Pretotyping g motta agile brazil 2013
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotyping
Guilherme Motta@gfcmotta
gfcmotta at gmail
Garanta que voce esta construindo “a coisa” certaAntes de construir certo “a coisa”
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@gfcmotta
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Tive uma ideia genial!
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Background do Alberto
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotyping
Alberto Savoia
PretotypeLabs+
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• 1999-2001
Startup 1
• 3M USD Series A
• +18 meses depois..
• vendeu por $100M
Hey, this is easy!
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• 2001-2002
Entrou na Google como Diretor de Eng
• ..., lançou AdWords, ...
Hey, I’m good!
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• 2002-2008
Startup 2
• $25M Series A, B, C
• +5 anos depois..
• ~$0
WTF?
Porque o
fracasso?
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2008-2012
Innovation AgitatorEngineering Diretor
Estudando fracasso de novos Produtos
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A Lei do Fracasso
A maioria das novas ideias falham
...
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Mais de 95% dos aplicativos mobile nao sao lucrativos
4 a cada 5 startups disperdicam o dinheiro dos investidores
As tecnologias mais inovadoras falham no mercado
...
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Em um ano, 24.543 novos produtos*
Falharam 27%
Desapontaram 16%
Cancelados 37%
Sucesso 14%
“Espetaculares” 6%
Total 100%
* Nielsen
80%
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Novos Produtos
Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough (exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or categoryExtension
1,705 6.9%
“Me too” (exemplo: genericos)
18,814 76.7%
Others(seasonal, etc.)
3,690 15.0%
Total 24,543 100%
* Nielsen
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Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough (exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or categoryExtension
1,705 6.9%
“Me too” (exemplo: genericos)
18,814 76.7%
Others(seasonal, etc.)
3,690 15.0%
Total 24,543 100%
Novos Produtos
* Nielsen
Porque?
Porque?
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Novos Produtos
* Nielsen
Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough (exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or categoryExtension
1,705 6.9%
“Me too” (exemplo: genericos)
18,814 76.7%
Others(seasonal, etc.)
3,690 15.0%
Total 24,543 100%
Pouca disputa,
Pouca disputa,
Mas GRANDE resultado
Mas GRANDE resultado
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A Lei do Fracasso
A maioria das novas ideias falham
MESMO QUE ELAS SEJAM MUITO BEM EXECUTADAS
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Iridium satellite phone system (66 satellites, $6B)
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• “New Coke” ou “Crystal Pepsi” (est. $50M)
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Filme “John Carter” ($275M + $100M in marketing)
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Google Wave (~$20-30M)
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Segway transporter (~$180M in funding)
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Pontiac Aztek ($200M+)
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Apple Newton (est. $50M)
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• CueCat USB barcode scanner ($180M)
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Microsoft Bob or “Clippy” (est. $50M)
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Ate mesmo com..
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com o Google..
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com a Microsoft..
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com inventores e VCs brilhantes
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com os melhores marketeiros do
mundo
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Com voce nao?
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OUCH!
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
HIT or FLOP
F.L.O.P.Fracasso emLancamentoOperacional ouProposito
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Pretotypingao Resgate!
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Garanta que voce esta construindo “a coisa” certa
Antes de construir certo
“a coisa”
Pretotyping
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Mas como que voce sabe se voce tem a “coisa” certa?
NAO PERGUNTE!
Literalmente.. Nao pergunte.
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Ideias +Perguntas =PROBLEMA
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IDEIAIDEIA
Opinião Opinião
Opinião Opinião
Opinião Opinião
Bem vindo aBem vindo a
Terra das Terra das IdeiasIdeias
[email protected] Alberto Savoia www.pretotyping.org
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VisaoVisaoIdeiasIdeiasOpinioesOpinioesPaixaoPaixao
RealidadeRealidadeArtefatosArtefatos
DadosDados RazaoRazao
Pretotyping
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Terra das IdeiasOnde todas as ideias sao um sucesso!
Falso Po
sitivo
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Terra das IdeiasOnde todas as ideias sao um fracasso!
Falso Ne
gativo
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??????
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Fuja da Terra das Ideias!
Opinioes -> Dados
Perguntas -> Acoes
Ideias -> Pretotypes
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Mas o que e’pretotype?
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O original Palm “Pre”
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Dear Mr. Jones,
In reply to your letter dated ...
$$$$$$$
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“Nos amamos a ideia de traducao de fala para texto e nos estamos dispostos a pagar muito dinheiro se voce conseguir
construir bem feito”
Antes dos testescom pretotype
Porcentagem de
pessoas interessadas
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Dear Mr. Jones,
In reply to your letter dated ...
Pretendotype
Pretotype
X
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“Veja bem..”
Antes dopretotype
Depois dopretotype
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Fail Fast
Compulsividadepara continuar
minutos horas dias semanas
Tempo investido
meses anos
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Pretotyping“Fake it” antes de fazer a coisa
Prototyping• Investimento: dias, semanas• Pergunta principal: Conseguimos construir?• Entregavel: prototipo funcional
Pretotyping• Investimento: horas, dias• Pergunta principal: Voce usaria?• Entregavel: pretotype “funcional”
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Pretotyping“Fake it” antes de fazer a coisa
Prototyping• Investimento: dias, semanas• Pergunta principal: Conseguimos construir?• Entregavel: prototipo funcional
Pretotyping• Investimento: horas, dias• Pergunta principal: Voce usaria?• Entregavel: pretotype “funcional”
Como con
struir?
Como ser
a utiliz
ado?
