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EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, JULY 2011/ LAIKIPIA DISTRICT Page 1

OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER

MINISTRY OF NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT AND OTHER ARID DISTRICTS

ARIDLANDS RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PROJECT.LAIKIPIA DISTRICTS

DROUGHT MONTHLY BULLETIN FOR JULY 2011

LAIKIPIA COUNTY

SEASONAL CALENDER

Long rains short rains.Dry spell Dry spell

Jan, Feb. Mar, Apr, May, June, July, Aug, Sep, Oct Nov Dec

Livelihood

Zone

Warning stage Trend

PASTORAL ALL

SPECIES

ALARM WORSENING

AGRO

PASTORAL

ALERT WORSENING

MIXEDFARMING

ALERT WORSENING

MARGINAL

MIXED

FARMING

ALERT WORSENING

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Situation Overview

During the month of July the rains were heavy in some parts. In Matanya amarginal farming zone recorded only six rainy days with 48mm the normal

average at the same time is 42mm. Though in the pastoral zones the rains werevery poor.

Over 80% of the land mass in the mixed faming and marginal agriculture zonesreceived good rains the rains that come abnormally in the month of July did not

have much impact in the agriculture zones.

Generally the distance to grazing areas in the county is 2.5 km from the previous3 kms but still remained far from the normal 2 kms average in a normal year at

the same time

In the pastoral zones majority of the livestock have moved to the marginalagriculture zones and their body condition is very poor. There is major influx of

pastoralists in the marginal agriculture zones of Laikipia East , Central and

Rumuruti from as far as Wajir, Isiolo, and Samburu district in search of pastures.

There was no drop of milk prices that still stands at 40ksh. The normal price of aliter of milk at this time of the year is ksh. 20

In the mixed farming zones few lucky farmers have started eating there corn butthe actual harvest will start in September.

There is need for alternative sources of pastures for this livestock. i.e governmentto temporarily open up the mount Kenya forest.

Recommendations to the DSG and KFSSG

- Urgent relief food to the needy in Mukogodo and the marginal agriculturezones. (KFSSG)

- GOK Relief food need to be availed as the emergency response relief food isnot being received any more (KFSSG)

- Supplementary feeding for the under five as the nutrition status is worsening.(KFSSG, MOH)

- Veterinary to continue carrying out surveillance as the pastoralists are movingwith livestock to the marginal agriculture zones. (VET)

- There is need for alternative sources of pastures for this livestock. I.e.government to temporarily open up the Mount Kenya forest.

- Livestock off take to be taken continued. (DLPO)1. Environmental indicators

1.1.Rainfall Amount of rainfall

- During the month of July the rains were heavy in some parts. In Matanya amarginal farming zone recorded only six rainy days with 48 mm the normal

average at the same time is 42 mm. Though in the pastoral zones the rainswere very poor.

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- (Rainfall data provided by (AGRICULTURE EXTENTION OFFICERS INMATANYA.) from Matanya station in Lamuria division this data does not

cover the entire district, Matanya is an Agropastrolists zone but the situationis different in the rest of the livelihood zones.)

Temporal distribution.- The distribution of the rains was good in the mixed farming zones and

marginal agriculture zones.

- The pastoral zones of Mukogodo received very little rains. Spatial distribution

- Over 80% of the land mass in the mixed faming and marginal agriculturezones received good rains the rains that come abnormally in the month of July

did not have much impact in the agriculture zones.

- In the pastoral zones the rains were very poorly distributed. As the rains werebelow the normal though the month of July is not normally a rainy month.

1.2 conditions of natural vegetation and pastures.

Quality.- Following the rains the pastures have improved in the marginal agriculture

zones especially in Rumuruti Ngarua and nyahururu but in the central they are

scanty.- In the pastoral zones of Mukogodo. The pastures are still poor hardly enough

to sustain livestock.

- Generally the qualities of pastures are still poor in comparison to the sametime in a normal year.

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- But there is major influx of pastoralists in the marginal agriculture zones ofLaikipia East , Central and Rumuruti from as far as Wajir, Isiolo, and

Samburu district in search of pastures.

