Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract...

23
December, 2011

Transcript of Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract...

Page 1: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

December, 2011

Page 2: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

Agenda

2

Chilean electricity sector

overview

Company overview

Financial profile

Page 3: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

General Highlights

SING Close to 100% of installed capacity based on coal, diesel and gas (including LNG). No exposure to hydrology

Unregulated clients (mainly mining co’s) represent over 90% of total demand

Growth could be slower in near term: Large investments in green-field copper projects take time to structure

Exposure to mining sector growth

Chile is a global, low-cost copper producer

Low correlation between copper prices and SING demand for electricity

Attractive industry

Mature, 100% privatized market

Stable, investor friendly regulatory framework

Increasingly demanding environmental requirements and public opposition to generation projects

Strong industry growth prospects

Installed capacity

AES Gener: 1,032 MW. Has an additional 416MW capacity in the gas turbine of its 643MW CCGT in Salta, Argentina, which is currently unavailable for dispatch to the SING

ENDESA: 963 MW. 182MW from 100% Endesa-owned Celta, and 781MW from Gas Atacama CCGTs (50% Endesa/50% Southern Cross)

ECL: 2,126 MW of which 53% is coal, 32% is gas/diesel and 15% is fuel oil/diesel

SING

SIC

Aysén and Magallanes

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0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010³

SING copper production (kt) SING demand (GWh)

1,5

1,8

1,4 1,4

1,0 1,0

1,1

0,9 0,9 1,0

1,5

1,8

3,2 3,2

2,9

2,3

3,3

17 18 22 20

14

19

30 26 26

31

41

57

67

72

100

62

78

Exposure to mining sector growth ∎ Chile is a global, low-cost copper producer ∎ Low correlation between copper prices and SING demand for electricity.

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SING copper production (kt), SING Generation (GWh) and commodity prices (US$/lb, bbl)

Source: Cochilco, CNE, Bloomberg ¹ Measured as the standard deviation of the annual changes; ² Calculated as the correlation of the annual changes; ³ Annualized September 2010 data

kt GWh

Volatility¹ Correl. with

energy output²

Copper Production 11.2% 0.87

Copper Price 28.2% (0.40)

Annual average copper price (US$/lb) Annual average WTI price (US$/bbl)

Page 5: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

US$ 0

US$ 50

US$ 100

US$ 150

US$ 200

US$ 250

US$ 300

US$ 350

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil

Hydro Spot Contract average¹

SING: installed capacity and generation mix

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Gross installed capacity by technology - 2011 (MW)

Source: CNE, CDEC ¹Average of contracted energy prices as published by the CNE 2Gas restrictions started in 2004, but were more strictly enforced starting in 2007

Monthly generation (GWh) and energy prices (US$/MWh)

GWh

US$/MWh

Gas restrictions from Argentina²

Source: CDEC-SING (1) AES Gener has an additional 416MW of capacity from the gas turbine in its

643MW CCGT in Salta, Argentina, which is currently unavailable for dispatch to the SING.

(2) Includes 182MW from 100% Endesa-owned Celta, and 781MW from Gas Atacama CCGTs (50% Endesa/50% Southern Cross). (3) LNG supply arrangement between mining companies, GNL Mejillones, E.CL, and

Gas Atacama in place from 05-2010 through 07-2012.

10

781

158 277

330

518

488

531

227

200

250

317

24

21

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

E.CL Endesa AES Gener Other

Diesel + Fuel oil

LNG ST

Nat. Gas-Arg.

LNG + Diesel

New coal

Coal

Hydro

1 2

3

Page 6: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

Agenda

6

Chilean electricity sector overview

Company overview

Financial profile

Page 7: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

37%

32%

15%

0%

16%

Coal

Gas/Diesel

Diesel & F.O.

