NCM Apresentação fim2 ENG3.ppt [Modo de Compatibilidade]§ão_fim2_ENG3.pdf · 7/10/2010 11 The...
Transcript of NCM Apresentação fim2 ENG3.ppt [Modo de Compatibilidade]§ão_fim2_ENG3.pdf · 7/10/2010 11 The...
7/10/2010
1
Average per capita income evolution – R$ at 2009
0 7,65
630,25
,5 7,95
506,70
514,75
518,96
527,24
483,99
506,53
507,72
477,89
492,45
524,75 572,69
585,50
61 6
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
385,
40
1992
1993
1994*
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000*
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Increase of Average househol Per Capita Income(all sources) – 2001 to 2009
Aumento da renda familiar per capita acumulada - 2001-2009Menos de 10%de 10% a 20%de 20% a 30%de 20% a 30%de 30% a 40%Mais de 40%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
Average Income PNAD X GDP
• The magnitude of the resumption of growth in the 2003‐08 period depends on the database used: GDP2003 08 period depends on the database used: GDP grows 3.78% in per capita per year, slower than the National Survey by Household Sampling (PNAD), 5.26 % per year, also discounting population growth and inflation. According to PNAD 2009 income
i th GDP 1 5% fgrows more once gain than GDP: ‐1.5% of per capita GDP against a positive growth of 2.04% in PNAD.
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Sen´s 1976 Measure= Average * (1 – Gini)Welfare evolution – R$
54
278,81
286,92
260,00
280,00
300,00
0,68
0,41
203,00
204,93
207,36
210,84
196,67
204,79
208,87
199,29
211,21
226,57 250,68
260, 5 2
140 00
160,00
180,00
200,00
220,00
240,00
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
160
160
100,00
120,00
140,00
1992
1993
1994*
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000*
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Gini’s index Evolution
8
0,61
0,62
0,5832
0,6068
0,5994
0,6019
0,6004
0,6001
0,5937
0,5957
0,5886
0,5830
0,5711
0,5682
0,5623
0,5550
486
480,54
0,55
0,56
0,57
0,58
0,59
0,60
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
0
0,54
0,544
0,51
0,52
0,53
1992
1993
1994*
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000*
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Inequality – Gini’s Index
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD and Census / IBGE
Accumulated Variation of Average Income by Income Tenths - Brazil (2009/2001)
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
Richer
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Variation of the Annual Per Capita of Average Income per Income Tenths - Brazil (2009/2008)
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
Richer
Variation of the Annual Per Capita of Average Income per Income Tenths - Brazil(2009/2003)
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
Richer
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Variation of the Annual Per Capita of Average Income per Income Tenths(2009/2001)
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
Richer
Total Income Participation in 2009 - Brazil
41,8% 42,8%
15,4%
50‐ 40 10+
Source: CPS / FGV based on microdata from PNAD / IBGE
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Inferior Superior
Definition of Economic Classes
Total Household Income from All SourcesEarnings Brackets
pClass E 0 705Class D 705 1126Class C 1126 4854Class B 4854 6329Class A 6329Class A 6329
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Economic classes evolution
59 661,165
Class AB/C Class D/E
37,9
59,662,1
49.22
38,935
40
45
50
55
60
30
Fonte: CPS/FGV a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE
Economic classes evolution
70
Class AB Class C Class D/E
5,410.4 10,6
32,5
49.2 50,562,1
40.4 38,94
10
20
30
40
50
60
Fonte: CPS/FGV a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE
,
0
10
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2009-2003 2008-2009
Economic classes evolution
Class E -45.50% -4.32%Class D -11.63% -3.00%Class C 34.32% 2.49%Class B 38.51% 3.49%Class A 40.99% 0.18%
Fonte: CPS/FGV a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE
Population Difference by Economic Classes
2009-2003 2008-2009Class E -20,481,069 -1,022,145Class D -2,431,443 -946,083Class C 29,063,545 3,172,653Class B 3,391,694 443,181Class A 3,253,636 106,487
Fonte: CPS/FGV a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE
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The Population Pyramid divided in Economic Classes
13.322.409 19.418.071 19.967.739
96.204.32875.260.044 73.291.816
65.871.283 91.762.175 94.934.828
