Long-term Forecasting Problems of the Latvian

Energy Sector DevelopmentM. oec. E. Zeberga, Prof., Dr. habil. ing. V. Zebergs,

Prof., Dr. habil. ing. N. Zeltins

Institute of Physical Energetics of Latvian Academy of Science 

Aizkraukles St.21, Riga LV-1006, Latvia

Phone: (371)7558636 or 9363105; Fax (371) 7557671

E-mail: zeltinsh@edi.lv

General Data (2000)Notes:1.     GDP in US$ (1995) off. – Official Bank Exchange Rate Average Per Year,2.     ppp – Purchasing Power Parities,3.     TPES – Total Primary Energy Supply,4.     /C – Per Capita5.     *19956.     ** Final Energy

Population (in million 106) 2.37

GDP 109 US$ off. 7.16GDP 109 US$ ppp 16.8GDP/c US$ ppp 7088TPES [PJ] 157TPES/c [PJ] x 10-6 66Electricity Supply [TWh]* 4.93

Electricity/c [MWh]** 2.08

Natural Resources Forests – cover 45% of the state’s territory, timber product reserves increase per year – 16.5 mill. M3. Swamps – cover

4.9% of the state’s territory, peat bogs form 0.4% of the state’s territory. Water resources – there are more than 12,400 rivers. Longest river in Latvia– Gauja, 452 km; Largest river – Daugava, total length of 1005 km: 352 km in Latvia. 8.7% of Latvia’s territory has been classified as specially protected

areas. Highest point: Gaizinkalns, 311.6 metres.Latvia’s weather is governed by a moderate oceanic climate,

with pronounced cyclone activity and a considerable amount of precipitation. Summer: June - august. Winter: December - February. The average temperature in summer is 15.8°C (in the capital 16.1°C), the average temperature in winter is –

4.5°C (in the capital –3.8°c). The average precipitation amount in summer is 195 mm, in winter - 116 mm.

Basic Goals As it moves into the 21st century, Latvia is clearly on a path to

convergence with the EU. For Latvia, membership in the European union and NATO are not ends in themselves, but simply means to accomplish a greater goal – participation

in a united Europe, whole and free. Latvia has sought membership in NATO in order to make its contribution to

the formation of European security policy. In the development of Latvia’s security policies, Latvian

governments have focused on regional co-operation and European integration, while building a special relationship

with the united states in order to strengthen the transatlantic aspect of its security policy.

GDP in Year 2000 Average Prices Latvian National 1 lats (LVL) = 100 Centimes =

1,69 EUR. Year GDP bill. Lats GDP per capita

(th. Lats)Inhabitant milj.

people

1980 4.20 1.67 2.51

1985 4.99 1.93 2.59

1990 6.31 2.37 2.66

1991 5.52 2.08 2.65

1992 3.74 1.43 2.62

1993 3.32 1.29 2.57

1994 3.39 1.34 2.53

1995 3.36 1.35 2.49

1996 3.48 1.41 2.47

1997 3.77 1.55 2.43

1998 3.95 1.64 2.41

1999 4.06 1.70 2.39

2000 4.34 1.83 2.37

2001 4.86 1.98 2.36

Dinamic of GDP

4,24,99

6,31

3,364,34

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Bill

. L

VL

Consumption of Energy Resources in Latvia

Consumption of Energy Resources

(th. tce)

1999 2000 2010 2002

Energy consumption – totalof which:Natural gas and liquefied gasLight fuel products&other oil products Heavy fuel, oil shaleFirewood, peat, coke&other fuelCoalElectrical power (HPS, wind generators and imported from abroad)

5730 

14951335900

1300120580

5259 

15601366406

126794

566

5740 

19801313269

1475123580

6466 

18471610233

208499

593

29%

26%8%

24%

2%11%

Gas Oil products

Heavy fuel, oil shale Firewood, peat, coke&other fuel

Coal Electrical power

Structure of TPES (2000)

