LightCounting Dinner Seminar of the Industry and...2009 . 2010 : Content Providers 内容服务商...

LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.

LightCounting Dinner Seminar

March 7, 2012

3/12/2012 1


Agenda日程 • Vladimir Kozlov, – CEO and Founder, LightCounting, LightCounting CEO 和创始人 State of the optical communications industry and Market outlook for 2012.光通信产业状况和

2012年市场展望 • Matt Traverso – Product Marketing, Cisco, Cisco产品市场部

High-speed interconnects from the data center router to the Metro loop and trends in optical transceivers. 从数据中心路由器到城域网的高速互联和光收发器趋势

• Brad Smith – Senior Vice President, LightCounting LightCounting高级副总裁 The data tsunami on the horizon. 40G/100G transceivers, AOCs, embedded modules, direct attach cables and 10GBASE-T爆炸式流量需求--山雨欲来。 40G/100G 收发器，AOC,嵌入式模块、有源电缆和10GBASE-T

• Brad Booth – Distinguished Engineer, Networking CTO Office at Dell知名工程师 Dell 网络CTO High-speed interconnects trends and issues linking servers, switches and routers in the data center 高速网络互联的发展趋势和问题与数据中心的服务器、交换机以及路由器的发展息息相关 • Scott Schube – Senior Market Analyst, LightCounting LightCounting 高级市场分析师 Review of OFC show floor discoveries – CANCELLED OFC现场热点评述（取消）（下周将以实时通信的形式发布） (OFC highlights will be covered in a newsletter next week)

3/12/2012 2


LightCounting Team LightCounting团队

• Marihette Fourie – Director of Sales and Marketing • Melody Rao – Sales Manager in Asia • Renee Isley – Business Manager • Brad Smith – Executive VP and Chief Analyst • Vladimir Kozlov – CEO and founder • Lilah Gonen – Analyst • Open Position – Senior Analyst

3/12/2012 3


State of the Industry and Market Outlook for 2012行业状况和2012年市场展望

Vladimir Kozlov March 2012

3/12/2012 4


The Industry Supply Chain产业链

3/12/2012 5

$, €, ¥

Products产品

CapEx资本支出

Product sales, 产品销售 Port count 端口数

Sales, ASPs,销售额 Units 平均售价和个数

Units个数

运营商内容服务商企业/大学


Average Non-GAAP Net Income Across the Supply Chain ($ millions) 产业链上的平均非公认会计原则净收入

（百万美元计）

3/12/2012 6

Companies公司 2007 2008 2009 2010

Content Providers内容服务商 $5,191 $6,425 $9,508 $11,538

Service Providers运营商 $6,033 $2,796 $5,423 $6,864 System Vendors系统商 $332 -$815 $698 $664 IC Vendors IC供应商 $732 $710 $608 $1,692 OC and Transceiver Vendors OC和收发器供应商 $24 $34 $17 $86

FCI, Molex, Tyco Fabrinet,

Sanmina

HiSense HG Genuine

Optical component and module vendors are under increasing pressure

Silicon Photonics


Service Provider Revenue and CapEx运营商收益和资本支出

3/12/2012 7

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

+7.5%

$120

$130

$140

$150

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

+5%

Revenue CapEx

CapEx Trends: 资本支出趋势 • Less construction 更少基建 • Less copper 更少铜线 • More wireless 更多无线 • More optics 更多光缆

收益资本支出


Service Provider Business运营商面面观

3/12/2012 8

• Regulations: Maintaining Scale, but avoiding Monopoly政策法规：保持规模，但避免垄断

• AT&T, T-Mobile USA – “no deal” AT & T 和T-Mobile- 合并—没有实现 • China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom • 中国移动、中国电信和中国联通

• Network Neutrality 网络公平性 • FTTx deployments, Google FTTx 部署、 Google • Government funded deployments 政府出资的部署

• New business models developed by Content Providers may be future business opportunities for service providers 内容服务商开发的新运营模式有可能是运营商的未来生意机会

• Salesforce.com, Netflix, Facebook, Rackspace • Verizon acquires Terremark - a cloud computing company and challenges Netflix with an alternative video on demand service Verizon 并购了Terremark –一个云计算公司。提供可以实时选择的视频点播服务。这对Netflix是一个挑战。


Telecom Equipment Suppliers 电信设备商

3/12/2012 9

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Reve

nue

($B)

ZTE

NSN

Huawei

Ericsson

Alcatel Lucent

Company 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % Alcatel Lucent $24.9 $25.2 $21.3 $21.2 $22.0 4% Ericsson $28.2 $31.2 $27.5 $28.4 $34.8 22% Huawei $12.6 $18.3 $21.8 $28.7 $31.5 10% NSN $18.9 $22.8 $17.6 $15.9 $19.7 23% ZTE $4.6 $6.4 $8.8 $10.4 $12.5 21% Total $89.2 $104.0 $97.0 $104.6 $120.5 15% Change % 17% -7% 8% 15%


