Mapping the Aged Society: A Cartographic Approach to Population Ageing and Health Service Demand

Authors:Hamish Robertson

Nick NicholasAndrew Georgiou

Andrew HayenJoanne Travaglia

Contents

• Introduction

• Social problems are always spatial

• Mapping as policy science

• Variable patterns of ageing

• The potential of visualistion

• Spatial dashboarding ageing and disease

• Discussion

• Conclusion

Introduction

• Population ageing as a complex and multi-level change phenomenon – global, regional, national, local etc

• A consequence of past actions and decisions – only two important variables – falling fertility and rising LE

• An inherently spatial phenomenon because all social issues exhibit spatial patterns

• Complexity because change can occur very quickly and information is often limited e.g. dementia and sub-type estimates

• Systemic responses require not only temporal but spatial perspectives

Social Problems are Always Spatial

Social Policy is Spatial Now

Dr Brenner and Camden’s ‘Frequent Flyers’

24.121.1

20.719.9

19.219.018.8

18.518.017.9

17.717.617.517.517.517.517.3

17.017.017.0

16.516.5

15.514.9

14.214.014.013.813.7

12.912.8

12.011.8

10.39.5

8.67.4

7.06.4

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Japan

Italy

Portugal

Euro area (17 countries)

European Union (27 countries)

Estonia

G7

Spain

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Norway

Australia

Luxembourg

United States

Iceland

Korea

Chile

Turkey

Mexico

OECD 2012 Populations Aged 65+ (%)

Australia’s Projected Growth in People Aged 65+ Source: ABS, B Series Projection

Data from the National Disability, Ageing and Carers Survey

Source: ABS, 2012

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

UNWEIGHTED NUMBER

1 Dementia

2 Arthritis and related disorders

3 Other long term condition

4 Stroke

5 Back problems (dorsopathies)

6 Congenital malformations, deformations andchromosomal abnormalities

7 Depression/mood affective disorders (excludingpostnatal depression)

8 Head injury/acquired brain damage

9 Deafness/hearing loss

10 Leg/knee/foot/hip damage from injury/accident

11 Other diseases of the nervous system

12 Osteoporosis

13 Alzheimer's disease

14 Parkinson's disease

15 Deafness/hearing loss—noise induced

16 Phobic and anxiety disorders

17 Deafness/hearing loss—congenital

18 Other mental and behavioural disorders

19 Schizophrenia

20 Asthma

Mapping the Ageing Society

Melbourne 65-84 in 2011

Melbourne Aged 65-84 2026

Melbourne Aged 65-84 2026 with current hospitals

Melbourne Aged 65-84 in 2026 with Current Hospitals and Residential Care Facilities

Melbourne Graph of Aged 65-84 in 3D Format

Visualisation – Data, Temporality and Geography

• Dashboards are already common in many healthcare environments –not always highly interactive

• Spatial dashboards limited application but emerging in and through visualisation software packages such as Tableau

• As ‘big data’ environment expands visual applications become more important and practical

• Flexibility of visualization is an important issue in managing responses –if not this option then what and why?

• Spatial information includes addresses, locations, boundaries, territories, formal and informal geography etc

• Scale a major factor in coping with complexity and scale across interconnected systems

Building a spatial dashboard

Discussion

• Policy responses need to better incorporate geographic scale and complexity to be relevant and realistic

• Visual methods (built using quality data) support both evidence-based strategies and engagement by mixed audiences

• Changes occur over time and in places so variability is a constant in population ageing and its consequences

• Growth of the ‘big data’ paradigm requires improved visual methods

• Scale can be included as a factor in existing visual technologies

• Varying scenarios can be modelled and mapped i.e. implications before implementation

• Many societies are on their way to ‘hyper-ageing’ with inevitable spatial consequences e.g. rural depopulation/aged isolation etc

Conclusion• Population ageing is a rising global demographic phenomenon and

Australia is mid-stream in OECD rankings• Ageing adds a new level of complexity to health, illness, social policy and

systemic responses• Collective and individual ageing are deeply geographical -> spatial, place

and relationality of ageing and services for older people• Visualisation methods are growing in sophistication, scope and

acceptance• Society including social inequalities are expressed spatially and require

spatially relevant responses• The consequences of failed aged care policies are enormous and we have

a poor record historically (the Poor House, the asylum etc)• Ageing is a spatial phenomenon and requires spatial knowledge and skills• Health and social care policy without geographic analysis are

fundamentally unscientific