Kafli 13 í Chase… Spálíkön
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Transcript of Kafli 13 í Chase… Spálíkön
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 1
Kafli 13 í Chase…
Spálíkön Eftirspurn og stýring eftirspurnar
Spár sem ekki byggja á reiknilíkönum
Hreyfið Meðaltal (“Moving Average”, MA)
Veldisjöfnun (“Exponential Smoothing”, ES)
Veldisjöfnun með leitni (“Trend”) og árstíðasveiflum (“Seasonals”)
Einföld aðhvarfsgreining (“Regression”)
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 2
Eftirspurn,óháð eða háð
A
Óháð eftirspurnFullunnar vörur
B(4) C(2)
D(2) E(1) D(3) F(2)
Háð eftirspurn:Hráefni, íhlutir,Millivörur o.s.frv.
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 3
Óháð eftirspurn Virk afstaða, stýrð eftirspurn, forvirkar
aðgerðir til að hafa áhrif á eftirspurn og árstíðasveiflur.
Óvirk afstaða, finna leiðir til að svara sveiflum í eftirspurn.
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 4
Tegundir spáaðferða Án reiknilíkana (“Qualitative, Judgmental”):
markaðskannanir, Delphi-aðferðin, …
Reiknilíkön:– Tímaraðagreining (“Time Series Analysis”)– Fylgni-líkön (“Causal Models”)– Hermilíkön (“Simulation Models”)
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 5
Helstu grunnþættir eftirspurnar Meðaltal á gefnu tímabili Leitni (“Trend”) Árstíðasveiflur (“Seasonal elements”) Hægar hagsveiflur (“Cyclical elements”) Hendingar (“Random variations”) Sjálffylgni (“Autocorrelation”)
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 6
Grunnþættir eftirspurnar
1 2 3 4
x
x xx
xx
x xx
xx x x x
xxxxxx x x
xx
x x xx
xx
xx
x
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
x
x
Ár
Sal
a
Árstíðasveifla
Línuleg
leitni
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 7
Spáaðferðir án reiknilíkana
Grasrótaraðferð
Markaðskannanir
Fundarsamþykkt
Mat stjórnenda
Söguleg samlíking
Delphi aðferðin
“Qualitative”
aðferðir
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 8
Delphi spáaðferðinl. Veljið sérfróða þátttakendur úr ýmsum
áttum, þ.e. þverfagleg samsetning .2. Allir spá án þess að hittast, t.d. með
tölvupósti, og senda einnig rökstuðning.3. Takið niðurstöðurnar saman og dreifið þeim
meðal þátttakenda e.t.v. með nýjum spurningum.
4. Aftur samantekt, spáin fínpússuð og spurningar endursendar.
5. Þrep 4 endurtekið ef með þarf. Dreifið lokaniðurstöðum meðal þátttakenda.
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 9
Tímaraðagreining Tímaraðalíkön spá um framtíðina með því að
byggja á fyrri gögnum. Val á líkani fer eftir m.a.:
1. Tímabili sem spá á fyrir2. Hvaða gögn eru til3. Hvaða nákvæmni er krafist4. Hve miklu má kosta til5. Hvaða þekking er til staðar
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 10
Hreyfið meðaltal (“Moving Aver.”, MA)
F = A + A + A +...+Ant
t-1 t-2 t-3 t-n
Byggir á þeirri forsendu að meðaltal segi vel fyrir um framtíðina (engar árstíðasveiflur né leitni).
Formúlan fyrir hreyfið meðaltal:
Ft = Spá (“Forecast”) fyrir næsta tímabil N = Fjöldi tímabili í meðaltali (valin stærð)A t-1 = Raungögn (síðasta tímabil)
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 11
Dæmi um hreyfið meðaltal, MA:
Week Demand1 6502 6783 7204 7855 8596 9207 8508 7589 892
10 92011 78912 844
F = A + A + A +...+Ant
t-1 t-2 t-3 t-n
Spurning: Hverjar eru spátölurnar fyrir MA(3) og MA(6), þ.e. þriggja og sex vikna hreyfin meðaltöl?
