IW$¸+-h k &Ùpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/HK_RES/STOCK/2015/7/31/f708a... · 7/31/2015 · Closing Price...
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本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 华宸未来 使用。1 kuxsmi:7635kuxe Diversified Financials | Company Research Bringing China to the World SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 31 July 2015 买入 维持 盈利增长预告 惠理集团 (806:HK) Market Data: July, 30 Closing Price (HK$) 9.38 Price Target (HK$) 12.71 HSCEI 11,274 HSCCI 4,386 52-week High/Low (HK$) 18.10/5.34 Market Cap (USD Mn) 2,411 Market Cap (HK$ Mn) 18,688 Shares Outstanding (Mn) 1,847 Exchange Rate (RMB-HK$) 1.27 Price Performance Chart: Source: Bloomberg Analyst Yi Zhang A0230514090002 BED999 [email protected] (8621)23297818×7275 Related Reports "VALUE PARTNERS GROUP (806:HK) – Bull Market Beneficiary" April 23,2015 "VALUE PARTNERS GROUP (806:HK) – Performance-driven results" Mar 13,2015 "VALUE PARTNERS GROUP (806:HK) – Growth fund" Jan 6,2015 "VALUE PARTNERS GROUP (806:HK) – Pay for performance" Nov 10,2014 Financial summary and valuation 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue (HK$m) 1027.58 1599.45 4214.68 4144.22 5187.50 YoY (%) 57.71 55.65 163.51 -1.67 25.17 Net income (HK$m) 381.25 801.40 2093.03 2294.45 3459.89 YoY (%) 3.19 110.21 161.17 9.62 50.79 EPS (HK$) 0.22 0.45 1.18 1.30 1.96 Diluted EPS (HK$) 0.22 0.45 1.18 1.30 1.96 ROE (%) 13.00 20.62 46.54 42.94 50.77 Dividend yield (%) 1.14 2.43 5.05 5.53 8.34 P/AUM 0.20 0.17 0.11 0.09 0.07 PE (x) 42.84 20.65 7.92 7.23 4.80 PB (x) 5.82 4.27 3.69 3.11 2.44 Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised. 正面盈利预告。惠理集团近期公布 2015 年上半年正面盈利预告，预计归属母公司的净利润将 录得大幅增长，是上年度同期 1.406 亿港元的三倍以上。净利润的主要增长来自于管理费及 表现费的收入增加，以及公司的初投资本及于旗下基金投资之公平值收益和已变现收益所致。 我们预计公司主要的七个产品资产净值在年底将平均高于 2014 水位线的 15%。 强劲增长的管理规模。截至 2015 年六月底，惠理集团共有 178 亿美元的资产管理规模，同比 增长 76%，同期认购净额达到 32 亿美元。资产管理规模的快速增长受益于 A 股市场的交易额 的增长和 H 股的反弹。我们预测惠理集团的资产管理规模将在 2015 年底同比增长超过 50%至 194 亿美元。 优秀的管理业绩。惠理集团的资产净值（NAV）于 2015 年上半年迅速增长。截至 2015 年 6 月 30 日，公司主要的七个产品资产净值平均高于 2014 水位线的 16%。我们适当将公司全年产品 资产净值平均增长率从 16%调低至 15%%，用以反映大中华股市近期出现的大幅波动对于公司 下半年业务前景带来的不稳定性。 中港基金互认。 惠理作为亚洲主要的资产管理公司之一，长期深耕于大中华区的资本市场。公 司总部设于香港，在中国大陆，中国台湾地区和中国香港特别行政区均设有持牌基金公司，在 该行业尚属首例。我们相信惠理集团将受益于中国市场正在进行的资本市场改革，包括最新 推出的中港基金互认计划，香港证监会日前已经批准公司的惠理价值基金重新注册在香港， 以符合基金互认的条例。很快会由中国证监会批准来享受中港基金互认的红利。另外，公司近 期与中国代销方达成协议来合作大陆地区的基金销售。公司指导来自于大陆地区的资产管理 业务将于 15 年底达到整体销售额的 30%，对比 2014 年末的 13%。 维持“买入”评级。我们维持 2015 年 AUM 预测在 194 亿美元（同比增长 50.0%），预测 2016 年 AUM 246 亿美元（同比增长 26.8%），2017 年 AUM 307 亿美元（同比增长 24.8%）。因此我 们下调 2015 年 EPS 预测从 1.22 港元至 1.18 港元（同比增长 159.9%），来反映减速增长的产 品资产净值，因此我们将目标价格从 16.5 港元下调至 12.7 港元，对应 0.15x 2015E P/AUM。 目标价距离最新收盘价 35.4%的上升空间，我们维持“买入”评级。
Transcript of IW$¸+-h k &Ùpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/HK_RES/STOCK/2015/7/31/f708a... · 7/31/2015 · Closing Price...