Electricity Supply in Latvia

Components of electricity supply (billion kWh)

1999 2000 2001 2002

Total electricityGeneration – totalof which:Large scale HPPCHPBlock stations&other equipmentSmall HPSWind generatorsImport of electricity – total

6.0654.110

 2.7441.2220.1280.0140.0021.955

5.9224.136

 2.7991.1630.1500.0200.0041.786

6.1634.280

 2.8011.2460.1980.0320.0031.883

6.323.98

 2.431.240.260.030.012.35

Production Electricity by Latvian HPP

Year Total electricity consumption TWh

Production of HPP

TWh %

1995 6.2 3.2 52

1996 6.4 2.2 34

1997 6.3 3.5 56

1998 6.3 4.1 65

1999 6.1 3.1 51

2000 5.9 3.2 54

2001 6.2 3.1 50

2002 6.3 2.8 44

The Electric energy produced by the Latvian HPP

012345

Years

Pro

du

cti

on

TW

H

0

50

100

Production of HPP Electricity import

%

Latvian Primary Energy Balance (2000)

(th. toe) Solid Liquid Gas Hydro RENs Other Total

Production 1008 1 - 240 0.172 - 1249

Imports 114 1134 1116 - - - 2364

Exports -172 -31 - - - - -203

Consumption 950 1104 1116 240 0.172 - 3410

Stocks - 69 - - - - -

Electricity Production (2000)

Specification  

Generation [TWh] 4.1

Coal -

Oil 0.1

Gas 1.2

Nuclear -

Hydro 2.8

Other -

Imports (+) +2.1

Exports (-) -0.3

Consumption 5.9

Installed Capacity and Peak Demand

(2000) Specification  

Power Stations [MW] 2027

Coal -

Oil -

Gas 515

Hydro 1510

Other 2

Peak Demand [MW] 1226

75%

0,1%25%

Gas Hydro Others

Installed Power Capacity (2000)

Dynamic of Consumption Gas in Latvia

Year Bill. m3

1990 2.89

1995 1.16

1996 0.89

1997 1.27

1998 1.25

1999 1.10

2000 1.32

2,89

1,16

0,89

1,27 1,25 1,11,32

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

Bill

.m3

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1990 2000

Year

Dynamic of Gas Consumption

The UGS Capacities in Eastern Europe [in Bill. Cubic M (109 M3)]

 Country Existing Perspective

Latvia 2.12 50 (8 UGS)

Poland 0.56 5.23

Slovakia 1.60 4.39

Hungary 1.92 2.52

Czech Republic 20.1 1.20

Romania 0.57 1.45

Slovenia 0.07 0.07

Bulgaria 0.60 0.60

Total Consumption for Heat Production (2000)

Fuel %

Gas 65

HFO 16

Wood 15

Coal 2

Other 2

Total 100

65%

16%

15%2%2%

Gas HFO Wood Coal Others

TPES Consumption for Heat Production

Dynamic of Heat Consumption in Latvia (PJ)

1990 1995 2000

DHS 70 55 31

Local 40 20 19

Total 110 75 50

Local

DHS

020406080

100120

1990 1995 2000

Dynamic of Heat Consumption

Emission in Latvia in Year 2000 (milj. T.)

Emission Summary Burning energy and transport

fuel

CO2 7.1 7.0

CH4 0.124 0.025

N2O 0.004 0.003

SO2 0.018 0.018

NOx 0.038 0.037

CO 0.283 0.251

Emissions Dynamics in the energetics Sector

Emission Unit 1990 1995 2000

CO2 Milj. t 22.9 10.0 6.9

CH4 th.t 63.7 29.1 25.1

N2O th.t 1.1 0.3 0.3

SO2 th.t 118 59 18

NOx th.t 102 42 37

CO th.t 499 436 251

The Maximum Limits of All the Sources of Emissions Allowed for Latvia in 2010

have been fixed by the Regulation of the Latvian Cabinet of Ministers No.33 (2002) Regulations on the total maximum allowable emissions in the air in the country:     sulphur dioxide 107 thousand tons     nitrogen dioxide 84 thousand tons     non-methane volatile organic substances 136 thousand tons     ammonia 44 thousand tonsIn the period from 1998 till 2000 the level of the above-mentioned emissions was significantly lower than the level allowed by the Göteborg protocol.

