Why Simulation Exercises are Fundamental to Developing Crisis

Capabilities

Edward P. Borodzicz Portsmouth University

We live in interesting times

• Black swans • Systemic failure • Population growth • Human Irrationality • Complexity • Lean systems • Changing ways of life • Expectations

Problems with understanding Risk and Failure

• Low frequency high impact (black swans!)

• Ethical issues

• Complexity

• You can never step in the same river twice

Problems with learning from failure

• Most plans too specific • Simulation designer learns more than the learning target

• Tests never engage the informal system

• Conditioned behaviour in a crisis is dangerous

• The plan may be the problem!

What we know we need?

• Food

• Water

• Shelter

• Medicine

We forget we need

• Media (educating/informing the public)

• Socio-Political co-operation

• Ownership and control

• Scenario mapping

• Endurance

Aristotle

“the one thing we can expect is the unexpected”

Fidelity

• Structural • Psychological • High and low level Fidelity • Theoretical Underpinning • Surprise

Evaluation

• Difficult to establish • Post exercise modelling • Learning from reflective practise • Who is the learning target? • Debriefing

Evaluation

• Apparent validity • Positive and Negative learning • Learn from success not failure

• Exercising culture

The Crisis Training Dilemma • Simulations offer the only practical means of training • Difficult to evaluate in the same way as other training

simulations • The fact that you can not measure it is indicative that you

are really simulating crisis • Both outcomes and management teams will need to vary

The Crisis Training Dilemma

• Crisis should be viewed differently to contingencies (emergencies) and

disaster • Structured militaristic models are often inappropriate • Managing crisis can often mean changing the very team appointed to

manage it! • Crisis is both a threat and opportunity! • While it may be possible to compare good and bad decisions with

hindsight it is more difficult to gauge these in terms of right or wrong.

Effective Crisis Simulations

• Need to recreate the experience of crisis • External simplicity causes internal complexity • Debrief is likely to be difficult if not painful. • This may cause a sales/ethics dilemma for

consultants! • Clients may not like the product

Some tips for good simulation practice

• First, simulations should display an external simplicity which masks their internal complexity.

• Second, games should have some theoretical underpinning. Simulations should be designed with some clear purpose.

• Third, games should contain 'an element of surprise'.

• Fourth, the social structure of the group of players may conflict too strongly with the desired power structure in the game.

Some tips for good simulation practice

• Fifth, in management training, 'verisimilitude' is valued more highly than realism.

• Seventh, games are culture sensitive.

• Eighth, all simulation games will display an emotional impact.