Pradeep Samudra - GLGi 4G Update 12.18.07 com

8/8/2019 Pradeep Samudra - GLGi 4G Update 12.18.07 com

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GLGi: 4G Cellular - The What, Why and When

Pradeep SamudraIndependent Consultant


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2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

Council Member Biography

Pradeep Samudra, now an independent consultant at Tellabs, was most recently(10/06) a Vice President at Samsung Telecommunications. He has over 25 years ofexperience in the telecommunications industry. He is a holder of 7 recent patents

and 6 pending applications in the area of Wireless/IP/MPLS/ATM routing and isknowledgeable about the business and technologies of 3G/4G/CDMA/GSM/WiMAX/xDSL/FTTx/VoIP and IPTV technologies. He is also experienced indeveloping and marketing broadband and wireless network systems and products.Mr. Samudra has spoken at internationally recognized conferences on topicsranging from market and technology forecasts, planning and deployment. He was amember of the Board of Directors for the prestigious industry standards alliance,

ATIS. Recently he managed nationwide VoIP deployment and an IPTV trial in the

US. He is knowledgeable in the telecom vertical segment, key players, theirstrategies, prospects for agents of change and in next-gen wireless technologiessuch as 3G/3G LTE/Super 3G and 4G, broadband access and core networks.


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Table of Contents

A Quick Review of Cellular Technologies

T Definition of 4G

Why do we need 4G?

T Technologies, standards bodies and vendors/proponents

The market dynamic: A global perspective

T Global Trends

The Time Line for 4G

T Enablers and Inhibitors


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About GLG Institute

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Gerson Lehrman Group Contacts

John Aronsohn

Vice President, TMT

Gerson Lehrman Group

850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor

New York, NY 10022

212-984-3673

[email protected]

Aaron Liberman

Managing Director, Sales and Marketing



New York, NY 10022

212-984-3684

[email protected]

Carly Pisarri

Process Manager



New York, NY 10022

212-750-1435

[email protected]


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IMPORTANT GLG INSTITUTE DISCLAIMER By making contact with this/these Council Members andparticipating in this event, you specifically acknowledge, understand and agree that you must not seek outmaterial non-public or confidential information from Council Members. You understand and agree that theinformation and material provided by Council Members is provided for your own insight and educationalpurposes and may not be redistributed or displayed in any form without the prior written consent of GersonLehrman Group. You agree to keep the material provided by Council Members for this event and the businessinformation of Gerson Lehrman Group, including information about Council Members, confidential until suchinformation becomes known to the public generally and except to the extent that disclosure may be required bylaw, regulation or legal process. You must respect any agreements they may have and understand the CouncilMembers may be constrained by obligations or agreements in their ability to consult on certain topics andanswer certain questions. Please note that Council Members do not provide investment advice, nor do theyprovide professional opinions. Council Members who are lawyers do not provide legal advice and no attorney-client relationship is established from their participation in this project.

You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group does not screen and is not responsible for the contentof materials produced by Council Members. You understand and agree that you will not hold Council Membersor Gerson Lehrman Group liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided to you by theCouncil Members. You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall have no liability whatsoeverarising from your attendance at the event or the actions or omissions of Council Members including, but notlimited to claims by third parties relating to the actions or omissions of Council Members, and you agree torelease Gerson Lehrman Group from any and all claims for lost profits and liabilities that result from yourparticipation in this event or the information provided by Council Members, regardless of whether or not suchliability arises is based in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise. You acknowledge and agree that GersonLehrman Group shall not be liable for any incidental, consequential, punitive or special damages, or any otherindirect damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages arising from your attendance at the event oruse of the information provided at this event.


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Pradeep Samudra December 2007 Page 7 of 27

YearCommercialized

GSM/UMTS(3GPP)

CDMA(3GPP2)

IEEE

(802.16, 20,22)

Capacity(bps)

2G 1998 GSM 1X RTT 30K-90 K

2.5G 2002 GPRS/EDGE 1X EVDOr0 150K

3G 2006 WCDMA 1X EVDOrA 400K-700K

3.5-9G 2006-8 HSPA+/OFDMA nX EVDOrB/C 2007: 802.16e(WiMAX)

1M-15M

nextG ?OFDMA/MIMO

(LTE/SAE?)UMB (TEF?)