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 华宸未来 使用。1
kuxsmi:7635kuxe
Diversified Financials | Company Research Bringing China to the World
SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com
31 July 2015
买入
维持
盈利增长预告
惠理集团 (806:HK) Market Data: July, 30
Closing Price (HK$) 9.38
Price Target (HK$) 12.71
HSCEI 11,274
HSCCI 4,386
52-week High/Low (HK$) 18.10/5.34
Market Cap (USD Mn) 2,411
Market Cap (HK$ Mn) 18,688
Shares Outstanding (Mn) 1,847
Exchange Rate (RMB-HK$) 1.27
Price Performance Chart:
Source: Bloomberg
Analyst Yi Zhang A0230514090002 BED999 [email protected]
(8621)23297818×7275
Related Reports "VALUE PARTNERS GROUP (806:HK) – Bull Market Beneficiary" April 23,2015 "VALUE PARTNERS GROUP (806:HK) – Performance-driven results" Mar 13,2015 "VALUE PARTNERS GROUP (806:HK) – Growth fund" Jan 6,2015
"VALUE PARTNERS GROUP (806:HK) – Pay for performance" Nov 10,2014
Financial summary and valuation 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Revenue (HK$m) 1027.58 1599.45 4214.68 4144.22 5187.50 YoY (%) 57.71 55.65 163.51 -1.67 25.17 Net income (HK$m) 381.25 801.40 2093.03 2294.45 3459.89 YoY (%) 3.19 110.21 161.17 9.62 50.79 EPS (HK$) 0.22 0.45 1.18 1.30 1.96 Diluted EPS (HK$) 0.22 0.45 1.18 1.30 1.96 ROE (%) 13.00 20.62 46.54 42.94 50.77 Dividend yield (%) 1.14 2.43 5.05 5.53 8.34 P/AUM 0.20 0.17 0.11 0.09 0.07 PE (x) 42.84 20.65 7.92 7.23 4.80 PB (x) 5.82 4.27 3.69 3.11 2.44 Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures,
stock options and warrants, were exercised.
正面盈利预告。惠理集团近期公布 2015 年上半年正面盈利预告，预计归属母公司的净利润将
录得大幅增长，是上年度同期 1.406 亿港元的三倍以上。净利润的主要增长来自于管理费及
表现费的收入增加，以及公司的初投资本及于旗下基金投资之公平值收益和已变现收益所致。
我们预计公司主要的七个产品资产净值在年底将平均高于 2014水位线的 15%。
强劲增长的管理规模。截至 2015年六月底，惠理集团共有 178亿美元的资产管理规模，同比
增长 76%，同期认购净额达到 32 亿美元。资产管理规模的快速增长受益于 A 股市场的交易额
的增长和 H 股的反弹。我们预测惠理集团的资产管理规模将在 2015 年底同比增长超过 50%至
194 亿美元。
优秀的管理业绩。惠理集团的资产净值（NAV）于 2015年上半年迅速增长。截至 2015 年 6月
30 日，公司主要的七个产品资产净值平均高于 2014水位线的 16%。我们适当将公司全年产品
资产净值平均增长率从 16%调低至 15%%，用以反映大中华股市近期出现的大幅波动对于公司
下半年业务前景带来的不稳定性。
中港基金互认。惠理作为亚洲主要的资产管理公司之一，长期深耕于大中华区的资本市场。公
司总部设于香港，在中国大陆，中国台湾地区和中国香港特别行政区均设有持牌基金公司，在
该行业尚属首例。我们相信惠理集团将受益于中国市场正在进行的资本市场改革，包括最新
推出的中港基金互认计划，香港证监会日前已经批准公司的惠理价值基金重新注册在香港，
以符合基金互认的条例。很快会由中国证监会批准来享受中港基金互认的红利。另外，公司近
期与中国代销方达成协议来合作大陆地区的基金销售。公司指导来自于大陆地区的资产管理
业务将于 15 年底达到整体销售额的 30%，对比 2014年末的 13%。
维持“买入”评级。我们维持 2015年 AUM预测在 194亿美元（同比增长 50.0%），预测 2016
年 AUM 246 亿美元（同比增长 26.8%），2017年 AUM 307 亿美元（同比增长 24.8%）。因此我
们下调 2015 年 EPS 预测从 1.22 港元至 1.18 港元（同比增长 159.9%），来反映减速增长的产
品资产净值，因此我们将目标价格从 16.5港元下调至 12.7港元，对应 0.15x 2015E P/AUM。
目标价距离最新收盘价 35.4%的上升空间，我们维持“买入”评级。
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 华宸未来 使用。2
kuxsmi:7635kuxe
Diversified Financials | Company Research Bringing China to the World
SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com
The company does not hold any equities or
derivatives of the listed company
mentioned in this report (“target”), but then
we shall provide financial advisory services
subject to the relevant laws and
regulations. Any affiliates of the company
may hold equities of the target, which may
exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject
to the relevant laws and regulations. The
company may also provide investment
banking services to the target. The
Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within
