INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM DRIVERS OF DYNAMICS

OF SMALL PELAGIC FISH RESOURCES

MARCH 6-11, 2017 VICTORIA, CANADA

Catch dynamics of small pelagic fishes at Bali Strait & South Java Sea in relation to the climatic

regime shift: case study on Sardinella lemuru

Aida Sartimbul, Erfan Rohadi, Defri Yona, Hideaki Nakata, Jogi

Arleston, Iwan T Wibowo, Kirana F Setiabudi, Kharisma W Sesanti

Marine Science Resources Exploration and Management Research Group Marine Science Dept. of Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia

Information Management, State Polytechnic of Malang, Indonesia Fisheries Faculty, Nagasaki University, Japan

Outline:

• Introduction • Objective • Data and Methods • Result and Discussion • Small Pelagic Fish CPUE Trend • Seasonal Variation • Inter-annual Variation • Regime Shift • Summary

Background

S. Lemuru (SPF) main species target of Bali Strait (80-90%), followed by Decapterus spp. and Euthynus spp. (Merta et al., 1995; Hendiarti et al, 2005)

S. Lemuru supporting public health ( >25% of total sardine oil were contained omega-3 fatty acid) (Sartimbul et al., 2015)

It was disappeared in 2010 to 2012 it gave impact on economics loss mainly for coastal community

Limited study related to the SPF dynamics and its relation to the climate change and regime shift in Indonesia……….

Understanding the variability of SPF catch

Understanding the SPF catch composition and its relation to the oceanographic features

Understanding the SPF catch variability in relation to the regime shift and climate variability

Objectives

Introduction Material and Methods Result and Discussion Conclusion

Study Area 1st Station : 1140 26’ 11” BT 08 27’ 14” LS

2nd Station : 1140 34’ 43” BT 08 37’ 08” LS 3rd Station : 1140 40’16 BT 08 42’ 18” LS

(Fishing Ground at Bali Strait

Temperature and Clorophyl-a Insitu Data : June – December 2013 Temperature and Clorophyl-a Satellite Data : February 2002 - April 2015

Introduction Material and Methods Result and Discussion Conclusion

Sampling site of South Java (Fishing ground of S. lemuru)

Data and Methods

• 14-year monthly Catch per Unit Effort (CpUE) of SPF catch data provided by Muncar Fishing Port (Bali Strait) and South Java

• 14-year monthly satellite Aqua MODIS data of SST & Chl-a (2002-2015) (www.modis.gsfc.nasa.gov).

• Monthly temp. and Chl-a Insitu Data were collected using AAQ Alec Japan (Jun – Dec 2013)

• Plankton data were sampled on June-Dec, 2013

• Anomalies, standardization, statistics, and Regime shift detection (Rodionov, 2005) methods were applied in this study

• Nino 3.4 and IOD were used as Climate index (NOAA, 2007)

http://www.modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Insitu and Satellite Temperature Data Verification

No. Date of

Data Retrieval

Insitu

Data

(0C)

Satellite

Data (0C)

Temp.

difference

(0C)

1 June 15, 2013 30,00 29,34 0,66

2 July 20, 2013 29,40 28,72 0,68

3 August 20, 2013 29,10 28,22 0,88

4 September 21, 2013 28,90 27,94 0,96

5 October 16, 2013 29,00 28,41 0,59

6 November 12, 2013 29,30 28,75 0,55

7 December 11, 2013 30,00 30,02 -0,02

Maximum Value 30,02

Minimum Value 27,94

Model R R Square Adjusted R

Square Std. Error of the Estimate

1 ,945a ,894 ,872 ,25324

RESULT & DISCUSSION

Chart1

30

29.4

29.1

28.9

29

29.3

30

Suhu Satelit

Insitu Temperature(0C)

Satellite Temperature ( 0C)