2009:802.16m

(WiMAX+?)

?

4GPP?/4G Forum

Cellular Technologies 2G-4G

LTE/SAE Long Term Evolution (3GPP)/System Architecture EvolutionMIMO Multiple Input/Multiple Output

OFDMA Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple AccessTEF Technology Evolution Framework (3GPP2/CDG)UMB Ultra Mobile Broadband

3G = 1st Gen of Mobile Broadband

4G = Wireline Substitutable and Mobile

1. What is 4G?


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Wireless Technology Evolution to

3.9G

CDMA(IS-95A)

GSM

CDMA(IS-95B)

cdma2000

1xEV-DO

Rev 0/A/B

UMB802.20

2G

2.5G

3G

3.5G

3.9G

GPRS

E-GPRSEDGE

HSDPA

FDD/TDD

TDMAIS-136

WCDMAFDD/TDD

TD-SCDMA

LCR-TDD

HSUPA

FDD/TDD

HSPA+LTE

E-UTRA

IEEE802.16

FixedWiMAX

802.16d

MobileWiMAX802.16e

WiBRO

IEEE802.11

802.11g

802.11a

802.11g

802.11n

CDMA GSM/UMTS IEEE Cellular IEEE LAN

1. What is 4G?


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ITUs Vision for the Next Gen Access

1. What is 4G?


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The Next Gen Vision

DistinctionsbetweenPortability, NomadicityandMobilityare eliminated.ConnectivityisABC AlwaysBestConnected.

Commercial services in multi-user environments targeting peak

data rates approaching 100 Mbps forhighly mobile users and

up to 1 Gbps for nomadic (low mobility or stationery) users

1. High data rates Efficient spectrum utilization (up to 10 b/s/Hz)

Advanced antenna and modulationtechniques

100 Mbps @250 KMph or 1 Gbps nomadic/portable

2. IP/Web based services QoS for peer-peer services

3.Reconfigurable/dynamic

service provisionable

May use sensor/cognitive networks

4. Seamless roamingamong heterogeneousnetworks

2G/2.5G/3G/3.xG/LTE, WLAN/WMAN/WPAN,DVB, DAB

Backward compatible

5. Scalable up and down In cost, performance and power

6. Open Access? Any device, any app, any network, any place..

1. What is 4G?


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Goal: A Unified Architecture1. What is 4G?


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Integration Challenge: The Next GenUniverse

1. What is 4G?


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The Service Continuity Challenge

1. What is 4G?


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3G: Some Unfinished

BusinessFinancial

Balance sheet cleanup(debt reduction)

Capacity Utilization

Business Models forNew Services

Technical

Improved coverage(e.g., residences)

Inter technology roaming

Inter carrier compensation(esp. data services)

The goalofUniversal, Ubiquitous,andInteroperable Serviceataffordable price hasnotyetbeenachieved.

1. What is 4G?


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So What is 4G?

Another incremental increase over 3.9G? 5 7 14 40 Mbps of HSPA

Just another fat pipe?

Limited to OFDMA?

WiMAX+, UMB and LTE are variations (all use OFDMA DL).

Non-compatible Heterogeneous Networks? Non-roaming, closed networks

Non-IMS based? P2P, Web 2.0 domination

WithadefinitionnotbasedonIMT-A, 4G canhave adifficulttime meetingcostandconnectivitygoals

1. What is 4G?


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A Look at Fundamental Requirements

Human Sense Sound Sight Knowledge

Network Generation

1G-2G Voice - Low Speed Data

3G Voice Images Hypertext (HT)

4G Voice, Speech VideoFiles (Speech, HT,

Video)

Typical Bandwidth 10-80 Kbps 1 - 20 Mbps 0.5-10 Mbps

Required Latency


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Trends in New Applications2. Why 4G?Mobile marketing andadvertising

Business potential viewed with great enthusiasm withindominant and leading markets.

