GLOBSEC 2020 BRATISLAVA FORUM SUMMARY ( 1w

Let’s Heal the World Together

GLOBSEC 2020 BRATISLAVA FORUM7 - 8 OCTOBER

SUMMARY

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AuthorsHenrieta Kunová, GLOBSECFilip Olšovský, GLOBSEC Lucia Rybnikárová, GLOBSEC Simona Majerníková

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ContentsIntroduction 4

The Post-COVID World 5

Crisis of Multilateralism 8

Advancements of Tomorrow 11

Resilience and Challenges to Democratic Transition 14

GLOBSEC Award Ceremony 18

2020 Policy Initiatives and Reports 22

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IntroductionRemembering what our world looked like a year ago has become an interesting pastime. There is hardly any sphere that was not only affected but radically changed by the COVID-19 pandemic and almost everything is different today. We live, work, travel, shop and – with our masks on – even look differently. What used to be normal several months ago has quickly become just a distant memory in the large pre-new-normal file. Just like the way we used to organise our conferences.

Planning for the 15th edition of GLOBSEC 2020 Bratislava Forum became exactly as challenging as one would think when organising an international conference in the middle of a world pandemic. How does one completely change the plans for a June conference in March? How to invite people from all over the world without risking anyone’s health? We re-scheduled the conference once. We re-scheduled it again. We came up with a hybrid format which combined online panels with the physical conference in Bratislava. And in the end, we managed to organise the GLOBSEC 2020 Bratislava Forum with 100 world class speakers, 20+ partners, 30 main sessions and dozens of side events and bilateral meetings while at all times keeping in line with a strict health protocol.

Reflecting the primary focus of all the panel discussions as well as the major concern of our society, the motto of the 15th edition of GLOBSEC 2020 Bratislava Forum was “Let’s heal the world together”. This slogan not only provided the ideal background for discussions about economies, environment, democracies, disinformation or defence, it also worked as an ideal call for action to wider public. In times which force us to take interest topics we might have otherwise ignored, GLOBSEC 2020 Bratislava Forum opened its arms to a wider audience looking for answers to most important question of the day – how to heal our post-pandemic world.

The various panels of the 15th edition of GLOBSEC 2020 Bratislava Forum took place in both the virtual interactive studio and physical world (Grand Hotel River Park Bratislava) over two days. Rather than coming

up with a chronological summary of the discussions, this summary leads its reader through a useful overview of the topics discussed divided into four main streams: The Post-Covid World, Crisis of Multilateralism, Advancements of Tomorrow and Resilience and Challenges to Democratic Transition.

The aim of the discussions in first stream was clear and obvious – to come with useful answers for our post-Covid reality. How and on what issues should countries co-operate and what are the main challenges that will still occupy our attention once we are finally dealt with COVID-19?

The second part of this summary puts together the most important ideas concerning the topic of multilateralism. A loss of trust in institutions, a constant rise of populism, the rise of China, competition between the U.S. and China, the battle for democracy in Belarus, Cyprus as a battlefield for Turkey and Greece, and a revived conflict in Nagorno Karabakh... These are just some of the challenges which will occupy our attention even after the pandemic.

The third large cluster of topics revolved around the topics of tomorrow. 5G, digitalisation, hybrid threats to democracy, digital sovereignty... plus a more focused look on how the future will look like for large cities and highly populated areas.

Finally, the fourth cluster brings important conclusions from debates about democratic transition. What does the U.S. Election and its result mean for Europe? What is Turkey’s Role in Regional and Global Security and what will the future bring for North Macedonia and Belarus?

The 15th edition of GLOBSEC 2020 Bratislava Forum was without any exaggeration a special one. In a time of global pandemic and against circumstances that stood in a way of organising almost any kind of public gathering, GLOBSEC managed to put together dozens of experts in various fields and asked them the most crucial question of our times – how should we heal our world together? Their answer, systematically structured and organised, is in your hands.

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The Post-COVID World As countries fight the COVID-19 pandemic, one thing has become clear: the post-COVID world will be different in many ways, economically, socially and health wise. No-one will come out of this crisis the same, without losing something. In a post-COVID world, a new international order will be drawn which takes into account lessons learned during the pandemic. Similarly, the role of international institutions will also be critically reviewed. The world emerging from the crisis will call for an urgent need to devise new functional models for society, economy and politics.

“There are several lessons learned that are already staring at us in the face: we need

to make political and financial commitments; we must renew our

determination to be able to stop similar emergencies in the future.”

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the WHO

@martin_klus: “The history of #EU proves that the biggest leaps in progress are done when facing crisis.”

GLOBAL PANDEMIC: LESSONS LEARNED & LOOKING TO THE FUTURE We are facing unprecedented times full of uncertainty. The key, however, is to create a world where we all want to live. There is no single country that has not been affected by the pandemic and many of these countries are facing crises like never before. Nations must act together. The key cure to fighting the pandemic is and will be global solidarity and loyalty. The pandemic has taught us a lesson, and we need to act fast to prevent similar scenarios in the future. The key lesson learned so far is that countries need to reinforce their political and financial commitments to the public. There is a long way ahead of us, but we need to stay humble and trust scientists and experts in order to tackle this crisis. The danger, however, lies in disinformation and hoaxes, which have become one of the biggest challenges to the pandemic. It is, therefore, crucial to provide transparent and honest information to the public based on scientific data and facts.

