Manajemen Risiko Dalam Agribisnis (Kuliah-2)
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Transcript of Manajemen Risiko Dalam Agribisnis (Kuliah-2)
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Risk is the probability that a hazard will turn into adisaster. Vulnerability and hazards are not
dangerous, taken separately. But if they come
together , they become a risk or , in other words,
the probability that a disaster will happen.
Nevertheless, risks can be reduced or
managed. If we are careful about how we
treat the environment, and if we are awareof our weaknesses and vulnerabilities to
existing hazards, then we can take
measures to make sure that hazards do not
turn into disasters.
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1. Production
2. Marketing
3. Financial
4. Legal
5. Human Resource
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1. Production
Risk
Know that production risk is avariation in production level
Agricultural production impliesan expected outcome or yield
Variation in expected outcomeaffects your ability to achieveexpected financial goals
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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Sources of Crop
Production Risk Weather
Insect damage and weed competition
Diseases Interaction with new technology
Weather and the environment
Disease effects in producing calves or finishing
Predators (coyotes, wolves, mountain lions)
Interaction with new technology
Sources of
LivestockProduction Risk
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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Production RiskManagement
Tools
Enterprise diversification
Try different production practices or
practice enterprise diversification by
Growing different crops
Trying combinations of crops and
livestock
Identifying different end points in thesame production process
Growing different types of the same
crop
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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Thinking of starting a new enterprise?
The answers to these questions can helpyou discover any limiting resources you
might encounter
What knowledge and management skillsdo I need?
What are the added labor needs? Where are the markets?
What do your answers tell you?
Production RiskManagement
Tools
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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Crop Insurance
Consider using crop insurance as a tool
to transfer your yield or price risk to
others
Crop insurance works the same way as
car insurance, the greater the coverage,
the greater the premium
Production Risk
ManagementTools
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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The answers to these questions can helpyou determine if youre getting the mostout of your insurance rupiah
What are the costs?
Which type offers the best protection?
How much coverage do I need foradequate cash flow?
Which insurance product will bestcomplement my marketing plan?
What do your answers tell you?
Production RiskManagement
Tools
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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Contract production
Be prepared to commit to deliver a specific
quality and quantity of product
You must meet the contract specifications
Manage the contracted risk with crop
insurance and sound management practices
Production RiskManagement
Tools
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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The answers to these questions can helpyou determine if contract production is asolution for you
What benefits will a production contractprovide?
What flexibility will I give up?
Do I understand the terms of the contractor should I seek legal advice?
What do your answers tell you?
Production RiskManagement
Tools
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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New Technology
Some of the technological advances in
agriculture that have improved the
producers success ratePlanting improvements
Crop production chemicals
Harvesting equipment
Benefits of using new technology include
Lower production costs
Improved environmental quality
Higher quality product
Production RiskManagement
Tools
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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New technology benefits for livestock
producers include
Advances in disease control
Improved feed supplements
Better management practices
Production RiskManagement
Tools
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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Once again, knowing the answers to thesequestions can help you determine if usingnew technology is a useful production tool
for youWhat is the economic benefit of adopting a
new technology?
Does the adoption of a new technology
reduce my risk? Is crop insurance a better risk than adopting
a new technology?
What do your answers tell you?
Production RiskManagement
Tools
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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Year Crop A(EA)
Crop B(Eb)
1 136 862 88 643 104 924 148 1025 62 826 176 787 192 628 142 909
48
94
10 34 60
Mean (E) 113 81Standard
deviation (V) 54,34 14,67Variance(V2) 2.953,11 215,33
Correlation coeff
0.071
nEE
n
i
i /)(
1
)1/()(1
22
nEEV
n
i
i
2
1
2
1
)(
Vn
EE
V
n
i
i
Subjective approach:Probable future trends
- Demand increase
- New government regulations
- Increasing energy price
- Etc
Statistical approach :
E
V
CV
1. Production Risk and Production Risk Management Tools
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2. Marketing Risk and Marketing Risk Management Tools
Outside forces that affect prices andmarket risk are
Weather
Actions of US and foreign gov.
