Itf winter materie prime outlook 2014
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Transcript of Itf winter materie prime outlook 2014
![Page 1: Itf winter materie prime outlook 2014](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062320/55a056531a28abbf218b4755/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
ITForum Winter – Rimini 15 novembre 2013
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• Evidente ipervenduto
• Eventuale trading range 92,50-97,50
• Possibile ulteriore discesa fino a zona 91-93
• Supporti di lungo termine 85-87,50
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Scorte Usa Ritorno al contango
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• Tasso di esaurimento 75-80% nel secondo anno.
• EROI (EROEI) rapporto fra energia ricavata ed energia utilizzata per produrla.
• Shale oil: Olio di scisto.
• Tar sands: sabbie bituminose.
• Più dell’80% della produzione aggiuntiva sembra essere redditizia con un prezzo superiore a $70/bar. (Cit. Maugeri, Oil: The NextRevolution)
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Verso i $100/bar Verso appiattimento curva
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• Supporto lungo termine 3,125
• Supporto medio termine 3,50, violato e rimbalzo da 3,375
• Resistenza lungo term. 4,45
• Poco probabile il superamento di 3,875.
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• Una curva difficile da cavalcare.
• Differenza primi 6 mesi: 1,9%
• Per chi investe in ETC rollyield negativo ogni mese.
• Negli ETC posizioni short con vento a favore.
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• Resta ingabbiato tra 1.250 e 1.350.
• Panorama negativo sino a 1.450
• Supporto lungo termine 1.180
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Fonte: HK Census Stat. Dept., Zero Hedge
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• Trend resta ribassista.
• Panorama positivo al superamento di 23
• Supporto a 20,50; probabile violazione sino a 19
• Resistenza lungo periodo 28
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• Panorama positivo solo al superamento resistenza 3,40
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• Ancora in contango.
• Da osservare appiattimento.
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Attacco a quota 700 fallito Curva flat => backwardation?
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Il peggio è forse passato? Curva accentua contango
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Forte reazione a quota 1.250 Backwardation in esaurimento?
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Una cioccolata amara Nuovamente verso il contango
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Acquazzone dopo l’incendio Backwardation in formazione
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10 anni di caffè Contango accentuato
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Mazziero Research@2013 – Distribuzione libera citando la fonte.Lo studio è rivolto a un pubblico generico e non individuato; ognuno è
personalmente responsabile delle proprie scelte in materia di investimenti.
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