Modeling Life-History Traits as Functional Responses to Environmental Conditions AN ADAPTATION OF...
-
Upload
anastasia-fox -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Modeling Life-History Traits as Functional Responses to Environmental Conditions AN ADAPTATION OF...
Modeling Life-History Traits as Functional
Responses to Environmental Conditions
AN ADAPTATION OF THE SHIRAZ MODEL FOR ONCORHYNCHUS MYKISS
2008 Steelhead Management MeetingMarch 4–6 2008
Ray HilbornLucy Flynn
Dave BeauchampBrad Thompson
Craig Busack
Modeling Objective
Population dynamics
ΔN
Habitat management
Human actions
VSP criteria
Habitat response
ΔP
ΔS
ΔD
Fish response
Habitat Conditions
Road decommissioning
Change in levels of fine sediment
Change in egg-to-fry survival
e.g.,Bartz et al.
2006
e.g.,Scheuerell et al.
2006
Map source: http://w
ww
.sharedsalmonstrategy.org
Puget Sound Western WA
Ward et al. (2006) – shift in smolt age after habitat restoration and nutrient addition
Thrower et al. (2004) – development of resident population from anadromous
Chris Frederiksen (Biologist, Yakama Nation; personal comment) – steady increase in proportion of females amongst anadromous fish
Life-History Plasticity in Steelhead
Effect of Environment on Life-History Trajectories
Model
Diversity Criterion Cramer
EDTN-L ORCM
RIPPLE
SHIRAZ
Migration in freshwater X X XAnadromySmolt ageMigration at seaAge at return migrationRun season (S vs. W)Iteroparity
Mangel and Satterthwaite 2006
Spawners
Recruits
Multistage Beverton-Holt Model
1
1
11
1c
SpSpR
Moussalli and Hilborn 1986
Multistage Beverton-Holt Model
1
1
11
1c
SpSpR
2
12
122
1cRp
RpR
S
R1
R2
Moussalli and Hilborn 1986
n
i i
i
nn
cP
PC
1
n
iin pP
1
01.01615.01
1
1 Tp
1
1
11
1c
SpSpR
p,c = f(habitat conditions)
Scheuerell et al. 2006
ififif
TT
T
6.226.2216
16
Resident & Anadromous O. mykiss
Genetics Seamons et al. (2004) – 39% of juvenile steelhead could
not be assigned one parent, and 88% of those could not be assigned a male parent.
Araki et al. (2007) – “high levels of reproductive contribution of nonanadromous parents to anadromous offspring when anadromous run size is small”
Observation McMillan et al. (2007) – 14.5% of attempted matings with
wild anadromous females were by wild resident males.
Detailed Tracking in Model
Life-history stages include the periods of time between each decision-making point
O. mykiss born of anadromous mothers and those born of resident mothers are tracked separately.
Males and females are tracked separately The average body size of each of fish is
tracked using a bioenergetics model.
Life-History Stage
Area Area
G
G
G G
G
Life-History Stage
Life-History Stage
Life-History Stage
Groups within life-history stages identified by
Area of birth Area of current residence Year of birth Sex Life-history stage History
Life-history trajectory Spatial history
Somatic growth (tracked only through juvenile stages)
Detailed tracking
Resident female eggs
Resident YOY
Resident age 1
Resident age 1+
Resident age 2
Resident age 2+
Resident age 3
Mature resident
Ocean year 1
Anadromous spawners
Resident spawners
Anadromous female eggs
Anadromous YOY
Anadromous age 1
Anadromous age 1+
Anadromous age 2
Anadromous age 2+
Anadromous age 3
Incubation stages
Freshwater stages
Marine stages
Spawning stagesOcean year 2
Ocean year 3
Ocean post-spawning
Emphasize the four categories of stages
Note that the key concern is freshwater stages…
Resident female eggs
Resident YOY
Resident age 1
Resident age 1+
Resident age 2
Resident age 2+
Resident age 3
Resident age 3+
Mature resident
Ocean year 1
Anadromous spawners
Resident spawners
Anadromous female eggs
Anadromous YOY
Anadromous age 1
Anadromous age 1+
Anadromous age 2
Anadromous age 2+
Anadromous age 3
Anadromous age 3+
Incubation stages
Freshwater stages
Marine stages
Spawning stages
Ocean year 2
Ocean year 3
Ocean post-spawning
Resident female eggs
Resident YOY
Resident age 1
Resident age 1+
Resident age 2
Resident age 2+
Resident age 3
Resident age 3+
Mature resident
Ocean year 1
Anadromous spawners
Resident spawners
Anadromous female eggs
Anadromous YOY
Anadromous age 1
Anadromous age 1+
Anadromous age 2
Anadromous age 2+
Anadromous age 3
Anadromous age 3+
Incubation stages
Freshwater stages
Marine stages
Spawning stages
Ocean year 2
Ocean year 3
Ocean post-spawning
Resident female eggs
Resident YOY
Resident age 1
Resident age 1+
Resident age 2
Resident age 2+
Resident age 3
Resident age 3+
Mature resident
Ocean year 1
Anadromous spawners
Resident spawners
Anadromous female eggs
Anadromous YOY
Anadromous age 1
Anadromous age 1+
Anadromous age 2
Anadromous age 2+
Anadromous age 3
Anadromous age 3+
Incubation stages
Freshwater stages
Marine stages
Spawning stages
Ocean year 2
Ocean year 3
Ocean post-spawning
Resident female eggs
Resident YOY
Resident age 1
Resident age 1+
Resident age 2
Resident age 2+
Resident age 3
Resident age 3+
Mature resident
Ocean year 1
Anadromous spawners
Resident spawners
Anadromous female eggs
Anadromous YOY
Anadromous age 1
Anadromous age 1+
Anadromous age 2
Anadromous age 2+
Anadromous age 3
Anadromous age 3+
Incubation stages
Freshwater stages
Marine stages
Spawning stages
Ocean year 2
Ocean year 3
Ocean post-spawning
Issue: Ecologically Overlapping Stages
Figure from Mangel and Satterthwaite 2006
Competitive Overlap
j
jj
jjj
cNp
NpN
11
83.2))((log61.2)(log 1010 gg lt
i
iijijj TDqcE
j
jj
jjj
cEp
NpN
11
j
jjTDPHS 100
Percent Habitat Saturation (PHS; Grant et al. 1998)
Effective number of competitors (E)
Functional Relationships
Habitatfcp ,
Habitatfr
BodySizefb ba
Poster!
Thanks…
WDFW: Anne Marshall, Jim Scott, Brett Barkdull, Tasha Geiger, Mat Gillum, Thom Johnson, Randy Cooper, Joanne Schuett-Hames, Hal Michael
NMFS: Krista Bartz, James Battin, Jeff Hard, Beth Sanderson, George Pess, Jon Honea, Mark Scheuerell, Kelly Burnett, Pete Lawson
UW: Todd Seamons, Tom Quinn, Willy Eldridge Others: Chris Frederiksen, Bill McMillan, John
McMillan, Ray Beamesderfer, Bill Graeber, Yetta Jager, Larry Lestelle, Steven Ralph, Pamela Woods, Bob Vadas