Mobile Search Knee for takeoff : replicate desktop success

M-commerce/M-Wallet SMS messaging enables interactivity with other forms ofentertainment (e.g., Polling)., Credit purchases.

Mobile Gaming Evolving into Casual Gaming with challenges fordistribution and revenue collection.

Mobile e-Mail Going mass scale as productivity enhancer to move intorank and file employees beyond executives and field salesforce.

Presence, MMS, InstantConferencing, push-to-video, and mobilenews

MusicStation (UK) from Vodafone: Omniphones deal withTelenor (Sweden), 3 (HK), and Vodacom (SA).

Content Focus shifting from Major Media Brand - Formal Contentto User Generated Content in mobile networks. Photoswapping, mobile social media, one-to-onecommunications

Revenue sharing Music and video sharing, with subscribers via ads and P2PE.g., SeeMeTV by 3 allows video uploaders to get paidwhentheir content is downloaded.

Webco Platform Deals with (Vodafone/MySpace, Sprint/GOOG),Android


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Key Business Trends

1. Global Telecom Spending Patterns Realigning Early growth in international capex, US capex lag

2. Rise in Mobile Data Revenues Internationally ARPUs up by 25% CAGR, US [< 5% CAGR]

3. 50% Rise in Mobile Voice Subscribers [+1.4B] International +100%, US +15%

Emerging markets to remain unsaturated through 2012

Mobile broadband subscribers up 275% [+750M]

4. New Mobile Services Taking Hold SK/Japan/Nordics Provide impetus to mobile data services

5. Operators Consolidating Domestically While ExpandingOverseas

E.g., AT&T Mobility India, Telefonica (+TIM) CALA

2. Why 4G?


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Examples of Mobile Data Services

Country Operator Service

1 USA T-Mobile BlackBerry Email and IM

2 USA SprintNextel, VZW Mobile Broadband (EvDOrA)

3 UK 3 Mobile TV and Video Streaming

4 Italy Vodafone Casa FastWEB

5 Italy 3 Mobile TV Broadcasting6 Egypt Vodafone MiniCall BubbleTALK Voice SMS

7 Japan NTT DoCoMo DCMX Mobile Payment

8 Japan KDDI EZ Chaku-uta Full

9 UK O2 SMS

10 So. Korea SKT Cyworld Mobile

2. Why 4G?

Mobile TV Technology OptionsUnicast 3G - MachBlue by Orange (UK)Bcast OFDM - Vcast by Verizon (US)Bcast DVB-H - KT, SKT (SK)


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Projected Capacity Needs - Developed Market (EU)2. Why 4G?


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A Perspective: Wireline Demand

Source: The FTTH Council

2. Why 4G?


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The Three Horses of

3G

Organization Technology

Strength Weakness

Migration4G Prospects

3GPPUMTS -

WCDMAVoice Data

LTE

(2010)Strong

3GPP2

cdma2000-

CDMA

Voice DataUMB

(2009)Weak

IEEEWiMAX -

OFDMAData Voice

802.16m(2009)

Mixed

3. The Global Dynamic


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The Four Horses of 4G

SupplierPortfolio 4G Prospects

LTE UMB WiMAX+ APAC CALA EMEA NA

Alcatel-Lucent

Ericsson x x

Nokia-Siemens

x

Nortel x

Motorola x x ? ? APAC Asia Pacific [SKT, NTT, Vodafone]CALA Central and Latin America [Telefonica]EMEA Europe, Middle East, Africa [Vodafone, DT, Telefonica]NA North America [Sprint, Verizon and AT&T] - Strong, - Medium, - Weak



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Global Mobile Penetration Rates

2006

2012

Markets Saturated by/before 2012 Room to Grow Beyond 2012

, July 2007

81% of the 1.4B new additionswill be pre-paid with ARPUs of$6 (vs post-paid ARPU of $37),using GSM (2G) for voice,in effect, delaying bandwidthand service deployments tothese markets.



