Land policies in Brazil: Questions of interest
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Land policies in Brazil: Questions of interest
Gilberto Câmara, INPE
Licence: Creative Commons ̶̶̶̶ By Attribution ̶̶̶̶ Non Commercial ̶̶̶̶ Share Alikehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/
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Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season
Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season
Sugarcane
Crop Year 2002/2003
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
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Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season
Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season
Sugarcane
Crop Year 2010/2011
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
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MATO GROSSO – Sorriso: Crop Year 2002/2003
Annual Crop - 1 Crop Annual Crop - 2 Crops
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
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MATO GROSSO – Sorriso: Crop Year 2010/2011
Annual Crop - 1 Crop Annual Crop - 2 Crops
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
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Crop Year 2002/2003
Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season
Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season
Sugarcane source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
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Crop Year 2010/2011
Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season
Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season
Sugarcane source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
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SÃO PAULO – Barretos: Crop Year 2002/2003
1
Annual Crop - 1 Crop Annual Crop - 2 Crops Sugarcane
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
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SÃO PAULO – Barretos: Crop Year 2010/2011
1
Annual Crop - 1 Crop Annual Crop - 2 Crops Sugarcane
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
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Tradeoffs in double cropping?
27/2/13 | EDF-MMA 11source: Avery Cohn (NCAR)
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Early Rainy Season
Late Rainy Season
Increase in soya prices
No trend 1st crop ↑2nd crop ↓
Decrease in soya prices
1st crop ↓2nd crop ↑
No trend
27/2/13 | EDF-MMA 12
Tradeoffs in double cropping?
source: Avery Cohn (NCAR)
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Are biofuels replacing food production in Brazil?
source: B. Rudorff, INPE
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Are biofuels replacing food production in Brazil?
24% 26%30%
37% 41% 38%
26%
12% 1% 1%
3% 3%3%
3%
7%17%
48%85%
98% 98%
1% 1%1%
1%
1%
1%
71% 70%65%
59%51%
44%
26%
3%1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Área Agrícola Cana-de-açúcar Citrus Pastagem Vegetação Arbórea
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Brazil: Do biofuels cause indirect land change?
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Brazil: Projected direct land change from biofuels (2020)
source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)
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Brazil: Projected indirect land change from biofuels (2020)
source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)
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• Current productivity : 118 million Animal Units;• Potential sustainable carrying capacity: 367 mi Animal Units;
Current productivity only 32-34% of potential
Current Productivity Potential Productivity
Bernardo Strassburg (Instituto Internacional para Sustentabilidade)
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Potential Allocation in 2040 that fulfil all demands
Brazil has already enough cleared land for all land-related needs, respecting environmental constraints, up to at least 2040;
An increase from 32-34% to 49-52% would suffice to meet all future demands without further deforestation
ResultsBernardo Strassburg (Instituto Internacional para Sustentabilidade)
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Sustainability?
NPV (net present value) of land in Amazonia for cattle
ranching Land speculation
Land purchase
Extensive ranching is only profitable for large farms
source: Bowman et al. (Land Use Policy, 2012)
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NPV (net present value) of land in Amazonia for cattle ranching
source: Silva and Barreto (Imazon, 2011)
No
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