Laks - fra introduksjonsfase til vekstfase?
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Transcript of Laks - fra introduksjonsfase til vekstfase?
LAKS - GLOBAL INTRODUKSJONS- ELLER VEKSTFASE?
Havbrukskonferansen 2013 Paul Aandahl & Bjørn-Erik Stabell
GLOBAL TRADE OF SEAFOOD 2002
SALMONIDS
GLOBAL TRADE OF SEAFOOD 2013 ESTIMATE
SALMONIDS
GLOBAL ATLANTIC SALMON MARKET - DEMAND GROWTH
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
Pric
e, E
UR
Volume, WFE
PriceLinear (Price)
Export figures from producing countries
2002
2013 (estimate) 2010
2006
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4 year average *Elasticity 1.1, Value EUR/Volume WFE
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 000
MT
WFE
FreshFrozen
GLOBAL ATLANTIC SALMON MARKET - INCREASE FOR FRESH SALMON*
*Export of Atlantic salmon from producing countries
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
500 000
ASIA EU Eastern -Europe
South - America North -America
MT
WFE
AbsoluteRelative
GLOBAL ATLANTIC SALMON MARKET - CHANGE IN VOLUME 2002-2013
Export figures from Norway, UK, Faroe Islands, Canada & Chile
More people are buying salmon
GLOBAL SALMON MARKET: SALMON & MEGATRENDS
NSC INSIGHTS – AT WHICH OCCASIONS DO WE EAT SALMON?
0102030405060
At home on a weekday
At home at the weekends
At home for parties
At informal restaurants
At nice restaurants
At the home family/friends
SalmonCod
Source: Seafood Consumer Insight (SCI), TNS Gallup/NSC 2013 , Country(s): Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden
WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO EAT FOR..
Source: Seafood Consumer Insight (SCI), TNS Gallup/NSC 2012
Salmon: No. 1 Everyday dinner Salmon: No. 1 Weekend dinner
Salmon: No. 2 Restaurants
THE GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR NORWEGIAN SALMON WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER THE NEXT 15 YEARS THAN IT HAS BEEN IN THE PREVIOUS 15 YEARS.
A BRIGHT FUTURE…….
1. INCREASED GROWTH – INNOVATION & DISTRIBUTION
NEW PRODUCT IN TRADITIONAL TRADE CHANNELS
Example 1: Fresh salmon in hard discount in Germany
1. INCREASED GROWTH – INNOVATION & DISTRIBUTION
Example 1: Fresh salmon in hard discount in Germany
NEW PRODUCT IN TRADITIONAL TRADE CHANNELS
Example 2: Fresh salmon in sushi bar in Tromsø, Norway
2. INCREASED GROWTH : THE DEMAND FOR SALMON JUST PASSED THE «TIPPING POINT»
Source: Malcolm Gladwell – Tipping Point
3. INCREASED GROWTH: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Source: Homi Kharas; The emerging middle class in developing countries; OECD; Januar 2010
Other 57 %
2012
St. Petersburg/ Moskva
96% Other 4 %
2003 Example Russia
3. INCREASED GROWTH: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
St. Petersburg/ Moskva
96%
OUR CAPABILTY TO GROW PRODUCTION IN LINE WITH THE INCREASED GROWTH
IN DEMAND
WHAT IF………
THE GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR NORWEGIAN SALMON WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER THE NEXT 15 YEARS THAN IT HAS BEEN IN THE PREVIOUS 15
YEARS.
SUMMARY
THANK YOU