Page 1 Model interoperations: Community models, models as services, and model webs NASA Biodiversity...

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Page 1 Model interoperations: Community models, models as services, and model webs NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting New York 8 May 2009 Gary Geller Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged. National Aeronautics and Space Administration

description

Focus is monitoring  Ecosystems  Species  Genes  Ecosystem services Page 3

Transcript of Page 1 Model interoperations: Community models, models as services, and model webs NASA Biodiversity...

Page 1: Page 1 Model interoperations: Community models, models as services, and model webs NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting New York 8.

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Model interoperations:Community models, models as

services, and model webs

NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team MeetingNew York

8 May 2009

Gary GellerJet Propulsion Laboratory

California Institute of Technology

(c) 2009 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Page 2: Page 1 Model interoperations: Community models, models as services, and model webs NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting New York 8.

GEO Biodiversity Observation Network

Global network…• Of interoperating biodiversity observation

systems Collect, manage, analyze, share data on status of

the world’s biodiversity

Scholes et al., Science 321: 22 August 2008, Toward a Global Biodiversity Observing System Page 2

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Focus is monitoring

Ecosystems Species Genes Ecosystem services

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Primary tasks

1. Integrate existing observation systems2. Coordinate sampling efforts3. Fill in sampling gaps4. Integrate and add analytical/visualization tools5. Combine remote sensing and in situ data

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Concept is all-inclusive Very ambitious Organic and opportunistic Long-term Community-driven and coordinated

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Self assessment

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Concepts published Implementation approach articulated Detailed implementation planning underway

• Ecosystems• Species• Genes• Terrestrial• Marine• Aquatic

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Status

Sound interesting?

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Model interoperations:Community models, models as

services, and model webs

NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team MeetingNew York

8 May 2009

Gary GellerJet Propulsion Laboratory

California Institute of Technology

(c) 2009 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Page 8: Page 1 Model interoperations: Community models, models as services, and model webs NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting New York 8.

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Overview

Ecological questions Greater model integration

• Community modeling• Models as services• Model Web

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General questions

1.What will change?

2.What will be the consequences of those changes?

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Specific examples USFWS: Should pika be listed as threatened / endangered? BCC: What are the ecological and social implications of

complete “build-out” in Boulder according to the existing regional zoning plan?

USNPS: Where should we burn? Will we violate AQ standards in the Central Valley?

NGOs: What areas in Asia should be the focus of conservation efforts to save the tiger and its habitat?

USGEO: What are the consequences of alternative land management practices on biological diversity in the context of climate change?

NEON: How do changes in the availability and distribution of the nation’s water affect ecological systems?

DS: How will the boreal forest shift as temperature and precipitation change at high latitudes? What will be the impacts on animal migration patterns and invasive species?

How will social and economic factors change forest cover

of Peruvian Amazon by 2020?

What effect will various management options have on the

critical values of my park? What do we need to do to restore the landscape of an

overgrazed African ecosystem?

How will climate change and socioeconomic factors affect

infection rates of vector-borne diseases?

How will increased development and forest fragmentation

effect the abundance of a forest-dependent bird species?

What areas in Burma should be targeted to protect the

critically endangered Gurney's Pitta?

How much will sea level rise?

How will water availability be affected, by annual and

seasonal measures? Do we need to build more reservoirs?

How will urban temperatures in SF be changed?

How will fire risk and intensity be affected?

How will snowfall be affected? How will flood risk be affected?

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How many of these questions can be easily answered, or explored, now?

Can a resource manager easily get information on these topics?

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Limiting factors

Science and observations

Isolated models—limited interoperability

Limited sharingLimited access

Cultural barriers are much more limitingthan technical ones

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“The need for community modeling”

More sharing / improved access Less reinvention Facilitates new science Enhances integrated management and decision

support

Adapted from: J Famiglietti et al 2008. CUAHSI’s efforts towards a Community Hydrologic Modeling Platform (CHyMP) in the USA

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Should we encourage more community ecological models?

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Models as services

Service: provision of a product upon request Service Oriented Architecture

ConsumerServiceProvider

Servicerequest

Information

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Models as (web) services

Data provider: Standard method for data sharing• Well-known technology

Data consumer: Improved access• To people• To other models

Not for

all m

odels

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Models as services

GCMsPhysical

oceanography

Anchovypopulation

Biochemical /primary producers

Bluefin tunapopulation

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Models as services

GCMsPhysical

oceanography

Anchovypopulation

Biochemical /primary producers

Bluefin tunapopulation

Model web

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Benefits

More sharing / improved access Less reinvention Facilitates new science Enhances integrated management and decision

support

Greater modeler interaction More users more feedback faster improvement

Web 2.0

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Web 2.0

Web 2.0• Collaboration • Communities• Interactivity, feedback• “Collective intelligence”

Web 3.0?• Semantic Web Model Web

~Community

models

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Summary

Need more model interoperabilityCommunity modelingModels as servicesRoom for Web 2.0Longer term: model web?

Think big, start small, start soon

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