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Kiev Retail Market Overview - JLL Україна Report Kiev _Q4 2016_ENG.pdf · Benetton, Bershka,...
Transcript of Kiev Retail Market Overview - JLL Україна Report Kiev _Q4 2016_ENG.pdf · Benetton, Bershka,...
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Kiev Retail Market Snapshot, Q4 2016
2
Supply
Quality shopping centre stock 957,800 sq m
Quality shopping centre stock per 1,000 inhabitants 330 sq m
Completions, Q4 2016 138,500 sq m
Completions, 2016 156,700 sq m
Announced completions, 2017 48,000 sq m
Vacancy rate 12.1%
Financial conditions
Prime shopping centre base rent* USD780 per sq m/ year
Operational expenses USD60 -110 per sq m/ year
*Rents are given for a single unit of 100 sq m GLA located on the ground floor of a retail gallery. Rents exclude VAT and OPEX.
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Supply Dynamics, Kiev
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0
40
80
120
160
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F
Completions Forecast
'000 sq mCompletionsStock
In 2016, quality retail stock increased by 156,700 sq m. The new deliveries were Lavina Mall SEC (115,000 sq m GLA) and
TSUM (23,500 sq m), both in Q4 2016, and New Way SEC (16,000 sq m) and GorodOK SEC, Phase 3 (2,200 sq m) –
opened previously.
Announced completions for 2017 total 48,000 sq m in three shopping centres: Smart Plaza SEC (15,000 sq m); KIDEAL
SEC, Phase 1 (22,000 sq m), Retail Park Petrovka, Phase 1 (11,000 sq m). Two other shopping centres announced to be
commissioned in 2017 will likely be postponed until 2018.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F
Stock at the beginning of the year Completions
'000 sq m
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Kiev Existing Shopping Centres
Neighborhood
Community
Regional
Superregional
Specialty/ outlet
1
3
4
56
7
8 9
1112
13
14
15
16
17
18
1920
21
22
23
25
24
26
5
27
2829
2 10
3031
№ Name GLA Year
1 Globus 19 200 2002
2 GorodOk 29 2002003, 2015,
2016
3 Karavan 39 300 2003
4 Magelan 22 000 2003
5 Mandarin Plaza 9 400 2003
6 Ukraina 22 200 2003
7 Promenada Center 17 800 2004
8 Aladdin 10 200 2004
9 Piramida 12 600 2004
10 Plazma 16 400 2006
11 Kosmopolit, Phase I, II, III 43 0002006, 2007,
2009
12 Komod 7 600 2007
13 Arkadia 16 200 2007
14 Sky Mall, Phase I, II 65 600 2007, 2010
15Arkadia on Dneprovskaya
Emb.19 700 2008
16 Kvadrat Aurora 19 000 2008
17 Darnitsa 5 800 2008
18 Promenada Park, Phase I, II 30 000 2009, 2010
19 Dream Town, Phase I, II 90 000 2009, 2011
20 RayON 24 100 2012
21 Ocean Plaza 70 000 2012
22 Polyarny 8 600 2012
23 Silver Breeze 15 600 2013
24 Gulliver 45 500 2013
25Manufactura, outlet center,
Phase I, II21 600 2013, 2015
26 Art Mall 37 000 2013
27 Atmosfera 30 200 2014
28 Prospekt 41 400 2014
29 Doma Center 8 200 2015
30 Aprel 5 900 2015
31 New Way 16 000 2016
32 Lavina Mall 115 000 2016
33 TSUM 23 500 2016
32
33
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Kiev Future Shopping Centres
Retroville
83,000* sq m
SG (Stolitsa Group)
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Lukyanovka
47,100 sq m
Arricano Real Estate
Blockbuster Mall
93,700 sq m
MEGALINE
KIDEAL, Phase 1
22,000 sq m
Immochan
Kyiv Mall
58,000 sq m
Dilays
River Mall
56,100 sq m
Vilna Ukraina
2018
Smart Plaza
15,000 sq m
UDP
2017
Retail Park
Petrovka, Phase 1
11,000 sq m
Immochan
2017
2018
2017
2018
2017/2018
2017/2018
*GLA is shown for all shopping centres.