its sphere of knowledge. The clients may
contact [email protected] for
relevant disclosure materials or log into
www.swsresearch.com under disclosure
column for further information. The clients
shall have a comprehensive understanding
of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the
last page.
Positive profit alert. Value Partners guides positive net profit in 1H15, at more than three times
the amount seen (HK$140.6m) in 1H14 of. We attribute the strong results to rising assets under
management (AUM), thus contributing to high management fee income equivalent to c.0.8%
of AUM. Most of Value Partner’s funds will register the 15% performance fees at the
yearend, while its Taiwan fund and managed accounts will be collected during the middle
of the year.
Strong AUM growth. Following a net inflow of US$3.2bn in 1H15, Value Partners AUM totalled
US$17.8bn (+76% YoY). The rapid growth in AUM is in line with the rebound of H-share
valuations and increasing domestic sales. We expect AUM to grow 50% YoY to US$19.4bn by
end-15E.
Decent performance. The net asset value (NAV) of major Value Partners funds expanded rapidly
in 1H15. By end-June, NAV in seven of the company’s eight major funds rose above the 2014
NAV watermark by an average 16%. We lower our full-year average NAV growth forecast from
16% to 15% to reflect the recent A-share tumble and flat H-share market performance.
Mutual recognition scheme (MFC). As the only listed fund management group headquartered
in Greater China with licensed fund management firms in mainland China, Taiwan and Hong
Kong. Value Partners is well positioned to benefit from the current capital market reform. The
company has obtained SFC approval for the redomicile of its Classic Fund to Hong Kong in a bid
to comply with MFC regulations. The final application with shortly be filed with the China
Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). In addition, Value Partners finalised its contract with
a master agent and in the process of signing up agreements with distributors in China. Value
Partners guided domestic AUM to account for 30% of net sales in 15E (vs 13% in 2014).
Maintain BUY. We maintain our forecast AUM of US$19.4bn in 15E (+50.0% YoY), US$24.6bn in
16E (+26.8% YoY) and US$30.7bn in 17E (+24.8% YoY). In order to reflect our forecast of
decelerating NAV growth in 15E, we revise down our EPS forecasts from HK$1.22 to HK$1.18 in
15E (+159.9% YoY). We lower our target price from HK$16.5 to HK$12.7, representing 0.15x 15E
P/AUM. With 35.4% upside, we maintain our BUY rating.
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 华宸未来 使用。3
kuxsmi:7635kuxe
Diversified Financials | Company Research Bringing China to the World
SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com
AUM expansion
As of end-June 2015, Value Partners’ AUM totalled US$17.8bn (+76.2% YoY), following a net inflow of US$3.2bn over the six-month period. The rapid growth in AUM is in line
with the rebound of H-share valuations and increasing domestic sales. We attribute a proportion of the new investment to the company’s new products, which saw unexpected rapid growth in AUM. At present, 80% of the AUM is invested in H-shares, 10% in A-shares and 10% in other markets. We expect AUM to grow 50.0% YoY to US$19.4bn by end-15E.