“Misinformation creates mistrust. We need to have transparency about what

measurements governments are putting in place.”

Francesca Colombo, Head of Health Division, OECD

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FROM FORESIGHT TO RESILIENCE: NAVIGATING OUT OF THE PANDEMICThe pandemic has brought numerous challenges not only to the internal policies of EU member states, but also for the EU itself. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought extraordinary measures and caused a change in the mood amongst the general public - in some EU member states more than in others. Populations, as well as the political elite, feel that this is an existential crisis that has affected not only the area of health and economy, but also the EU as a political project. The pandemic has brought back to the forefront the debate on the future of Europe and the role it wants to play on the global stage. This is closely connected with a future vision of a multispeed Europe with a division of centre and periphery countries, which could mean some countries cooperating more closely and some even being excluded from the debate or decision-making.

The pandemic also brought debate on the revision of EU’s foreign policy, not only in terms of its content, but in terms of institutional setting and decision-making processes. The change of unanimity vote to qualified-majority voting in foreign policy issues has been especially at the centre of this debate. Nevertheless, there is still a considerable clash between EU policies and the mindsets of people. The EU needs to take policy out of bureaucratic processes and bring it back to the people.

“Processes should come to a common understanding; we cannot have

a conversation without realising who we want to be and what we believe in. We

should have a better understanding of each other and what we want to do.”

Florence Gaub, Deputy Director, European Union Institute for Security Studies

THE GREAT RECONCILIATION - ECONOMIC RESCUE AND THE CLIMATE IMPERATIVEWith the global pandemic dominating health, political, economic and social aspects across the globe, it has been hard to maintain a focus on climate issues. Climate change is no longer at the forefront of the public debate, yet the climate crisis continues to progress and delays in action could have detrimental effects for the most vulnerable communities across the globe. The focus needs to be on inclusion; our pathway to decarbonisation must be inclusive and make us more resilient, both economically and socially. There is hope that the political capital for climate change and an impetus to reach the targets set out in the Paris agreement will lead to significant attention in recovery plans. The EU’s commitment to green recovery was translated into the requirement that one third of investment should go towards climate-friendly projects or investments. Nonetheless, more work needs to be done to encourage the financial sector to use green investments, not only for climate change mitigation but also adaptation. When it comes to green finance there should be a preference to invest in green bonds if we want to meet goals and halve our emissions in this decade.

“Five years after the Paris agreement we are anxious to make it work and every day

of delay is bad news for us.”

H.E Mark A. G. Brantley Premier of Nevis and Minister of Foreign

Affairs and Aviation for St. Kitts and Nevis

“We have agreed in the EU a set of rules of what green investments mean, which can

be also applied to public finances”

Martin Hojsík, Member of European Parliament, Committee on the Environment,

Public Health and Food Safety

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FINDING A TREATMENT FOR OUR AILING GLOBAL ECONOMYWe are grappling the worst economic and health problem since World War II. The COVID-19 global recession will be the deepest since 1945-46, and more than twice as significant as the recession associated with the 2008 global financial crisis. According to OECD, there is a serious risk of a 2-3% drop in GDP next year. Market chain value has significantly lowered and there is an urgent need to cooperate and deliver effective solutions that are well coordinated and communicated.

The crisis has brought leaders and experts together, yet the importance lies in a transparent informative infrastructure presented to the public. The key will be to have confidence, keep international markets open and improve the system. The lesson we have learned from this pandemic from a global economy perspective is that cooperation really matters.

“International cooperation is essential. Nationalism and autocracy are not the

answer.”

Amb. Alan Wolff, Deputy Director-General, WTO

“As the next step, the importance lies in coordination and communication,

especially in terms of border controls and free movement of people, but also for the

vaccine.”

Marion Jansen, Trade and Agriculture Director, OECD

THE POST-PANDEMIC GLOBAL (DIS)ORDER - ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF POWER PLAYERS

The post-pandemic international order will be different. One of the major changes that has taken place is the outlook of the U.S. and their position on the global scene. The U.S. is no longer the actor setting international rules, as their focus had to shift towards overcoming difficulties at home. Similarly, the European outlook has focused on fixing internal problems first and only then turning to the outside world. The pandemic changed the world dramatically. There is no interest in a great power competition but rather on putting an increased effort towards multilateralism. The pandemic highlighted the power of unity and the necessity for collective action, with the U.S. and EU needing to work with their allies to overcome difficulties within the geopolitical sphere, such as the rise of China. China has a territorial appetite which should be a concern for everybody and Chinese actions and tendencies need to be acknowledged and acted upon by global players.

“We need to look at our own weaknesses and internal problems before we can face

China and other external challenges.”

Shada Islam, Founder and Director, New Horizons Project

@MaksymKhylko: US needs to be able to work with allies & partners on global challenges.

