NBS-3B1Y Strategic Corporate Sustainability 10th December 2013

NBS-3B1Y Strategic Corporate Sustainability 10th December 2013

Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CenvReader Emeritus in Environmental Sciences [email protected]

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal5th October 2007

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UK Energy Futures: The Triple Challenges of Energy Security, Climate Change and Affordability

2

Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012

• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km• Red line outlines extent for reference• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km a loss of 51% in 33 years• Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum• Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html

Is Global Warming natural or man-made?

Natural causes• Earth’s Orbit• Sunspot Activity• Volcanic Eruptions • Etc.

Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960

Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period.

BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

3

Temperature variations in last 160 years

www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_11-014_Warmest_Year.htm

4

5

Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UKUntil 2004, the UK was a net exporter of gas.

Currently only 50% now provided by UK sources.

Import Gap

In early March 2013, technical issues with pipe line from Norway and restrictions on LNG imports made UK gas supply tight.

In late March things became even more critical with less than 1 days supply available.

Reduction because of switch back to coal

6

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers

Energy Review

2002

9th May 2011 (*)

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at present 45-

50%)Available now (but gas

is running out)~2p +

8.0p[5 - 11]

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

?

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Bil

lion

cu

bic

met

res

Actual UK production

Actual UK demandProjected productionProjected demand

Import Gap

Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UKGas Production and Demand in UK

Only 50% now provided by UK sources.

Warning issued on 17th April 2012 that over-reliance on

Norway and imported LNG from Qatar will lead to price

rises by end of year

Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.

UK no longer self sufficient

in gas

Langeled Line to Norway

Oil reaches $130 a barrel

Severe Cold Spells

8Per capita Carbon Emissions

UK

How does UK compare with other countries?

Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?

What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?

France

9

Carbon Emissions and Electricity

UK

France

Mean Daily Electricity Generation in November

InterconnectorsOtherHydroWindOilCoalCCGTNuclear

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Interconnectors 1.1% 1.8% 1.5% 4.0% 5.6%

Other 0% 0% 0% 1.5% 0.9%

Hydro 2.6% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2%

Wind 1.3% 1.7% 4.2% 5.3% 7.0%

Oil 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Coal 27% 37% 43.5% 46.3% 38.4%

CCGT 49.7% 41.8% 32.9% 25.0% 26.6%

Nuclear 18.3% 15.7% 15.6% 16.7% 19.2%

Daily Electricity Generation in November

12Per capita Carbon Emissions (tonnes per capita)

How do UK and Saudi Arabia compare with other countries?

Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?

What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?

12

UKFrance

World Average

Saudi Arabia

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How does electricity consumption vary between countries?

• Why do very similar countries (e.g. Norway and Sweden) have very different levels of consumption?

• What environmental impact might these differences have?

Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.

14

Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.

Fuel Approximate emission factor

per kWh

Comments

Coal ~900 – 1000g Depending on grade and efficiency of power station

Oil ~800-900 Depending on grade and efficiency of power station

Gas (Steam) ~600g Conventional Steam Station

Gas (CCGT) ~400g Most modern may be as low as 380g

Nuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor type

Renewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro

• Transmission/Distribution losses • UK ~ 8%: Saudi Arabia 9%: India ~ 24%

Overall UK ~530gVaries on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix

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CO2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh)

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France

UK

Saudi Arabia

Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh

World Average 0.550

Saudi Arabia

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Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries

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Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro/ Tidal/Wave

Other Renewables

Biofuels/Waste

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Conventional Generation of Electricity

Diagram illustrates situation with conventional generation using coal, oil, gas or nuclear

Overall efficiency ~ 35%

Largest loss in Power Station

1.0 Unit

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods


Energy Review

2002

9th May 2011 (*)

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at present 45-

50%)Available now (but gas

is running out)~2p +

8.0p[5 - 11]

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and

falling)

new inherently safe designs - some

development needed2.5 - 3.5p

7.75p [5.5 - 10]

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest not until

2050 for significant impact

"Clean Coal"Coal currently ~40% but

scheduled to fall

Available now: Not viable without Carbon

Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p

[7.5 - 15]p - unlikely

before 2025

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

In

sta

lled

Ca

pa

cit

y (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.

?

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Future prices from

* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee

1.5MW TurbineAt peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes

On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year

~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002

(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *

On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]

available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p

20


~8.2p +/- 0.8p


(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *



Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount

Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical

development needed to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

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~8.2p +/- 0.8p


(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *





~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at

Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW

Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

Hydro (mini - micro)

5%technically mature, but

limited potential2.5 - 3p

11p for <2MW projects

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~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and

drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *





~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5






Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.

Photovoltaic<<5% even

assuming 10 GW of installation

available, but much further research needed to bring down

costs significantly15+ p

25p +/-8 11-13p (2013 projection)

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~8.2p +/- 0.8p


(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *





~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5






Photovoltaic<<5% even assuming

10 GW of installation

available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly

15+ p 25p +/-8

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass

Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification

2.5 - 4p7 - 13p

depending on technology

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind

~20% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind

20 - 40%available but costly

~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects

Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very

costly15+ p 25p +/-8

Biomass ??5% available, but research

needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW may be

1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)

technology limited - major development not

before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

No sound on video

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5





needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream


1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

Open Hydro commissioned off Eday – Sept 2007

Alstom Device seen at Hatston April 2013

Video of device

There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device

Video of device

There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device

ScotRenewablesFloating device

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5





needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream


1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently

e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009

Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs

In Orkney – Churchill Barriers

Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south.

Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%

technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years.

In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development

26p +/-5

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW




needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW

(~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned

plans for development26p +/-5

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be

confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW




needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW

(~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned

plans for development26p +/-5

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be

confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.

Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.

[very expensive or technically immature or both]

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee

[9th May 2011]

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

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Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

Existing Coal

Existing Nuclear

Oil

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TW

H (b

illio

ns o

f uni

ts (k

Wh)

)

Existing Coal

UK GasImported Gas

New Nuclear?

New Coal ?

Existing Nuclear

Other Renewables

Offshore WindOnshore Wind

Oil

Data for demand derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

• Limited electric cars or heat pumps

Version suitable for Office 2007 & 2010

Fracked Gas

• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.• 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now

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Sustainable Options for the future?Energy Generation•Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally less suitable for other businesses

•Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation

• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).

• The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get!

• Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2012

• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer

• Approximate annual estimate of generation

= installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095

hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Raising Awareness

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Raising Awareness

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

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Conclusions• Hard Choices face the UK in the next 5 years

• Contrary to popular belief, support for renewables has been responsible for less than 10% of rise in bills in last 8 years.

• Increases in fossil fuel prices has been much more significant factor and will continue to do so.

• Headlines following publication of Energy Bill last week suggest bills will include £100 in support of nuclear and renewables,

– But fossil fuel prices are likely to rise substantially

– |Doing nothing will mean that bills will be more by 2020 than they otherwise would be.

• Lack of forward planning in the past, Energy Security is now a critical issue - only Wind (Onshore and Offshore) and potentially INSECURE gas can plug the gap post 2015.

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

NBS-3B1Y Strategic Corporate Sustainability 10th December 2013

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