Fig 1: AUM reached US$17.8bn by 1H15
Source: Company data, SWS Research
Fig 2: Net subscriptions reached US$3.2bn by 1H15
Source: Company data, SWS Research
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本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 华宸未来 使用。4
kuxsmi:7635kuxe
October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research
Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 1
January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research
July 31,2015 Diversified Financials | Company Research
Decent performance Value Partners recently issued a positive profit alert, guiding net profit of more than three times the amount (HK$140.6m) recorded in 1H14. We attribute the strong results to the rising AUM, thus contributing to high management fee income equivalent to c.0.8% of AUM. Most of Value Partner’s funds will register the 15% performance fees at the yearend, while its Taiwan fund and managed accounts will be collected during the middle of the year. Of the company’s total AUM, c.80% is held within SFC-authorised funds, while the remaining 20% is within managed accounts and non-SFC authorised funds, which do not charge the 15% performance fee.
The NAV of major Value Partners funds expanded rapidly in 1H15. By end-June, NAV in seven of the company’s eight major funds rose above the 2014 NAV watermark by an average 16%. We lower our full-year average NAV growth forecast from 16% to 15% to reflect the recent A-share tumble and flat H-share
market performance. We remain relatively positive towards the annual performance of Value Partner’s funds, given that it had already reduced exposure to the A-share market before the correction began. For example, A-shares now account for c.10% of the VP Classic Fund.
Fig 3: Details of managed funds in 1H15
Code Fund name AUM
(US$m) Currency
NAV Management
fee Performance
fee Launch
Date
VLPAPAI KY VP Classic Fund 2413.5 US$ 316.63 0.75% pa. 15% of profit 01/04/1993
VALASHY KY VP High-Dividend Stocks Fund 4239.8 US$ 83.47 1.25% pa 15% of profit 02/09/2002
VPCHIGC KY VP China Greenchip Fund limited 801.6 HK$ 66.85 1.5% pa 15% of profit 27/03/2007
VAPAICB KY VP China Convergence Fund 681.8 US$ 181.21 1.25% pa 15% of profit 14/07/2000
VAPAICM KY VP Chinese Mainland Focus Fund 179.3 US$ 50.24 1.25% pa 15% of profit 27/11/2003
VTAIWAN KY VP Taiwan Fund 74.9 US$ 16.05 1.25% pa 15% of profit 03/03/2008
VPCAARM HK VP China A-Share Select Fund 168.4 Rmb 14.58 1.5% pa 15% of profit 16/10/2014
VPGCPUA KY VP Greater China High Yield Income Fund 1711.0 US$ 12.43 1.5% pa NA 27/03/2012
Own branded funds (SFC authorised) 10440.0
Other own branded funds (non SFC authorised)
2774.0
Others 4586.0
Total 17800.0
Source: Company data, SWS Research
Fig 4: NAV of major funds by 1H15
Source: Bloomberg SWS Research, Grey highlight denotes historical high watermarks for each fund
NAV (US$) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
30th
June
2015
2015E
VP Classic Fund (A unit) 80 84 98 139 196 102 186 224 186 212 235 267 317 315
VP High-Dividend Stocks Fund 20 22 24 32 47 25 45 57 50 63 68 75 83 83
VP China Greenchip Fund (HK$) 19 19 22 31 43 18 40 55 41 51 60 61 67 67
VP China Convergence Fund 36 37 38 71 111 61 114 138 107 117 128 147 181 176
VP Chinese Mainland Focus Fund 10 11 13 19 29 16 30 37 30 34 37 41 50 49
VP Taiwan Fund - - - - - 6 10 12 11 13 15 15 16 16
China A-Share Select Fund (Rmb) 12 15 14
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 华宸未来 使用。5
kuxsmi:7635kuxe
October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research
Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 2
January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research
