Hamil - Abdelkebir Khatibi and the Post Colonial Prerogative
Khatibi lecture cov.uni
-
Upload
rahman-khatibi -
Category
Engineering
-
view
42 -
download
0
Transcript of Khatibi lecture cov.uni
Introduction to Computer-based Flood Risk Modelling in the UK and Overseas –
Coventry University
• Visiting Lecturer on• Catchment Hydrology, Hydraulics and River Flood Modelling• Coventry University
Dr Rahman KhatibiGTEV-ReX29 November 2016
For the best outcome, you may download the presentation and run it in the slide show mode.
• Outputs of construction Industry: – In 2014 the turnover was £115 Bn– In 2013, the UK GDP of £1.6 Tn– So the turnover was 7% of the GDP
• Development Projects: – Facilitated by a planning system– Run by Local Planning Authorities (LPA) of Local Authorities– “Decision-making by participation”– The system is plan-led through National Planning Policy
Framework (NPPF)• Scope of Planning by LPA in the year ending June 2014:– granted 350,200 permissions– 88% of decisions ended up by granting permission
1. Setting the scene (1)
Environment Prudent use of natural resources and effective protection of the
environment
SocietySocial progress which
recognises the needs of everyone
Economy Maintenance of high and stable levels of economic growth and employment
1. Setting the scene (2)
Sustainability Market-pulled Hydraulic Systems Science-pushed Educational Topics
• Water supply systems• Water treatment works• Reticulations systems• Rising mains• Gravity mains
• Irrigation drainage• Irrigation supply systems
Market-pulled: water systems:
• Flood Risk Management systems• Erosion/sediment problems• Water quality problems
• Drainage systems• Sewerage systems• Sewage treatment works• SuDS• Other drainage systems
Modelling Bridges the gap
• Pipes: rigid, elastic• Control valves• Intakes/reservoirs • Surge suppression units• 2D Floodplains• HD Rivers/• Diffusion Analogy• Kinematic waves• Discharge routing• Reservoirs• A host of control units• Inflows/outflows• Hydrological cycle• Hydrology• Modelling software
1. Setting the Scene (3)
Science-pushed:Hydraulics /hydrology
•Basic concepts •Conservation of momentum•Conservation of mass •Forces, hydrostatics•Pipe flows•Pipe control units•Boundary layers•Fluid machines•Open channel flows•Control in O.C.•Sediment transport•Groundwater flows•Flood estimation •River Engineering•Coastal engineering•Modelling•Modelling software
Computer-based Flood Risk Modelling - summary
Setting the scene1. Outline history of modelling2. Purpose/needs3. Types of modelling• A full overview• Model building• Information contents
4. Steady/unsteady conditions5. Functions and usage of models6. Business drivers for modelling
2. Outline history of modelling
•Advent of Computers•Rise of software engineering•Increasing data•Modelling practice
Fundamental thinking of 18th-19th CenturyIntellectual Capital of hydraulic Traditional component hydraulics
Tapping on the intellectual capitalBy a fury of simplified methods • Empirical hydraulics
• Design and operations• Hydrology
• Component analysis
18th-19th
Century
1900
19501960
1980
1990
2000
Beck: risk increasing
Intelligent clients
ModellingModelling and
modelling
Emergence of flood risk management
Turbulence modelling3D
2D1DData driven models
• Models are tools for decision-making• Without models: solutions at risk of being arbitrary, ad hoc• With models: solutions can be defensible
Without models: the onus is on you With the models: the onus is on the models and on modelling practices
• Model defensibility: models must be defensible by:– Employing best practice– Having systematic checks by independent modellers– Putting in place QA procedures and TQM
2. Purpose/needs
3. Overview of types of modelling (1)
Considering Flooding Risk from all sources
•0D
•1D
•1D+
•2D-
•2D
•2D+
•3D
Surfacewater models
Fluvial models(channels + floodplains
Coastal models(tides + surges)
Meteorological modelsGlobal, regional, local
Groundwater models
Sewers models
Reservoir failures models
Hydrologicmodels
Erosion
Data
Remote sensingSpace scale
Time scale
Survey dataSurvey data
LiDAR
Gauges
Modelling systems
ModularityInterfaces
Time scale
Space scale
Trigger eventsOvertopping Breaching
BlockageInundation
Land use
RuralUrban
Greenfield
Semi-urban
Brownfield
New development
Flow regimesSubcriticalSupercritical
Kinematic Role waves
Data-driven models•Regression,•Machine-learning•AI (ANN, GA, GEP, FL) Distributed Models
•Design modelling •Real-time forecasting•Flood modelling•Low-flow modelling•Operations modelling
01/05/2023 University of Glamorgan: - Rahman Khatibi
1D Reservoir
Medium Resolution
2D Domain 22D Domain 3
Low Resolution
Contours
Extended 1D Sections
Contours
High Resolution
2D Domain 1
Embedded 1D Model
Flood Relieve