Hydro

New Coal

44%

38%

18% 1%

CT Hornitos2 (165MW)

Tocopilla port

CT Andina2 (165MW)

TE Mejillones (592MW)

Diesel Arica (14MW)

Diesel Iquique (43MW)

Chapiquiña (10MW)

Mantos Blancos1 (29MW)

C. Tamaya (104MW)

TE Tocopilla (1,004MW)

1 Owned by a mining company but operated by ECL; ² Commercial operations commenced in 2011.

2,126 MW 2011 Gas transmission and

distribution operations

1,796 MW 2010

Collahuasi

Chuquicamata

Escondida

7

El Abra

Gaby

Largest electricity generator in Chile’s mining dominated northern grid (~ 50% market share)

Installed capacity E.CL assets

Coal Diesel/derivatives Natural Gas Hydro

Technology

Norandino pipeline to Argentina (Salta region)

2,449 kms of high voltage transmission

lines

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New ownership structure

1 Considers the 0.7% equity reduction due to retirement of treasury stock acquired by E.CL from shareholders that exercised their dissenter’s rights in relation to the December 2009 merger.

² 60% owned by E.CL, with the remaining 40% owned by Inversiones Punta de Rieles (Antofagasta Railway PLC).

Chilean Pension

Funds

52.77% 1

CTH²

(165 MW) Distrinor

Electroandina

(1,105 MW)

CTA

(165 MW)

GNAA

(4.5mm m³/day)

GNAC

(4.5mm m³/day)

Electricity generation Gas distribution Gas transportation

(691 MW)

Other Chilean

Institutional

Investors

Foreign

Institutional

Investors

Other

20.70% 12,18% 12.53% 1.82%

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Long-term contracts with creditworthy customers

¹ Average demand based on 2010 energy consumption except for (a) Esperanza (Antofagasta plc) estimated using an 85% load factor over 150MW of contracted capacity and (b) Emel, calculated using average contracted energy over the life of the contract

² Contract with Esperanza (started in 2011) and Emel (starting in 2012)

Codelco (A+)

Freeport-MM

(BBB) Barrick (A-)

BHP Billiton

SQM Anglo

American

Xstrata

(BBB)

Other Antofagasta plc

Emel

(BBB)

0

50

100

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350

400

450

500

0,0 3,0 6,0 9,0 12,0 15,0 18,0

Avera

ge d

em

and (

MW

)

Remaining life of contracts (years)

Average demand¹ (MW) and remaining life (years) of current contracts

● Current contracts ● Committed contracts²

Contracts average remaining life of 10

years

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Contracts pass-through main costs

E.CL’s leading position and the system’s growing energy requirements has allowed E.CL to include attractive pass-through clauses in most of its contracts significantly reducing its gross margin volatility

Long-term power Purchase Agreements (“PPAs”) indexed to coal, LNG, fuel oil n°6, CPI and SING marginal cost

PPA indexation matches E.CL’s generation capacity

Pass through of PPA risks (based on contracted energy and capacity)

99%

67%

100%

65%

39%

86%

1%

33% 35%

61%

14%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Fuel Maintenance NCREs RM-39 Changes in law Monthly indexation

Pass through Exposure

Source: E.CL

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Long- term contracts , reducing exposure to the volatility of spot market

prices

Tariffs indexed to fuel prices to mitigate the risk of potential cost

increases.

Definition of optimal level of contractual obligations, taking into account

our generation capacity by type of fuel.

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Driver’s of E-CL ´s commercial policy

Page 12: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

Investment highlights: Exposure to mining sector growth

Current challenges:

Growth could be slower in near term: Large investments in green-field copper projects take time to structure;

Significant electricity demand growth expected for 2015/2016 will require new capacity (and/or use of existing CCGTs) for at least 800MW:

Quadra FNX’s Sierra Gorda; Teck’s Quebrada Blanca; Collahuasi’s Phases I & II.

Action / Effects:

Ongoing development of new 375MW coal plant and other projects: Subject to sign PPA for at least 50%

Capitalize on near-term growth: 135MW of new demand from Minera Esperanza starting 2011; 200MW under EMEL contract starting 2012.