July 31,2015 Diversified Financials | Company Research
Fig 5: NAV and watermark level of performance receiving funds
Source: Bloomberg, SWS Research
Fig 6: Relative performance vs. benchmarks
Source: Bloomberg, SWS Research
Fig 7: NAV of major funds by 1H15
China Greenchip
Fund Classic Fund Convergence Fund
High-Dividend Stocks Fund
Mainland Focus Fund
Hong Kong 39% 17% 22% 23% 26%
H shares 30% 32% 35% 21% 30%
Red Chips 15% 16% 10% 7% 13%
China A shares 11% 10% 30% 10% 29%
China B shares 6% 5% 5% 5%
Cash -3% 6% -3% -5%
Others 3% 15% 1% 39% 2%
Source: Company data, cash refers to net cash on hand excluding cash for collaterals and margins
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MSCI Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) Relative Performance VP High-Dividend Stocks Fund-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
01
/2
00
3
07
/2
00
3
01
/2
00
4
07
/2
00
4
01
/2
00
5
07
/2
00
5
01
/2
00
6
07
/2
00
6
01
/2
00
7
07
/2
00
7
01
/2
00
8
07
/2
00
8
01
/2
00
9
07
/2
00
9
01
/2
01
0
07
/2
01
0
01
/2
01
1
07
/2
01
1
01
/2
01
2
07
/2
01
2
01
/2
01
3
07
/2
01
3
01
/2
01
4
07
/2
01
4
01
/2
01
5
07
/2
01
5
01
/2
01
6
MSCI China Relative Performance VP Chinese Mainland Focus Fund
-200%-100%
0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%
01
/2
00
3
07
/2
00
3
01
/2
00
4
07
/2
00
4
01
/2
00
5
07
/2
00
5
01
/2
00
6
07
/2
00
6
01
/2
00
7
07
/2
00
7
01
/2
00
8
07
/2
00
8
01
/2
00
9
07
/2
00
9
01
/2
01
0
07
/2
01
0
01
/2
01
1
07
/2
01
1
01
/2
01
2
07
/2
01
2
01
/2
01
3
07
/2
01
3
01
/2
01
4
07
/2
01
4
01
/2
01
5
07
/2
01
5
01
/2
01
6
MSCI China Relative Performance VP China Convergence Fund
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
01
/2
00
3
07
/2
00
3
01
/2
00
4
07
/2
00
4
01
/2
00
5
07
/2
00
5
01
/2
00
6
07
/2
00
6
01
/2
00
7
07
/2
00
7
01
/2
00
8
07
/2
00
8
01
/2
00
9
07
/2
00
9
01
/2
01
0
07
/2
01
0
01
/2
01
1
07
/2
01
1
01
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01
2
07
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01
2
01
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01
3
07
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01
3
01
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01
4
07
/2
01
4
01
/2
01
5
07
/2
01
5
01
/2
01
6
HSI Index Relative Performance VP China Greenchip Fund -60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
01
/2
00
8
07
/2
00
8
01
/2
00
9
07
/2
00
9
01
/2
01
0
07
/2
01
0
01
/2
01
1
07
/2
01
1
01
/2
01
2
07
/2
01
2
01
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01
3
07
/2
01
3
01
/2
01
4
07
/2
01
4
01
/2
01
5
07
/2
01
5
01
/2
01
6
MSCI Taiwan Relative Performance VP Taiwan Fund
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 华宸未来 使用。6
kuxsmi:7635kuxe
October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research
Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 3
January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research
July 31,2015 Diversified Financials | Company Research
Business development As the only listed fund management group headquartered in Greater China with licensed fund management firms in mainland China, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Value Partners is well positioned to benefit from the current capital market reform. The company has obtained SFC approval for the redomicile of its Classic Fund to Hong Kong in a bid to comply with MFC regulations. The final application with be filed with the CSRC shortly. In addition, Value Partners finalised its contract with a master agent and in the process of signing up agreements with distributors in China. Value Partners guided domestic AUM to account for 30% of net sales in 15E (vs 13% in 2014).