The challenge is how free people, nations & societies shape a global order in which people can be secure & prosperous in the face of rising aggressive authoritarian regimes, @DamonMacWilson at #GLOBSEC2020

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Crisis of MultilateralismThe reality of today’s international cooperation is far from what we imagined prior to this crisis. Caused by the spread of the COVID-19 virus, crisis management now has a whole new meaning in itself. States, NGOs and institutions battling the pandemic had to accommodate the new reality and become more resilient and more efficient in their responses. Every hesitation to take action could result in an unnecessary loss of lives. While closer multilateral cooperation is the only solution to the challenge posed by the pandemic, we are yet to learn how to overcome our reflexes to look inwardly and protect ourselves first. Multilateral cooperation is facing even more and graver challenges than before. Old problems have not disappeared and they still require our attention. What has changed is their nature which only added a new set of challenges for the world to grapple with. This includes the loss of trust in institutions, a constant rise of populism, the rise of China, competition between the U.S. and China, the battle for democracy in Belarus, Cyprus as a battlefield for Turkey and Greece, and a revived conflict in Nagorno Karabakh. These and many more issues are those which the multilateral cooperation has to tackle now while learning how to conquer the pandemic.

DE-FRAGMENTING THE WORLD – ENVISIONING A MORE COOPERATIVE FUTURE The pandemic escalated already existing problems in times when multilateralism as we know it was shaken by power competition between the US and China, a rise of populism and the climate crisis. Continuing global cooperation within international organisations and other platforms to have a constructive dialogue remains the only solution to issues of today. Problems such as racial tensions and rising nationalism are becoming borderless and the failure of leadership in many areas proves to be an obstacle that will also need the attention of the international community. Coronavirus is a factor hindering the potential

progress towards finding a solution, which international organisations such as the EU, UN and OSCE should eliminate to succeed in managing these challenges.

@NigelMBaker1: This is an extraordinary commitment. As @martin_klus just made clear

at #GLOBSEC2020, it’s up to us - liberal democracies - to set the example and stand by it, including on #ClimateChange @COP26

“If we are able to combine our values, the greater will be our capacity on the global

stage.”

General John Allen President of Brookings Institution

ALWAYS ADAPTING: NATO’S 2030 AGENDA AND FUTURE ALLIED SECURITY The primary reason of NATO’s existence was to contain the threat of the Soviet Union, which has been dissolved as the main focus of NATO’s mission despite current upheavals coming from the East. The Alliance cannot merely adapt to military threats; as part of its 2030 Agenda, the Alliance is focusing on taking a more global approach and political cooperation with other organisations, but mainly the EU. Resilience and technological advancement are becoming a key part of the critical infrastructure of NATO’s strategy ahead.

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“The time has come to revise the strategic concept because the world has

fundamentally changed since 2010. The key to NATO’s success is that we change when

the world is changing.”

Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General, NATO

@AnnwieAnna: Strong societies is the first line of defence @jensstoltenberg Yes, and national #resilience brings

international cooperation. When resilience fails, states get busy fending for themselves. #NATO #EU @benedettabertiw #GLOBSEC2020 @ACFutureEurope

A COMPASS OF STABILITY – NATO’S AGELESS UTILITYMany areas of life were vastly affected by the pandemic, yet it has also triggered the readiness and resilience of national armies and NATO’s personnel capabilities. Logistical support of armies towards health care systems during the crisis signals its benefits and could be essential in further dealing with the pandemic. NATO and international cooperation in a rules-based order is the only choice for further containing issues such as climate change, Russia and China. In times of uncertainty and with the possibility of sudden threats to Alliance members’ common security, NATO’s capabilities complemented by the support from other institutions such as the EU may be the only answer to an unprecedented crisis.

“There is a strong message of unity for NATO. We have to have difficult

conversations in order to progress and innovate, not remain stagnant.”

H.E. Harjit Singh Sajjan, Minister of National Defence of Canada

ASK THE EUROPEAN CHIEF PROSECUTOR!The newly emerging European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) is a unique organisation in which the flexibility of the structure is one of its main strengths. It works towards the goal of unifying legislation in the field of white collar crimes and fraud, while strengthening the rule of law through transparency and cooperation among the 22 member countries. The independence of this office, working with 140 prosecutors across member countries, aims at tackling new types of criminality which have emerged during the pandemic in a comprehensive manner, while simultaneously preserving the rule of law in states where it may be contested.

“The starting day of EPPO is a shared responsibility. We need to have European prosecutors, transparent procedure when selecting prosecutors, and directives and

member states which include EPPO in legislation and a clear budget.”

Laura Codruța Kövesi, European Public Prosecutor

VISEGRAD COOPERATION. THE NEXT DECADE

“Instead of dragging us into intellectual debate about sovereignty, we should focus

on what makes us stronger. We won’t be a global player unless we do much more in

the CFSP.”

H.E. Ivan Korčok, Minister of Foreign and European Affairs of the Slovak Republic

Reaching its 30th year of existence, the Visegrad Four is a well-established grouping whose significance is not disputable for its members. The discussion emphasised the need of the V4 to find a common ground on strategic issues where some discrepancies exist – especially when it comes to the rule of law conditionality in the COVID-19 Recovery

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Fund. Priorities also include carving a path for Belarusians towards free elections and maintaining a stronger EU that would further strengthen transatlantic relations. The V4 does not have to agree on everything, but the core issue is to keep the dialogue and cooperation going and focus on the traditional sectors of collaboration.

EU’S GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN THE POST-COVID ERA EUThroughout the decades of its existence, the EU has overcome many obstacles to become the global leader it is now. COVID-19 has been another roadblock in the way and while the Union is a key partner in the international scene it needs to become more united internally. Shared rules, protection of common values and reliance on dialogue have to the be pillars of cooperation both internally and externally. The potential of the EU’s power is far from exhausted, and to make the most of it, the Common European Foreign and Security Policy needs to meet the expectation of all participating member states. The precondition to have an impact globally is our own unity.