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Week Demand 3-Week 6-Week1 6502 6783 7204 785 682.675 859 727.676 920 788.007 850 854.67 768.678 758 876.33 802.009 892 842.67 815.33
10 920 833.33 844.0011 789 856.67 866.5012 844 867.00 854.83
F4=(650+678+720)/3
=682.67F7=(650+678+720 +785+859+920)/6
=768.67
MA(3) og MA(6) útreikningar::
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12
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 13
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Week
Dem
and Demand
3-Week
6-Week
Takið eftir að spálíkanið verður íhaldssamara (minni sveiflur, meiri útjöfnun) eftir því sem N er stærra.
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 14
Vegið hreyfið meðaltal (“Weighted Moving Average”, WMA)
F = w A + w A + w A +...+w At 1 t-1 2 t-2 3 t-3 n t-n
w = 1ii=1
n
Í stað þess að allar eldri tölur vigti jafnt þá eru valdar vogtölur á þær, venjulega minni vigt eftir því sem tölurnar eru eldri.
wt = vogtala fyrir tímabil t (summan = 1)
WMA(N) formúlan:
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 15
Dæmi um WMA
Vogtölur: t-1 .5t-2 .3t-3 .2
Week Demand1 6502 6783 7204
Hver er spáin fyrir viku 4?
Hæst vogtala á yngstu töluna!
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 16
Lausn á WMA(3) dæminu
Week Demand Forecast1 6502 6783 7204 693.4
F4 = 0.5(720)+0.3(678)+0.2(650)=693.4
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 17
Veldisjöfnun (“Exponential Smoothing”, ES)
Vogtölur hæstar á yngstu gögn og lækka síðan eftir veldisfalli eftir því sem gögnin eru eldri (prófið að
setja inn fyrir Ft-1 og svo fyrir Ft-2 og þannig koll af kolli) .
Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1) = valinn spástuðull (“smoothing constant”)
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 18
Dæmi um veldisjöfnun:Week Demand
1 8202 7753 6804 6555 7506 8027 7988 6899 775
10
Gerið spá með veldisjöfnun fyrir tímabilin 2-10, veljið =0.10 og =0.60?
Gerið ráð fyrir að F1=D1
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 19
Week Demand 0.1 0.61 820 820.00 820.002 775 820.00 820.003 680 815.50 820.004 655 801.95 817.305 750 787.26 808.096 802 783.53 795.597 798 785.38 788.358 689 786.64 786.579 775 776.88 786.61
10 776.69 780.77
Lausn á dæmi um veldisjöfnun:
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 20
Dæmi um veldisjöfnun, graf:
500
600
700
800
900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Week
Dem
and Demand
0.1
0.6
Takið eftir að spálíkanið verður íhaldssamara (minni sveiflur, meiri útjöfnun) eftir því sem alfa er minna..
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 21
MAD mælikvarðinn á spáfrávik
MAD = A - F
n
t tt=1
n
1 MAD 0.8 standard deviation1 standard deviation 1.25 MAD
Best ef MAD er nálægt 0, þá stendur spálíkanið sig vel
Einnig er hægt að nota formúluna:MADt = ABS(At-1 - Ft-1) + (1- MADt-1
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 22
MAD dæmi:
Mán Sala Spá1 220 n/a2 250 2553 210 2054 300 3205 325 315
Reiknið MAD útfrá eftirfarandi spáfrávikum:
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 23
MAD dæmi, lausn:
MAD = A - F
n=
404
= 10t t
t=1
n
Mán Sala Spá Abs frávik1 220 n/a2 250 255 53 210 205 54 300 320 205 325 315 10
40
Ath. að MAD segir aðeins til um meðalfrávik.
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 24
Spormerki (“Tracking Signal”, TS) TS er mælikvarði á það hvort kerfisbundin
skekkja er í spánni, þ.e. hvort spálíkanið er venjulega annað hvort yfir eða undir raungögnum.
Hægt er að nota TS sem stýririt (“Statistical Process Control”) til að fylgjast með spálíkaninu. Einnig er hægt að nota TS til að stýra vali á alfa.
TS formúlan er:
TS =RSFEMAD
=Running sum of forecast errors
Mean absolute deviation
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 25
Aðhvarfsgreining (“Regression”)
Yt = a + bx0 1 2 3 4 5 x (Time)
YLínuleg aðhvarfsgreining fellir beina línu sem best að safni púnkta. a
Yt er spáin eða háða breytan, a er skurðpúnktur línunnar við Y-ásinn, og b er halli línunnar.