Fig 8: Value Partners distribution network
Source: Company data, SWS Research
Valuation We use P/AUM and return on AUM to provide a basis for our peer comparison, since the PE method is too volatile owing to the correlation between the stock market and the company's earnings. We maintain our forecast AUM of US$19.4bn in 15E (+50.0% YoY), US$24.6bn in 16E (+26.8% YoY) and US$30.7bn in 17E (+24.8% YoY). In order to reflect our forecast of decelerating NAV growth in 15E, we revise down our EPS forecasts from HK$1.22 to HK$1.18 in 15E (+159.9% YoY). We lower our target price from HK$16.5 to HK$12.7, representing 0.15x 15E P/AUM. With 35.4% upside, we maintain our BUY rating.
Fig 9: Value Partners P/AUM, 2007-15
Source: Bloomberg, SWS Research
02468
101214161820
20
07
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20
08
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1
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/5/2
1
HK
$
PX_LAST 0.10x 0.15x 0.20x
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 华宸未来 使用。7
kuxsmi:7635kuxe
October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research
Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 4
January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research
July 31,2015 Diversified Financials | Company Research
APPENDIX
Fig 1: Forecast Income Statement
HK$m 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Turnover 688.94 651.58 1027.58 1599.45 4214.68 4144.22 5187.50
Management fees 491.43 461.80 603.87 748.04 1199.70 1523.62 1904.52
Performance fees 139.53 112.09 316.99 659.24 2699.33 2285.43 2856.79
Other fees 57.97 77.69 106.72 192.17 315.66 335.17 426.19
Other income 24.76 54.12 45.21 30.05 31.55 33.13 34.78
Distribution and advisory fee expenses
166.94 178.97 252.58 370.44 1103.61 361.26 397.39
Distribution fee expenses 160.63 175.32 248.53 366.38 1099.61 1539.45 1539.45
Advisory fee expenses 6.31 3.65 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06
Total operating income 546.76 526.73 820.20 1259.05 3142.63 3816.08 4824.90
Compensation and benefit expenses 181.99 197.05 267.73 402.51 646.09 1075.05 704.85
Bonus 69.50 68.24 125.06 235.82 443.33 833.47 416.734
Wages, salaries and allowances 102.63 123.62 132.51 160.09 192.11 230.53 276.64
Operating lease rentals 11.97 12.94 13.47 21.37 22.44 23.56 24.74
Other expenses 59.17 62.38 70.85 85.57 128.35 134.77 141.51
Total operating expenses 253.13 272.38 352.04 509.45 796.88 1233.38 871.10
EBIT 293.63 254.35 468.16 749.60 2345.74 2582.70 3953.80
Other gains/(losses) - net -84.03 176.93 -9.67 160.42 100 100 100
Operating profit 209.60 431.29 458.50 910.02 2445.74 2682.70 4053.80
Share of profit of an associate -0.19 -16.15 1.18 20.63 16.65 16.66 16.66
Share of profit/(loss) of joint ventures -2.35 0.00 0.00
Profit before tax 207.07 415.14 459.68 930.65 2462.39 2699.35 4070.46
Tax expense -42.30 -45.66 -78.43 -129.25 -369.36 -404.90 -610.57
Profit for the year 164.77 369.48 381.25 801.40 2093.03 2294.45 3459.89
Attributable to:
Equity holders of the Company 167.30 376.36 384.32 804.18 2095.81 2297.45 3462.89
Minority interests -2.53 -6.88 -3.08 -2.78 -2.78 -2.78 -2.78
Source：Company data, SWS Research
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 华宸未来 使用。8
kuxsmi:7635kuxe
October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research
Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 5
January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research
July 31,2015 Diversified Financials | Company Research
Fig 2: Forecast Balance Sheet
HK$m 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Assets
PPE 7.95 8.13 7.75 13.75 4.91 5.16 5.42
Intangible assets 1.58 52.67 54.40 32.41 58.43 59.60 60.79
Investment properties 58.74 78.00 102.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Investment in an associate 0.71 0.00 90.94 102.65 101.57 106.65 111.98
Interest in joint ventures 6.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Investment securities/available-for-sale financial assets 660.11 959.56 953.14 889.62 990.07 1039.58 1091.56
Deferred tax assets 0.00 0.33 0.40 3.80 0.80 0.96 1.15
Other assets 1.85 13.53 13.99 8.70 9.41 9.60 9.79
Loan portfolio, net 8.02 141.03 102.83 104.89 106.98
Total non-current assets 737.43 1112.21 1230.64 1191.96 1268.02 1326.42 1387.66
Investments/financial assets at fair value through profit or loss
164.92 21.08 240.86 178.93 196.82 216.51 238.16
Investments held-for-sale 245.90 29.53 30.12 30.72 31.34
Fees receivable 654.29 61.43 179.07 693.60 710.94 728.71 746.93
Loans portfolio, net 0.34 171.09 176.23 181.51 186.96
Amounts receivable on sale of investments 17.75 164.22 254.94 260.03 265.23 270.54
Prepayments and other receivables 16.89 19.61 33.47 41.42 42.25 43.10 43.96