“I believe that sanctions are an important tool. They are useful, effective and needed

if they have a negative impact on those against whom they are imposed.”

H.E. Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs of the French Republic

Better and more efficient use of our strengths, including Europe’s economic power, is crucial for a building potent partnerships. Nevertheless, an important focal point of joint action in the future will be to embrace what the EU has successfully created – an environment of liberal democracies, freedom, rule of law, fairness and justice. The EU should also consider a more intensive and confident communication of its achievements. Focusing on key priorities as opposed to trying to engage in too many things at the same time

would also help to deliver in the areas of utmost importance.

ALL HANDS ON DECK: MAXIMIZING SECURITY COOPERATION BETWEEN NATO AND EU The EU’s military capability has been questioned for a long time now. The benefits of closer cooperation with NATO are evident even though the EU decided to invest in its security and defence. The EU is, however, still in search of internal unity on which threats should be prioritised and what is the best way to respond to them. While some are more preoccupied with Russia, the threats emanating from the South are topping the list of priorities of other members.

The current situation in Belarus and the conflict between Turkey and Greece in Cyprus are only some of the current challenges NATO and the EU have to face and need to cooperate on. On the other side of the Atlantic, the U.S. is often uneasy about Europe’s efforts to enhance the continent’s defence integration. But ultimately, stronger European defence that is coordinated with NATO will only strengthen transatlantic security and not deduct from it.

“Both EU and NATO are looking for the same objectives: safety, security and

defence of our people.”

Baiba Braže, Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy, NATO

With the nature of the threats the world is facing now, such as climate change and the pandemic, the cooperation of the EU and NATO might not only increase the efficiency of our shared defence ambition, but will also be financially beneficial for both institutions and its members.

@TaraHallo: “We can’t just throw flowers when they’re throwing bots and trolls!” #GLOBSEC2020 w/@NATOBrazeB

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Advancements of Tomorrow The current pandemic is just one of a myriads of challenges we face. If we are to quickly recover from this devastating pandemic and build safer, more prosperous and resilient societies, we need to think creatively and come up with new solutions and tools to overcome these challenges. Could 5G drive economic growth in the next decade? Are there innovative ways of governing we could deploy ? Would digitalisation help rebuild citizens’ trust and enthusiasm in their national governments and the EU? Could the EU play a leading role in the wide variety of advancements of tomorrow?

5G: MEDICINE FOR POST-CORONA RECOVERY? The transformative potential of the mass roll-out of 5G includes the power to drive economic growth and the economic recovery of the post-COVID world.

“What is agreed upon is that 5G will become critical to the functioning of governments

and societies.”

Joyce Hakmeh, Senior Research Fellow, International Security Programme, Co-Editor,

Journal of Cyber Policy, Chatham House

However, there are several concerns from governments as well as the general public, ranging from cybersecurity, diversification of suppliers and misinformation regarding technical operators, which all need to be addressed.

The European Union has been proactive in this area. The cybersecurity of 5G networks: an EU Toolbox of risk mitigating measures is a good starting point, striking a good balance between laying out common criteria and individual criteria, as well as the national security concerns of member states. The current pandemic delayed the deployment of 5G but emphasised the need for its implementation. 5G can fulfil its potential to act as the central nervous system of the 21st century while supporting the green transition across a variety of industries.

HYBRID THREATS TO DEMOCRACYHybrid threats to democracy have recently been more visible and tangible than ever before. This creates an overwhelming stress on democratic countries and underlines how fragile international co-operation is. Countries sharing the same values and concerns around these threats need to act promptly, share data, employ modern technology and work together to minimise propaganda and disinformation spread.

Creating coordinated and continuous efforts from governments is crucial in building public trust. To achieve this, all stakeholders of the society need to be involved – social media platforms, civil society organisations, local media, schools, as well as the EU.

“We need not just a government approach, but really a whole society approach.”

Lea Gabrielle, Special Envoy and Coordinator of Global Engagement Center, Washington

With solidarity and by coordinating the positive information flow and strategic communication, we will be able to move forward to manage these threats.

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EU IN THE DIGITAL AGE: A POST-PANDEMIC RETHINK

“We’ve seen 10 years of digitalisation in 2 months and this process has proven

the need for even more dialogue.”

Zsuzsanna Zsofia Matrai, Regional Director, Government Affairs, Lead for CEE region,

Microsoft

From education and health care sectors to the protection of cyberspace, transformation of public institutions and data protection, digital transformation plays a crucial role in preparing for the future. Although EU member states are at different levels of digitalisation, there is a shared commitment to a common system and policies that would enable European citizens to better adjust to and benefit from the digital world. The pandemic showed not only the importance of digitalisation, but also the vulnerabilities and gaps in each of the EU member states. It provides us with the opportunity to improve the skills and competences of the EU citizens and strive for not only the free movement of people but also the free movement of information.

@BonefeldCecilia: If there is one thing we really need to spend money on, it is to get our children and teachers up to speed.

#DigitalAge, #GLOBSEC2020

THE COMING CONVERGENCE: TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIVITY AND SECURITY ADVANTAGES The convergence of technological connectivity and security advantages can be a double-edged sword. Governments can greatly benefit from commercial products in their efforts to boost national security, given that technology developed by private enterprises is strictly adapted to governmental use. 

