Chapter 5 experience in known market ... • Four commonly used market knowledge ... marketing...

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Chapter 5

指導老師：林建信教授

學生： 004 張瑞釗

006 林東榮

106.3.28 011 李靜


This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 5-2

• Top-down approach

• A central person takes responsibility for forecasting and prepares an overall forecast

• Bottom-up approach

• Common in decentralized firms

• Each part of the firm prepares its own sales forecast



• Advantages

• Useful in established firms for established products

• Results in a more accurate forecast

• Limitations

• Assumes the future will look very like the past

• When product or market characteristics change:

• Statistical models used without adequate judgment may not keep pace



• Advantage

• Based on what people actually do

• Limitation

• Not possible for new-to-the-world products



• Advantage

• Methods can be done with various kinds of respondents and increasingly done online



• Limitations

• What people say is not always what they do

• People may not be knowledgeable when asked their opinion

• What people imagine about a product concept in a survey:

• May not be what is actually delivered once the product is launched



• Advantages

• Used for new product forecasting where:

• Neither statistical methods nor observations are

possible

• Useful for new-to-the-world high-technology

products



• Limitations

• New product and its pricing are never exactly like

that to which the analogy is drawn

• Market and competitive conditions may vary from

when the analogous product was launched



• Advantage

• Is quite accurate when there is sufficient forecasting experience in known market

• Limitation

• Difficult to defend against evidence based methods



• Done:

• Under controlled experimental conditions

• In live test markets with real advertising and promotion and distribution in stores

• Limitations of test markets

• Expensive to conduct

• Competitors can engage in marketing tactics to mislead the company



• Chain ratios and indices

• Market potential is estimated and multiplied by fractional factors

• Predict the portion of the overall market potential that one firm or product can expect to obtain



• Explains the adoption of an innovative product or service over time among a group of potential buyers

• Useful to managers in predicting the likely adoption rate for:

• New and innovative goods or services



• Attitudinal changes experienced by individuals from:

• The time they first hear about a new product, until they adopt it



• Speed of the process depends on:

• Risk

• Relative advantage

• Relative simplicity

• Compatibility with previously adopted ideas and behavior

• Extent to which its trial can be accomplished on a small-scale basis

• Ease with which the central idea of the new product can be communicated



• Innovators: Venturesome than later adopters

• Receptive to new ideas and have high incomes

• Reduces the risk of a loss arising from an early adoption

• Early adopters: Opinion leaders

• Serve as vital links to members of the early majority group

• Participate more in community organizations than do later adopters



• Early majority: Display less leadership than early adopters

• Active in community affairs

• Do not like to take unnecessary risks

• Want to be sure that a new product will prove successful before they adopt it



• Late majority: Adopt a new product because they are forced to do so for either economic or social reasons

• Laggards: Participate less in community matters than members of the other groups and stubbornly resist change



• Psychological biases

• Common sources of error

• Forecasters are subject to anchoring bias

• Capacity constraints are sometimes misinterpreted as forecasts

• Incentive pay

• Unstated but implicit assumptions can overstate a well-intentioned forecast



• Keys to good forecasting

• Make explicit the assumptions on which the forecast is based

• Use multiple methods



• Four commonly used market knowledge systems

• Internal records systems

• Marketing databases

• Competitive intelligence systems

• Systems to organize client contact



• Intended to address carefully defined marketing problems or opportunities

• Questions to be asked by a critical user of marketing research

• What are the research objectives? Will the data to be collected meet them?



• Are the data sources appropriate? Is secondary data used? Qualitative or quantitative?

• Is the research designed well?

• Are the planned analyses appropriate

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24

Culture is the habit of being pleased with the best and knowing why.

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Chapter 5 experience in known market ... • Four commonly used market knowledge ... marketing...

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