Potential future mining projects in the SING

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Company Proyect Capacity Demand-

MW

Full Capacity-

yr

Antofagasta Minerals Esperanza 130MW Apr-2011

Antofagasta Minerals Antucoya 45MW 2014

Codelco Ministro Hales 80MW 2015

BHP Escondida OGP 80MW 2015

Collahuasi Collahuasi expansion Phase I-II

50-170MW 2015-2018

Quadra FNX Mining Sierra Gorda 190MW 2015

Teck Quebrada Blanca Hip.

210MW 2016

International PBX Ventures

Copaquire 80MW 2017

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Investment highlights: Attractive expansion plan

790

2.146

330

651

375

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Current coal and hydro

capacity

CTA/CTH LNG Mejillones Expected base load

capacity

330 MW of coal base generation in 2011

Approx. 200MW commited LNG capacity to supply EMEL, starting 2012; Availability to commit remainder gas capacity at LNG market price beyond 2012.

Environmental approval for 2 x 375MW coal fired power plant in Mejillones + a port facility

Current and expected base capacity (MW)

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Central Termoeléctrica Andina (“CTA”) Central Termoeléctrica Hornitos (“CTH”)

96%

US$ 876 mm

4%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Invested as of June-11 Pending Total

CTA and CTH Capex breakdown (USD m, %)

Characteristics

Gross capacity 165 MW

Location Mejillones

Total capex (inc.

contingencies) US$496mm

COD July 15, 2011

Contract

Codelco: 150MW / 21

years

Ownership 100%

Characteristics

Gross capacity 165 MW

Location Mejillones

Total capex (inc.

contingencies) US$380mm

COD Aug 5, 2011

Contract

Esperanza: 150MW / 15

years

Ownership 60%

New plants during 2011…already in commercial operations

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Page 16: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

Agenda

16

Chilean electricity sector overview

Company overview

Financial profile

Page 17: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

E.CL: Financial Results

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USD millones FY 10 9M10

9M11

Var. 9M%

Revenues 1.121 802 918 14%

Operating income 240 179 158 (11%)

Operating margin 21% 22% 17% -

EBITDA 340 250 242 (3%)

Net income 200 149 104 (30%)

Energy sales (GWh) 7.335 5.454 5.592 3%

2011:

The SING has been characterized throughout 2011 by the generation under test mode and later entry into commercial operation of new efficient coal projects.

Since the end of July, marginal costs in the SING have decreased as a result of two main factors: (i) the decrease in the average electricity generation cost explained by the commercial operation of new and more efficient power plants and (ii) a temporary drop in demand from mining companies in July and August due to labor conflicts and weather factors.

April 2011 CTH’s PPA with Minera Esperanza commenced.

July 15, 2011 CTA started commercial operations. Codelco PPA began.

August 15, 2011 CTH began commercial operations.

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EBITDA (USD million) Sales (USD million)

Costs breakdown (Sept 2011)

Total = USD 918 million Total = USD 760 million

Sales breakdown (Sept 2011)

1053 1121 1237

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2009 2010 sep-11

12 Months

Moving window

358 340 333

0

100

200

300

400

2009 2010 sep-11

92% 5%

50%

23%

10%

17%

Contracted energy and

capacity sales

Spot energy and capacity

sales

3%

Other operating

Revenues Fuel and lubricants

Spot energy and capacity

purchases

Depreciation and

amortization

Other operating

costs

Strong financial profile…

12 Months

Moving window

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2,1x 2,2x 2,2x

,0x

1,0x

2,0x

3,0x

2009 2010 sep-11

1,6x 1,7x 2,0x

,0x

1,0x

2,0x

3,0x

2009 2010 sep-11

23,2x 24,1x

17,0x

,0x

5,0x

10,0x

15,0x

20,0x

25,0x

2009 2010 sep-11

Total debt/EBITDA Net debt/EBITDA

EBITDA/Interest expenses Credit ratings

Investment grade international ratings by S&P and Fitch:

S&P: BBB- (Stable Outlook)

Fitch: BBB- (Stable Outlook)