Farm programs
Regulations
Embargoes
Trade tariffs
Marketing
Risk
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Personal considerations for handling
marketing risk include
Know your risk comfort level
Improve your current marketing skills
and learn new skills
Develop an integrated management
approach
Develop a marketing plan
Marketing
Risk
2. Marketing Risk and Marketing Risk Management Tools
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Ways you can handle marketing risk
Reduce risk by avoiding higher-risk ventures Shift risk to others
Maintain flexibility
Marketing
Risk
2. Marketing Risk and Marketing Risk Management Tools
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Reduce risk and avoid higher-riskventures by
Knowing current market information
Using key business partners
Spreading out sales
Using contract production
Creating and following your business plan
Marketing Risk
Management
Tools
2. Marketing Risk and Marketing Risk Management Tools
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Maintain flexibility by
Timing sales and/or purchase ofoutputs/inputs
Placement where and from whom your
sales/purchases are made
Different forms of sales and input purchase
Marketing RiskManagement
Tools
2. Marketing Risk and Marketing Risk Management Tools
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3- Financial Risk and Financial Risk Management Tools
Other financial risk can be attributed to
Poor planning
Failure to maintain control of the operation
Lack of financial understanding
FinancialRisk
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Cost and availability of debt capital
Money or capital that comes from sourcesoutside the operation, such as bank loans
Work with your lender to create a solid
relationship and reduce your financialrisk when
Theres an increase in interest rates orinterest expenses from variable rate loans
You need to borrow and access credit tomaintain flexibility
FinancialRisk
3- Financial Risk and Financial Risk Management Tools
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Ability to meet cash flow needs
Typical financial obligations include
Production expenses
Debt payment
Property taxes
Insurance
Family living expenses
Address with cash flow planning and
budgeting
FinancialRisk
3- Financial Risk and Financial Risk Management Tools
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Your ability to increase owner equity in
your operation is an indication of basic
business profitability
If you notice a downward-trend in your
owner equity over time, you are seeing a
lack of profitability in the business
FinancialRisk
3- Financial Risk and Financial Risk Management Tools
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Manage your financial risk by
Determining your acceptable risk levels
Putting controls and tracking
mechanisms in place to maintain your
acceptable risk level
ManagingFinancial Risk
3- Financial Risk and Financial Risk Management Tools
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Other ways to manage your financial
risk are
Budgeting cash inflows and outflows
Maintaining accurate and up-to-date
financial records
Conducting a basic financial analysis
Developing annual financial statements
ManagingFinancial Risk
3- Financial Risk and Financial Risk Management Tools
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Principle of
increasing
risk
3- Financial Risk and Financial Risk Management Tools
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Legal risks include
Business structure Contracts
Tort liability
Statutory compliance
Legal Risk
4 - Legal Risk
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Business structure has many forms Corporations
Limited partnership
Limited-liability companies
Partnership
Sole proprietorship
Trusts
They all have an effect on Income and property taxes
Estate planning and transfers
Legal Risk
4 - Legal Risk
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Contractual agreements are part of theday-to-day management of mostagricultural businesses
The types of contracts that can affectyour legal risk are
Financial agreements
Leases or crop-share arrangements
Insurance instruments
Labor
Legal Risk
4 - Legal Risk
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Tort liability includes acts of
Negligence or intentionally causeddamage related to
Farm injury
Farm discharges
Non-disclosure of knownfarmstead hazards
Consult a legal professional toensure you have adequateprotection against this type of legalrisk
Legal Risk
4 - Legal Risk
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Statutory compliance is defined as
meeting regulations imposed bygovernment agencies on your operation.
Statutory compliance risks arise from the
failure to follow regulations governingthe operation of your business
Legal Risk
4 - Legal Risk
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You need to know that statutory
compliance involves
Tax reporting and payment
Wage and worker safety
Nondiscrimination
Pesticide/herbicide use regulations
Failure to comply can result in severe fines
or other penalties
Legal Risk
4 - Legal Risk
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You can manage your legal risk better by
Obtaining professional assistance
Purchasing additional liability insurance
Contacting an attorney
Hiring an accountant or CPSA
Understanding the legal risks
4 - Legal Risk
Managing
Legal Risk
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Labor risks you should become familiarwith include
Work that is not done, is done poorly,
or not on time
High indirect labor costs can beincurred
Potential conflict with employees
Laws and regulations
Worker safety regulations
5 - Human Resource Risk
Human
Resource Risk
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You can further reduce human resource riskby
monitoring your operations hiringpractices
Always
Check personnel qualifications
Follow the hiring laws for your state
Also have plans for
Personnel transitions
Estate transfer
5 - Human Resource Risk
Human
Resource Risk
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5 - Human Resource Risk
Human
Resource Risk