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
2003 2008 2009
Class DE Class C Class AB
Population by Economic Classes
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Total 175,398,020 177,758,060 180,001,710 182,218,501 184,384,292 186,440,290 188,194,383Class E 49,319,851 45,147,533 41,047,646 35,196,724 33,659,359 29,860,927 28,838,782Class D 46,884,477 48,286,025 48,713,422 48,006,542 46,298,711 45,399,117 44,453,034Class C 65,871,283 70,620,183 75,266,800 81,889,806 86,476,548 91,762,175 94,934,828Class B 6,977,329 7,100,301 7,583,287 8,549,859 9,271,379 9,925,842 10,369,023Class A 6,345,080 6,604,018 7,390,555 8,575,570 8,678,295 9,492,229 9,598,716
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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The Key Role of the New Middle Class
. Politics The 94.9 million Brazilians who are in the new middle class representare in the new middle class represent 50,5% of the population. This means that the new Brazilian middle class not only includes the median voter taken
h h d d h das the one who decides the second round of an election, but that this class alone could decide an election campaign.
• Economics ‐ The new middle class is also economically dominating, concentrating
The Key Role of the New Middle Class
y g, gmore 46.24% of the purchasing power of Brazilians in 2009 (it was 45.66% in 2008) surpassing those classes AB with 44.12% of total purchasing power The otherof total purchasing power. The other classes D and E now has 9.65% of the purchasing power (falling from 19.79% just before the release of the Real Plan.
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Class A Evolution
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
Class B Evolution
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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Class C Evolution
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
Class D Evolution
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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Class E Evolution
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
Inferior SuperiorClass E2 0 420
Economic Classes More Detailled Definition
Total Household Income from All SourcesIncome Brackets limits
Class E1 420 705Class D2 541 802Class D1 802 1126Class C2 1126 1888Class C1 1888 4854Class B2 4854 4902Class B1 4902 6329Class A2 6329 9366Class A1 9366 0
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,53%
28,13%
Economic Classes Evolution –More Detailed Classification
2003
2008
14,31%
13,81%
13,69%
13,04%
18,68%
18,88%
7,23%
8,78% 11,28%
13,07%
22,69% 26,
% % % %
7,28%
8,05% 10,81%
12,81%
22,31%
2
% % % %
2009
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
2,01%
1,97%
1,83%
1,78%
2,86%
2,46%
2,55%
2,54%
2,94%
2,57%
2,50%
2,60%
E2 E1 D2 D1 C2 C1 B2 B1 A2 A1
2% 1,8%
32,9%
Income Mass by Economic ClassesMore Detailed Classification2003
2008
% 6%
14,3%
29,2
8% ,1% 9,1%
18,6%
%
13,8%
3
4% 9% 9,7%
21,3%
%
13,4%
4%
,0% 9,3%
21,4%
2009
1,4%
3,1%
4,8%
6,6
5,8 7,
0,5%
1,5%
3,1% 5,1%
6,4 6,
0,4%
1,4%
2,9% 4,9%
6,4 7,
E2 E1 D2 D1 C2 C1 B2 B1 A2 A1
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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Annual Rate of Poverty Reduction (Class E)2003/2009
Taxa Anual de Redução da Pobreza 2003-2009Até 5%de 5% a 7,5%de 7,5% a 10%de 10% a 12,5%de 12,5% a 15%Mais de 15%
1993/1995
Taxa Anual Até 5%de 5% a 7,5%de 7,5% a 10%de 10% a 12,5%de 12,5% a 15%Mais de 15%
Source: CPS / FGV based on microdata from PNAD / IBGE
Annual rate of growth in class ABC2003/2009
1993/1995Taxa Anual de Crescimento das Classes ABC - 2003-2009Até 5%de 5% a 7,5%de 7,5% a 10%de 10% a 12,5%de 12,5% a 15%Mais de 15%
Source: CPS / FGV based on microdata from PNAD / IBGE
Taxa AnualAté 5%de 5% a 7,5%de 7,5% a 10%de 10% a 12,5%de 12,5% a 15%Mais de 15%
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http://www3.fgv.br/ibrecps/RET4/2009_temporal/index2.htm
% Poverty – In Minimun Wages Lines
50 42
2003
2008
23,08
23,96
52,96
2,65
19,85
67, 5
1,87
18,71
69,4
2009
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
12
11
less than 1/4 1/4 to 1/2 more than de 1/2
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Classic Indicators of Poverty
% Poverty – In Minimun Wages Lines
4
2003
2008
47,0
32,50
30,58
2008
2009
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
Up to 1/2
Consumers and Producers
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Simulador de Renda
http://www.fgv.br/ibrecps/cpc/SIM_PNAD_0208_RENDATOT/renda.htm
Is it Sustainable?
