March /2006 Jerson Kelman Director-General ANEEL ELECTRIC SECTOR FRAMEWORK BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK...
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Transcript of March /2006 Jerson Kelman Director-General ANEEL ELECTRIC SECTOR FRAMEWORK BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK...
March /2006
Jerson KelmanDirector-GeneralANEEL
ELECTRIC SECTOR FRAMEWORK
ELECTRIC SECTOR FRAMEWORK
BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK SEMINAR
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Other Renewable Sources
4.5%
Uranium (U3O8) and Derivatives
1.5%
Mineral Coal and Derivatives
6.8%
Hydraulic Energy and Electricity
12.2%
Natural Gas16.3%
Petroleum and Derivatives
38.0%
Biomass20.7%
Brazilian Energy Matrix% in tePBrazilian Energy Matrix% in teP
Uranium (U3O8) and Derivatives
1.4%
Mineral Coal and Derivatives
6.7%
Hydraulic Energy and Electricity
14.4%Natural Gas
8.9%
Petroleum and Derivatives
39.1%
Biomass29.5%
2004
2015 Estimate
Source: MME / BEN 2005
56.4% Non Renewable
43.6% Renewable
62.6% Non Renewable
37.4% RenewableSource: EPE
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João Pessoa
Jacui
Porto Alegre
Florianópolis
Curitiba
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Paraíbado Sul
Uruguai
Vitória
BeloHorizonte
Itaipu
Grande
Paranaíba
Paraná/Tietê
Campo Grande
Iguaçu
Tocantins
Belém
São Francisco
Parnaíba
São Luís
Teresina
Fortaleza
Natal
Recife
Maceió
Aracajú
SalvadorCuiabá
Goiânia
Brasília
Paranapanema
Argentina
Installed Cap. = 92,865 MW• Hydroelectric = 71,060 MW - 76.5 %• Thermal = 19,798 MW - 21.3 %• Nuclear = 2,007 MW - 2.2 %
Consumption Units = 56.3 million Energy Production = 414.6 TWh/y (55% of South America) Peak Load = 60,910 MW (United Kingdom or Italy)
HV Transmission Lines = 84,512 km
Source: MME/ANEEL (Jan 2006)
Generation: 85% Public sector15% Private
sector Transmission: 26 utilities (15 private) Distribution: 64 utilities
80% private sector
Brazilian Electricity System OverviewBrazilian Electricity System Overview
4
Brazilian Electricity Mixin TWh (2005)
Source: MME / BEN 2005 / EPE
43.60 Non Renewable
291.81 Renewable
5
Water Resources Usepriority to the national policy on energy
Installed capacity in Brazil: 76.5% hydroelectric source Centralized and optimized dispatch
Cost-effective operation and safety in supply Robust transmission network
Percentage of potential hydroelectric use:100
83
64 61 6055
4537
21 18 1611 6 4 1
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
France
Germany
Japan
Norway
USA
Switzland
Italy
Canada
BRAZIL
India
Colombia
China
Russia
Peru
Indonesia
Congo
6
December 2002 December 2005
SITUATION AFTER THE ENERGY CRISIS
• Market retraction
• Supply excess
• Self-dealing
•No requirement of environmental license for
concessions
• 27.000 MW installed (1996- 2002)
NEW SECTOR MODEL
• Take up of planning
• Expansion monitoring
• End of Self–Dealing
• New power plants auctions with environmental
license
• 11.000 MW INSTALLED (2003-2005)
2006 – previsions• Addition of 6.6 thousand MW • Auction of 7.8 thousand MW of new power plants
Electricity Generation Overview
7
Energy Negotiated (MW average)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MW
ave
rage
Existing Energy Auctions New Energy Auction
Energy Auctions Results
Source: CCEE
1,287,409,824 MWh – US$ 39,1 bi
564,600,816 MWh – US$ 29,6 bi
Total 1.852,010,640 MWh – US$ 68,7 bi
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Energy Auctions Results
100% 100% 100% 98,8% 94,3% 94,7%
0%10%
20%30%40%
50%60%70%80%
90%100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Contracted Power Market
Power Purchase Agreements Existing plants: US$ 39 bi New plants: US$ 29,6 bi Total: US$ 68,7 bi
Medium Price (US$/MWh)
41.27 36.14
32.81 29.27 25.00
50.92 55.55 55.28
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Begging of Supply
US
$/M
Wh
Existing Energy Auctions New Energy Auction
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Generation
Free Consumers Captive
ConsumersFree Consumers
Distribution
CCE****
Transmission
CCE
Distribution Distribution Tariff ***Tariff ***
Service Revenue
TUST**TUST**TUSD *TUSD *
* TUSD - * TUSD - Distribution network charge + taxes
** TUST – Distribution network charge + taxes***Distribution Tariff – Energy + TUSD***Distribution Tariff – Energy + TUSD
****CCE – Power Purchase Agreement
TUSTTUST
TUSTTUST
10
Institutional Roles of thePower Sector
Policies and directives:- National Congress- National Council of Energy Policy – CNPE – approval by the