Time deposit 250.17 250.17 250.17 250.17
Cash and cash equivalents 216.51 1315.35 888.09 1551.00 1628.55 1709.98 1795.48
Total current assets 30.72 1435.22 1751.95 3170.68 3295.11 3425.93 3563.53
Total assets 728.71 2547.43 2982.59 4362.64 4563.13 4752.35 4951.19
Liabilities
Accrued bonus 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total non-current liabilities 43.10 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00
Accrued bonus 250.17 69.50 68.24 235.51 130.11 132.71 135.37
Distribution fees payable 1709.98 23.93 28.92 77.02 57.02 58.16 59.32
Amounts payable on purchase of investments 3425.93 135.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other payables and accrued expenses - unsecured 76.48 21.20 17.87 36.11 19.68 20.07 20.47
Current tax liabilities 73.50 8.79 15.35 64.82 1026.52 909.35 772.41
Dividends payable
Total current liabilities 374.13 123.42 265.41 476.43 1233.33 1120.29 987.57
Total liabilities 374.16 123.42 265.41 476.43 1233.33 1120.29 987.57
Equity
Share capital, share premium and treasury shares 866.72 889.21 889.21 1336.98 889.21 889.21 889.21
Other reserves 150.17 153.67 181.65 191.19 200.75 210.78 221.32
Retained earnings 1401.05 1287.00 1561.56 2281.42 2144.95 2428.56 2740.13
proposed dividends 280.35 101.80 280.83 404.07 433.42 454.98 487.77
others 1120.70 1185.20 1280.73 1877.36 1711.53 1973.58 2252.36
Non-controlling interests 94.13 84.75 76.62 94.90 103.51 112.96
Total equity 2417.93 2424.01 2717.18 3886.21 3329.80 3632.06 3963.62
Source：Company data, SWS Research
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 华宸未来 使用。9
kuxsmi:7635kuxe
October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research
Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 6
January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research
July 31,2015 Diversified Financials | Company Research
Information Disclosure： The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any financial interest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation reviewed. Undertakings of the Analyst I (We) am (are) conferred the Professional Quality of Securities Investment Consulting Industry by the Securities Association of China and have registered as the Securities Analyst. I hereby issue this report independently and objectively with due diligence, professional and prudent research methods and only legitimate information is used in this report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have never been, am not, and will not be compensated directly or indirectly in any form for the specific recommendations or opinions herein. Disclosure with respect to the Company The company is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. The company is a qualified securities investment consulting institute approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission with the code number ZX0065. Releasing securities research reports is the basic form of the securities investment consulting services. The company may analyze the values or market trends of securities and related products or other relevant affecting factors, provide investment analysis advice on securities valuation/ investment rating, etc. by issuing securities research reports solely to its clients. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact [email protected] for the relevant disclosure materials or log into www.swsresearch.com for the analysts' qualifications，the arrangement of the quiet period and the affiliates’ shareholdings.
Introduction of Share Investment Rating Security Investment Rating：
When measuring the difference between the markup of the security and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of this report, we define the terms as follows: Trading BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% upside over a 6-month period. BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% upside over a 12-month period. Outperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10-20% upside over a 12-month period. Hold: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10% downside to 10% upside over a 12-month period. Underperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10-20% downside over a 12-month period. SELL: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% downside over a 12-month period. Industry Investment Rating: When measuring the difference between the markup of the industry index and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of the report, we define the terms as follows: Overweight：Industry performs better than that of the whole market；
Equal weight： Industry performs about the same as that of the whole market；
Underweight：Industry performs worse than that of the whole market.
