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Protection of the public and the environment standards? Rodolfo Avila.
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Transcript of Protection of the public and the environment standards? Rodolfo Avila.
Protection of the public and the environment
standards?
Rodolfo Avila
Outline
• Risk - a probabilistic concept• How to quantify risks • The ICRP’s Representative Individual• Example: Assessments for High Level
Waste Repositories• Standards • Handling of uncertainties
Definition of Risk
• The word risk derives from the early Italian “risicare” , which means to dare
• Risk is the "possibility of loss or injury: peril.” (Webster Dictionary, 1999)
Decision under uncertaintyIngredients:
• A partition of possible states of affairs
• The possible acts that the agent can undertake
• The utilities of the consequences of each possible act, in each possible state of affairs of the partition
Le pari de Pascal Pensees, 1660
God is, or he is not. Which way should you incline?
”Reason cannot answer”
God is God
is not
Devoted + ∞ 0
Bohemian -∞ 0
Antoine Arnauld 1662
• Fear of harm ought to be proportional not merely to the gravity of harm, but also to the probability of the event(”La logique, ou l´art de penser” a bestseller at the time)
The concept of risk has (two) elements: the likelihood of something happening and the consequences if it happens
Expectation
• The expected value of an act is the sum of the products (Utilities x probabilities)
God is God
is not
Expectation
Devoted + - 0/+/-
Bohemian -∞ + -∞
Dominance expected value rule
• In every admissible probability distribution, one act has greater expected value than every other act, then this act dominates the others in expected value
If one act dominates the others in expected value
DO IT!
What is probability?
• The ancient Greek word meant plausible or probable. Socrates defined it as ”likeness to truth”
• Probability is a measure of our confidence that something is going to happen. Probable means to be expected with some degree of certainty
Conditional probabilities
• Any probability P(E) of an event E is conditional to some stipulated model or assumption (A1), it should strictly be written P(E|A1), i.e. the probability of E, given A1.
• There may be other assumptions (A2, A3, A4, … Ai) in addition to the assumption A1 believed to be the most likely.
How can this fact be taken into account?
”A priori” and ”a posteriori”
• A priori probability- estimated before the fact. Can be reliable ”only for the most part”
• A posteriori probability- estimated after the fact. By taking a sufficient large sample, you can increase your confidence in the estimated probability to whatever degree you wish.
But, how reliable this probability is for predicting future events?
Measuring Risk
• Risk is the probability that the Exposure is above the Standard
• The Risk Quotient
RQ = Exposure/Standard
From Releases to Harmful Effects
Releases
Con
tam
inat
ion
Exposure of Man
Exposure of biota
Effects of Man
Effects on biota
Representative individual - ICRP
• Since dose to the public cannot be measured directly, it must be estimated using environmental concentrations and appropriate habit data. Therefore, for the purpose of protection of the public, it is necessary to define a hypothetical exposed person to be used for determining compliance with the dose constraint and for introduction of a practice.
• This is the representative individual. The representative individual is the hypothetical individual receiving a dose that is representative of the most highly exposed individuals in the population.
Dose Distribution
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 0.625 1.25 1.875 2.5
Dose constrain
Example HLW repository
The regulatory requirement
• One way of defining the most exposed group is to include the individuals that receive a risk in the interval from the highest risk down to a tenth of this risk. If a larger number of individuals are considered to be included in such a group, the arithmetic average of individual risks in the group should be used for demonstrating compliance with the criterion for individual risk in the regulations (i.e. 10-6 per year)….
• If the group only consists of a few individuals, the criterion of the regulations of individual risks can be considered of being complied with if the highest calculated individual risk does not exceed 10-5 per year….