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 26
Mat á stikunum a og b:
a = y - bx
b = xy - n(y)(x)x - n(x2 2
)
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 27
Dæmi um aðhvarfsgreiningu
Week Sales1 1502 1573 1624 1665 177
Gerið línulega spá með aðhvarfsgreiningu fyrir eftirfarandi gögn:
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Week Week*Week Sales Week*Sales1 1 150 1502 4 157 3143 9 162 4864 16 166 6645 25 177 8853 55 162.4 2499
Average Sum Average Sum
b =xy - n(y)(x)x - n(x
=2499 - 5(162.4)(3)
=
a = y - bx = 162.4 - (6.3)(3) =
2 2
) ( )55 5 9
6310
6.3
143.5
Fyrsta skref er að reikna út stikana a og b.
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28
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Yt = 143.5 + 6.3x
135140145150155160165170175180
1 2 3 4 5
Tímabil
Sala
Raungögn
Spá
Spálíkanið er þá: 29
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
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Veldisjöfnun með leitni (“Forecast Including Trend”, FIT)
Ft = FITt-1 + (At-1 - FITt-1) Tt = Tt-1 + (Ft - FITt-1) FITt = Ft + Tt
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 31
Dæmi um FIT:
F1 = 100 T1 = 10 A1 = 115 FIT1 = 100 + 10 = 110 F2 = 110 + 0,2(115-110) = 111 T2 = 10 + 0,3(111- 110) = 10,3 FIT2 = 111 + 10,3 = 121,3
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
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ninth edition 32
Árstíðasveiflur (“Seasonals”) Tímaröðin greind í grunnþætti:
– Reikna út vísitölur fyrir árstíðasveiflur St
– Jafna sveiflunum út: At/ St
– Reikna leitni Tt með FIT eða aðhvarfsgrein. Spá hverjum þætti um sig:
– Spá fyrir um leitni Tt
– Margfalda árstíðasveiflur og leitni: Tt* St
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
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Ár Fjórð. Tímabil Sala Meðaltal Vísitölur JafnaðX Y S Yd
1998 1 1 600 2.267 0,816 7362 2 1.550 3.050 1,097 1.4123 3 1.500 2.700 0,972 1.5444 4 1.500 3.100 1,115 1.345
1999 1 5 2.400 0,816 2.9432 6 3.100 1,097 2.8253 7 2.600 0,972 2.6764 8 2.900 1,115 2.600
2000 1 9 3.800 0,816 4.6592 10 4.500 1,097 4.1003 11 4.000 0,972 4.1174 12 4.900 1,115 4.393
Alls: 78 33.350 12,000 33.350Meðaltal: 6,5 2.779 2.779
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Operations Management For Competitive Advantage
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition 34
AðhvarfsgreiningJafnað Lína Spá
X Yd X2 X*Yd T T*S1 736 1 736 897 7322 1.412 4 2.825 1.239 1.3603 1.544 9 4.632 1.582 1.5364 1.345 16 5.379 1.924 2.1465 2.943 25 14.713 2.266 1.8486 2.825 36 16.948 2.608 2.8627 2.676 49 18.734 2.950 2.8668 2.600 64 20.799 3.292 3.6739 4.659 81 41.933 3.635 2.964
10 4.100 100 41.004 3.977 4.36411 4.117 121 45.290 4.319 4.19612 4.393 144 52.715 4.661 5.19913 33.350 650 265.707 5.003 4.08114 2.779 5.346 5.86615 b= 342,2 5.688 5.52616 a= 555,0 6.030 6.726
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SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0,93R Square 0,86Adjusted R Square0,85Standard Error 512,83Observations 12
ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 16743631 16743631 63,66447 1,2E-05Residual 10 2629980 262998Total 11 19373612
CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%Intercept 555,0 315,6271 1,758358 0,109194 -148,276 1258,247 -148,3 1258,2X Variable 1 342,2 42,88528 7,979002 1,2E-05 246,6274 437,7361 246,6 437,7
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
0 5 10 15
X Variable 1
Y
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ninth edition 36
Spá með leitni og árstíðasveiflum
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lína T
Spá T*S
Sala