Overview of CalLite -Overview of CalLite -

Central Valley Water Central Valley Water Management Screening Management Screening

ModelModel

Sushil Arora, Ph.D., P.E.Sushil Arora, Ph.D., P.E.

Bay-Delta Office, DWRBay-Delta Office, DWRCalLite WorkshopCalLite Workshop

July 7, 2008July 7, 2008

What is CalLite What is CalLite Model ?Model ?

Incr

easi

ng C

ompl

exity

Decreasing E

ase of Use/A

ccessibility

System dynamics Screening models

Physical system models

Primary processesOperations models

Empirical models“Box”/concept models

Expert use only

- Open to use by non-experts- Allows exploration

- Interactive and intertwined with decision process

CALSIM (hydrology/system

operations)

DSM2(1-D

hydrodynamics/water quality)

ANN(flow-salintyneural nets)

IWFM(regional

groundwater)

X2(aq. species abundance)

CalLite

unTrim3D(3-D hydrodynamics)

Incr

easi

ng C

ompl

exity

Decreasing E

ase of Use/A

ccessibility

System dynamics Screening models

Physical system models

Primary processesOperations models

Empirical models“Box”/concept models

Expert use only

- Open to use by non-experts- Allows exploration

- Interactive and intertwined with decision process

CALSIM (hydrology/system

operations)

DSM2(1-D

hydrodynamics/water quality)

ANN(flow-salintyneural nets)

IWFM(regional

groundwater)

X2(aq. species abundance)

CalLite

unTrim3D(3-D hydrodynamics)

What is CalLite What is CalLite Model ?Model ?

A user-friendly, interactive, rapid, A user-friendly, interactive, rapid, easy-to-understand and use modeleasy-to-understand and use model

Represents a simplified CVP and SWP Represents a simplified CVP and SWP system while maintaining its core system while maintaining its core elements including COA elements including COA

A Screening tool for “what-if” A Screening tool for “what-if” scenarios for SWP/CVP Planning & scenarios for SWP/CVP Planning & Management optionsManagement options

Accurate within 5 percent of CalSim; Accurate within 5 percent of CalSim; run time less than 5 minutesrun time less than 5 minutes

What is CalLite What is CalLite Model ?Model ?

Maintains hydrologic, operational and Maintains hydrologic, operational and institutional integrity as represented in institutional integrity as represented in CALSIMCALSIM

Simulation Period is 82 years (1921-Simulation Period is 82 years (1921-2003); Simulation Time Step is 2003); Simulation Time Step is MONTHLYMONTHLY

Delta flow-salinity relationship (ANN Delta flow-salinity relationship (ANN module) is identical to CALSIMmodule) is identical to CALSIM

Model development is powered by Model development is powered by commercial proprietary software, commercial proprietary software, GoldSimGoldSim

CalSim/CalLite CalSim/CalLite Model Features Model Features ComparisonComparison

CalSimCalSim Dynamic Ground-Dynamic Ground-

Stream Water Stream Water InteractionInteraction

Contractor Level Contractor Level Operations DetailOperations Detail

CVPIA (b)(2) and CVPIA (b)(2) and EWA Regulatory EWA Regulatory OperationsOperations

Sac. Basin Sac. Basin Dynamically OperatedDynamically Operated

30 minute Run-Time 30 minute Run-Time for One stepfor One step

CalLiteCalLite Fixed Ground-Fixed Ground-

Stream Water Stream Water InteractionInteraction

Lumped Contractor Lumped Contractor Operations DetailOperations Detail

Single Regulatory Single Regulatory EnvironmentEnvironment

Sac Basin pre-Sac Basin pre-ProcessedProcessed

Less than 5 minute Less than 5 minute run-timerun-time

Key Assumptions for Key Assumptions for CalSim/CalLite CalSim/CalLite Model Comparison Model Comparison StudiesStudies

Hydrology: 2005 Level-of-Hydrology: 2005 Level-of-DevelopmentDevelopment

Facilities: ExistingFacilities: Existing SWP and CVP Demands at current SWP and CVP Demands at current

levellevel All current system regulatory All current system regulatory

requirements including D-1641 in the requirements including D-1641 in the DeltaDelta