President of the Republic- Chamber of Infra-structure Policies of the Government
Council
Planning and assurance of the balance between supply and demand:
- Ministry of Mines and Energy – MME
Research and studies for the planning of the energy sector- Energy Research Company - EPE
Regulatory Body and Delegation of Power- Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency – ANEEL
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Institutional Roles of thePower Sector
Overview, control and operation of the systems:National Operator of the Power System – ONS
Monitoring and evaluation to assure the reliability and security of the supply:
Electric Sector Monitoring Committee – CMSE
Accounting and clearing Chamber of Commercialization of Electric Power – CCEE
Execution and service delivery to the costumers:Entities G, T, D e C
FOCUS: Public InterestFOCUS: Public Interest
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ANEEL
• Resonable tariffs • Quality of service• Guarantee of rights
•Adequate remuneration•Contracts honored•Predictable and clear rules
• Strategic interests• Development model• Budget balance
Universal service
Consumers/society
Government Agents
ANEEL’s Challenge
13
Federal Federal GovernmentGovernment
Federal Federal GovernmentGovernment
Draft of LawDraft of LawDraft of LawDraft of Law
Provisory Provisory ActAct
Provisory Provisory ActAct
National National CongressCongressNational National
CongressCongress
Draft of LawDraft of LawDraft of LawDraft of Law
Law Law Law Law Decree Decree Decree Decree
ANEEL ANEEL ANEEL ANEEL
Technical Technical Discussion Discussion Technical Technical
Discussion Discussion Public Hearing Public Hearing Public Hearing Public Hearing Official Public Official Public Position of ANEELPosition of ANEEL
Official Public Official Public Position of ANEELPosition of ANEELRegulatoryRegulatoryRegulatoryRegulatory
Regulatory Process
Monitoring and ControlMonitoring and Control
MediationMediation
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ATTRIBUTIONS
Monitoring the performance of the power sector
AUDITINGAUDITING
Where necessary - following the legal framework and specific policiesREGULATORYREGULATORY
Guide and advise – enforce penalties when unavoidable
Dispute settlementMEDIATIONMEDIATION
Delegation of authority (*)
Energy auctions
Auctions for new enterprises (G/T)(*)
Authorization(*)
(*) Delegation of authority by Federal Government, through MME, responsible to assure the supply of electricity
15
Decision-making independence
Administrative, financial and property management autonomy
Directors have a 4 year mandate – nominated by the
President, approved by the Senate
Directors cannot be fired without good cause
“Quarantine”(4 months)
Decisions are made by the Board of Directors (5)
No hierarchy subordination
Public Directors meeting
Regulation supported by the Law 9.784/99
Clarity, Transparency and Publicity of the Acts
Characterization of ANEEL
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External control
Consumer Advocate - (organized by the Civil Society)
Legislative Body
• Senate• Public Hearings (~70)• Request information • National Accounting Tribunal
Judiciary (Review of the acts)
Public Ministry
Executive Body• Secretariat of Federal Control
• Contract Management
• Fulfillment of PPA goals
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Regulator’s challenges
Achieve autonomy
Skilled and adequately paid in-house staff
Reduce asymmetry of information
Completion of the new regulation model
To support and enhance energy policies, to
identify improvements and to fill gaps
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To be recognized as a “State Institution” that takes care of public interest
To look for continual improvement of ANEEL
To strive for the reduction of charges and tariffs
To consolidate the process of Periodic Tariff Review (develop guidelines for the basis of cost recovery)
To guarantee the consumers rights and take care of the compliance of the obligations and the rights of agencies
Regulator’s challenges
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Legal, institutional and macroeconomic stability
Environmental Licensing
Tariffs compatible with:
Investments and operational costs
Quality of the service
Capacity of payment by the consumers
Necessary factors to attract investments
Thank you for your attention!
www.aneel.gov.br
Phone: (+55) 61 2192-8603
Fax: (+55) 61 2192-8711