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Retail Stock Breakdown by District
Goloseevskiy district remains the most saturated (737 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants). Solomenskiy district (163 sq m per 1,000
inhabitants) became the least saturated in Kiev in Q4 2016, replacing Sviatoshynskiy district (451 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants)
after the opening of Lavina Mall SEC.
In 2017, there will be no changes in the district ranking.
Shopping centres density by district*Quality retail breakdown by district*
*There are no quality shopping centres in Podol district.
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0 200 400 600 800
Goloseevskiy
Obolonskiy
Sviatoshynskiy
Shevchenkovskiy
Pecherskiy
Dneprovskiy
Desnianskiy
Darnitskiy
Solomenskiy
sq m/'000 inh.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
Stock Pipeline, 2017 Population (RHS)
'000 sq m '000 inh.
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Wages and Retail Turnover
In January-November 2016, retail turnover and wages in Ukraine grew by 3.7% YoY and 8.3% YoY respectively. The growth
was driven by lower inflation, increase in nominal wages and a low base of comparison.
Retail turnover and wages in Kiev in January-November 2016 also increased, by 5% and 13.9% YoY respectively.
Source: Ukrstat, Kievstat
Real wages and retail turnover, Ukraine, YoY
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Real wages and retail turnover, Kiev, YoY
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Retail turnover Wages
%
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Retail turnover Wages
%
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Retail Chains in the Market: Anchors
In Q4 2016, new shopping centre Lavina Mall SEC opened with such anchor tenants as Comfy and Eldorado, Ukraine’s largest Multiplex cinema, Silpo store with new design, amusement park "Galaxy". METRO opened a renewed hypermarket in Petrovka; Silpo and ATB Market opened their stores with new designs; Foxtrot and Eldorado opened stores with a new format.
Ukrainian brands and multibrand stores that were actively developing in 2016 include Must Have, Jasmine, VOVK, U Dress, Uamade. In 2016, the Epicenter network opened two new stores and carried out expansions of the two existing ones. InditexGroup opened the first Uterqüe store in Ukraine in the Gulliver shopping mall.
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Type Key retailers Format
Food
ATB Market, Silpo, Velyka Kyshenya, VARUS, Fora, Cosmos, ECO-
Market, NOVUS, Billa, Furshet,TopmartSupermarket
METRO, Auchan, Fozzy, MegaMarket, Karavan, Tam-TamHypermarket
White and Brown Foxtrot, Eldorado, Comfy Multibrand
CinemaBatterfly, Liniya Kino, Multiplex, Odessa Kino, Oscar, Planeta Kino IMAX,
Cinema City, WizoriaMultiplex
DIY Epicentre, Novaya Liniya, Leroy Merlin, OLDI, Jysk DIY
Children's entertainment
centers (CEC)
Igroland, Fly Park, Happylon, Kids Will, Kidlandia, Sky Park, GalaxyCEC
Fashion Marka Ukraina, Inditex Group, LPP Group, Argo, LC Waikiki,
New Yorker, Mango, Domino Group, Arber Fashion Group, MTI Group
Multibrand/
Monobrand
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Retail Chains in the Market: Retail Gallery
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Type Key retailers Format
Fashion
Benetton, Bershka, Cacharel, Calvin Klein, Colin's, Cropp Town, Diesel, Gant, Gloria
Jeans, Guess, House, Lacoste, Lerros, Mango, Massimo Dutti, Mohito, OGGI, O’stin,
Oysho, Promod, Pull&Bear, Stradivarius, Tommy Hilfiger, Topshop/Topman, US Polo
Assn.
