Ises 2013 day 3 - professor mike sandiford (professor, university of melbourne) - crossroads to a...

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ENERGY IN the sun ”burnt” country

subtITLE“on Mountains, Carbon PAper & Kryder’s law”

20 year halving

20 year DoUBLING

“the black decade”

GFC

WERE WE NEED TO BEGDP GROWTH

> EMISSIONS Growth

GDP GROWTH < EMISSIONS GROWTH

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GFC

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production

consumption

ProDUction20 Tonnes Per CAP.

1.3 x NorWAY GAS+OIL ENERGY CONTENT

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ENERGY IN the sun ”burnt” country

subtITLE“on Mountains, Carbon PAper & Kryder’s law”

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RENEWABLE SCENARIOS - ZCA 2020 (BZE/UoM), UNSW, AEMO

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1 cup of coffee/DAY 21 MILL. peOPLE

10 years-

$270 billion

*18 Kroners

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CARBON TAX, $23/TONNE FROM JULY 2012

C-TAX

DAILy WHOLESALE PRICE LESS C-TAXDAILY WHOLESALE PRICE

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SO, It JUST ain’t Gonna HAPPEN ...

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ON Mountains, CARBON PAPER &KRYDER’s Law

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5 cm/yr50 million years

VIC, 2009MW

5000600070008000900010000

28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan

Temperature

20

25

30

35

40


RR

P ($

/hou

r)

<0

10

100

1000

10000


$ - m

illio

ns

100200300400500600


15 yotta Joules = 50 million years =

energy RATE ==

1025 Joules1015 seconds1010 Watts10 gigaWatts

6000 m, Tibetan Plateau

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electricity demand RECORD - Victoria, Australia, 29/1/2009

~$550 mill.20% annuaL spot

MARKET rEVENUE, ....

GW

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HoMO “Geologicus”

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consumpTION4.5 Tonnes per Capita

what the ?

WERE WE NEED TO BE

2007forward

projection

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PV penetration - SouTH AUS.0 -> 20% of households

2.5% redUCtioN

HOUR OF DAY HOUR OF DAY

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tHE energy-only market AT RISK

$1.1 bILL.

$0.47 bILL.

>50% REVENUEREDUCTION

HOUR OF DAY HOUR OF DAY

the grid &the death spiral

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DEMOCRATIZING MoDernENERGY PROVISION

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ON MOUNTAINS,CARBON PAPER &KRYDER’S LAW,

•1988 - 20 MegaBytes ~ A$2,000

•2013 - 2 TeraBytes ~ A$200

•40,000 reduction in unit cost per byte PER year - for 25 years ...

& the IRRESISTIBLE PULL

RE WILL HELP DEMOCRATIZEENERGY PROVISION

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green chemistry A NEW PRINTING REVOLUTION?

ROLL-OVERGUTENBERG

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..... THIS is not new news

“Most interesting of all ... is the question whether man, by his prodigious combustion

of coal …, is producing more [CO2] than can be eliminated by ordinary natural processes. If this production is excessive, the result eventually may be an unwelcome change in his atmospheric surroundings.“

Arthur Woodward,Foreword to “Man as a geological agent”, 1922.

Ises 2013 day 3 - professor mike sandiford (professor, university of melbourne) - crossroads to a...

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