOMY

57% 64%

30% 30%

66% 61%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Country on Wrong Track Economy is Getting Worse* Economy is Bad*

5

End of 2013

Source: NBC/WSJ survey/ *CBS News/NYT Poll

Beginning of 2013

Compared with other years, do you think that 2013 was one of the best years for the United States, above average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States?

One of the best Above average About average Below average One of the worst

1% 6% 23% 44% 26%

THE YEAR IN REVIEW- PERCEPTIONS OF OBAMA

52%

43%

49%

39% 35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

Overall Job Approval Rating Job Approval on the Economy

6

Beginning of 2013 End of 2013

Source: NBC/WSJ survey

RATINGS DROP ACROSS THE BOARD IN 2013

7

Source: HuffPost Pollster

Government Shutdown in October was leading factor in these declines.

8

Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future

MAJORITY OF AMERICANS CONTINUE TO FEEL THE NATION IS ON THE WRONG TRACK

9

Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 27, 2014

The percentage of Americans saying

the nation is heading in the right

direction hasn’t topped 50 in about

a decade

RIGHT DIRECTION 29.2%

WRONG TRACK 61.9%

10

During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

19% 19% 20% 25%

18% 18%

9%

28%

18% 21%

24%

42%

34%

24%

42% 46%

41% 45%

38% 32% 34%

33%

49% 47% 48%

38%

42% 46%

38% 33% 35% 27% 36%

42% 45%

38% 32% 31%

27%

17% 23%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50% Will stay the same

Will get worse

Will get better

Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 4-8, 2013

EXPECTATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY JUMP AL L OVER THE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF 2013

GOVERNMENT ITSELF STILL CITED AS TOP U.S. PROBLEM

11

Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2014

What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?

MAJORITIES EXPECT DEBT AND HEALTH CARE COSTS TO GET WORSE IN NEXT YEAR

12

Sources: Bloomberg News National Poll, December 6-9, 2013

For each, please tell me if you expect things to be better in the next 12 months, worse, or about the same as the last 12 months?

16%

20%

22%

33%

40%

41%

19%

37%

15%

41%

32%

32%

63%

41%

61%

25%

27%

22%

The size of the national debt

America's economic standing in theworld

Health care costs

Overall strength of the economy

Job growth

The housing market

Better About the Same Worse

BUSH CONTINUES TO BE BLAMED FOR COUNTRY’S CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

13

Sources: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, December 12-15, 2013

Who do you think is more responsible for the country’s current economic problems – Barack Obama or George W. Bush?

29% 34% 32%

36% 38%

54% 49%

54% 51% 50%

Jan-12 May-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-13

Obama Bush

14

Perceptions of Obama & Congress

15

OBAMA STARTS 2014 WITH A JOB APPROVAL RATING IN THE LOW 40’s

Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 27, 2014

APPROVE 42.1%

DISAPPROVE 52.9%

Obama Overall Job Approval

16

OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL DECLINED STEADILY THROUGHOUT 2013

Source: Gallup Poll Data

52% 51% 48% 49% 49%

47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 41% 41%

% Approve, based on monthly averages in Gallup Daily tracking

64% 60% 58%

43% 42%

26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Reagan(1986)

Clinton(1998)

Eisenhower(1958)

G.W. Bush(2006)

Obama(2014)

Nixon(1974)

17

OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL BELOW HIS PREDECESSOR HEADING INTO 6th YEAR

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in January of Second Year of 2nd Term

Weekly Approval Rating Average

Jan 20 - 26

18

THE THREATENING THIRTIES

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

Presidential Party Performance in Midterms When President Has Sub-40% Approval Rating

President Year Approval at midterm election*

Party midterm performance

Senate House

Truman 1946 33% -12 -55 Truman 1950 39% -6 -29

G.W. Bush 2006 38% -6 -30

Note: Approval rating result from last Gallup poll prior to midterm election.

OBAMA ON THE ISSUES

34% 35% 39% 41% 52%

60% 61% 58% 51%

41%

The federalbudget

Health care Theeconomy

Foreignpolicy

Terrorism

Approve Disapprove

19

Source: Quinnipiac University Survey, January 4-7, 2014

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling…?

NEW HEALTH CARE LAW IS TOP ISSUE IN SHAPING OPINION OF OBAMA

9%

14%

16%

23%

25%

58%

Issues with the NSA and privacy

Domestic issues like immigration and guns

Issues in Syria and Iran

The government shutdown

The economy

The new health care law

20

Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 4-8, 2013

Which, if any, of the following issues the president has had to deal with this year has been most important in shaping your opinion of Barack Obama?

Up to two responses accepted

Note: “None,” ‘Other,” and “not sure” answers not shown

65% OF AMERICANS DISSATISFIED WITH HOW GOVERNMENT SYSTEM WORKS

21

Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2014

Please say whether you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with our system of government and how well it works.

THEREFORE, CONGRESS BEGINS 2014 WITH 13% APPROVAL

22

Source: Gallup Poll, January 7-10, 2013

Annual average for 2013, 14%, was lowest in Gallup history

NEITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE RECEIVES POSITIVE MARKS ON JOB PERFORMANCE

23

Do approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are doing their job?

Do approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are doing their job?

Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 8-12, 2014

Approve 34%

Disapprove 60%

Unsure 6%

Approve 25%

Disapprove 71%

Unsure 5%

MOST THINK GRIDLOCK IN DC WILL AFFECT GROWTH; GOP SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY TO BE BLAMED

24

Do you think the political gridlock in Washington will or will not affect economic growth in the U.S. in the next year?

Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, December 6-9, 2013

Will not affect economic

growth 17%

Will affect economic growth

78%

Not sure 5%

Approve 24%

Disapprove 71%

No opinion 4%

37% 43%

20%

PresidentObama and

Democrats inCongress

Republicansin Congress

Not sure

Who do you blame more for what’s gone wrong in Washington – President Obama and the Democrats in Congress or the Republicans in Congress?

HALF SAY AMERICA’S SYSTEM OF DEMOCRACY NEEDS EITHER “A LOT OF CHANGES” OR A COMPLETE OVERHAUL

25

Source: AP-NORC Center Poll, December 12-16, 2013

All in all, how well or badly do you think the system of democracy in America works these days Would you say it…?

10%

41%

42%

5%

Needs to be completely changed

Needs a lot of changes

Works well but needs some changes

Works well and needs no changes

51%

Note: “Refused” answers not shown

26

Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward

ECONOMY, JOBS DOMINATE PUBLIC AGENDA

27

I'd like to ask you about priorities for President Obama and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think each should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important or should it not be done.

Source: Pew Research Center, January 15-19, 2014

ECONOMY, JOBS, TERRORISM RANK HIGH ACROSS PARTISAN GROUPS

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Democrats Top Priority

Strengthening the nation’s economy

85%

Improving the job situation

81%

Improving the educational system

80%

Defending the country from future terrorist attacks

70%

Reducing health care costs

67%

Republicans Top Priority

Defending the country from future terrorist attacks

81%

Reducing the budget deficit

80%

Strengthening the nation’s economy

75%

Taking steps to make the Social Security system financially sound

72%

Improving the job situation

66%

Source: Pew Research Center, January 15-19, 2014

BUT AMERICANS EXPRESS LITTLE HOPE THAT FEDERAL GOV’T WILL MAKE PROGRESS ON THE NATION’S BIGGEST PROBLEMS

29

Source: AP-NORC Center Poll, December 12-16, 2013

How confident are you in the ability of the FEDERAL government to make progress on the important problems and issues facing the country in 2014?

30%

40%

23%

3% 1%

Not at allconfident

Not veryconfident

Moderatelyconfident

Very confident Extremelyconfident

70% Not at all / Not very confident

VERY FEW FEEL HEALTH CARE LAW SHOULD BE KEPT IN PLACE AS IS

30

Which comes closest to your view about the 2010 health care law? The law is working well and should be kept in place as is. There are some good things in the law, but some changes are needed to make it work better. OR, The law has so much wrong with it that it needs to be repealed entirely.

Source: CBS News Poll, January 17-21, 2014

34%

56%

6%

Needs to be repealed

Changes are needed

Should be kept as is

Note: “DK/NA” answers not shown

VARIOUS POLLS SHOW SUPPORT FOR EXTENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS

31

Source: Various Polls

January 20-23, 2014

ABC/WashPost: Congress is considering whether or not again to extend the period in which people who’ve lost their jobs can get unemployment benefits. (Supporters say this will help those who can't find work.) (Opponents say this adds too much to the federal budget deficit.) Do you think Congress should or should not approve another extension of unemployment benefits?

CBS News: Do you think the government should extend unemployment benefits for people who are currently out of work, or shouldn't it do that?

Pew: Thinking about some government policies, do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose a one year extension of federal unemployment benefits for people who have been out of work for a long time?

Should Should not

No opinion

60% 37% 3%

Should Should not

Depends/ DK

65% 29% 7% January 17-21, 2014

January 15-19, 2014

Favor [NET]

Oppose [NET] DK/REF

63% 34% 3%

STRONG SUPPORT FOR RAISING FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGE to $10.10

32

Source: CBS News Poll, January 17-21, 2014

As you may know, the federal minimum wage is currently $7.25 an hour. Do you favor or oppose raising the minimum wage to $10.10?

Favor 72% Oppose

26%

No opinion, 1%

Large majorities of Democrats and independents favor a hike in the minimum wage, while Republicans are split:

Favor Oppose Reps 48% 51% Dems 88% 10% Inds 75% 24%

MOST WANT SOME TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN DESPITE STRONG CRITICISM OF THE WAR

33

Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, December 12-15, 2013

30%

66%

41%

55%

Worth fighting Not worthfighting

Remove allU.S. forces

Remove most,keep some

On another subject, all in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war in Afghanistan has been worth fighting, or not?

In the year ahead, would you rather have the United States remove all U.S. forces from Afghanistan or remove most U.S. forces from Afghanistan but keep some there for training and anti-insurgency operations?

Note: “No opinion” answers not shown

AMERICANS DIVIDED ON ALLOWING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS TO BE GIVEN RIGHT TO LIVE AND WORK HERE LEGALLY

34

Do you think undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States should or should not be given the right to live and work here legally?

Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, January 20-23, 2014

Should 49%

Should not 49%

No opinion, 3%

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpgdc.com)