Monobrand
Perfume and cosmeticsCosmo, Eva, Watsons, proStor, Bonjour, Brocard, L’Occitane, MAC, Bomond, Yves
Rocher, Glossary, NYX, LUSH
Monobrand,
Multibrand
Sport goods Arena, Adidas, Columbia, Nike, Puma, Reebok, Sportmaster, Megasport,
New Balance, Northland, Marathon, Svit Sportu, 2ХU, All Stars
Monobrand,
Multibrand
ShoesAldo, Antonio Biaggi, Carlo Pazolini, Rieker, Munchen, Vitto Rossi, Ecco, Geox, Luciano
Carvari, Respect, Welfare, Intertop, KARI, Loriblu
Monobrand,
Multibrand
Goods for children Antoshka, Budynok Igrashok, Planettoys, SMIK, Chicco, Mothercare,
Chudo-ostrov, Mikki
Монобрэнд,
Multibrand
Books and music КS, Bukva Multibrand
Accessories, jewelry, giftsAccessorize, Attribute, DEKA, Diva, LuxOptika, Pandora, Seta Décor, Swarovski,
Swatch, WOW shop, Secunda, Frey Wille
Monobrand,
Multibrand
Food courtMcDonald's, Pechena Kartoplya, SushiYa, Shokoladnitsa, Yapona Hata, L’kafa, Mafia,
Kredens, Salateira, Plushka, Kryla, France.ua, Souperia, Big BurgerMonobrand
Telecom & Electronics Ringoo, Allo, Citrus, Samsung, Lenovo, iStudioMonobrand,
Multibrand
Ukrainian fashion brandsKrisstel, Public&Private, U Dress, VOVK, Uamade, Natali Bolgar, Jasmine, Goldi, Arber,
A.Tan by Andre Tan, A TAN MANMonobrand
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Retail Chains: Franchising and Direct Market Entry
• In Q4 2016, almost 70% of the demand for quality retail spaces in Kiev was from fashion segment tenants.
• The demand from foreign retailers was comparable to the local brands’ demand.
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Franchising Direct market entry
Retail gallery operators
Marks & Spencer GAP
Inditex
Zara
Nike Accessorize Oysho
Massimo DuttiGuess OGGI
Bershka
Promod Tommy Hilfiger Stradivaius
Uterqüe
Befree Orsay
LPP Group
Reserved
Cropp Town
United Colors of
BenettonKaren Millen
Mohito
Sinsay
Mothercare
DesigualHouse
Cacharel Baltika Group Monton
Mosaic
Love Republic Oasis New Yorker, Adidas, Mango
Luxury retailers
Dolce & Gabbana, Valentino, Saint Laurent,
Philipp Plein, Burberry, DiorLouis Vuitton, Chanel
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
International Newcomers to Kiev Retail Market
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In Q4 2016, the following new brands entered the Kiev market: women's clothing and bags Uterqüe (Spain), menswear Eduard
Dressler (Germany), children's clothing Elsy (Italy), Calvin Klein Underwear (USA), women's clothing Liu Jo (Italy), men's
trousers Hiltl (Germany).
Overall in 2016, more than twenty international brands entered the Kiev retail market, representing Turkey, Germany, Italy,
Egypt, Spain, USA.
2015 Future2014
Entered the market Plan to enter
Pedro del Hierro, Star Burger,
Intimissimi, Keddo, Calzedonia,
Lamoda
(e-commerce), Bottega Verde,
Glossip, Paul, Alberta Ferretti,
H.E. by Mango,
Prenatal Milano, Peacocks,
Egersund Seafood, Vapiano,
SAL Y LIMON
2016
Betty Barclay, ERES, Chloé,
Mango Megastore (Violeta), adL,
Silenza, Bosco Sport , Marella,
Idexe, Stefanel, Super Step,
Naturel by Silenza, Naf Naf, Yves
Saint Lauren, Dior, Suiteblanco,
Coqui, Maestrami, Stefanel,
Hunkemöller,
Menya Musashi Ramen Shop,
Galvanni, Eterna, Sanetta
Maje, Ravin Jeans, Reima,
Isabel Garcia, Rodenstock,
Armani Exchange, Silvian Heach,
KIWE, Sandro, Atos Lombardini,
Steiff, Falke, Falke Kid’s, Tezenis,
Converse, ROECKL, Uterqüe,
Eduard Dressler, Michael Kors,
Elsy, Calvin Klein Underwear, Liu
Jo, Hiltl, Imperial, Replay, N.UNO
Porter
Cortefiel, CCC, Falconeri,
Mavi, Defacto, Decathlon,
Koton, Intersport, FLO,
Cafe Barbera, Papa
John’s, VAISMANN,
BALDESSARINI
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Vacancy Rate Dynamics, Kiev
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In Q4 2016, the vacancy rate in Kiev reached 12.1%, 7.5 ppt higher than in Q3 2016. The vacancy increase was due to the market
entering of two new quality facilities with GLA of 138,500 sq m.
