International economics relations and thailand economic strategy updated 181212
Transcript of International economics relations and thailand economic strategy updated 181212
20 2555
(1)
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– (Globalization Process)
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(Idle resources)
(2)
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2543
(Transition period)
– (Sensitive)
(Improving Competitiveness)
Real Per Capita GDP 1993-2011
Per Capita GDP (at constant prices)
Per Capita GDP (at
constant
prices)
Per Capita GDP Growth 1994-2011
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-
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Per Capita GDP Growth (at constant prices)
Per Capita GDP Growth (at constant
prices)
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(Import Substitution Policy)
(Export-led Growth Policy)
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40 40
Trade to GDP ( constant price)
Potential Productivity Improvement
from Trade
• Efficiency Improvement: better utilization of
resources in the economy
• Technology Improvement: international
business is one of the mechanism lead to
technology transfers
• Economies of Scale: international trade allows
firms to realize benefits from scale buy
producing at a larger scale (moving down the
long-run marginal cost curve)
• (Host Country): Inflows of FDI
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• (Home Country): Outflows of FDI
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Net export
Investment
Government spending
Consumption
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– Mode 4
– ( : Professional services)
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–
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Measuring Comparative Advantage
• Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)
[EXki/TEXi] / [EXkw/TEXw]
• Boston Model
• Diamond Model
• Constant Market Share (CMS)
– World Effect (Global effects)
– Market Effect (Regional/Country effects)
– Product effect
– Competitiveness effect
Boston’s Competitiveness Model
Export
Share
Export
Growth
High Share
Low Growth
High Share
High Growth
Low Share
Low Growth
Low Share
High Growth
2012GDP per
Capita(US$) Scores Ranking
Hong Kong 37,351 100 1
USA 37,691 97.755 2
Singapore 33,529 95.923 4
Malaysia 5,364 84.217 14
China 2,639 75.769 23
Japan 39,578 71.354 27
Thailand 2,698 69.001 30
India 837 63.596 35
Indonesia 1,206 59.499 42
Philippines 1,410 59.271 43
2004-2012
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2012
USA 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
Singapore 2 3 3 2 2 3 3
Hong Kong 3 2 2 3 3 1 1
China 6 8 5 4 4 6 6
Malaysia 4 6 6 5 5 4 4
Japan 5 4 4 6 6 7 7
Thailand 7 5 8 9 7 8 8
India 8 9 7 7 8 9 9
South Korea 9 7 9 8 9 5 5
Philippines 10 10 10 10 10 11 11
Indonesia 11 11 11 11 11 10 10
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–
–
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%
Advanced economies
Emerging and developing economies
: (IMF): 2010
C urrent Account B alances, U S$B n
-900
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
D eveloping Asia + N IEs
U nited S tates
European U nion
Japan
: (IMF): 2010
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(Public Debt)
–
–
• (Wealth) (Income) –
G- Advanced G- Emerging
Low Income
: Fiscal Affair Department Data, IMF
• 2007 607
12.5 GDP Roach, D. 2007)
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–109% 1980
316% 2005 –140
2006 (Wolf 2007a)
• The Liquidity Pyramid – Global liquidity by source of Claim (2009)
Derivatives
Securitized Debt
BankLoansPowe
rMone
y
976% of World GDP
81% of Liquidity
145% of World GDP80% ofWorld GDP7% of
World GDP
12% of Liquidity
6% of Liquidity
1% of Liquidity
•(spot, forward, and swaps) 3.2
• (OTC) 2.1
(BIS 2007)
•(World trade volume) 12
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Num
ber p
er y
ear
Cum
ulat
ive
num
ber
Chart 14
Number of physical RTAs that entered into force since 2000
Source: WTO Secretariat.
ASEAN Economic Integration
Chart II.2
ASEAN ‘Noodle Bowl’
Bloc-to-bloc or bloc-to-country Country-to-country Under negotiation
SAFTA = South Asian Free Trade Agreement; APTA = Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (previously known as Bangkok Agreement, negotiated under UN-ESCAP); BIMSTEC = Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (under negotiation); AFTA = ASEAN Free Trade Area; AEC = ASEAN Economic Community (under negotiation); Trans-Pacific SEP = Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement; NAFTA = North American Free Trade Agreement; TPP = Trans-Pacific Partnership (under negotiation)
Source: Data from Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Agreements Database (APTIAD, www.unescap.org/tid/aptiad/),
[July 2011]. Graphic adapted from an original by Mia Mikic. See Mikic, Mia (2009), ASEAN and Trade Integration, UN ESCAP Staff Working Paper 01/09, 8 April. Some agreements are not included.
NAFTA
TPP
APTA
BIMSTEC
SAFTA
EU
China Japan
EFTA
Australia New Zealand
Chile
Brunei
THAILAND
Malaysia
Indonesia
Laos
Ukraine
India
Bhutan
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
Nepal
Rep. Korea
Maldives
Jordan
Qatar
Bahrain
Panama
US
Mexico Canada
Peru
Cambodia Myanmar
ASEAN
(AFTA, AEC)
Singapore
TRANS-PACIFIC
SEP
Philippines
Viet Nam
Chinese Taipei
Hong Kong, China
Macao, China
AEC 2015:
•(Single market and production base)
•(Improved regional
competitiveness)
•(Regional
economic development equity
•(Global integration)
( )
2548 2558 2568 2578 2588
60
10.3 12.3 15.0 18.0 20.4
65
7.3 8.3 10.5 13.1 15.2
80
1.3 1.7 2.0 2.9 3.8
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CO2
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Ethanol)
Biodeisel)
1.2.
3.4.5.
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Supply)
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Yield)
Demand)
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- 2548 2550 2558 2568 2570
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65.1 66.04 68.98 70.65 70.66
15-
59(
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66.8 67.2 67.1 63.8 62.9
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10.4 10.8 14.2 21.2 22.7
72 73 75 77 na
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• FTA
• ACFTA
TFP
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• Social safety net
52
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•(Physical Infrastructure) Soft Infrastructure ICT
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FDI
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• JTEPA