1632000
1632000
1634000
1634000
670
000
0
670
000
0
0 10,5 km
From GSD-Terrängkartan © LantmäteriverketGävle 2001, Consent M2001/52682004-xx-xx 00:00
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1632000
1632000
1634000
1634000
670
000
0
670
000
0
0 10,5 km
From GSD-Terrängkartan © LantmäteriverketGävle 2001, Consent M2001/52682004-xx-xx 00:00
1632000
1632000
1634000
1634000
670
000
0
670
000
0
0 10,5 km
From GSD-Terrängkartan © LantmäteriverketGävle 2001, Consent M2001/52682004-xx-xx 00:00
Lake
Lake
Lake
Mire
Mire
Mire
Mire
Mire
Coast
Forest
RunningWater
Coast
Mire
+
+
+
+
++
Dose Distribution
10-14
10-13
10-12
10-11
10-10
0107
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
5 25 4 9 14 8
6
10
13 24 7 21
18 26 15
12 19 20
11
17
16 22 3 2
23
Dose, Sv/y per Bq/y
N
ID5 (0.1) mire
ID25
(0.1) runwat
ID4 (4.1) coast
ID9 (78.6) agriland
ID14
(6.0) lake
ID8 (304.2) agriland
ID6 (234.6) agriland
ID10
(226.7) agriland
ID13
(2.8) lake
ID24
(0.1) runwat
ID7 (87.8) agriland
ID21
(145.1) agriland
ID18
(109.5) agriland
ID26
(0.4) runwat
ID15
(141.6) agriland
ID12
(169.7) agriland
ID19
(88.4) agriland
ID20
(279.1) agriland
ID11
(258.2) agriland
ID17
(763.9) agriland
ID16
(55.7) agriland
ID22
(0.0) runwat
ID3 (82.9) coast
ID2 (1070.0) coast
ID23
(0.3) runwat
max/10 (3e-012)
max (3e-011)N (107)
Selecting the appropriate type of standard
ReleasesC
onta
min
atio
n
Exposure of Man
Exposure of biota
Effects of Man
Effects on biota
Release rate Concentrations Dose rates, doses probability of effects
Total releases Affected area Collective dose number of effects
Measuring Risk with Probabilistic Standards
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0 15 30 45
Measuring Risk
• Risk is the probability that the Exposure is above the Standard
• The Risk Quotient
RQ = Exposure/Standard
Risk Profile
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 0.625 1.25 1.875 2.5
1
Protection of the public and the environment
standards?
Rodolfo Avila
Outline
• Risk - a probabilistic concept• How to quantify risks • The ICRP’s Representative Individual• Example: Assessments for High Level
Waste Repositories• Standards • Handling of uncertainties
Definition of Risk
• The word risk derives from the early Italian “risicare” , which means to dare
• Risk is the "possibility of loss or injury: peril.” (Webster Dictionary, 1999)
Decision under uncertaintyIngredients:
• A partition of possible states of affairs
• The possible acts that the agent can undertake
• The utilities of the consequences of each possible act, in each possible state of affairs of the partition
Le pari de Pascal Pensees, 1660
God is, or he is not. Which way should you incline?
”Reason cannot answer”
God is God
is not
Devoted + ∞ 0
Bohemian -∞ 0
Antoine Arnauld 1662
• Fear of harm ought to be proportional not merely to the gravity of harm, but also to the probability of the event(”La logique, ou l´art de penser” a bestseller at the time)
The concept of risk has (two) elements: the likelihood of something happening and the consequences if it happens
Expectation
• The expected value of an act is the sum of the products (Utilities x probabilities)
God is God
is not
Expectation
Devoted + - 0/+/-
Bohemian -∞ + -∞
Dominance expected value rule
• In every admissible probability distribution, one act has greater expected value than every other act, then this act dominates the others in expected value
If one act dominates the others in expected value
DO IT!
What is probability?
• The ancient Greek word meant plausible or probable. Socrates defined it as ”likeness to truth”
• Probability is a measure of our confidence that something is going to happen. Probable means to be expected with some degree of certainty
Conditional probabilities
• Any probability P(E) of an event E is conditional to some stipulated model or assumption (A1), it should strictly be written P(E|A1), i.e. the probability of E, given A1.
• There may be other assumptions (A2, A3, A4, … Ai) in addition to the assumption A1 believed to be the most likely.