There is a strong demand for retail space in quality shopping centres from local retailers, activity of foreign operators is picking up.
When excluding the new completions in Q4 2016, the vacancy rate would have been 4.1%.
Vacancy rate dynamics
*The map shows the average vacancy rate in districts, as well as the dynamics of change in the last quarter. There are no quality shopping centres in Podol district.
Vacancy rate by district*
11.5%
0.1%
1.3%
2.1%
3.0%6.5%
50.0%
1.1%
9.6%
12.1%
4.6%4.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
The average market vacancy rate
Vacancy rate without shopping centres completed in Q4
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Prime Base Rent: European Benchmarks*
16
In 2016, prime base rent grew by 8% and reached 780 USD/ sq m/ year (65 USD/ sq m/ month). The increase was due to the
recovery of retail turnover, steady demand for premium locations, and seasonal factors.
In Q4 2016, there were no significant changes in rental rates.
*Excluding VAT and OPEX.
780
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500
Zagreb
Amsterdam
Belgrade
Kiev
Milan
Budapest
Bucharest
Rome
Athens
Madrid
St. Petersburg
Lisbon
Prague
Oslo
Berlin
Warsaw
Brussels
Paris
London
Moscow
USD/ sq
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Base Rents by Tenant Format, Q4 2016
• The practice of renegotiation of rental agreements between landlords and tenants still exists in the market but has become less common.
• Individual arrangements for fixing the exchange rate at a level below the rate of the NBU were almost completely replaced by the new lease agreements based on the market rental rate in foreign currency. Fixing rental rates according to NBU rate for the first 3-6 months is less used.
• For the shopping gallery, new contracts usually include step-rent for the first 2-3 years.
• Landlords became more attentive to retailer turnover data control.
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*Excluding VAT and OPEX.
Profile Area, sq mRental rate, USD/sq
m/month*
Rental rate, USD/sq
m/year*
Hypermarkets >7 000 8-12 100-140
Supermarkets 2 000 – 5 000 9-13 110-160
Convenience store 600 –2 000 10-15 120-180
White and brown > 1 000 6-10 70-120
600 – 1 000 8-12 100-140
Cinema > 2 000 6-10 70-120
Entertainment 1 000 – 3 000 5-8 60-100
Food courts 40 -90 40-50 480-600
Restaurants 250 – 600 15-25 180-300
Perfume and cosmetics250 – 450 40-50 480-600
50 – 100 50-60 600-720
Sporting goods> 1 500 8-10 100-120
< 300 20-30 240-360
Goods for children
> 800 8-12 100-140
250 – 600 15-20 180-240
70 – 120 20-30 240-360
Household goods < 2 000 6-10 70-120
Fashion and apparel
1 000 – 2 000 8-12 100-140
300 – 600 15-25 180-300
150 – 300 25-35 300-420
100 – 150 35-45 420-540
JLL – Kiev Retail Market Overview, Q4 2016
Source: JLL
Standard Lease Terms for Retail Premises
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Lease length Retail gallery: 3-5 years.
Mini-anchor tenants: 5-7 years.
Anchor tenants: 10-15 years.
Payment terms
Fixed.
Combined (3-5% of turnover for anchor tenants; 10-15% - retail gallery).
Rarely only % of turnover.
Individual rental agreements may apply.
Rental deposit 1-2 months.
For fashion anchors: bank guarantee for 1-3 months or a security deposit.
For key anchors: food chains and cinemas: for 2-6 months or a security deposit.
Rental indexation USD (rarely EUR): 3-5%.
Rent increases may be pre-agreed for several years, afterwards a СРI indexation is
applied.
OPEX USD60-110 per sq m/ year.
Other payments VAT 20%.
© Copyright 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be used solely for the purposes of
evaluating this proposal. All such documentation and information remains the property of Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be kept confidential. Reproduction of any part of this document is
authorised only to the extent necessary for its evaluation. It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorisation of Jones Lang LaSalle. All information contained
herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof
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