• The synthetic indicator of potential consumption power increased by 22 6%consumption power increased by 22.6% between 2003 and 2008, while the index of the generation of income raised 31.2%. Difference of 38% in favor of the
d ti idproduction side.
• During the crisis these indexes raised 2.49% and 3.05% respectively.
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Net Generation of Formal Employment - BRAZIL Yearly (2000 to 2010 July*)
1.954.531
0452.204
1.617.392
8.686
3.981
.523.276
995.110
1.41
1.228
1.253
1.
645.433
762.415
591.079
657.596
* up to august only
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from CAGED / M T E.
2010*2009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
OccupationOccupation
OccupiedOccupied ‐‐ 1992 to 20091992 to 200910 10 yearsyears oror more*more*
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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OccupationOccupation
OccupiedOccupied ‐‐ 2009200910 10 yearsyears oror more*more*
67,33%
61,29%
49,24%
41 84%
Fonte: CPS/FGV a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE
class ABclass C
class Dclass E
41,84%
Profile of Economic Classes ‐ 2009
Position on the Occupation
Category CLASS AB CLASS C CLASS D CLASS E
Unemployed 2.14% 3.86% 7.20% 10.11%
Inactive 30.53% 34.84% 43.56% 48.05%
Agricultural
OccupationOccupation
employee 0.29% 2.33% 4.49% 4.68%
Domestic employee 0.57% 4.53% 5.95% 4.27%
Formal
Employee 21.11% 22.96% 11.77% 4.31%
Informal
Employee 4.85% 6.75% 6.68% 4.47%
Self‐employed 11.89% 11.85% 11.00% 11.05%
Employer 9.81% 2.14% 0.55% 0.55%
Public
Employee 16.84% 7.09% 3.19% 1.61%
Unpaid 1.95% 3.65% 5.62% 10.90%Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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2003 2008 2009
PensionPension ContributionContribution PrivatePrivate andand//oror PublicPublic (Social (Social SecuritySecurity))
2003 2008 2009Contributes to Social SecurityContributes Soc. Sec. Pub. & Priv 2.11 2.02 2.17Contributes Soc. Sec. Public 35.62 38.31 38.65Contributes Soc. Sec. Priv 0.75 0.89 0.96Unemployed 3.98 2.67 3.25Inactive 18.90 22.23 22.16
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
Computer with internet at Home1992 to 2009
Digital Digital AssetsAssets
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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Digital Digital AssetsAssets
Cellular Phone (at lest one at Home)1992 to 2009
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
2003 2008 2009
Digital Digital AssetsAssets AtAt HomeHome
COMPUTERHave computer with Internet 11.10 24.78 28.46Have computer 3.93 7.80 7.92Doesn’t have computer 84.85 67.20 63.45Unknown 0.13 0.22 0.16TELEPHONEHave fixed and Cellphone 27.50 39.22 38.68Have fixed 22 11 4 86 4 19Have fixed 22.11 4.86 4.19Have Cellphone 11.07 39.36 42.87Doesn’t have fixed and Cellphone 39.20 16.35 14.10
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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Digital Digital AssetsAssets atat HomeHome
Computer with internet2009
75,82%
33 90%
Cellular Phone2009class AB class C class D class E
33,90%
9,69%6,73%
95,92%
86,23%77,23%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
class AB class C class D class E