Investment grade local ratings by Fitch, Feller and ICR

Feller: A (Stable Outlook)

Fitch: A (Stable Outlook)

ICR: A (Stable Outlook)

…coupled with a conservative debt structure

12 Months

Moving window 12 Months

Moving window

12 Months

Moving window

Page 20: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

Contractual Obligations as of September 30, 2011

USD m Total <1

Year 1-3

years 3-5

years

More than

5 years

Bank debt 285.9 5.8 16.6 22.6 240.9

Bonds (144 A/Reg S Notes)

400.0 400.0

Accrued interest 9.0 9.0

Total…………… 694.9 14.8 16.6 22.6 640.9

• Bank debt: IFC/KfW: MUSD 285.9 (CTA project financing)

• Bond: MUSD 400, 10-year, 144-A/Reg.S notes

Payment due by period Debt breakdown by rate type (only principal amounts)

Fixed rate (92%)

Variable rate (8%)

Total Principal = MUSD 685.9

Low Debt

Conservative maturity profile

Access to different sources of financing

Page 21: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

An attractive shareholder return

E.CL Share (as of 12/05/2011):

Market Cap: USD 2,700 bn

Price: CH$ 1,312

Source: Bloomberg

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0,243

0,189

0,15

0,075

0,095

0,024

US$ 0,000

US$ 0,050

US$ 0,100

US$ 0,150

US$ 0,200

US$ 0,250

US$ 0,300 Return and Dividend per share

2009 2010

50% payout ratio: dividend paid in 2011 on account of FY2010 = USD 100 million

30% payout ratio

30% provisional dividend on

account of 1H11 net earnings

USD 25 million

2011E

Note: EPS 2011 anualizado

Page 22: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

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Summary and outlook…

Largest electricity supplier in Chile’s northern grid (SING) with a 52% share of the system’s installed capacity

Long-term contracts: contracts’ average remaining life of 10 years

Largest electricity transmission company in the SING with 2,461 km of

lines (35% of total kms of lines in the SING)

Low Debt, conservative maturity profile and access to different sources of

financing

Commitment with sustainable initiatives

Enhanced shareholder value

Page 23: Nombre del proyecto - Engie · 2018-09-24 · Coal Nat. Gas Diesel + Fuel Oil Hydro Spot Contract average¹ SING: installed capacity and generation mix 5 Gross installed capacity

Esta presentación puede contener previsiones e información relativa a E.CL S.A. (en adelante “E.CL” o la “Compañía”) que reflejan la visión o expectativas actuales de la Compañía y su administración con relación a su plan de negocios. Las previsiones incluyen, sin limitación, cualquier declaración que pueda predecir, pronosticar, indicar o implicar resultados futuros, rendimientos o logros, y que pueda contener palabras tales como “creemos”, “estimamos”, “esperamos”, “el resultado probable”, “el efecto probable”, “prevemos” y cualquier otra palabra o frase con significado similar. Dichas declaraciones pueden contener un número de riesgos significativos, incertidumbres y suposiciones. Advertimos que un número importante de factores pueden provocar que los resultados efectivos difieran materialmente de los planes, objetivos, expectativas, estimaciones e intenciones expresadas en esta presentación. En cualquier caso, ni la Compañía ni sus filiales, directores, ejecutivos, agentes o empleados serán responsables ante terceros (incluidos los inversionistas) por cualquier decisión de inversión o de negocio o cualquier acción adoptada por éstos tomando en cuenta la información y las declaraciones contenidas en esta presentación ni por cualquier daño derivado de ello. La Compañía no tiene la intención de entregar a los potenciales accionistas ningún análisis comparativo de las previsiones y los resultados efectivos. No puede asegurarse que las estimaciones o los supuestos se concretarán ni que los resultados de las operaciones o eventos futuros no diferirán de las estimaciones o supuestos contenidos en esta presentación. E.CL es dueño de esta presentación y de la información en ella contenida, la cual no puede ser reproducida o utilizada, en todo o en parte, sin el consentimiento previo y por escrito de E.CL.