In the commercial world, consumers expect instant technological progress in search for constantly improving product or service offering. These product innovations are often done through an analysis of available consumer data, which allows for ‘tailoring’ of the product – and also its advertising - to their taste and behaviour.  

However, when governments use innovative technologies for national security purposes, the potential impact on whole populations is usually much larger than in commercial use cases. The use of commercial technologies by governments must therefore adhere to a different set of rules in the name of protecting populations against potential vulnerabilities embedded in the design of these technologies. This is because the influx of consumer data, as typically used in the commercial sector, could make it easy for adversaries to intervene with governmental services and eventually disrupt whole societies. 

“It is this convenience that creates national security threats.” 

Elizabeth Braw, Visiting Fellow, American Enterprise Institute

@GLOBSEC: Radoslav Danilák: The question is how government should incentivize commercial sector and industrial for using

technology for common good. #WarfareTech, #GLOBSEC2020

DIGITAL SOVEREIGNTY & THE SCRAMBLE FOR DATA SUPREMACY Digital sovereignty and surrounding concerns over the use and protection of personal data have become a strong political narrative, both in Brussels and in individual member states. The EU needs to engage with the private sector more when it comes to data management, as well as fostering competitiveness in the digital field if it is to achieve digital sovereignty.

@Anetttu: We should not be worried about big brother, we should be worried about little sister. Meaning companies like

Google who are doing things with our data we don’t know about #DigitalTransformation #Data #GLOBSEC2020

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The real focus does not need to be on who controls the data, but on ensuring that the data is transparent. The EU needs to ensure there is full transparency, not just on how data is managed but also in how it is used to target consumers, and in how it is manipulated through algorithms, as there are currently no regulations in place. Europe is taking the lead on transparency and data protection and this is where its biggest comparative advantage lies, along with its reputation as a regulatory superpower. 

“Europe is taking the lead in thinking systematically and strategically about data.”

Cameron Kerry, Ann R. and Andrew H. Tisch Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Center for

Technology Innovation at Brookings

CENTURY OF CITIES The Pact of Free Cities launched by mayors of the Visegrad Four capitals aims to create a cooperative platform of shared values and initiatives directly counterbalancing illiberal national governments and reversing autocratic and populist trends. The initiative wants to show another face of the Central European region.

Despite the tendencies of regional governments to create polarisation, there is a strong opposition in civil society in V4 countries, based and mobilised in cities.

“If we want to defeat populism, we have to do our best to mitigate polarisation.”

Gergely Karácsony, Mayor of Budapest

The panel of mayors agreed that cities and municipalities can be much more committed to and effective in decreasing social injustice, fighting climate change and protecting the rule of law than central governments, and can act as a bridge between increasingly polarised societies. 

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Resilience and Challenges to Democratic Transition The world is at a turning point. The COVID-19 crisis has created unparalleled multi-layered challenges for our societies, economies and systems. Countries with well-functioning democratic institutions and practices are able to cope with challenges and crises better, and as a result democracy is crucial for building national and community resilience. To achieve a sustainable recovery in the post COVID-19 world, the relationship between citizens and governments must be rethought and people’s trust in institutions regained. Citizens need to know that they are protected and that their leaders are the guardians of the values of democracy, the rule of law, and respect for fundamental rights.

@ZuzanaCaputova: We must stop undermining our institutions. We must replace questioning and

criticism with support, defunding with improvement and withdrawing with more engagement. #Globsec2020

“The pandemic has revealed our strengths and vulnerabilities. Healing alone is not enough. We must pre-empt. We need to

encompass all of our societies. Strength and resilience are based on rules. We need to

immunise our institutions.”

Zuzana Čaputová, President of the Slovak Republic

U.S. ELECTION COUNTDOWN. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR EUROPE?At a time of growing stress on democracy around the world, US citizens will cast their votes in a democratic system that also faces a set of challenges.. The outcome of elections will not just shape US democracy for a generation but could alter the very idea of democracy as a global norm. The recent Megatrends highlighted the declining power of the U.S. globally. As part of the solution to rebuild the leadership of the U.S. internationally, the United States would have to primarily ensure the stability of domestic institutions and overcome domestic challenges.

For the EU, the U.S. election has almost the same level of importance as it does for the U.S. Nonetheless, the number one challenge for Brussels and Washington will be to maintain political dynamics, and interface with China. One of the expected tensions that might occur between the EU and the U.S. could be related to the perception of China and its positions as both a competitor and a partner. An important solution to this tension would be to ensure relations and strengthen the commitment of China within WTO.

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“Nationalism and populism in the US have reduced American foreign policy strength.

It is about how we deal with democratic institutions at home, before having

democratic influence on the global stage.”

Torrey Taussig, Research Director, Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship,

Harvard Kennedy School

TURKEY’S ROLE IN REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITYFrom the point of view of Ankara, Turkey has faced a diverse barrage of challenges for nearly a decade. Turkey and its European partners have been dealing with issues such as the unprecedented surge in refugees, an increase in terrorist activity and an unstable regional landscape. Despite the successes to date to regulate the flow of migrants while avoiding a total humanitarian disaster, Ankara maintains that more work is still required to support Turkey and those refugees to ensure they have a future. Specifically, increased efforts to build more trust and solidity between Brussels and Ankara during these uncertain times must be prioritized and could result in major changes towards Turkey’s potential ascension to the EU. While Turkey remains a critical member of NATO, its selective engagement with Russia has been met with continuous unease. As the international dynamic remains unpredictable, Ankara calls for partners like the EU and NATO to look at how to lessen the burden facing Turkey and resume productive channels of dialogue to ensure collective stability and security.