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Major Mobile Operators - Europe

Operatorotal ubs

(M)

3 e ices

(M)

ireli e ireless Major Markets

1 elefo ica+O2 217 ' ' Spa ta a A A pe

2 af e 200 18 5 ' S, FR, Ge ma , India+22 ot e

3 112 ' ' Ge many, Ot e EU

4 FT+Orange 102 9 ' ' France, UK Se era ot er

5 Te iaSonera 82 ' ' ordic, Ba tic, CIS, Turkey,

6 Te enor 80 ' ' orway, Sweden, Finland, RU +7 ot er7 T 39 ' ' ortugal +8 ot er

8 TelecomAustria 11 ' ' Austria

9 3( ) 10 10 x ' UK+10 ot ermkts

10 TDC 10 ' ' Denmark11 KPN 9 ' ' Net erlands, Belgium, Germany

12 Bouygues SA 9 x ' France

13 Swisscom 5 ' ' Swit erland

14 Belgacom 4 4 ' ' Belgium



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Data Service Revenues: A Case Study (Sprint)

Sprints WiMAX Strategy (XOHM) ofOpen Access creates new openings in their walled garden.

, Oct2007

Google is close to a deal with Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel over its new mobilephone. An agreement is likely to reached wi thin two weeks for launch of a Google phonein the middle of 2008. The central feature of the Google handset will be an openoperating system that will encourage developers to create apps beyond search,interactive communications and social networking.(Wall Street Journal Oct 31, 2007)

As an open access operator, challenges

related to security, privacy and billing arecompounded due to complexity of multiplevirtual providers. Billing options to include flat(advanced payment) or transaction based.

By 2012, sales of unsubsidized devices(non-laptop) are expected to contributesignificantly to the top line. These includehandsets, cameras, printers, Internet tablets,

PDAs, gaming and video devices.

Elephant in the Room: How to compensate for ICI?(i.e., Network Roaming Agreements*)

Mechanisms (e.g., IPSphere) not likely to be in place till 09-10* Sprint exited agreement with Clearwire partly due to lack of a viable ICI

(Reuters, 11/9/07).

Key Requisite: Open Access


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Accelerators of the 4G Timeline

Business Need and Opportunity

Technology Pull

Rate of Innovation

Disruptive Technologies

Standardization

New Revenue Opportunities

Developments in the Wireline World

4. The 4G Timeline

700 MHz may prove to be the most significant accelerator of 4G


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3G Reaching Maturity and Profitability Development and Deployment of IMS and Multi-service

Interoperable Networking Validation of Radio Technologies Cost and Availability of Spectrum Migration Cost

Migrating CDMA2000 to 1xEVDOrA (Verizon Wireless) $6Bover 3 years for a nationwide footprint

Viable Business Model for Service Offering Backhaul Capacity Issues Related to Content Ownership

Concurrent Development of the Ecosystem

What Can Give 4G a Pause?

4. The 4G Timeline


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Beneficiaries of 3G/4G Timeline

Mobile Operators (basic service revenue) Top 4 - VZW AT&T T-Mobile SprintNextel

Operators providing service to other verticals e.g., healthcare, automotive, retail, etc.

Vendors providing product related service to operators ERIC, ALU, CSCO, TLAB, CIEN, ADC, JNPR, NSN

Vendors providing professional services to operators Application SW providers mostly startups Webcos: GOOG, YHOO, MSFT, Adobe Security appliance makers mostly small pre-/post-IPO. Quality/measurement tools maker and user companies

Agilant, Anritsu, small private cos


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Summary

4G Definition Informal

4G at Hype Stage

2012-15 Likely Deployment Near-term Investment Opportunities

3G Application Developers

Spectrum Lessees

Selected Equipment Vendors

Global Operators


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Backup Slides


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Competitive Access Technologies