Emissions Dynamics

10784

010

020

0

1990 1995 2000 2010Year

th.t

EU (Gōteberg) limits SO2 EU (Gōteberg) limits NOx

SO2 NOx

21

05

10152025

1990 1995 2000 2010Year

Milj

.t

UNO (Kioto) limits CO2

Emissions Dynamics

Legal Regulations: Security of Supply and Creation of Oil

Product Reserves On August 14, 2001 the Cabinet of Ministers adopted the Concept on Formation of the State Oil Product Reserve. According to the Concept, a package of regulations and amendments to the current legislation had to be drafted. The Cabinet of Ministers on January 29, 2002 adopted Regulations No.40 “On Statutes of the Energy Crisis Management Centre”, on March 12, 2002, Regulations No.106 “On the procedure of energy supply and fuel sale to users during energy crisis” and on March 26, 2002 Regulations No.138 “On the procedure of creation and use of oil product stock”. On May 28, 2002 the Cabinet of Ministers adopted Regulations No. 218 “On Energy Information System”

Legal Regulations:electricity Sector

   The Energy Policy in the sector of electricity was adopted in the Cabinet of Ministers on September 11, 2001. On the basis of the amendments to the Energy Law adopted in the Saeima on May 10, 2001, the Cabinet of Ministers on January 8, 2002 adopted Regulations No. 9 “Requirements for co-generation plants and the procedure of setting the price for purchase of excess electricity”. On January 15, 2002 the Cabinet of Ministers adopted Regulations No.28 “ On the total capacity for installations in 2002 and specific volumes of each type of electricity production, if renewable energy sources are used in electricity generation” and Regulations No. 29 “The procedure of installation and dislocation of electricity production capacities if renewable energy sources are used for electricity generation”. On December 24, 2002 the Cabinet of Ministers approved Regulations No.713 “On annual consumption of electricity to obtain the status of a qualified user in 2003”. In 2003 the status of the qualified user may be obtained by energy users with annual electricity consumption of not less than 20 million kWh per year. Draft regulations “On total volumes of capacity installation in 2003 and concrete volumes of each type of electricity production is renewable energy sources are used for electricity generation” has been developed and submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers

Legal Regulations:gas Sector

The Cabinet of Ministers during the meeting on October 23, 2001 accepted the concept developed by the Ministry of Economics “On liberalisation of the gas market in the Republic of Latvia in connection with the Directive 98/30/EC of the European Parliament and Council “Concerning common rules for the internal market in natural gas”. The aim of the concept is to encourage competition in the area of natural gas supply in Latvia and to harmonise the regulatory documents with the requirements of the European Union. The Action Plan to implement the concept has been developed.

Electricity Tariffs (LVL/kWh), Tariffs Are Listed Without

VAT.   1999 2000 2001 2002

Average electricity sales tariffResidents, users of a united tariffNight tariffDay tariff

0.03028

0.0330510.025740.03678

0.03028

0.0330510.025740.03678

0.03028

0.0330510.025740.03678

0.03028

0.0330510.025740.03678

Future Energy Demand: Electricity

  Unit 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Electricity consumption

TWh 10.2 5.9 7.2 8.8 10.7

Peak demand

MW 1685 1226 1440 1760 2140

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 200 2010 2020 2030

Year

TW

h

0

1000

2000

3000

MW

Electricity consumpti Peak demand

Energy Demand

Primary Energy Demand

  Unit 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Primary demand

M toe

8.65 3.74 4.38 5.02 5.35

  PJ 349 157 184 211 225

Future Energy Demand: General Data

  2000 2010 2020 2030

Population (in million) 2.37 2.36 2.38 2.46

GDP 109 US$ off 7.16 11.3 16.7 22.4

Total Primary Energy Supply [PJ]