“There are many areas in which we can still continue to work and cooperate with the EU: modernisation of customs unions, migration,

security.”

H.E. Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey

A CONVERSATION WITH THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIAIn addition to become a NATO member, early this year North Macedonia received a green light from the EU to enter membership discussions. Representatives of North Macedonia believe that the country is on a good path towards integration and appreciate any help provided by the EU. The EU´s response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the Western Balkans has been very well-perceived and appreciated. North Macedonia is ready to expand its cooperation within the Balkan region as well as the European Union. Looking into the future, North Macedonia wishes to expand the mini Schengen initiative into a maxi Schengen where all the Balkan countries will be able to participate. For now, the importance lies in the efforts of North Macedonia to continue implementing EU-related reforms.

“This time the EU delivered massive investment and an economic package. We

are impressed. The EU solidarity was proved to the region as real.”

H.E. Stevo Pendarovski, President of the Republic of North Macedonia

@EWB_eu: The new Economic and Investment Plan shows that the #EU really cares about the

#WesternBalkans, said @SPendarovski, the President of the Republic of #NorthMacedonia at @GLOBSEC. #GLOBSEC2020

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WESTERN BALKANS AND EUROPEAN NEIGHBOURHOOD POST-COVID19The EU neighbourhood has been one of the central topics for the EU for the past years, despite its ups and downs. Nonetheless, Ukraine and the Western Balkans are priority regions where continuous cooperation, dialogue and hard work are key for the EU. Relations with Ukraine are moving to the next phase, comprising mostly technical issues of deeper sectoral cooperation. Ukrainian representatives feel well-supported by domestic stakeholders and other representatives in Brussels. Regarding the Western Balkans, the EU’s role in the Pristina-Belgrade dialogue constitutes an essential role in a deeper EU integration of Serbia and Kosovo. Here it is crucial that the agreement will be comprehensive and will bring stability to the region. Yet there is also a responsibility on the EU’s side to be able to project the EU’s perspective in a way that is credible. The EU needs to work on PR to fight the incorrect narrative of China or Russia being the biggest donors and investors in the Western Balkans. One of the essential positive decisions for the region has been the opening of the accession process with Albania and North Macedonia. This action has sent a positive message across the region and a hope that the German presidency will bring net developments in the negotiations.

DEMOCRATIC TRANSFORMATION OF BELARUSBelarusians have captivated the world with unprecedented and inspiring social and political mobilisation. The 2020 Belarusian protests against the government and President Alexander Lukashenko have been closely followed by the whole world. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the global face of Belarus’s protest movements, the main opposition candidate in the 2020 Belarus Presidential election quickly became probably the most recognised figure in Belarus. She has been placed on wanted lists and cannot return to Belarus. Nevertheless, she still manages to organise a team of professionals working on the spot. She has promised that the protests and demonstrations will not cease, people will not step back, and they will not let Lukashenko navigate their lives. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is striving for victory and will not stop until new democratic elections take place.

“The protest movement may fade away but it will never die. We are united and ready

to fight. We are open for a dialogue with all countries who would be supportive of the

democratic system in Belarus.”

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya Main Opposition Candidate in the 2020

Belarus Presidential Election

@tmnewsstream: Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya floats escape hatch for Lukashenko

as option to facilitate peaceful transition of power. @GLOBSEC #GLOBSEC2020

GLOBSEC 2020 BRATISLAVA FORUM SUMMARY ( 17

FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY IN THE POST-COVID WORLDDemocracy is facing one of the biggest challenges posed by megatrends like globalisation. The flow of misinformation, lack of trust and all other similar threats of the digital era are all the products of a globalisation that affects democracy. We must ensure that the rule of law will help to create a safe world but also a safe digital space, especially during the pandemic. Democracy needs to create rules to prevent harmful content. The issue also stands in relation to the power of populists, who thrive on the anxiety of people rather than fear. Once real fear arrives, however, society begins to trust government institutions. Hence, it is the right time to strenghten democracy and start building trust with the public and younger generation. At the fast pace we are moving, we need to accelerate our actions and ensure we educate and forge the right policies for society and allow them to recognise the authentic accuracy of information.

“This is the first world pandemic happening in the internet era; we need to talk about

responsibility now.”

Markus Reinisch, Vice-President for Public Policy in Europe, the Middle East and Africa,

Facebook

GLOBSECAward Ceremony

GLOBSEC 2020 BRATISLAVA FORUM SUMMARY ( 19

Sviatlana TsikhanouskayaGLOBSEC FREEDOM AWARDEE Your excellencies, ladies and gentlemen,

I am very honoured and grateful for this award. But this is award not for me this is award for all Belarusian people who are now fighting for their freedom and their rights in my own country Belarus. Without their courage, without their dignity, without their collective unity I wouldn’t stand here. [and getting this award] This is award for freedom and I think most of the people take freedom for granted. But sometimes freedom is some-thing you have to fight for. I will tell you what freedom means for me and for all Belarusian people.