29.34

28.72

28.22

27.94

28.41

28.75

30.02

Sheet1

NoTanggal Pengambilan dataSuhuSuhuNoTanggal Pengambilan datachlchl

In SituSatelitIn SituSatelit

510 Mei 201330.429.69510 Mei 20130.60.55Nop'121.421.42

615 Juni 201330.529.70615 Juni 20130.180.36Peb'120.910.91

720 Juli 20132927.76720 Juli 20131.080.95Mei'130.06380.0638

820 Agustus 20133026.38820 Agustus 20131.81.72Juni'130.17660.1766

921 Sept 201330.526.24921 Sept 20130.670.73Juli'131.3830,785601.383

10Okt'1330.227.7110Okt'130.540.50Agt'130.19481.8853.20022.88422.04105

11Nop'1329.328.9311Nop'130.360.41Sept'131.3912.5882.1130,6722.0306666667

12Des'132928.7612Des'130.310.24Okt'130,39120,70081.1470,81721.1470

13Jan'143130.2413Jan'141.60.24Nop'130,16160,29180,60381.06141.06140

1429.58140.26Des'131.34520.3084.58724.15922.59990.8266

1530.00150.37Jan'142.20762.2651.69245.17282.83445

16Apr'143030.0216Apr'140.9270.46Apr'140.9270.9451.25541.73241.21495

17Mei '143029.5717Mei '140.99710.45Mei '140.99711.1211.5411.96431.40585

18Juni'143127.2618Juni'141.31180.92Juni'141.31182.2981.22861.17921.5044

19Agust'143127.1619Agust'141.23020.72Agust'141.23021.78892.29321.2311.635825

Nop'121.421.42

Peb'120.910.91

Mei'130.06380.0638

Juni'130.17660.1766

Juli'131.3830,78561.383

Agt'130.19481.8853.20022.88422.04105

Sept'131.3912.5882.1130,6722.0306666667

Okt'130,39120,70081.1470,81721.147

Nop'130,16160,29180,60381.06141.0614

Des'131.34520.3084.58724.15922.5999

Jan'142.20762.2651.69245.17282.83445

Apr'140.9270.9451.25541.73241.21495

Mei '140.99711.1211.5411.96431.40585

Juni'141.31182.2981.22861.17921.5044

Agust'141.23021.78892.29321.2311.635825

Sheet2

NoTanggal Pengambilan DataData Insitu (C)Data Satelit (C)Beda Suhu (0C)NoTanggal Pengambilan datadata insitu (mg/m3)data satelit (mg/m3)Beda Klorofil (mg/m3)

115 Juni 201330.0029.340.66115 Juni 20130.1760.185-0.010.660.60.380.5466666667

220 Juli 201329.4028.720.68220 Juli 20131.3801.417-0.040.650.640.750.68

320 Agustus 201329.1028.220.88320 Agustus 20132.0412.225-0.180.740.931.180.95

421 September 201328.9027.940.96421 September 20132.1311.9890.141.991.661.51.7166666667

516 Oktober 201329.0028.410.59516 Oktober 20131.1471.267-0.120.830.610.750.73

612 November 201329.3028.750.55612 November 20130.7031.059-0.360.560.630.650.6133333333

711 Desember 201330.0030.02-0.02711 Desember 20130.6420.3850.260.620.330.270.4066666667

Nilai Maximum30.00Nilai Maximum1.980.290.20.220.2366666667

Nilai Minimum27.92Nilai Minimum0.01

SuhuSuhu

In SituSatelit

3029.34

29.428.72

29.128.22

28.927.94

2928.41

29.328.75

3030.02

chlchl

In SituSatelit

0.1760.19

1.381.42

2.0412.23

2.1311.99

1.1471.27

0.7031.06

0.6420.39

NoTanggal Pengambilan SampelKOORDINATdata insitudata satelitBeda Klorofil

data insitu (mg/m3)data satelit (mg/m3)Beda Klorofil (mg/m3)

LattitudeLongitude(mg/L)(mg/L)(mg/L)