How can this fact be taken into account?
”A priori” and ”a posteriori”
• A priori probability- estimated before the fact. Can be reliable ”only for the most part”
• A posteriori probability- estimated after the fact. By taking a sufficient large sample, you can increase your confidence in the estimated probability to whatever degree you wish.
But, how reliable this probability is for predicting future events?
Measuring Risk
• Risk is the probability that the Exposure is above the Standard
• The Risk Quotient
RQ = Exposure/Standard
From Releases to Harmful Effects
Releases
Con
tam
inat
ion
Exposure of Man
Exposure of biota
Effects of Man
Effects on biota
Representative individual - ICRP
• Since dose to the public cannot be measured directly, it must be estimated using environmental concentrations and appropriate habit data. Therefore, for the purpose of protection of the public, it is necessary to define a hypothetical exposed person to be used for determining compliance with the dose constraint and for introduction of a practice.
• This is the representative individual. The representative individual is the hypothetical individual receiving a dose that is representative of the most highly exposed individuals in the population.
Dose Distribution
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 0.625 1.25 1.875 2.5
Dose constrain
Example HLW repository
The regulatory requirement
• One way of defining the most exposed group is to include the individuals that receive a risk in the interval from the highest risk down to a tenth of this risk. If a larger number of individuals are considered to be included in such a group, the arithmetic average of individual risks in the group should be used for demonstrating compliance with the criterion for individual risk in the regulations (i.e. 10-6 per year)….
• If the group only consists of a few individuals, the criterion of the regulations of individual risks can be considered of being complied with if the highest calculated individual risk does not exceed 10-5 per year….
1632000
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From GSD-Terrängkartan © LantmäteriverketGävle 2001, Consent M2001/52682004-xx-xx 00:00
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1632000
1632000
1634000
1634000
670
000
0
670
000
0
0 10,5 km
From GSD-Terrängkartan © LantmäteriverketGävle 2001, Consent M2001/52682004-xx-xx 00:00
1632000
1632000
1634000
1634000
670
000
0
670
000
0
0 10,5 km
From GSD-Terrängkartan © LantmäteriverketGävle 2001, Consent M2001/52682004-xx-xx 00:00
Lake
Lake
Lake
Mire
Mire
Mire
Mire
Mire
Coast
Forest
RunningWater
Coast
Mire
+
+
+
+
++
Dose Distribution
10-14
10-13
10-12
10-11
10-10
0107
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
5 25 4 9 14 8
6
10
13 24 7 21
18 26 15
12 19 20
11
17
16 22 3 2
23
Dose, Sv/y per Bq/y
N
ID5 (0.1) mire
ID25
(0.1) runwat
ID4 (4.1) coast
ID9 (78.6) agriland
ID14
(6.0) lake
ID8 (304.2) agriland
ID6 (234.6) agriland
ID10
(226.7) agriland
ID13
(2.8) lake
ID24
(0.1) runwat
ID7 (87.8) agriland
ID21
(145.1) agriland
ID18
(109.5) agriland
ID26
(0.4) runwat
ID15
(141.6) agriland
ID12
(169.7) agriland
ID19
(88.4) agriland
ID20
(279.1) agriland
ID11
(258.2) agriland
ID17
(763.9) agriland
ID16
(55.7) agriland
ID22
(0.0) runwat
ID3 (82.9) coast
ID2 (1070.0) coast
ID23
(0.3) runwat
max/10 (3e-012)
max (3e-011)N (107)
Selecting the appropriate type of standard
ReleasesC
onta
min
atio
n
Exposure of Man
Exposure of biota
Effects of Man
Effects on biota
Release rate Concentrations Dose rates, doses probability of effects
Total releases Affected area Collective dose number of effects
Measuring Risk with Probabilistic Standards
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0 15 30 45
Measuring Risk
• Risk is the probability that the Exposure is above the Standard
• The Risk Quotient
RQ = Exposure/Standard
Risk Profile
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 0.625 1.25 1.875 2.5
1
