OzEcco Today 2009 Transition to a low carbon economy Energy security….mainly transport Economic...
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OzEcco Today 2009 • Transition to a low carbon economy • Energy security….mainly transport • Economic growth……enough • Infrastructure • Ecological refurbishment • Whole economy resilience • Physical affluence…..enough • National debt
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Transcript of OzEcco Today 2009 Transition to a low carbon economy Energy security….mainly transport Economic...
OzEcco Today 2009• Transition to a low carbon economy
• Energy security….mainly transport• Economic growth……enough• Infrastructure• Ecological refurbishment• Whole economy resilience• Physical affluence…..enough• National debt• Balance of trade
OzEcco Today 2009• Transition to a low carbon economy
• Energy security….mainly transport• Economic growth……enough• Infrastructure• Ecological refurbishment• Whole economy resilience• Physical affluence…..enough• National debt• Balance of trade
Solutions not
Problems
Context for Work circa 1993• Future human population levels • Effect on land/water/air/biodiversity and natural amenity (environmental sectors)
• Humans effect everything….thus the meaning of life
• Search for a science based approach to integration (unpopular….not science)
• Economic ‘equilibrium’ models the norm
• But some ‘policy’ interest and support (until the results started to emerge)
ECONOMICEFFICIENCY
SOCIAL EQUITYENVIRONMENTALQUALITY
BAU
EconomicGrowth
ConservativeDevelopment
PostMaterialism
OzEcco Energy Flows Model
HMC Production & Use
Agriculture & ForestryMining
Services
HousingIndustry
CapitalStock
Industry
IndustrialOutput
Investment inOther SectorsReinvestment
in Industry Materialstandard of
Living
AvailableHMC International
Trade
Sector-specificActivities
+
-
+
++ +
(+)
Australian Stocks and Flows FrameworkHouseholds
ASFF
Demography
Materials & Energy
Land Resources
Water Resources
Air Resources
Balance of Trade Material Resources
Material Conversion
Artefacts /Infrastructure
Lifestyle
Population
Working population
Consumption
Services
Building Space
Transportation
Construction Equipment
Recycling
Processing & Assembly
Power Generation
Agriculture
Forestry
Fisheries
Mining
QUALITATIVEScenarios
+ BOOKS/Conferences
QUANTITATIVEModels
Aggregated & top down
Highly dis-aggregated & bottom up
SEPARATING Values from Data Analysis
OzEcco Energy Flows Model
HMC Production & Use
Agriculture & Forestry
Mining
Services
HousingIndustry
CapitalStock
Industry
IndustrialOutput
Investment inOther SectorsReinvestment
in Industry Materialstandard of
Living
AvailableHMC International
Trade
Sector-specificActivities
+
-
+
++ +
(+)
• Redevelop in Vensim• Fossil electricity • CCS• Renewables• Nuclear• Transport…gas and shale oil• Transport…methanol/DME and
ethanol• Continental land account• Continental water accounting• Detailed forestry sector• Sovereign wealth fund to
control rebound• Aggregate indicators
OzEcco Developments: Aggregated and top-down and also dollar/energy translation
Australian Stocks and Flows Framework
Two Policy Worlds:--Renewable energy--Conventional wisdom
Study Rationale• Oil replacement• Regional enterprise• Refurbish farming systems• Biodiversity augmentation• Salinity control• Carbon neutrality• Vital third landuse adding to
animals and crops• Drought resilient
The Renewables Transition ‘Base Case’ STOCKS
$74,000 billion
Base Case Stocks Accumulated 2006-2051
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
GDP-$billion CO2- tonnesmillion
Capital Stocks-PJ embodied
Future Fund-$ billion
PhysicalAffluence-GJ/capita
29 billion tonnes
Twice today’s level
$1,000 billion
7,200 GJ/capita =
60 msc
90% Shale Oil Scenarios
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicators
Base Case
90% Shale R
90% Shale R+TE
90% Shale IS
90% Shale IS+TE
90% Natural Gas Scenarios
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicators
Base Case
90% Gas
90%Gas + LE
90%Gas + LE/TE
Fossil Oil ReplacersShale
CNG
Biofuel Oil Replacers
90% Ethanol Scenarios
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicators
Base Case
90% Crop
90% Ligno
90% Thermo
90% Methanol Scenarios
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicators
Base Case
90% Meth
90%M +TE
90%M +ZE
90%M+TE/ZE
Ethanol
Methanol/DME
Renewable Electricity Transitioncomposition of electricity delivered
Proportional Source of Electricity Production by Technology Type: 80% Renewable Electricity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Simulation Period
Gig
aw
att
Ho
urs
EPWIN
EPSTH
EPSPV
EPNUC
EPHYD
EPGST
EPGCC
EPFCL
EPCST
EPCCC
EPBIO
EPBCS
Brown C
Black C
Wind
Coal CC
Gas CC
Hydro
Gas T
Solar T
Biomass
Solar PV
Source of Electricity Production in Gigawatt Hours by Technology Type: Base Case
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Simulation Period
Pro
po
rtio
n
EPWIN
EPSTH
EPSPV
EPNUC
EPHYD
EPGST
EPGCC
EPFCL
EPCST
EPCCC
EPBIO
EPBCS
Brown C
Black C
Wind
Gas CCCoal CC
Gas CC
Base Case 80% Renewables
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP
Accum CO2
Physical Affluence
Capital Stocks
Future Fund
80% Renewable Electricity
Base Case
80% Renewable
Renewable Electricity Transition
Best Conventional Transitioncomposition of electricity delivered
Base Case 90% Advanced Generation
Proportional Source of Electricity Production by Technology Type: Best Conventional
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Simulation Period
Gig
aw
att
Ho
urs
EPWIN
EPSTH
EPSPV
EPNUC
EPHYD
EPGST
EPGCC
EPFCL
EPCST
EPCCC
EPBIO
EPBCS
Brown C
Black C
Wind
Coal CC
Gas CC
Hydro
Gas T
Biomass
Fuel Cell
NuclearSource of Electricity Production in Gigawatt Hours by
Technology Type: Base Case
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Simulation Period
Pro
po
rtio
n
EPWIN
EPSTH
EPSPV
EPNUC
EPHYD
EPGST
EPGCC
EPFCL
EPCST
EPCCC
EPBIO
EPBCS
Brown C
Black C
Wind
Gas CCCoal CC
Gas CC
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP
Accum CO2
Physical Affluence
Capital Stocks
Future Fund
90% Advanced Conventional Electricity
Base Case
90% Adv Elect
Best Conventional Transition
Carbon Sequestration and Storage
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP
Accum CO2
Physical Affluence
Capital Stocks
Future Fund
80% CCS in Thermal Coal and Advanced Fossil
Base Case
CCS in Base Case
Advanced Fossil
CCS in Adv Foss
Nuclear with Safeguards
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Accum GDP
Accum CO2
Physical Affluence
Capital Stocks
Future Fund
30 % and 60% Nuclear Power
Base Case
30% Nuclear
60% Nuclear
Full Renewables TransitionLow carbon electricity and transport fuels
Source: Foran… ‘Powerful Choices’ Study
Base Case, Normal Renewables and Low-Growth Renewables
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicator
Mil
lio
ns
Base Case
Renewables
Low Growth
A lowgrowtheconomy
Issues: Philosophical, Technical and Computational
• Macro/macro scales• Efficiency, rebound, sovereign wealth funds
• Growth, no-growth, development• Globalised trade and balance of payments (is there no end to it?)
• Communication….specific technical issues e.g. CCS
• Communication….the big ideas