115 Juni 201308037'12"114034'14"30.0029.34-0.01

220 Juli 201308037'12"114034'14"29.4028.72-0.04

320 Agustus 201308037'12"114034'14"29.1028.22-0.18

421 September 201308037'12"114034'14"28.9027.940.14

516 Oktober 201308037'12"114034'14"29.0028.41-0.12

612 November 201308037'12"114034'14"29.3028.75-0.36

711 Desember 201308037'12"114034'14"30.0030.020.26

Nilai Maximum

Nilai Minimum

Sheet2

Suhu Satelit

Suhu Insitu (0C)

Suhu Satelit ( 0C)

Sheet3

chl Satelit

Klorofil-a Satelit (mg/m3)

Klorofil-a insiitu (mg/m3)

Model

R

R Square

Adjusted R Square

Std. Error of the Estimate

1

,945a

,894

,872

,25324

Clorophyl-a Data Verification

No. Date of

Retrieval Data

Insitu

Data

(mg/m3)

Satellite

Data

(mg/m3)

Chl-a

difference

(mg/m3) 1 Jun 15, 2013 0,17 0,18 -0,01

2 Jul 20, 2013 1,38 1,41 -0,04

3 Aug 20, 2013 2,04 2,22 -0,18

4 Sep 21, 2013 2,13 1,98 0,14*

5 Nov 16, 2013 1,14 1,26 -0,12

6 Nov 12, 2013 0,70 1,05 -0,36

7 Dec 11, 2013 0,64 0,38 0,26*

Maximum Value 2,13

Minimum Value 0,17

Model R R Square Adjusted R

Square Std. Error of the Estimate

1 ,951a ,904 ,885 ,24738 a. Predictors: (Constant), suhusatelitMODIS

Introduction Material and Methods Result and Discussion Conclusion

Chart1

0.176

1.083

2.041

2.033

1.147

0.454

0.684

chl Satelit

Chl-a Satellite (mg/m3)

Chl-a insiitu (mg/m3)

