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Transcript of kenya referendunm poll
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2010. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.
The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property of
Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under
the understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidence
and that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, including
communication to any third party without Synovates express prior consent and/or
payment of related professional services fees in full.Synovate Formerly Steadman
Referendum Baseline
Public Opinion Poll
June 2010
Date Published: 4th June 2010
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Methodology
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2Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Objective of the Survey
The objective of the survey was to assess voters views on issues
around the draft constitution including voting intentions and
prediction of the likely outcome of the referendum.
To inform and act as a planning guide for the various stakeholders
involved in the referendum process and to inform public debate
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3Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Poll Methodology
Dates of pollingDates of polling May 22nd May 28th
Sample SizeSample Size 6017 respondents
Sampling methodologySampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
UniverseUniverseRecently registered voters by IIEC
Data collectionData collection
methodologymethodology
Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the
household level
Sampling errorSampling error +/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level
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4Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Sample Distribution
Province NationalPopulation
distribution
(over 18 years)
Distribution ofregistered voters
(IIEC Register)
Survey Sampledistribution
Nairobi 10% 10% 10%
Central 14% 16% 16%
Coast 9% 8% 8%
Eastern 16% 16% 16%
North Eastern 3% 2% 2%
Nyanza 14% 14% 14%
Rift Valley 24% 24% 24%
Western 11% 11% 11%
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Media coverage on
draft constitutional
matters
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6Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Print
15%
Radio
71%
TV
14%
Overall : 6,746 articles across 9 print titles, 36 radio channels and 5 Tv channels (May 2010)
Constitutional issues media coverage (1st to 30th May 2010)
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7Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
2%
6%
6%
6%
10%
11%
13%
20%
24%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
ICC investigations
IIEC by-elections
Party politics
TJRC issues
National Prayer Day
Public Opinion Polls
Draft publication issues
Draft constitution debates
Voter Registration
Kadhi courts ruling
Civic Education
"No" Campaigns
General Referendum Issues
"Yes" Campaigns
Share of coverage
Constitutional issues coverage on TV (1st to 30th May 2010)
TV Basis; 925 items across 5 Tv channels
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Familiarity with the
proposed Draft
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9Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
A lot, 10%
Something, 25%
A little, 51%
Nothing, 13%
How much do you know about the draft constitution?
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10Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
What are the sources of what you know about the constitution?
1%
2%
5%
17%
17%
19%
31%
32%
43%
58%
Employer
Professional associations
Internet
Politicians
Religious leaders
Personally read draft
Print media
Friends/relatives
Television
Radio
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11Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
43%
28%
Male Female
41%
33%
Urban Rural
% indicating know a lot/somethingabout the draft
% indicating know a lot/somethingabout the draft
How much would you say you know about the draft
constitution? By Gender and Setting
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12Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
45%
39%38% 36% 34% 33%
31%
21%
Nairobi Nyanza Western Eastern Central Rift Valley Coast North
Eastern
% indicating Know a lot/somethingabout the draft
How much would you say you know about the draft
constitution? By Province
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Views on the draft
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14Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
How Decisive are the voters?
Decisive, 77%
Indecisive, 19%
Will not Vote, 4%
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15Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
Yes to approve,
57%
No to reject,
20%
Undecided,
19%
Will not Vote,4%
When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote
YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?
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16Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=4374 (those who have made up their
minds)
When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote
YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?
Yes to
approve, 74%
o to
reject, %
Based on those who have made uptheir minds on how they will vote
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17Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=1141 (those will vote NO)
Reasons why you would vote against the proposed
constitution
2%
2%
2%
2%
4%
4%
6%
32%
37%
55%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Religious leaders are against the draft
The Bill of Rights
No confidence on the draft
It doesn't benefit the common man
Issues around Devolution
Need further amendments
Little or no information on the draft
The land clause
Inclusion of Kadhi courts
The abortion clause
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18Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
% Indicating will vote yes to approve
Support for the draft by the level of familiarity
74%
61%
53%
34%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
A lot Something A little Nothing
Base: n=3233 (those indicated will vote Yes to
approve)
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19Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
In you view is the draft constitution a very good constitution that does
not need to be amended, a good constitution that needs a few minor
amendments, an acceptable constitution that needs major amendments
or a bad constitution that should be rejected altogether?
Very good
constitution that
does not need to be
amended
27%
A good constitution
that needs a fewminor amendments
50%
An acceptable
constitution that
needs major
amendments
7%
A bad constitution
that should be
rejected altogether
6%
Don't know
10%
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Support for the draft
by support for
political personalitiesand political parties
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21Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
41%
13% 12%9% 7%
3% 1% 1%
Raila
Odinga
Kalonzo
Musyoka
Mwai
Kibaki
William
Ruto
Martha
Karua
Uhuru
Kenyatta
Charity
Ngilu
Eugene
Wamalwa
If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote
for if that person was a presidential candidate?
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22Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: Supporters of each personality
Support for the draft by political personalities followers.
Supporters of: Yes toapprove Notoreject Undecided Willnotvote
Raila Odinga (n=2490) 74% 8% 12% 5%
Mwai Kibaki (n=708) 57% 13% 22% 8%
Martha Karua (n=431) 53% 17% 19% 12%
Uhuru Kenyatta (n=163) 50% 25% 16% 9%
Kalonzo Musyoka (n=778) 44% 26% 22% 9%
William Ruto (n=515) 10% 68% 17% 5%
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23Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
Which political party do you feel closest to?
46%
24%
9%
4% 2% 1% 1%
11%
ODM PNU ODM Kenya Narc Kenya Narc KANU Others None
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24Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: Supporters of each Party
65%55%
50%45%
17% 16%19%
30%
13%
21%18% 17%
5% 9%
13%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
ODM PNU Narc Kenya ODM Kenya
Yes to approve No to reject Undecided Will not vote
n=2750 n=1472 n=253 n=556
Support for the draft by political parties followers.
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25Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
88%
76%
65%61%
58%54%
41% 39%
4%7% 11%
16%12%
11%
29%33%
8%
14%18%
14%
21% 20% 19% 20%
0% 2%7% 9% 9%
15%
10% 8%
North
Eastern
Nyanza Western Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Rift Valley
Yes to approve No to reject Undecided Will not vote
Support for the draft by Provinces.
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Religious leaders andthe draft
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27Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
Should the religious leaders take sides, eitherYES orNo
on the constitutional referendum?
Yes, 48%
No, 40%
Not sure, 12%
Yes = 50%,
No 35%,
Not sure 16%
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28Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
Which side would you like the religious leaders to support?
Yes side, 24%
No side, 17%
Not s re, 1 %
Neither side, 40%
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29Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
The target population for this survey was all Kenyans who have recently registered with the IIEC as voters. A sample size of 6017
respondents was drawn and distributed across the country based on the voters register by regions as per the IIEC. The sample was
distributed across 71 districts.
The maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this polls sample size is +/- 1.6 % margin at 95%
confidence level. A randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensured that
districts with a higher voter population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation.
The interviews were done face to face at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random
sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. These face-to-face in-home interviews
are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions .
The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected
within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in
the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member
randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member
selection.
The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll
questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is
no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork
Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers calls, while the
field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing
Poll Methodology
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30Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
For further details Please contact:
George Waititu
Tel: + 254 20 4450 196
Mobile: +254 722206980
George.waititu@synovate .com