WLAN802.11n

Cellular3G

Cellular3.9G

cdma2000

Cellular3.9G

UMTS

802.16e/WiMAX

1 Technology OFDM/TDM T/F/CDMA CDMA/OFDMA

OFDMA/FDMA

OFDMA/OFDMA

2 Spectrum Unlicensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed

3 BW Allocn Fixed Semi-fixed Flexible Flexible Flexible

4 Data rate* 70Mbps 1Mbps 70Mbps 40Mbps 70Mbps

5 Distance 50 M 2-5 KM 2-5 KM 2-5 KM 2-5 KM

6 Voice VoIP TDM CDMA/VoIP TDM/VoIP VoIP

7 Video Streaming,HD

Streaming Streaming,HD

Streaming,HD

Streaming,HD

8 Security MAC/IP IP IP IP MAC/IP

9 QoS MAC TDM/ATM MAC MAC MAC

10 Mobility Portable Mobile Mobile Mobile Mobile

11 Cost (incr) Low Medium High High Medium

*Typicalofthe severalpossible Boldfont= strengthofthe technology


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WCDMA (3GPP) Performance Roadmap

Latency (ms)

Capacity DL(Mbps/5 MHz)

Peak DL

(Mbps/5 MHz)Capacity UL(Mbps/5 MHz)

Peak UL(Mbps/5 MHz)

100

2.5

4.3

1

0.384

75

2.5 (4-5)

14

1-2

~2

30-50

4-5

14

~2

4-6

10-15 10

4-5* 8-10

14* 25

~2 4-5

4-6 12.5

HSDPA

Enh UL HSDPA Ph2 (GRAKE)

MBMS

Enh UL Ph2

3G LTE

150

1

0.384

1

0.064

2004 2005

R99

2006 2007-8 2009

WCDMA OFDM(Targets)

OFDM on20 MHzgives 100/ 50 Mbpsin DL / UL

resp. 2x2ant.ennaassumedfor the DL

* With 2x2 MIMO in DLthese numbers will behigher


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Cdma2000

Roadmap(Source: CDG)


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Gerson Lehrman Group Contacts

Nick GoodmanVice PresidentGerson Lehrman Group850 Third Avenue, 9th FloorNew York, NY [email protected]

Christine RuaneSenior Product ManagerGerson Lehrman Group850 Third Avenue, 9th FloorNew York, NY [email protected]


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IMPORTANT GLG INSTITUTE DISCLAIMER By making contact with this/these CouncilMembers and participating in this event, you specifically acknowledge, understand and agreethat you must not seek out material non-public or confidential information from Council Members.You understand and agree that the information and material provided by Council Members isprovided for your own insight and educational purposes and may not be redistributed ordisplayed in any form without the prior written consent of Gerson Lehrman Group. You agree tokeep the material provided by Council Members for this event and the business information ofGerson Lehrman Group, including information about Council Members, confidential until suchinformation becomes known to the public generally and except to the extent that disclosure maybe required by law, regulation or legal process. You must respect any agreements they mayhave and understand the Council Members may be constrained by obligations or agreements intheir ability to consult on certain topics and answer certain questions. Please note that CouncilMembers do not provide investment advice, nor do they provide professional opinions. CouncilMembers who are lawyers do not provide legal advice and no attorney-client relationship isestablished from their participation in this project.

You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group does not screen and is notresponsible for the content of materials produced by Council Members. You understand andagree that you will not hold Council Members or Gerson Lehrman Group liable for the accuracyor completeness of the information provided to you by the Council Members. You acknowledgeand agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall have no liability whatsoever arising from yourattendance at the event or the actions or omissions of Council Members including, but notlimited to claims by third parties relating to the actions or omissions of Council Members, andyou agree to release Gerson Lehrman Group from any and all claims for lost profits and liabilitiesthat result from your participation in this event or the information provided by Council Members,regardless of whether or not such liability arises is based in tort, contract, strict liability orotherwise. You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall not be liable for anyincidental, consequential, punitive or special damages, or any other indirect damages, even ifadvised of the possibility of such damages arising from your attendance at the event or use ofthe information provided at this event.

Pradeep Samudra - GLGi 4G Update 12.18.07 com

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