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•Prototipo de Papel
•Prototipo de Volume
•Encenacao
•Storyboard
•…
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Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping],
verb: Validating the market appeal and actual usage of a potential objectively, quantifiably and with the smallest possible investment of time and money.
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Exemplos de tecnicas
Pretotyping
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The Fake DoorPretotypes
Pretotype Itwww.pretotypeitbook.comThe official book on pretotypingby Alberto Savoia. Only $20.00
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Mechanical TurkPretotypes
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PinocchioPretotypes
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Pretotypes Personificador
Produto Produto Existente Existente
ou ou embalageembalage
mm
Nova “casca”Nova “casca”
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One-Night StandPretotypes
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PretoStorming
Brainstorming : Ideas -> Opinions
Pretostorming : Pretotypes -> Data
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MVPPretotypes
MinimumViableProduct
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Pretotypingin
Action
Mobile Apps
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Android Pretotyping Kit 0.1The Birth of Android Pretotyping
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SendSend
ParkJerk
AndrogenPretotyping Tool for Android
+ + =?
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AndrogenPretotype working Android
apps in minutes
A
179.2179.2
SendSend
Enter your weight:
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Pretotype It!Pawsbook: Social network for pets (B2C)
GhostBus: Self-driving city buses (B2B, B2Gov)
Offering free lunch and dinner to all employees (Internal)
UNuke: Small nuclear power stations for rural communities (B2Gov)
Vanity Fare: Food/drinks enriched with ingredients for great skin and hair (B2B)
HappyGlass: Windows that convert/create light spectrum to fight SAD (Seasonal Affective
Disorders) (B2B or B2C)
GoldHound: A luxury version of GreyHound with first-class seating and treatment (B2B)
InstaNap: The opposite of energy drinks like RedBull or 5hr Energy (B2B)
SpeedInterviewing: Like speed-dating but for candidate interviews (Internal)
2nd-day Sushi: Less-fresh but lower-cost sushi (B2C)
Rent-a-mechanic: Rent an expert for used car shopping and negotiating (B2C)
Self-funded extended warranty: Automatically saves in a your fund from each purchase (B2C)
EatSlow plates: Food plates that open and close to slow down your eating (B2C)
Biodegradable holiday lights: Lights that take themselves down after the holidays (B2C)
TakeMySpot: Mobile app/service to auction the parking spot you are about to vacate (B2C, B2Gov)
OopsMail: a corporate email filter that automatically detects & re-routs inappropriate emails
(B2C, Internal)
Fake-a-Mate: Rent a pretend great boy/girlfriend for social events (B2C)
ReviewsNow: a mobile app for on-the-spot/real-time employee micro-reviews and feedback
(Internal)
MeetGrinder: a smart corporate calendar that (re)arranges meetings to maximize meeting-free
time (B2B, Internal)
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Quer saber mais?
PDF Gratis e na AmazonQuer em Portugues? Ajude a traduzir!
Livros Videos
Twitter: @gfcmotta
[email protected] Twitter: @Pretotyping
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
PretoMetrics
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping],
verb: Validating the market appeal and actual usage of a potential objectively, quantifiably and with the smallest possible investment of time and money.
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
An Intro toPretotyping Metrics
RPI: Return on Pretotyping Investment
ILI/OLI: Initial/Ongoing Level of Interest
PretoBayesian Metrics: How to factor in the impact of pretotyping data in decision making
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
RPIReturn on
PretotypingInvestment
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Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro)RPI = ______________ _____________
Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre)X
RPI
How much (%) can you learn from a given pretotype compared to the full product.
How much (%) can you learn from a prototype or final product. Set to 100% for the final product.
How much would it cost (time or $) to develop and test/market a prototype or the final product.
How much would it cost (time or $) to create and test a given pretotype.
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RPI for a WebvanPretotype
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What should we learn?(before we blow $100M)
Will people use the web to order groceries?
What % of people would use it?
How often would they use it?
Will people in cities use it more than people in suburbs?
What kind of products will they buy?
What’s the $ value of average transaction?
How many will continue to use it after the novelty has worn off?
...
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Pretotype for
Pretotype 1: MVP
Create a high-quality website.
Advertise locally in a major city (e.g., San Francisco) and a suburb (e.g., Palo Alto.)
If/when orders come in, purchase food at existing stores.
Rent delivery trucks and hire temporary personnel to deliver food.
Run experiment for, say, 4 weeks.
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Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro)RPI = ______________ _____________
Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre)X
$ RPI for
.75 $100M
1.00 $1M
RPI = .75 x 100 = 75 = 7500% cheaper
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RPI vs RIP
We shouldaWe shouldapretotyped pretotyped
it!it!Yup.Yup.
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Time RPI for
.50 60 mos
.80 1 mos
RPI = .62 x 60 = 37.5x “faster learning”
Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro)RPI = ______________ _____________
Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre)X
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ILI/OLILevel of Interest
(If we build, will they come?)
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ILI
Initial Level of Interest:
What % of a target group is interested in ‘it’ to give it a try?
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ILI
ILI = ________________________________
# invited to try ‘it’
# who’ve actually tried ‘it’
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Small representativesample (~100-
1,000)
I (1000)
Time
T (741)
ILI in Action
Target market
ILI = 741/1,000 = .741
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OLI
Ongoing Level of Interest:
What % of a target group continues to use/buy ‘it’ after they’ve tried it.
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OLI(t)
OLI(t) = __________________________________________
# who tried ‘it’
# still using ‘it’ after time t
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Time
I (people invited to try innovation)
T (people who actually try it)
R4 (...4 weeks)R2 (...2 weeks)
R1 (return/retained users after 1 week)
ILI: Initial Level of Interest
OLI: Ongoing Level of Interest
OLI in Action