62,81%
Evolution (years) Average Years of Schooling Brazil - 1992-2008Age 25 years or more
EducationEducation
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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2003 2008 2009
EDUCATION OF THE HEAD
Without education or less than 1 year 18.41 15.09 14.05
1 to 3 15 77 12 99 12 89
Evolution (%) of the population by Educational Level
EducationEducation
1 to 3 15.77 12.99 12.89
4 to 7 29.90 26.64 26.77
8 to 11 26.82 33.72 33.59
12 or more 8.64 11.21 11.72
EDUCATION OF THE SPOUSE
Without education or less than 1 year 10 80 8 72 8 08Without education or less than 1 year 10.80 8.72 8.08
1 to 3 11.92 8.96 8.59
4 to 7 24.16 20.67 20.58
8 to 11 23.08 27.81 27.65
12 or more 6.53 8.66 9.11Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
EducationEducation
Completed Years of Schooling (pop. with 25 years or more)2009
4
6
8
10
1212,00
7,18
5,464,98
Attends or attended Schools2009
47,67%
0
2
4
class AB class C class D class E
class AB class C class D class E
10,47%
2,07% 2,44%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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PublicPublic ServicesServices
SewageSewage –– 1992 to 20091992 to 2009
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
PublicPublic ServicesServices
Garbage collected directly – 1992 to 2009
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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PublicPublic ServicesServices
SewageSewage ––20092009
72,02%
57,78%
40,45%
class AB class C class D class E
,
30,65%
Garbage collected directly –2009
91,85%87,46%
class AB class C class D class E
76,97%
64,20%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
ConsumerConsumer GoodsGoods
Washing machine – 1992 to 2009
85,72%
Washing machine ‐ 2009
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
class AB class C class D class E
53,22%
24,96%
16,48%
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ConsumerConsumer GoodsGoods
Refrigerator– 1992 to 2009
Refrigerator ‐ 2009
99,69%97,49%
92,50%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
class AB class C class D class E
79,82%
ConsumerConsumer GoodsGoods
Television – 1992 to 2009
Television – 2009
99,54%97,62%
96,00%
91,16%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
class AB class C class D class E
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More than 3 bathrooms – 1992 to 2009
More than 3 bathrooms –2009
13,24%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
class AB class C class D class E
1,07%0,23% 0,35%
Financed homeowners – 1992 to 2009
Financed homeowners – 2009
7,74%
4 97%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
class AB class C class D class E
4,97%
2,98%
1,69%
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2003 2008 2009
Own ‐ already paid 70.62 71.27 70.58
Evolution (%) Population by Housing Condition
Own ‐ still paying 4.80 4.35 4.29
Rent below the median 8.70 7.17 6.80
Rent above the median 4.73 8.19 8.98
Given 10 38 8 23 8 61Given 10.38 8.23 8.61
Other condition 0.65 0.57 0.58
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