1.4.3 Other factors likely to affect the livelihoods.

- Considering the number of livestock that have come into the district thepastures are getting depleted at a very first pace.

- There is need for alternative sources of pastures for this livestock. i.egovernment to temporarily open up the mount Kenya forest.

1.5implications on food security- Considering the already poor body condition of the livestock and their

population in marginal farming zones, they are depleting pastures very firstand thus they will soon start collapsing due to lack of pastures, the other only

alternative is the mount Kenya which is a no go zone following the

government gazzettment of forest areas to be closed off.

2. Rural indicators (food Availability)2.1 Livestock production.

2.1.1 Livestock body condition- In the mixed farming zones livestock body condition is getting better but in

the marginal farming and the pastoral zones the livestock body condition is

poor.

- In the pastoral zones majority of the livestock have moved to the marginalagriculture zones and their body condition is very poor.

2.1.2 Livestock diseases.

- Cattle no diseases reported.

2.1.3 Milk production.

- There is no change in milk production especially in the pastoral areas wheremost of the livestock have moved to the marginal agriculture zones. Majority

of households depend on goat milk that is hardly enough to sustain thelivestock.

- There was no drop of milk prices that still stands at 40ksh. The normal pricesof a liter of milk at this time of the year is 20 ksh.

2.2 crop production.

2.2.1 Timeliness and condition of various crop production activities.

- In the mixed farming zones few lucky farmers have started eating there cornbut the actual harvest will start in September.

- In the marginal farming zones the crops are still very young as the majority ofthe farmers replanted after the failure of the rains in April and strong frost that

burnt of the crops, but when the rains come in May farmers planted again

hoping to harvest in November.

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2.2.2 Pest and diseases.- No cases reported.

2.2.3. Harvest.- In themixed faming zones the farmers have started eating corn though the

proper harvesting period is in September.- In the marginal agriculture zones their crops did not do well during the long

rains and thus they replanted and they expect to harvest in November.

2.2.4 Implications on food security

- At the moment farmers are food stressed as they have not harvested any cropsespecially the marginal agriculture zones who still have very low hopes of

harvesting any crops even in November.

3. Access To Food3.1 Livestock market3.1.1 Cattle prices

- The average price of a mature bull is at KSH 8,043 this is better than thenormal average price which is at 7100 KSH at the same time of the year.

- The current price is better than the previous month which was at KSH 7,809this is due to majority of the livestock have left the pastoral areas and are now

in the marginal mixed farming zones were the pastures far much better than

the pastoral areas.

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3.1.2 Goat prices

- The current price have slightly improved but the change is not of muchsignificance. This is due to the body condition of the goats are slightly betterthan that of the cattle and thus are able to fetch more money.

- The average price of goats in normal year is ksh 1,315.- In a normal year pastoralist had to sell one goat to purchase a bag of maize

worth 1200ksh but currently they have to sell 2 goats to purchase the same

bag worth 3600ksh

3.2. Livestock sales.- In the pastoral zones the cattle population has reduced and they have moved to the

marginal agriculture zones.

- Though their body condition is poor the pastoralists are selling them in bignumbers to enable them buy the cereals which are getting expensive.

3.3 Crop prices

3.3.1 Maize

- The price of maize is at Kshs 62 per kg.- The current prices have dropped from the Kshs 64 the previous month to

62ksh this month this is as result of the commodity loosing buyers.

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4.2 Health- No major disease reported.

5. Current intervention measures and coping strategies.5.1.Non food intervention

- Provision of fuel for the motorized boreholes to curb the water stressfollowing the drying up of the pans and dams.

5.2.Food aid- During the month of June the GOK allocation was received in the districts.

Recommendations

- Urgent relief food to the needy in Mukogodo and the marginal agriculturezones. (KFSSG)

- GOK Relief food need to be availed as the emergency response relief food isnot being received any more (KFSSG)

- Supplementary feeding for the under five as the nutrition status is worsening.(KFSSG, MOH)

- Veterinary to continue carrying out surveillance as the pastoralists are movingwith livestock to the marginal agriculture zones. (VET)

- There is need for alternative sources of pastures for this livestock. I.e.government to temporarily open up the Mount Kenya forest.

- Livestock off take to be taken continued. (DLPO)

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