Datacom Equipment Suppliers数据设备商

3/12/2012 10

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

2008 2009 2010 2011

Reve

nue

($B)

Brocade

Cisco

Dell

EMC

HP

IBM

Juniper

Company 2008 2009 2010 2011 % Brocade $1.6 $2.1 $2.1 $2.1 2% Cisco $20.8 $17.6 $20.9 $21.8 4% Dell $7.0 $8.2 $9.9 $10.3 4% EMC $8.0 $7.0 $8.8 $10.1 14% HP $18.5 $15.8 $19.9 $21.6 9% IBM $11.0 $10.5 $11.7 $12.4 6% Juniper $2.7 $2.6 $3.3 $3.5 7% Total $69.5 $63.8 $76.5 $81.7 7% Change -8% 20% 7%


Optical Transceiver Sales 光收发器销售额

3/12/2012 11

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sale

s ($

M)

+7%

+36% 以美元计

+11%


Forecast Methodology预测方法

3/12/2012 12

? Forecast example

real market data

1. Real Sales data provided by suppliers 供应商提供的真实销售数据 2. Forecast model linked to market drivers 根据左右市场的因素进行预

测

预测范例

实际市场数据


Market Data Provided By:市场数据由以下公司提供

• Avago • Civcom • Delta Electronics • eGtran • Emcore • Finisar • Fujitsu • HiSense Broadband • Hitachi Cable • Ignis (Finisar)

• JDS Uniphase • Luxtera (Molex) • Merge Optics (FCI) • NEC • NeoPhotonics • Oclaro • Opnext • Source Photonics • Sumitomo • Zarlink (Tyco)

3/12/2012 13


Sales Data Example 销售数据样本

3/12/2012 14

Ethernet

SONET/SDH


Calculating Network Bandwidth计算网络带宽

3/12/2012 15

0

10

20

30

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Net

wor

k ba

ndw

idth

(a.u

.)

Total bandwidth of transceivers sold pre year前一年所售出的收发器总带宽


Network Bandwidth Growth Rate 网络带宽增长率

3/12/2012 16

Bandwidth = SUM over 5 years (Number of DWDM ports * Data Rate) 带宽=5年以上带宽总量（DWDM端口数*速率）

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Internet traffic growth DWDM network bandwidth growth


2007 Forecast vs. Actual data 2007预测与实际数据

3/12/2012 17

DWDM Market

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2007 Forecast Actual Sales 真实数据 2007预测


Quarterly Sales of DWDM modules DWDM模块季度销售额

3/12/2012 18

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Sales ($M)


Quarterly Sales of SFP+ 10 GigE transceivers SFP+ 10GigE 收发器季度销售额

3/12/2012 19

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Sale

s ($

M)


10 GigE Forecasted and Actual shipments 预测的 10 GigE 收发器销售额与出货量

3/12/2012 20

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2007 Forecast Actual shipments 2009 Forecast 2007年预测实际出货量

2009年所做预测


Global FTTx market全球FTTx市场

3/12/2012 21

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

New FTTH subscribers ONU transceiver shipmentsLaser ans IC chip shipments

新FTTH用户激光器和IC芯片出货量

ONU 收发器出货量


3/12/2012 22

Network Bandwidth Growth 网络带宽增长

Customer Premises Network

Core Network

Net

wor

k Ba

ndw

idth

1 Mbps

20 Mbps 1 Tbps

10 Tbps

“To move up the value chain of profitable services, provider must deploy ample network bandwidth, end to end” Leping Wei, China Telecom 要想提高更有价值的服务，运营商必须提供足够的带宽，点对点---中国电信韦乐平

网络带宽

核心网驻地网

LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.

3/12/2012 54

www.LightCounting.comhttp://www.lightcounting.com/newsletter.cfm


3/12/2012 55


3/12/2012 56

LightCounting.com/newsletter.cfm

Sign up for our free market andnews analysis newsletterLightCounting.com/news.cfm


3/12/2012 57


3/12/2012 58


3/12/2012 59

Our Website:www.lightcounting.com

Headquarters Location:

858 West Park StreetEugene, OR 97401Tel: 408.962.4851Email: [email protected]

[email protected]

LightCounting Dinner Seminar of the Industry and...2009 . 2010 : Content Providers 内容服务商...

Documents

Transcript of LightCounting Dinner Seminar of the Industry and...2009 . 2010 : Content Providers 内容服务商...