157 184 211 225

TPES/c [PJ] 66 78 89 92

Electricity Supply [TWh] f

4.93 6.05 7.39 8.99

Electricity/c [MWh] (final energy)

2.08 2.56 3.11 3.67

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

%

GDP Electricity TPES

Electricity and TPES Demand

Energy Supply of Electricity Production

Electricity (TWh) 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Generation (total) 6.7 4.1 6.69 8.82 10.95

Coal - - - 2.1 1.8

Oil 1.0 0.1 - - -Gas 0.9 1.2 4.2 4.2 2.4

Nuclear - - - - 4.2Hydro 4.6 2.8 2.44 2.46 2.48

Other 0.2 - 0.05 0.06 0.07

Imports (+) +3.9 +2.1 +0.51

- -

Exports (-) -0.4 -0.3 - -0.02 -0.25

Consumption (total) 10.2 5.9 7.2 8.8 10.7

Prognoses of the Possible Technologies of Base Capacity Electric Power Stations

in LatviaElectricity production technology at primary energy sources

Periods

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030

after 2030

Natural gas + + + - - -

Coal - + + + +

Nuclear energy - - - + + +Evaluation of technological possibilities: + + very high; + high; - low;

- - very low

Global Energy Consumption Forecast in The 21st Century

IIASA Options, Winter 1998

Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Not Included Reduplicate Gas Turbines in Pick Power Plant for

Reservation Pick of Hydropower Planning by Low Water in 2010-700MW, 2020-900MW and in 2030-900MW

Specification Unit 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Power station MW 2017 2027 2145 2460 3750

Coal MW - - - 300 300

Oil MW 390 - - - -

Gas MW 125 515 600 600 600

Nuclear MW - - - - 600

Hydro MW 1502 1510 1520 1530 1540

Other MW - 2 25 30 35

Peak demand MW 1685 1226 1440 1760 2140

Primary Energy Balance (Mtoe) Primary Energy Supply 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Indigenous ProductionNuclear Hydro Other (solid fuel)Total production

 -

0.3870.3750.762

 -

0.241.011.25

 -

0.2431.1

1.343

 -

0.2451.2

1.445

 0.3620.2471.31.909

Imports (+)CoalOil Natural GasOther (electricity)Total imports

 0.614.492.450.347.89

 0.066

1.20 (2001) 1.090.182.72

 0.071.401.630.043.24

 0.491.601.69

-3.78

 0.431.801.43

-3.66

Exports (-)Coal Oil Natural GasNuclear Hydro OtherTotal exports

 -------

 -

0.031---

0.20.231

 -----

0.20.2

 -----

0.2020.202

 -----

0.220.22

TPES [PJ]TPES [Mtoe]

349.028.65

157.083.74

1844.383

2115.023

2255.349

The Proposal for Co-operation in Research Project (I)

Integration of Post Transition Countries in European Free Energy Market:

        Existing national and regional energy market in Central and Easter Europe        European union (EU) agenda for implementation free energy market        Integration in European free energy market        Promotion off CEE countries power system competition possibilities        Possibilities to protection national energy market

The Proposal for Co-operation in Research Project (II) Joint Researches of Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving

Strategy of Post Transition Countries Central and

Eastern Europe         Application of mathematical models for the economic and ecological assessment of the gains from efficient and rational use of energy.         Energy efficiency and energy saving in industry and the sector of public buildings, and innovative technologies for their raising.         Energy efficiency and energy saving in the sector of public buildings.         The study of the physical processes and simulation for raising energy efficiency.         Significance of the renewable and local energy resources for raising energy efficiency and the development of balanced energetics.         Economic and institutional methods and mechanisms for the management of energy efficiency and energy saving programmes.