0.185

1.417

2.225

1.792

0.886

0.237

0.823

Sheet1

NoTanggal Pengambilan dataSuhuSuhuNoTanggal Pengambilan datachlchl

In SituSatelitIn SituSatelit

510 Mei 201330.429.69510 Mei 20130.60.55Nop'121.421.42

615 Juni 201330.529.70615 Juni 20130.180.36Peb'120.910.91

720 Juli 20132927.76720 Juli 20131.080.95Mei'130.06380.0638

820 Agustus 20133026.38820 Agustus 20131.81.72Juni'130.17660.1766

921 Sept 201330.526.24921 Sept 20130.670.73Juli'131.3830,785601.383

10Okt'1330.227.7110Okt'130.540.50Agt'130.19481.8853.20022.88422.04105

11Nop'1329.328.9311Nop'130.360.41Sept'131.3912.5882.1130,6722.0306666667

12Des'132928.7612Des'130.310.24Okt'130,39120,70081.1470,81721.1470

13Jan'143130.2413Jan'141.60.24Nop'130,16160,29180,60381.06141.06140

1429.58140.26Des'131.34520.3084.58724.15922.59990.8266

1530.00150.37Jan'142.20762.2651.69245.17282.83445

16Apr'143030.0216Apr'140.9270.46Apr'140.9270.9451.25541.73241.21495

17Mei '143029.5717Mei '140.99710.45Mei '140.99711.1211.5411.96431.40585

18Juni'143127.2618Juni'141.31180.92Juni'141.31182.2981.22861.17921.5044

19Agust'143127.1619Agust'141.23020.72Agust'141.23021.78892.29321.2311.635825

Nop'121.421.42

Peb'120.910.91

Mei'130.06380.0638

Juni'130.17660.1766

Juli'131.3830,78561.383

Agt'130.19481.8853.20022.88422.04105

Sept'131.3912.5882.1130,6722.0306666667

Okt'130,39120,70081.1470,81721.147

Nop'130,16160,29180,60381.06141.0614

Des'131.34520.3084.58724.15922.5999

Jan'142.20762.2651.69245.17282.83445

Apr'140.9270.9451.25541.73241.21495

Mei '140.99711.1211.5411.96431.40585

Juni'141.31182.2981.22861.17921.5044

Agust'141.23021.78892.29321.2311.635825

Sheet2

NoTanggal Pengambilan DataData Insitu (C)Data Satelit (C)Beda Suhu (0C)NoTanggal Pengambilan datadata insitu (mg/m3)data satelit (mg/m3)Beda Klorofil (mg/m3)

115 Juni 201330.0029.340.66115 Juni 20130.1760.185-0.010.660.60.380.5466666667

220 Juli 201329.4028.720.68220 Juli 20131.0831.417-0.330.650.640.750.68

320 Agustus 201329.1028.220.88320 Agustus 20132.0412.225-0.180.740.931.180.95

421 September 201328.9027.940.96421 September 20132.0331.7920.241.991.661.51.7166666667

516 Oktober 201329.0028.410.59516 Oktober 20131.1470.8860.260.830.610.750.73

612 November 201329.3028.750.55612 November 20130.4540.2370.220.560.630.650.6133333333

711 Desember 201330.0030.02-0.02711 Desember 20130.6840.823-0.140.620.330.270.4066666667

Nilai Maximum30.00Nilai Maximum1.980.290.20.220.2366666667

Nilai Minimum27.92Nilai Minimum0.01

SuhuSuhu

In SituSatelit

3029.34

29.428.72

29.128.22

28.927.94

2928.41

29.328.75

3030.02

chlchl

In SituSatelit

0.1760.19

1.0831.42

2.0412.23

2.0331.79

1.1470.89

0.4540.24

0.6840.82

Sheet2

Suhu Satelit

Suhu Insitu (0C)

Suhu Satelit ( 0C)

Sheet3

chl Satelit

Klorofil-a Satelit (mg/m3)

Klorofil-a insiitu (mg/m3)

Model

R

R Square

Adjusted R Square

Std. Error of the Estimate

1

,951a

,904

,885

,24738

a. Predictors: (Constant), suhusatelitMODIS

Fish Catch landed in Bali Strait • Total Fish Catch in Bali Strait

• Percentage Fish Dominant Landed in Bali Strait

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Pers

enta

ge (%

)

Sardinella lemuru Decapterus spp Euthynnus spp Other Fish

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tota

l Cat

ch (T

on)

Total Catch

Seasonal variation

• Max. catches of S. lemuru occurs in Trans-1 Monsoon

• It is 3-month after upwelling event during SE monsoon (Sartimbul et al., 2010)

• Intensive upwelling the primarily production increases (Chl-a)

0.27 0.32 0.23

0.50

1.02

1.47

1.21 1.19 1.09 1.08

0.83

0.50

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60

J F M A M J J A S O N D

CHL

-A (M

G/M

3)

MONTH

Chl-a

NW Monso

on

Transition I

SE Monsoon

Transition II

4163.64 4191.00

2507.86 2214.97 3085.68 2937.28

1803.20

2994.42 3104.78 3956.67

6086.50 5411.99

0.001000.002000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

CPU

E S

. LEM

URU

(KG

)

MONTH

S.lemuru

NW Monso

on

Transition I

SE Monsoon

Transition II

29.64 30.09 30.15

29.38 28.47

27.24 26.48

25.77 26.03 27.08

28.53 29.44

23.0024.0025.0026.0027.0028.0029.0030.0031.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

SST (

DEG

.C)

MONTH

SST

NW Monso

on

Transition I

SE Monsoon

Transition II

Inter-annual SPF Catch Composition and Oceanographic variation

(a) (b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

Gambar 32. Trend Anomali Bulanan Suhu (a), Klorofil (b) dan Ikan Dominan yang

Tertangkap (c - e) di Perairan Selat BaliInter-annual catch variation

SST Chl-a

Standardization parameters -2-1

0

1

2

3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

SST

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Chl-a

-2-10123

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

S. lemuru

-2-10123

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Decapterus spp

-2

-1

0

1

2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Euthynnus spp

-2-10123

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Nino 3.4

Cooling year (El Nino 2006) peak fish catch of S. lemuru in Bali Strait Warming year (La Nina 2010) lowest fish catch in Bali Strait El Nino 2015 No consistency ???