Freedom is, when a youtube blogger Sergei Tikhanouski tells the truth about bureaucracy and corruption in Belarus and gets jailed for this. Freedom is, when activist Stepan Latypov defends political street art and gets jailed for this. Freedom is, when women’s leader Maria Kalesnikava tears her own passport not to be kicked out of the country and gets jailed for this. Freedom is, when journalist Igor Losik writes the truth about politics and gets jailed for it. Freedom is, when mediator Liliya Vlasova joins coordination council to solve political crisis and gets jailed for this. Freedom is, when famous basketball player Elena Levchenko supports protests against regime and gets jailed for this. Freedom is, when a lawyer Maxim Znak explains the laws and people’s rights and gets jailed for this. Freedom is, when minor Yuri Korzon handcuffed himself underground in protest against violence and atrocities and gets jailed for this. Freedom is, when human rights activist Martha Rapkova conducts trainings for volunteers and gets jailed for this. Freedom is, when a worker Yuri Sergej Delievksi organizes the strikes for falsified elections and gets jailed for this. Freedom is, when photographer Alexander Vasakovich covers the women’s protest and gets jailed for this. I can provide you with more than 13 thousand reasons, why one can get jailed when he or she strives for freedom, but in Belarus even if you are in jail you can remain free.

Even if one can steal your physical freedom, he can’t steal freedom of thoughts and freedom of conscience. This year Belarus has understood what freedom means, after this year Belarusians will never forget the value of freedom. It’s hard to gain the freedom but it’s easy to lose this. I ap-peal to all in this audience, always stand for freedom and protect it when it’s under threat. Again I am so grateful for this award. It’s my pleasure to get it on behalf of all the Belarusian people.

Please value freedom and Žyvie Biełaruś. Thank you

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Karel SchwarzenbergCZECH AND SLOVAK TRANSATLANTIC AWARDEE I must admit, I am very touched by what happened now and I will explain you why. Basically, I am convinced that medals, orders or awards are a first symptom of growing senility in an older man. But this time I admit I am very glad about it. For more than a half century - the greatest part of my life - I was a proud Czechoslovak citizen and still today, I know that, of course, we divided 30 years ago. I know, we have two independent states, still I admit Slovakia is not a foreign country for me. It is a country of many friends, beautiful nature, where I feel really at home, therefore, if I get an award here it is more than if I would get it in Washington, Moscow or Beijing - it really is the best thing I could have.

It is true that 30, 40 years ago I worked for the International Helsinki Federation for Human Rights and it was a great time of my life working for human rights in our whole area. But I will tell you something which is a sad fact. I had it much easier in that time because honestly from Washington, Paris to Bonn, human rights were let’s say in fashion. Every politician who was about to approach human rights did help you and this spirit somehow disappeared and I do see that many even befriended governments and politicians we quiet like, don’t really care about human rights. Especially if it is not in their own country and I do think it’s more important than everything. I hoped today that somebody will get beside me, this award who has greater merits than me because this Belarusian lady who stood up, when they kept her husband and fought against the regime, showed courage and intelligence and I do think that she merits the award much more than I do to be quite honest, because she lives under the act of actual danger. Because we see the Belarusian dictatorship is up to do many things and she is fighting and I admire her very much and I think we should praise her much more than me - please, do that when she comes.

And really I remember in the beginning of 1990s when the communist regime stopped, somebody told erroneously that it’s the end of history. But of course it didn’t end and we are now in the period, where again we have to really fight all in the whole world even in our own countries to preserve liberty, the rule of law and the human rights. The temptations even in our countries here are to diminish the importance of these questions. Please, be careful, please,

GLOBSEC 2020 BRATISLAVA FORUM SUMMARY ( 21

watch the development so it never happens to us what happened to the generation of our grandfathers some 80 years ago that we all suddenly were living under different dictatorships. I know, for some people it is not imaginable, that it would be, but human destiny is sometimes strange and courage to fight is a rare quality still today so please, please, take care, but not only personally but even in politics, be clear and fight, whoever from you is in politics or journalists or similar jobs, please, fight for human rights, fight for the rule of law and fight for the liberty.

It is very necessary today, where for instance, what many friends of mine, I never was purely, but many friends of mine thought that the natural advantage of liberty that it is economically most successful. Now China proved that without liberty you can be a successful economy, too and this, of course is something very dangerous, that people would like to imitate and there are some politicians, who carefully study the Chinese development and think there may be too much human rights, too much liberty, too much democracy is obnoxious. We take care really we are going into a very strange period of our history, where Europe loses its importance, other powers are much more important than we and we are still squabbling, we are not able to unite Europe, we are not able to accept people who are in need. If we get it to spend even the most necessary means for our own defence, not for the principal, but even for our own defence, so really we are in a strange time. I would like to thank again for the award I got, it made me very happy but probably it was the nicest day of this year and I thank everybody who thought of me - an old man, who is already partly forgotten, because his activities are long time ago and now he moves only with difficulty.

Thank you so much for everything.

22 ) GLOBSEC 2020 BRATISLAVA FORUM SUMMARY

2020 Policy Initiatives and Reports

GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS 2020Based on crowdsourced intelligence from top minds in the fields of economy, security and international relations, as well as insights from the wider public, top experts from GLOBSEC Policy Institute identified trends so that policy solutions could be shaped reflecting the post-COVID world emerging from the crisis. The end result of this intensive GLOBSEC Megatrends 2020 analysis is a stark, detailed account and forecast of how we stand going forward, with surprising and intriguing information – and Megatrends – 10 in all – on the path we need to forge going forward in the coming decades.