Study Period: 1922 – 2003Study Period: 1922 – 2003

Results Results ComparisonComparison

CalLite CALSIM Diff % Diff CalLite CALSIM Diff % Diff CalLite CALSIM Diff % DiffTrinity R blw Lewiston 692 707 -15 -2% 411 411 0 0% 472 472 0 0%Trinity Export 549 539 10 2% 334 356 -22 -6% 427 448 -21 -5%Clear Cr blw Whiskeytown 42 45 -3 -6% 33 33 0 0% 38 38 0 0%Sacramento R @ Keswick 6296 6285 10 0% 3951 4024 -73 -2% 4598 4639 -41 -1%Sacramento R @ Wilkins Slough 6694 6685 10 0% 3974 4032 -58 -1% 4898 4946 -49 -1%Feather R blw Thermalito 3167 3187 -20 -1% 1580 1637 -57 -4% 1627 1658 -31 -2%American R blw Nimbus 2520 2522 -2 0% 1363 1328 35 3% 1222 1199 23 2%

Delta Inflow 21969 21959 10 0% 9914 9934 -21 0% 10755 10745 11 0%Sacramento R @ Hood 16234 16226 8 0% 8221 8242 -21 0% 9385 9374 11 0%

Yolo Bypass 1928 1926 2 0% 110 110 0 0% 130 130 0 0%Mokelumne R 666 666 0 0% 202 202 0 0% 140 140 0 0%

San Joaquin R d/s Calaveras 3141 3141 0 0% 1381 1381 0 0% 1100 1100 0 0%Delta Outflow 14911 14849 61 0% 5044 5100 -56 -1% 5537 5624 -87 -2%

Required 5581 5575 6 0% 4090 4092 -2 0% 3912 4126 -214 -5%Surplus

Delta Diversions 5977 6038 -60 -1% 3610 3561 49 1% 3886 3765 121 3%Banks SWP 3309 3384 -75 -2% 1899 1943 -44 -2% 1947 1959 -12 -1%Banks CVP 0 78 -78 -100% 0 18 -18 -100% 0 31 -31 -100%

Tracy 2668 2576 92 4% 1711 1618 93 6% 1939 1806 133 7%

SWP SOD Deliveries 3267 3233 34 1% 1867 1847 20 1% 1929 1874 55 3%Table A 2729 2726 3 0% 1637 1527 110 7% 1722 1691 31 2%

Article 21 245 216 29 13% 134 223 -89 -40% 30 5 25 546%Article 56 292 290 2 1% 96 97 -1 -1% 177 179 -1 -1%

CVP SOD Deliveries 2712 2770 -58 -2% 1647 1604 42 3% 1942 1889 52 3%

1922-2003 1929-1934 1987-1992

CalLite Innovative CalLite Innovative Features Features

Interactive interface to setup model runInteractive interface to setup model run Interactive controls for inputInteractive controls for input Features for output displayFeatures for output display Features for scenario managerFeatures for scenario manager

Delta requirement and facility controlDelta requirement and facility control Delta Cross Channel – No reg., D1641, User definedDelta Cross Channel – No reg., D1641, User defined Min. NDO – No reg., D1641, User definedMin. NDO – No reg., D1641, User defined Old & Middle River flows, X2, Etc.Old & Middle River flows, X2, Etc.

Future water management optionsFuture water management options North of Delta Off stream StorageNorth of Delta Off stream Storage Shasta EnlargementShasta Enlargement Isolated FacilityIsolated Facility Etc.Etc.

CalLite Innovative CalLite Innovative Features Features

Demand management optionsDemand management options SWP demand – Current, Future, User definedSWP demand – Current, Future, User defined CVP demand – Full Contract, User-definedCVP demand – Full Contract, User-defined

Climate change and hydrologic Climate change and hydrologic uncertaintyuncertainty

Different emission and model scenariosDifferent emission and model scenarios Sea level rise optionsSea level rise options Monte-Carlo re-sampling of observed hydrology Monte-Carlo re-sampling of observed hydrology Paleoclimate mapping of hydrology Paleoclimate mapping of hydrology

Forecast-based delivery allocation Forecast-based delivery allocation decision-makingdecision-making

CalLite Model CalLite Model LimitationsLimitations

Monthly time stepMonthly time step Simplified Sacramento Valley Simplified Sacramento Valley

representation representation San Joaquin Valley currently not modeledSan Joaquin Valley currently not modeled Calif. Aqueduct and DMC not modeledCalif. Aqueduct and DMC not modeled D1641 regulatory requirements onlyD1641 regulatory requirements only CVP Cross Valley Canal currently not CVP Cross Valley Canal currently not

modeledmodeled Recommended for use in “with” and Recommended for use in “with” and

”without” project scenarios”without” project scenarios

Future Work Future Work

Incorporate Climate Change Scenarios Incorporate Climate Change Scenarios including Sea Level Rise including Sea Level Rise

Apply model to Agency Planning Apply model to Agency Planning Programs as requested by program Programs as requested by program managersmanagers

Prepare model developer Prepare model developer documentationdocumentation

Incorporate San Joaquin River system Incorporate San Joaquin River system in coordination with Reclamationin coordination with Reclamation