Why???

But…..

EL Nino 2006 DAN 2015 (Nasa, 2016)

-0.5

-0.25

0

0.25

0.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

SST RSI STARS

Warm

Cool

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Regi

me

Shift

Inde

x

Ano

CPU

E Le

mur

u

Tahun

S.lemuru RSI STARS

Cool

Regime Shift on S.lemuru

Warm

1 RS

RS detection (Rodinov, 2005): based on sequential T-test for RS (Sequential T-test Analysis of RS/ STAR)

-0.5

-0.25

0

0.25

0.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Regi

me

Shift

Inde

x

Dipo

le M

ode

Inde

x

Tahun

DMI RSI STARS

1 RS

-0.5

-0.25

0

0.25

0.5

-3

-1.5

0

1.5

3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Regi

me

Shift

Inde

x

Nin

o 3.

4

Tahun

NINO 3.4 RSI STARS

Sartimbul et al., 2010: Cool year and peak season of S.lemuru

after 3-month moving average

EL-NINO 2006-2007/ Cool year

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agu Sep Okt Nov Des

SUHU

PER

MUK

AA

N LA

UT (0

C)

FISH

CA

TCH

(KG

)

Cakalang Tongkol

Tuna Baby Tuna

Suhu Permukaan Laut

Case study BPF at South Java

La-Nina 2010-2011/ Warm year

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agu Sep Okt Nov Des

SEA

SUR

FAC

E TE

MPE

RATU

RE (

0 C)

FISH

CA

TCH

(KG

)

Cakalang Tongkol

Tuna Baby Tuna

Suhu Permukaan Laut

Thermocline Variation

1. Three-months time lagged for S.lemuru Modified from Sartimbul et al., (2010): Progress in Oceanography (87), 168-174

Managemen t

Some possible reason of S.lemuru dynamics at Bali Strait and South Java Sea…..

2. Regime shift of S.lemuru cool and warm period 3. Horizontal movement further north or south 4. Vertical migration deeper/shallower thermocline (La Nina/ El

Nino)

Introduction Material and Methods Result and Discussion Conclusion

Summary

1 • SPF composition were vary seasonally. • S.Lemuru (Trans-2), Decapterus spp (NW Monsoon),

and Euthynnus spp (always appear in all seasons)

2

• 14-year fishing trends regime shift from seasonal to inter-annual variation

• Change in fish composition from seasonal to inter-annual

3

• Cold year (ENSO and pIOD) in 2006-2007 S.lemuru reached peak catch

• Warm year (La Nina) in 2010 – 2012, S.lemuru was lowest catch • El Nino 2015 low CPUE of S. lemuru may be caused by behavior

of warmer El Nino

Introduction Material and Methods Result and Discussion Conclusion

Future Task

1 • S.lemuru is important as key species of BPF

lack of juvenile data

2 • Needed to develop new fishing ground map

based on time lag and thermocline information

3 • Needed new climate index for Indonesia

ocean system • Collaborations are welcome!

Thank you for your attention and contribution

• Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education of Indonesia

• Brawijaya University • PICES

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Slide Number 1Outline:Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Data and MethodsRESULT & DISCUSSIONSlide Number 9Slide Number 10Seasonal variationSlide Number 12Standardization parametersSlide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18EL-NINO 2006-2007/ Cool yearLa-Nina 2010-2011/ Warm yearThermocline VariationSlide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25