We would like to remind you that different security research institutions adopt different rating terminologies and rating standards. We adopt the relative rating method to recommend the relative weightings of investment. The clients’ decisions to buy or sell securities shall be based on their actual situation, such as their portfolio structures and other necessary factors. The clients shall read through the whole report so as to obtain the complete opinions and information and shall not rely solely on the investment ratings to reach a conclusion. The Company employs its own industry classification system. The industry classification is available at our sales personnel if you are interested. HSCEI is the benchmark employed in this report.
Disclaimer： This report is to be used solely by the clients of SWS Research Co., Ltd. ( subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, hereinafter referred to as the “Company”). The Company will not deem any other person as its client notwithstanding his receipt of this report. This report is based on public information, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not warranted by the Company. The materials, tools, opinions and speculations contained herein are for the clients’ reference only, and are not to be regarded or deemed as an invitation for the sale or purchase of any security or other investment instruments. The clients understand that the text message reminder and telephone recommendation are no more than a brief communication of the research opinions, which are subject to the complete report released on the Company’s website (http://www.swsresearch.com). The clients may ask for follow-up explanations if they so wish. The materials, opinions and estimates contained herein only reflect the judgment of the Company on the day this report is released. The prices, values and investment returns of the securities or investment instruments referred to herein may fluctuate. At different periods, the Company may release reports which are inconsistent with the materials, opinions and estimates contained herein. Save and except as otherwise stipulated in this report, the contactor upon the first page of the report only acts as the liaison who shall not provide any consulting services. The clients shall consider the Company’s possible conflict of interests which may affect the objectivity of this report, and shall not base their investment decisions solely on this report. The clients should make investment decisions independently and solely at your own risk. Please be reminded that in any event, the company will not share gains or losses of any securities investment with the clients. Whether written or oral, any commitment to share gains or losses of securities investment is invalid. The investment and services referred to herein may not be suitable for certain clients and shall not constitute personal advice for individual clients. The Company does not ensure that this report fully takes into consideration of the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individual clients. The Company strongly suggests the clients to consider themselves whether the opinions or suggestions herein are suitable for the clients’ particular situations; and to consult an independent investment consultant if necessary. Under no circumstances shall the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein forms an investment recommendation to anyone. Under no circumstances shall the Company be held responsible for any loss caused by the use of any contents herein by anyone. Please be particularly cautious to the risks and exposures of the market via investment. Independent investment consultant should be consulted before any investment decision is rendered based on this report or at any request of explanation for this report where the receiver of this report is not a client of the Company.
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 华宸未来 使用。10
kuxsmi:7635kuxe
October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research
Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 7
January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research
July 31,2015 Diversified Financials | Company Research
The Company possesses all copyrights of this report which shall be treated as non-public information. The Company reserves all rights related to this report. Unless otherwise indicated in writing, all the copyrights of all the materials herein belong to the Company. In the absence of any prior authorization by the Company in writing, no part of this report shall be copied, photocopied, replicated or redistributed to any other person in any form by any means, or be used in any other ways which will infringe upon the copyrights of the Company. All the trademarks, service marks and marks used herein are trademarks, service marks or marks of the Company, and no one shall have the right to use them at any circumstances without the prior consent of the Company. This report may be translated into different languages. The Company does not warrant that the translations are free from errors or discrepancies. This report is for distribution in Hong Kong only to persons who fall within the definition of professional investors whether under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the laws of Hong Kong) (the “SFO”) or the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules (Chapter 571D of the laws of the Hong Kong under the SFO). This report is for distribution in the United Kingdom only to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) order 2001 (as amended) (the “Order”) or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“High Net Worth Companies, Unincorporated Associations, etc”) of the Order (All such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”). This document is directed only at Relevant Persons. Other Persons who are not Relevant Persons must not act or rely upon this document or any of its contents.
Distribution in Singapore If distributed in Singapore, this report is meant only for Accredited Investors and Institutional Investors as defined under Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act of Singapore. If you are not an Accredited Investor or an Institutional Investor, you shall ignore the report and its contents. The Singapore recipients of the report are to contact the Singapore office of Shenyin Wanguo Singapore Private Limited at 65-6323-5208, or 65-6323-5209 in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the report.
