Overseas Filipino Workers’ - World...
Transcript of Overseas Filipino Workers’ - World...
Overseas Filipino Workers’
Remittances :Concepts and Measurement
1
Daisy M. Cabral
Department of Economic Statistics
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Outline of Presentation
OFW REMITTANCES
A. Contribution of Remittances to the Economy Trends
B. Profile of Remitters Stock Deployment
C. Statistical Measurement of Remittances BOP component (Income and Current Transfer) Estimation Method Data Sources
2
Level
(in US$ Bil) 1/
Growth
Rate
(%)
Remittances as % of:
GDP XGS FDI GIR DSB
2002 6.89 14.2 9.0 18.2 446.6 42.1 88.7
2003 7.58 10.1 9.5 19.6 1,543.4 44.4 95.3
2004 8.55 12.8 9.9 20.0 1,242.7 51.7 118.5
2005 10.69 25.0 10.8 23.9 576.5 57.8 142.2
2006 12.76 19.4 10.9 24.7 544.2 55.6 161.5
2007 14.45 13.2 10.0 25.0 493.5 42.8 202.0
2008 16.43 13.7 9.7 27.9 1,080.7 43.7 220.6
(J-Nov)
2009 4.06
(Jan-Mar)
2.7 - 26.9
(Jan)
16,162.5
(Jan-
Feb)
10.4
(Jan-
Mar)
235.8
(Jan)
1/ Cash remittances coursed through the banks
VALUE OF REMITTANCES
5
*/ Cash Remittances coursed through banks Source: BSP6
7.6
10.7
4.1
8.6
12.814.5
16.4
6.9
0
2
46
8
10
12
1416
18
20
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Jan-
Mar
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Growt h Rat e (RHS)
OF Remittances */Levels (US$ million)
Jan-Mar
Growth Rate
(%)
2007 2008 2008 2009 2008 2009
Remittances 14,450 16,427 3,950 4,057 13.2 2.7
By Worker:
Sea-based 2,236 3,035 759 801 42.2 5.5
Land-based 12,214 13,392 3,192 3,256 8.0 2.0
By Country:
Asia 1,543 1,884 455 520 14.4 14.3
Americas 8,244 9,213 2,110 2,104 12.1 -0.3
Oceania 122 149 38 38 41.0 -1.1
Europe 2,352 2,659 731 758 20.1 3.7
Mid East 2,172 2,503 614 633 8.0 3.1
Africa 16 18 2 4 -56.5 123.4
Others 1 1 0 0 21.8 -72.8
OF remittances sustain growth
STOCK of OFWsin million
Source: Commission on Filipinos Overseas, DFA 8
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5
5.1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Stock Growth Rate
Source: Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA) 9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996 2006 2007 2008
Professionals Service Production Others
Skills Diversification
Geographical diversification
Note: Flow data1/ Flow of OFWs during the year
Source: Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA) 10
0
500
1000
1500
OFW Deployment (in
thous)
837 842 868 892 868 934 989 1063 10781377
99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Americas
4%
Others
3%
Europe
6%
Asia
27%
Middle
East
60%
Modes of Money Transfer
Banks
Non-Banks (e.g., door-to-door services
stores, money transfer operators, etc.)
Others (e.g, brought home by workers or
padala)
Remittances as BOP Component
Income Account (under Compensation of employees)
include transactions of OFWs who are working forless than one year in the host economy and areclassified as resident OFWs (sea-based andperforming artists).
Current Transfer Account (under Workers’ remittances)
include transactions of OFWs who are working forone year or more in the host economy and areclassified as non-resident OFWs (all land-basedworkers except performing artists).
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Cash Remittances (coursed through banks)
Estimation of Remittances in the BOP
Gross compensation of resident OFWs
(sea-based and performing artists)
(under Income Account) =
stock of resident OFWs * average
salary
(Multiplied by the raising factor)
Total Cash Remittances
(coursed through banks and informal channels )
Non-resident OFWs’ Remittances (land-
based workers excluding performing
artists)
(under Current Transfers Account) =
Total cash remittances less cash
remittance of resident OFWs (Residual)
Stock of OFWs
Monthly updating based on a moving total:
Stock t=1 = Stock t=0
+ number of deployed t=1
- number of workers with finished contract
Compensation of Employees (Income Account)
Seabased workersCE Sea-based = Remittances ÷ 0.80
(Contract requires remittance to beneficiary of 80% of basic salary)
Performing ArtistsCE Performing Artists =
[Stock of workers t=0 x average salary per worker t=0 ]
+
[no. of deployed t=1 x average salary per worker t=1 ]
–
[no. of workers with finished contract x average salary
per worker prevailing at time of their employment]
Workers’ Remittances (Current Transfers)
Residual of total remittances in cash after
deducting implied remittances of resident
OFWs
Sources of Data
Cash remittances: Bank reports
Undercoverage ratio: Survey of Overseas Filipinos
Remittances in kind: Survey of Overseas Filipinos
Limitations
Includes cash transactions only
Does not indicate purpose of remittance
Small amount transactions are reported in
lumped sum
Does not capture funds sent outside the banking
system
Country of origin may not reflect the real
source of remittance
Survey Of Overseas Filipinos (SOF)
The SOF is a nationwide survey that
seeks to gather information on Filipino
citizens who left for abroad during the
last five years.
A rider survey to the 3rd quarter round of
the Labor Force Survey
Limitations
The SOF does not ask for the total
salary received by the OFWs
The sampling design is not intended
solely for OFWs
Statistical Issues
Need to harmonize definition of residence with the SNA.
Present system of monitoring headcount of migrant workers
has limitations:
Difficulty of monitoring those with no valid work
documents/those counted as tourists upon departure.
Upward bias in headcount due to: mobility of workers in
landlock countries; returning workers with unexpired work
contract not covered in estimation; and those frequently
on vacation.
Need to measure the expenditures of Filipino tourists abroad
Future Direction
Strengthen current system of monitoring headcount of
migrant workers
Expand collaborative effort with the POEA to disaggregate
OFW database, particularly on:
monthly salary by skill
data on deployment of re-hires
Improve sampling design of SOF