Channels
Road
Schematise and divide the system into domains
3. Types of modelling – model Building (2)
Hydraulic Units• Basic concepts• Forces – conservation of
momentum• Storage – conservation
of mass• Pipes: rigid, elastic• Control valves• Intakes/reservoirs • Surge suppression units• 2D Floodplains• HD Rivers/• Diffusion Analogy• Kinematic waves• Discharge routing• Reservoirs• A host of control units• Inflows/outflows• Hydrological cycle• Hydrology• Modelling
3. Types of modelling – model Building (2)
• No equations
• Continuity+ 1-momentum
• Mass balance
• Mass balance + Diffusive FP
• Continuity+ 2-momentum
• Continuity+ 2-momentum + a good solver
• Continuity+ 3-momentum
• Longitudinal variations• Classic 2-stage channels • Attenuating floodplains
• Hydraulic jumps/Roll waves
• Mixing required
• Storage floodplains
• To model lateral variations
• Urban, coastal, floodplains
• Slow overland flows
• Fast spreading• 0D
• 1D
• 1D+
• 2D-
• 2D
• 2D+
• 3D
3. Types of modelling – 1D/2D/3D & integrated modelling (3)
• There are many brands of models now • For open channels these include: FEH, HEC-RAS, Flood Modeller Pro,
TUFLOW, JFlow, MIKE-21, InfoWorks• We use one brand but this should change as we should extract
consensus from models
Order 1 Order 2 Order 3KEY
Rules of thumb
Heuristic rules
Blackbox modelling
Conceptual modelling
Hydrological Routing
Kinematic routing
Hydrodynamic routing
Models with updating
Empirical approaches
Uncertainty
Reliability
Models used for Rivers
Reso
lutio
n, re
liabi
lity,
info
rmati
on co
nten
t
Overall Attributes
Individual Attributes
Uncertainty, Susceptibility to problem
s
3. Types of modelling – information/uncertainty (4)
• Steady state: No variations in time dimension – a special case of unsteady flows– Some problems can be approximated to steady flows– gives fast and conservative solutions
• Unsteady state: Variations in time dimension– Most of the problems are unsteady– Modelling unsteady flows is an involved activity– Simulating unsteady flows give a deeper insight into the
complex flow processes• Real-time modelling
4. Steady/unsteady conditions
• Each solution by modelling is an anecdote and good to gain an insight into processes
• Models do more: tools of risk-based decision-making:• So, what is risk? (hazard * its probability)
5. Functions and usage of models
Model uses:• Study system operations• Carry out design works• System performance under extreme conditions• Performance under proposed developments• Assess impacts of changes (EIA and ES)• Study conditions under predefined events• Detect acts, which have triggered adverse
conditions
5. Functions and usage of models
• The European Flood Directive• The European Water Directive • The EIA Directive (85/337/EEC)• Flood and Water Act 2010• Replacements should come in due
course
• National Planning Policy Framework(NPPF) – England
• Technical Advice Note 15 (TAN15) – Wales• Scottish Planning Policy (SPP) 7
6. Modelling Business Drivers: Legal Drivers (1)
• Flood Risk Management Plans
• River Basin Management Plans
• Catchment Flood Management Plans (CFMP)- EA• Shoreline Management Plans (SMP) – LA• Surface Water Management Plans (SWMP) – EA?• Regional Flood Risk assessment (RFRA) – LA• Strategic Flood Risk Assessment (SFRA) - LA
6. Modelling Business Drivers: Competent Authorities (2)
• Flood Maps (Zone 1, Zone 2, Zone 3)• Flood hazard maps:
– the flood extent;– water depths or water level, as appropriate;– flow velocity
Approx. Location of the Site
6. An example of information issued by competent authorities (3)
• A masterplan:– the process, to undertake analysis & prepare
strategies– the proposals, to plan for major change– Includes buildings, spaces, movement strategy, land use– focussed on sustainable principles
• A masterplan is a sophisticated model and shows, among many things, ways of integrating communities into the built/natural environments
6. Modelling Business Drivers: Masterplanning (4)
6. Examples of Masterplanning (5)
6. Setting the scene: Quantitative Modelling (6)
6. Examples of Masterplanning – Urban Flooding (7)
6. Examples of Masterplanning: SuDS (8)
Conclusion• Open eyes from the past to the future• A critical mind as everything changing• Academic education and industrial training go hand-in-hand• Prior to 2000: deterministic modelling, implying certainty and the
delivery of truth• Since 2000: models regarded as information tools –uncertainty estimation becoming integral to modelling–Models serve as tools of risk-based decision-making
• There are many brands of models now (FEH, HEC-RAS, Flood Modeller Pro, TUFLOW, JFlow, MIKE-21, InfoWorks)•We use one brand but this should change and we should extract
consensus from models
Thank you andSee you later for questions