ORDER OF ENTRY IN THE MODEL1 Number of per capita2 Telephone3 Spouses education4 Type of family5 chefe contribui para previdência head contributes to social security6 Washing machine7 # of bedrooms per capita8 Head’s education9 position on the head’s job10 school attendance of child(7 to 14 years)11 school attendance of child (0 a 6 anos)12 position on the head’s job13 Computer14 Refrigerator15 school attendance of child (15 a 17 anos)16 type of home (own, lease and financing)17 Syndicalized Head18 Freezer19 # of bedrooms per capitap p20 sewage21 Radio22 # of bathrooms23 number of residents24 Television25 Garbage colected26 age that the head started to work27 number of rooms28 share of labor income29 # of bedrooms Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
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Pre‐Crisis (Dec 2002 a 2009 x Crisis(Dec 2008 a 2009)
Class ABC Class AB Class C Class D Class E Income Gini THEIL
3,8%
4,2%
3,7%
‐2,4%
8,2%
3,8%
‐1,6%
‐4,2%
0,1% 2,0%
‐0,4%
1,4%
‐1,5%
‐0,4%
0,0%
‐1,8%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PME/IBGE
‐
dec02 to dec08 dec08 to dec09
Variation in Economic Classes in Post-Crisis
7%
%
Class ABC Class AB Class C Class D Class E
0,8%
‐0,6%
1,2%
‐2,5%
‐1,2%
‐2,3%
‐2,7%
‐2,2%
3,0%
6,
1,0%
5,3%
‐0,2%
0,6%
‐4,1%
0,8%
0,7%
0,8%
‐2,5% ‐1,1%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PME/IBGE
set08 to dec08 dec08 to jan09 jan09 to set09 out09 to dec09
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%
13,0%Class ABC Class AB Class C Class D Class E
3,8%
4,2%
3,7%
‐2,4%
%
0,1% 2,0%
‐0,4%
1,4%
‐1,5%
3,9%
7,8
2,9%
7%
%
5,5%
3,4%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PME/IBGE
‐8,2‐7, 7
‐8,6%
‐12,4%
‐11,3%
dec02 to dec08 dec08 to dec09 janjun09 to janjun10 jul09 to jul10
% 2% 9,2%
10,3%
9,7%
%
13,0%Class ABC Class AB Class C Class D Class E
3,8%
4,2%
3,7%
‐2,4%
‐8,2%
0,1% 2,0%
‐0,4%
1,4%
‐1,5%
3,2% 5,5%
2,5%
‐4,6%
‐7,9%
3,4%
7,2
2,4%
‐4,9%
‐8,7%
3,7%
5,3%
3,3%
‐8,4%
‐7,2%
4,8%
9
3,6%
‐9,3%
‐10,0%
4,2%
2,5%
‐8,8%
‐8,8%
4,4%
3,0%
‐10,0%
‐9,0%
5,5%
3,4%
,4%
1,3%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PME/IBGE
‐‐‐12,
‐1
dec02 to dec08 dec08 to dec09 jan09 to jan10 feb09 to feb10 mar09 to mar10apr09 to apr10 may09 to may10 jun09 to jun10 jul09 to jul10
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7%
income Gini THEIL3,8%
‐1,6%
‐4,2%
‐0,4%
0,0%
‐1,8%
3,6%
‐1,9%
‐5,1%
7,7
‐1,4%
‐2,7%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PME/IBGE
‐
dec02 to dec08 dec08 to dec09 janjun09 to janjun10 jul09 to jul10
8% 9%
6% 5,1%
4,6%
7%
7,7%
income Gini THEIL
3,8
‐1,6%
‐4,2%
‐0,4%
0,0%
‐1,8%
0,9%
‐1,8%
%
3,9
‐1,5%
2%
3,6
‐1,5%
‐3,8%‐2,2%
,8%
4
‐1,9%
‐3,4%
3,7
‐2,2%
‐4,3%
‐1,4%
‐2,7%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PME/IBGE
‐7,2%
‐6,2 ‐5,
dec02 to dec08 dec08 to dec09 jan09 to jan10
feb09 to feb10 mar09 to mar10 apr09 to apr10
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Variation in Median Income and Electoral Cycles*
1982 3% 1990 -2% 2001 2%
Elections and “Expantions"
1983 -23% 1992 -3% 2002 1%
1984 -% 1993 -2% 2003 -4%
1985 20% 1995 25% 2004 6%
1986 53% 1996 0% 2005 9%
1987 -27% 1997 3% 2006 10%
1988 -11% 1998 2% 2007 2%
1989 6% 1999 -4%
Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE
Obs:In 1991, 1994 and 2000 PNAD did not go to the field