Metode Gumbel
-
Upload
meyyer-christopher-lumembang -
Category
Documents
-
view
228 -
download
0
Transcript of Metode Gumbel
-
7/24/2019 Metode Gumbel
1/7
Data Rata-Rata Curah Hujan Bulanan
Kota Makassar Tahun 2009-2014
No
.
Bulan Curah
Hujan
Rata-Rata
Rata-Rata Curah
Hujan
1 Januari 788
255.3875
2 Februari 466.83
3 Maret 32.83
4 !"ril 21.67
5 Mei 134.33
6 Juni 1#2.16
7 Juli 55.83
8 !$u%tu% 1#.67
&e"te'b
er
38.83
1# ()tober 52.33
11 No*e'be
r
155.17
12 +e%e'be
r
648
Rata-Rata 255.3875
Diketahui:
1. X=255.3875mm
2. n=12
Ditanyakan:
1. Ym
2. YT
3. S ' ,&tanar +e*ia%iYm
4. S " ,&tanar +e*ia%i Curah Hujan
5. XT ,Curah Hujan "aa
Ti
-
7/24/2019 Metode Gumbel
2/7
Penyelesaian:
1 Ym
Ym=ln(ln((n+1 )m(n+1 ) ))
( (n+1 )m ) ((n+1
)m
(n+1 ) ) ln
((n+1
)m
(n+1 ) ) ln
(ln((
n+1
)m(n+1) ))1 12 #.23#77 #.#8##43 2.5251441
2 11 #.846154 #.167#54 1.7843765
3 1# #.76231 #.262364 1.338#21418
4 #.623#8 #.367725 1.###42#5#1
5 8 #.615385 #.4855#8 #.7225583
6 7 #.538462 #.61#3 #.47586667
7 6 #.461538 #.7731 #.25723#61
8 5 #.384615 #.55511 #.#455#8537
4 #.3#762 1.178655 -#.1643735
1
# 3 #.23#76 1.466337 -#.3827675
1
1 2 #.153846 1.8718#2 -#.626#17
1
2 1 #.#7623 2.5644 -#.413873
ln(ln((n+(n 6.#4178
-
7/24/2019 Metode Gumbel
3/7
YM=
ln(ln((n+1 )m(n+1 ) ))n
YM=6.041978
12
YM= 0!0"49#
2 YT
YT=ln(ln((T1 )T ))/10 3 /20 6 /30
T
,/ahun ((T1 )
T
) (ln
((T1)
T
)) ln
(ln
((T1 )
T
))3
#.666667 #.4#5465 #.#272
6#.83333
3 #.182322 1.7#183
#.88888
#.117783 2.13811
YT1=0,90272
YT2=1.701983
YT3=2.138911
-
7/24/2019 Metode Gumbel
4/7
" S $ %&tan'ar De(iasiYm )
Sm= (Ym (i)Ym )
2
(n1 )
Ym (n ) Ym (Ym (n)Ym ) (Ym(i)Ym )2
2.5251441
#.5#34822.#2167 4.#87258
1.7843765 1.2853 1.65364
1.338#21418 #.834523 #.66421.###42#
5#1 #.4622 #.24632#.72255
83 #.21#62 #.#4788#.47586
667 -#.#231 #.###572#.25723#
61 -#.24627 #.#6#648#.#455#8
537 -#.457 #.2#755
-#.164373
-#.66787 #.446#53
-
7/24/2019 Metode Gumbel
5/7
5-
#.3827675 -#.88627 #.785467
-#.626#1
7 -1.13#4 1.2778#4-
#.413873 -1.44544 2.#8288
(Ym(i)Ym)2
11.6#183
Sm=
(Ym (i)Ym )2
(n1 )
Sm=11.6018311Sm=0.966819
Sm=0.98327
4 S * %&tan'ar De(iasi Curah Hujan)
Sp= (P(i )P)
2
(n1)
Bulan P( i) P (P(i )P ) (P(i )P )2
-
7/24/2019 Metode Gumbel
6/7
Januari 788
255.3875
532.6125 283676.#752Februari 466.83 211.4425 447#7.3#81Maret 32.83 137.4425 188#.44#81!"ril 21.67 -35.7175 1275.738#6
Mei 134.33 -121.#58 14654.1831Juni 1#2.16 -153.228 23478.66676Juli 55.83 -1.558 3823.1581
!$u%tu% 1#.67 -244.718 5886.65481&e"te'
ber38.83
-216.558 4687.15#81()tober 52.33 -2#3.#58 41232.34831No*e'b
er155.17
-1##.218 1##43.54731+e%e'b
er
648
32.6125 154144.5752 (P(i) P )2
738711.2438
Sp= (P(i )P)
2
(n1)
Sp=738711.243811Sp=67155.56762
Sp=259.143913mm
! XT %Curah Hujan *a'a
Ti )
-
7/24/2019 Metode Gumbel
7/7
XT=P+((YTYm )Sm )SP
YT P Sm Ym Sp
XT1#.#272
255.3875 #.8327 #.5#348 25.1431
3
XT21.7#183
255.3875 #.8327 #.5#348 25.1431
3
XT32.13811
255.3875 #.8327 #.5#348 25.1431
3
YTYm(YTYm )
Sm ((YTYm )
Sm )SP
P+(
(YTYm )Sm )
SP
#.322
#.4#6#1251 1#5.2157268 36#.6#32
1.17583
1.2175462 315.6268868 571.#144
1.635411
1.66323654 431.#178773 686.4#54