MAKING FLEXIBLE EUROPE WORK? EUROPEAN GOVERNANCE AND THE POTENTIAL OF DIFFERENTIATED COOPERATION

Accommodating different socio-economic and political interests of Member States, the goal of this report is to determine whether, how much and where differentiation is necessary, sustainable, and viable as well as how future approaches towards differentiation could fare in light of these findings. The report is the result of a 2-year research project DIFF GOV: European Governance: Potential of Differentiated Cooperation implemented with the support of the Erasmus+ Programme of the European Union, and conducted by GLOBSEC Policy Institute´s Future of Europe Programme in collaboration with numerous experts from 20 Member States.

GLOBSEC 2020 BRATISLAVA FORUM SUMMARY ( 23

EUROPEAN JIHAD: FUTURE OF THE PAST? FROM CRIMINALS TO TERRORISTS AND BACK? FINAL REPORTEuropean Jihad: Future of the Past? From Criminals to Terrorists and Back? is the final report of GLOBSEC’s From Criminals to Terrorists and Back?, a two year advocacy and research project funded under PMI Impact. The report’s findings were based on a unique dataset of 197 European jihadis. Thanks to the work of the research teams based in 11 countries, GLOBSEC was able to study 120+ variables related to every individual included in the dataset and was consequently able to provide a 360 degree outlook on who European jihadis truly are, where they come from, how they had been radicalised and where, or how networked they are within the broader jihadi milieu in Europe.

VISUALISING INFLUENCE: INFORMATION BUBBLES AND IDEOLOGICAL PROXIMITIES ON CZECH, HUNGARIAN & SLOVAK FACEBOOK

GLOBSEC Policy Institute´s Democracy & Resilience Programme has produced a report that aims to provide in-depth contextual information regarding the complexities of the Czech, Hungarian and Slovak information spaces on Facebook, with a concentration on pro-Kremlin information networks and pages that disseminate disinformation. This report has been produced in cooperation with Graphika, a company that uses AI to discover and map networks and communities on social media.

TOWARDS A NEW LEVEL OF EUROPEAN DEFENCE COMPETENCEThe Towards a new level of European Defence Competence report highlights the central findings and recommendations of the GLOBSEC European Security Initiative (GESI). GESI, led by General (Ret.) Knud Bartels, aims to critically analyse the current state of development of European Defence capabilities and put forward a strategic vision of European Defence.

24 ) GLOBSEC 2020 BRATISLAVA FORUM SUMMARY

VOICES OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: PERCEPTIONS OF DEMOCRACY & GOVERNANCE IN 10 EU COUNTRIESGLOBSEC’s new report Voices of Central and Eastern Europe: Perceptions of democracy & governance in 10 EU countries, provides a unique insight into satisfaction with democracy and current governance systems in 10 Central and Eastern European countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. By observing links between the support for liberal democracy over autocracy, satisfaction with the governance and life, and inclination to believe in conspiracy and misinformation narratives, the report reveals fragile spots that require further discussion on multiple levels.  

THE UNITED STATES AND CENTRAL EUROPE: A ROAD MAP FOR A DEMOCRATIC POST-PANDEMIC AGENDAGLOBSEC Policy Institute and the Atlantic Council published their second joint report: The United States and Central Europe: A Road Map for a Democratic Post-Pandemic Agenda. This paper advocates for a common agenda, suggesting areas where the United States and Central Europe can pool efforts, working together with the EU and within NATO. The agenda that has been suggested— economics, security, and common values—is intended to support thinking about US-Central European relations and how they fit within the larger effort to frame a post-COVID- 19 agenda for the wider democratic world.

CEE ACTIVITIES OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD: CZECH REPUBLIC, POLAND, SERBIAGLOBSEC’s partnership with the Counter Extremism Project has produced a second report from the CEE Activities of the Muslim Brotherhood project. This publication presents three case studies from the region, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Serbia.  The three countries have seen dynamic developments of their various Islamic communities, be it autochthonous, expatriate or in convert communities.

GLOBSEC 2020 BRATISLAVA FORUM SUMMARY ( 25

SLOVAK PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION 2020: LIBERALISM AS A THREAT, FACEBOOK AS A BATTLEFIELDGLOBSEC Policy Institute´s Democracy & Resilience Programme monitored online information space for five months, proving that the pre-election rhetoric on websites and the most popular social media platform in Slovakia, Facebook, was characterised by divisive, harmful, and manipulative narratives. This report argues that Facebook enabled fringe actors to strongly influence the discourse and served as a highway for those harmful narratives which question the very basis of democracy –  to secure fundamental rights and freedoms – to enter into mainstream and high-level politics.

YOUNG PEOPLE, EU CITIZENSHIP AND ACTIVISM, VOL. II – EUACT FINAL REPORTOver the course of the last 14 months, GLOBSEC Policy Institute´s Future of Europe Programme, in cooperation with Das Progressive Zentrum, Slavyani Foundation, and the Higher School of International Relations and Social Communication in Chełm, gathered hopes, fears and recommendations for EU policymakers from young people all over Europe. This final report provides reflections on the perceptions young people have in relation to their attitudes towards the EU and their understanding of EU citizenship and activism, as well as reflections on ways to encourage them to be active EU citizens.

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